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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled weather to continue but drier spells too

_________________________________

Wednesday 26 February – Sunday 1 March

Showery in the west, rain and hill snow Thursday

The rest of February will be marked by unsettled weather across the UK with temperatures tending to be near or perhaps a touch below normal. Wet weather will most frequently take the form of scattered showers in western areas, that will occasionally reach central and eastern parts of the country too. Sunny spells will predominate between the showers. The cooler air feeding into the country will mean that showers will tend to be wintry on hills with some small hail reaching lower levels. The main exceptions to this will be Wednesday night and Thursday morning, and again on Friday and Saturday when weather fronts move through some parts of the country. Late Wednesday night, a weak low pressure system will pass through the English Channel and bring some rain to south Wales and southern England.

This rain will likely fall as wet snow on hills for a time but should clear to the east quickly on Thursday morning. Elsewhere the country will see continued sunshine and showers. A stronger frontal system will push into the country on Friday and last into Saturday, bringing widespread heavy rain to most places. Hill snow is likely in Wales, northern England and Scotland as well. Rain will eventually clear away Saturday afternoon with showers returning to western areas by Sunday. With temperatures being a little below average, there is a chance of some frosts overnight. These will be most prominent in Scotland and Northeast England where frosts may be quite sharp some nights. Chilly mornings are expected for all.

Monday 2 March – Sunday 8 March

Rain shifting into southern areas. Cooler.

The unsettled theme to our weather is likely to persist into the first week of March. However, there will be something of a pattern shift regarding where the wettest and windiest weather is situated. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather fronts, is expected to dip south. This will take Atlantic low pressure systems into France and Spain rather than the UK as we've seen in recent weeks. The exception here though is that southern areas of the country will still be clipped by such passing fronts. The wettest and windiest weather will therefore tend to be towards the southwest. However, northern areas won't be completely dry, with showers likely throughout the week, but it will be noticeably less wet than recently.

This southern dip in the jet stream will also bring in some colder polar air from the north, so temperatures are likely to run a bit below average. This effect will be felt the most across the northern half of the UK, but all areas will tend to be a bit cooler than normal. This will bring a risk of overnight frosts and some crisp, chilly mornings. Wintry precipitation is likely for hilly areas too, but it doesn't look quite cold enough for lowland snow to become widespread. It's not all doom and gloom though, as there will likely be some dry spells mixed in too, especially later in the week when high pressure will begin to make its presence felt more strongly.

Monday 9 March – Sunday 22 March

Drying out in the south, rain in the north.

As we move into the middle part of March, we should see a subtle change in the weather pattern. Low pressure areas still look like bringing some wet and breezy weather at times. However, these lows should lift a little further north. This means that the southern half of the UK should gradually see a change to lengthier periods of drier and calmer weather as well as ever milder temperatures.

Rainfall here should become less frequent, allowing river levels to lower and the flooding situation to improve. However, there are signs that frequent westerly flows will affect areas further north. Low pressure looks like it will often linger near Iceland helping to keep things unsettled. These westerly flows will likely bring a persistence of wet and windy weather to the north. Western Scotland, in particular, could stay very wet. Temperatures look like rising through mid-March with a reducing risk of snow.

Further ahead

Confidence is growing, but there is still some uncertainty on how wet the start of March will be. Next time we will hopefully pin down the northern extent of the expectant rain.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Tasmania snow concludes Australia's summer of extremes

Snow has fallen in mountainous parts of Tasmania, rounding out a summer of dramatic weather changes in Australia.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-australia-51654621/tasmania-snow-concludes-australia-s-summer-of-extremes

 

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex

Oh boy   This forecasts certainly one that's been randomly pulled from a hat lol

WWW.DAILYSTAR.CO.UK

The Met Office and BBC Weather have already forecasted "mild" weather to sweep Britain in March, and now it looks like 20C could be on the cards

 

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Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
5 minutes ago, Essex Easterly said:

Oh boy   This forecasts certainly one that's been randomly pulled from a hat lol

spacer.png
WWW.DAILYSTAR.CO.UK

The Met Office and BBC Weather have already forecasted "mild" weather to sweep Britain in March, and now it looks like 20C could be on the cards

 

Not sure how the tabloids are allowed to get away with their forecasts, especially as the content never supports the headline. They also use "Netweather" maps in rather dubious ways.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Chilly and wet start to March
  • Trend towards drier weather
  • Temperatures uncertain

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/02/28/john-hammonds-month-ahead-in-need-of-a-lift/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Stormy end of February but trending drier in March

_________________________________

Saturday 29 February – Sunday 8 March

Stormy weekends bookend a calmer, cool week.

Storm Jorge will be moving across the UK this weekend bringing its full force to bear on Saturday. Strong winds for most of the country with heavy rain in the southwest and hill snow for North England and Scotland will make for quite the stormy day. Conditions will ease somewhat by Sunday, but it will still be quite breezy across the country, and snow is still likely in Scottish hills. Heading into the working week, Storm Jorge will abate as the weather turns a bit more benign for a time. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, will dip south. Lately it has been over the UK giving us plenty of stormy weather in February, but as it heads south it will instead send those weather systems into Spain and Portugal. As a result, it will be a bit drier than it has been recently, but also feeling a bit colder than normal.

Some overnight frosts are likely this week making for some crisp mornings. It won't necessarily be completely dry though, especially in Scotland. Some rain is still likely in the west as well, which may drift into central and eastern areas occasionally. Heading into the first weekend of March, there are increasingly strong signals for yet another storm to move in from the west, bringing some wet and windy weather for the weekend. This would make the fifth consecutive weekend of unsettled weather! Confidence is only medium, however, as some models show a ridge of high pressure instead.

Monday 9 March – Sunday 15 March

Rain shifting north. More settled in the south.

Heading into the second full working week in March in the wake of the anticipated stormy weekend, we expect high pressure to build in by around midweek. This will mean that the weather pattern will change to a more settled, drier, and milder one. Temperatures will tend to be above average, but this will be most pronounced in the South as the high feeds in warmer sub-tropical air.

Low pressure will be pushed away to the north nearer to Iceland, but weak weather fronts will likely still be able to reach into Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland. This will create a bit of a north-south split in the weather, with Wales and England being largely fine and dry while Scotland and Northern Ireland are wetter and windier. However, it will not be nearly as stormy as it has been, as these fronts are likely to be rather weak features.

The main uncertainty this week is how quickly high pressure will become established over the UK. It may take a bit longer than midweek, which would prolong the unsettled and cooler weather. The forecast models haven't quite made their minds up yet on when they might happen, but we do expect high pressure to be in place by the end of the working week.

Monday 16 March – Sunday 29 March

Staying settled at first but fronts returning.

By mid-March high pressure is expected to be firmly in place near or over the UK. The main uncertainty at this point is exactly where the ridge of high pressure will be centred. Settled weather is likely to be the norm for most, but Scotland will continue to see wetter and windier spells from weak fronts. If the high is a bit further west over the North Atlantic, wetter weather in Scotland will be able to creep into eastern areas as well, and a colder north-west wind will predominate. If the high is a bit too far northeast and closer to Scandinavia, this could send a colder easterly wind our direction as well.

However, if the high is centred near the south-west of the UK, as we expect it to be more often than not, the warmer sub-tropical air will be able to reach into the country and keep things on the milder side of average. Early spring high pressure centres can be tricky to forecast, as it is very easy for things to end up quite gloomy and grey under the high pressure. If it tends to be sunnier, temperatures will likely climb well above average. Towards the end of the month, low pressure systems are likely to begin to reach closer into the UK as the high declines. This will bring some wetter and windier weather into the northwestern parts of the country, but also increase the south-west winds, so more sub-tropical air will be fed into Wales and England.

Further ahead

We will take a closer look into the potentially stormy first weekend in March and pin down when drier weather will arrive as we head into meteorological spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Further wet and windy weather for a time.

_________________________________

Wednesday 4 March – Sunday 8 March

Wet and windy at times, most widely this weekend.

The coming days will be unsettled at times. Wednesday will be quite chilly and mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain spreading eastwards through the day. However, some northern areas, including much of Scotland, will stay brighter with just a scattering of showers.

After a wet night for some, Thursday should see any rain clearing eastwards to leave brighter skies. However, it will be quite chilly again. Some north-western parts of the UK will continue to see showers, these wintry over upland areas. For Friday, there is some uncertainty over the details of the forecast but it is likely to be showery for some. The greatest chance of showery rain is in the south and west.

This weekend, strengthening south-westerly winds are likely to be accompanied by more widespread outbreaks of rain. However, the winds will at least bring in milder air with temperatures rising a little above the average. Wettest conditions appear likely to be in the west and north-west of the UK where local flooding is possible.

Monday 9 March – Sunday 15 March

Another often wet and windy week.

Indications are now for a persistence of unsettled weather through the second full week of March. Showers and bands of rain are likely to spread from west to east across the country, bringing above-average rainfall. The rain is likely to be accompanied by strong winds at times, too. Therefore, there will continue to be the risk of local flooding and river levels could continue to be high at times. The greatest likelihood of strong winds appears to be around the middle part of the week.

Despite the unsettled conditions, it is not expected to be particularly cold. Any snowfall should be largely confined to upland areas in the north of the UK. Occasional frosts would be expected, though, under any lengthier clear periods at night. There now appears to be reduced chances of a lengthier drier and calmer period of weather developing through the week. However, a drier and calmer scenario cannot be completely ruled out at this stage.

Monday 16 March – Sunday 29 March

Slowly turning less wet in the south.

The second half of the month should see a slow change to less wet and less windy conditions across England and Wales. Indications are for rainfall amounts to return nearer to normal as the month progresses. There should be some lengthier dry and calmer periods of weather in-between the showers and rain, particularly in the south. However, for Scotland and Northern Ireland, low pressure areas are still likely to pass nearby at times.

This means we are likely to see a persistence of wet and breezy conditions here with rainfall amounts probably still at least a little above average for March. Overall, it is a fairly mild outlook with a lack of any significant or sustained cold weather expected. As always, there is some uncertainty to the forecast. There is a risk that low pressure areas continue to influence larger parts of the UK than expected. This would maintain the wet and windy weather more widely until the end of the month.

Further ahead

As the old proverb goes, 'if March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb'. We will take another look to see if this could be true this month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • More wind and rain
  • Drier trend… eventually
  • Temperatures remain uncertain

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/03/06/john-hammonds-month-ahead-spring-facing-some-headwinds/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Slowly becoming less wet and windy

_________________________________

Saturday 7 March – Sunday 15 March

Often wet and windy this week. Chilly at times.

An unsettled week ahead for many with above-average rainfall. It looks as though western areas will be the wettest with an ongoing risk of local flooding; river levels are likely to be high at times. Saturday will be mostly cloudy and breezy from the west with outbreaks of rain and drizzle, most widely in the north and west. Central and eastern England should see a lot of dry weather on Saturday and only occasional spots of drizzle. On Sunday, it will be brighter but it'll stay breezy with scattered blustery showers, heavy and thundery in places.

Despite being unsettled, this weekend will not be cold with temperatures generally a little above average. Next week will see further showers and lengthier outbreaks of rain spreading from west to east across the UK. The rain will be accompanied by brisk or strong winds at times too. However, after a relatively mild start to the week, it looks like it'll become chillier at times in the second half of the week. This means that the showers are likely to turn wintry at times. Hills in the north and west of the UK could see a little snow.

Monday 16 March – Sunday 22 March

Turning less wet and windy

Currently there is considerable uncertainty over the details of the forecast for the third week of March. However, it looks as though the jet stream will tend to weaken or meander more than it has done recently. This means that it should become less wet and windy. Rain and brisk winds can still be expected at times though but with drier and calmer interludes. The best of any lengthier dry and calm spells will be mostly likely across England and Wales through the latter part of the week. While Western Scotland and Northern Ireland are expected to be a little wetter than the seasonal average. Temperatures are likely to vary either side of the average, with the best of any mild or warmer weather possible in the second half of the week.

Monday 23 March – Sunday 5 April

Wet in the far-north but otherwise a little drier

An old proverb states that March comes 'in like a lion and out like a lamb'. This may come true this year, for some. There are signs that the jet stream could lift a little further north than recently. This means that areas of rain and strong winds should lift further north, too. England and Wales are favoured to have some drier and brighter periods of weather with rain at times. However, the weather in Scotland and Northern Ireland could well stay more like a 'lion' with more frequent rainfall and strong winds here. Winds from the west should keep temperatures mostly near or a little above the seasonal average for most.

For early April, we could well see a similar pattern persisting. The wettest and windiest weather is favoured to be focused over Scotland. Southern and south-western Britain appears to have the best chance of some lengthier dry and calmer periods of weather. As always, there is some uncertainty over the details of the forecast this far out. There is a risk that wet and windy conditions persist more widely.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see if most areas can still expect trend to less wet and less windy weather.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A gradual pattern shift to dry, fine weather

_________________________________

Wednesday 11 March – Sunday 15 March

Wet and windy, with wintry weather in the north.

The rest of this week will continue the unsettled trend from the first part of March, with frequent low pressure systems moving across the UK. This will bring plenty of wet and windy weather to most of the country, although the best of any lengthy dry spells will be in the Southeast. On Wednesday showers in western and northern parts of the country will turn more widespread and push further south and east overnight as a cold front advances.

Northern areas behind the front will be able to tap into a colder source of air that will see rain here turn more wintry from Wednesday night and into Thursday. This will bring snow and ice down as low as 150 metres for parts of Northern England, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. However, by Friday a weak ridge of high pressure will dry things out across the country and bring in some slightly milder air. This will be short-lived unfortunately, as low pressure is expected to move back in by Saturday and into Sunday, bringing rain to most of the country with some windier conditions in Scotland.

Monday 16 March – Sunday 22 March

Becoming more settled with some rain for the north

It looks like we will begin to see a pattern shift from early in the week as high pressure tries to build in from the southwest. However, as the area of higher pressure battles with the low pressure tracks to the north, some weak fronts will still be able to creep into Scotland and Northern Ireland. Midweek looks to be the best time for weak fronts to move in as the ridge of high pressure begins to shift eastwards into Central Europe.

It does not look like much, if any, rain will make it to the southern half of the country though. For the second half of the week including the weekend, a stronger ridge of high pressure is expected to build in from the west, keeping things fairly settled. There is one caveat for southern areas, in that we could see around midweek some rather sharp showers and cloudier skies. However, confidence is still pretty low regarding these downpours. Temperatures are expected to start the week near or a tad below average, but by the end of the week will tend to be above average for most, even Scotland.

Monday 23 March – Sunday 5 April

Dry for most with mild, more spring-like days.

The high pressure that is expected by mid-March should remain overhead or at the very least nearby through the rest of the month and into early April. The result will be a persistence of the more settled weather and some relief from our extremely wet February and early March. The high will likely shift around a bit as low pressure tracks near Iceland struggle to get closer to Europe. So, while it will likely be mostly dry and fine, a few rainy days will be mixed in.

These should be few and far between though, although if you're in northern Scotland you can except more frequent cloudy and wet weather. Temperatures will likely be a bit above average, and with it being late March, things will start to feel decidedly spring-like. Keep an eye on pollen levels for those with allergies, as weather will be favourable for pollen during the second half of the month. As always, there is some uncertainty over the details of the forecast this far out. There is a risk that wet and windy conditions persist more widely if high pressure strays too far away.

Further ahead

We will firm up on the detail and make sure our spring-like weather remains on course.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

We are gonna get blasted.

1253341.jpg
WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

SNOW is forecast across the UK this week, with Met Office warnings in place over two days. But is your area affected? Here are the latest snow maps and...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • High pressure returns
  • Much drier spell begins
  • Temperatures remain uncertain

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/03/13/john-hammonds-month-ahead-finally-dry-weather/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled at first. Drier late March into April

_________________________________

Saturday 14 March – Sunday 22 March

Further rain for a time but settling down later

Over the weekend a weather system is expected to move across the country, bringing some heavy rain to northern and western areas on Saturday. Southern and eastern areas will stay mostly dry. By Sunday the rain will arrive here too, as a cold front heads southeast. Behind the front, high pressure will build in from the west with some cooler-feeling air.

For the first half of next week, there will be a bit of a north-south split in the weather for the UK. A frontal system will push into northern areas on Monday while high pressure keeps the southern half of the country fine, mild and dry. A weak front will slowly make its way southwards but it is unlikely to reach southern England until later on Wednesday. This will keep southern areas on the warmer, drier side of the front through midweek. Northern areas will be cooler but also fairly dry. Outbreaks of light rain are expected along the front, mainly in the Midlands.

The second half of the week and next weekend will see high pressure build in strongly from the northwest, pushing the weak front into Central Europe. Turning much drier throughout the country, with some sunny days, chilly nights and frosty mornings. There is a risk for a few showers along the east coast at times but these are not expected to push too far inland.

Monday 23 March – Sunday 29 March

Dry weather for many but some rain in the north.

The colder but drier end to next week will likely continue into late March as high pressure is sluggish to move away. However, this sustained dry period will bring some relief to flooded areas after the extremely wet winter. Temperatures will tend to be a bit below average for the start of the week, especially in the east where a brisk northerly wind will persist on the North Sea. But lighter winds for central and western counties will make for pleasant-feeling afternoons, despite the cooler air. Overnight it will continue to be chilly and some frosty mornings are likely throughout the country.

Later in the week, Atlantic weather fronts are likely to creep back in from the northwest, reaching Northern Ireland and northern Scotland. This will make for a wetter and windier close to the month for these areas but fronts will likely be on the weaker side so rain shouldn't be too heavy. However, this will also bring in some southwesterly winds that will help drag in warmer sub-tropical air into the UK, so the end of the week will turn milder.

Confidence for the end of March is overall pretty high with the models performing well recently. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure stubbornly remains in place, preventing fronts from arriving. This will be a drier and calmer pattern for the north and west but it will also keep things cooler than normal.

Monday 30 March – Sunday 12 April

Spring-like days, chilly nights. Wet in the north.

As we head into April, the weakening high pressure is expected to make a comeback for a time, with the first part of the month seeing dry, calm and mild weather throughout. Weak fronts may be able to find their way into Scotland at times but there will be some lengthy dry spells here too. Temperatures will tend to be a bit above average for many however, western areas will tend to be nearer to normal.

Prolonged high pressure also means clear, calm nights, so it is likely the mornings will feel quite crisp. Frosts are still expected during some nights, even in the south but the days will quickly warm up in the mostly sunny afternoons. Pollen levels will begin to climb as well with some very spring-like weather.

Towards the middle of the month there are some early signs of a pattern change as high pressure declines slightly over northwest Europe. This means that Atlantic weather systems will begin to reach northern areas and possibly western areas too. Rain and winds will return but the winds will also stay mostly out of the southwest, so it will continue to be a bit milder than normal. The nights could be chilly but there will be a reduced frost risk.

However, confidence is low at the moment for high pressure declining and just how far south across the UK the fronts will reach. Southern areas may stay fairly dry and warm through mid-April but if high pressure retreats too quickly it could turn wet and windy again.

Further ahead

We will have some addition data for April to investigate how long high pressure may stick around into mid-month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A drier, more settled end to March

_________________________________

Wednesday 18 March – Sunday 22 March

Rain for some, but a drier end to the week

A front will trail across the UK on Wednesday, this feature bringing outbreaks of rain to Wales, parts of South West England and perhaps to some areas of the Midlands and East Anglia. The same front will bring large areas of cloud to southern England, but it should be largely dry here with only a slight chance of the odd spot of drizzle. Northern England should be largely dry with bright spells, and Scotland and Northern Ireland will have sunny spells and showers. The showers will give some snow on higher ground in Scotland. It will be a windy day for both Scotland and Northern Ireland. One Thursday, the same front is expected to bring some rain to the south of the UK. There is some uncertainty over exactly which areas will be affected, but South West England and south Wales look most likely.

Other parts of the UK should be drier with the best of the sunshine in the north. Friday will see a similar pattern across the UK. The south-western quarter of the country is most likely to see rain, with other areas drier and with the north brightest. The weekend will see high pressure starting to have more of an influence on our weather. Saturday will probably see the remnants of Friday's rain still lingering in western areas, but by Sunday the vast majority of the country will be dry. We do expect there to be a spell of cool east to north-easterly winds across the country as high pressure becomes established over Scandinavia, so despite the emerging drier weather it will feel rather cool.

Monday 23 March – Sunday 29 March

Dry weather for many, but with some rain up north

The colder but drier end to this week will likely continue into next week as high pressure is sluggish to move away. This sustained dry period will bring some relief to flood hit areas after the extremely wet winter. Temperatures will tend to be a bit below average for the start of the week, especially in the east where a brisk north-easterly wind will persist on the North Sea. But lighter winds for central and western counties will make for pleasant-feeling afternoons, despite the cooler air. Nights will continue to be chilly and some frosty mornings are likely throughout the country. Whilst much of the country will be dry, there will be a chance of Atlantic weather systems pushing into some north-western areas at times.

This is most likely to happen later next week, when rain could affect Northern Ireland and North West Scotland. This will mean a wetter and windier close to the month for these areas, but fronts will likely be on the weaker side so rain shouldn't be too heavy. However, this will also bring in some southwest winds that will help drag some warmer sub-tropical air into the UK, so the end of the week will turn milder.
Confidence for the end of March is overall pretty high with some good performance in the models recently. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure stubbornly remains in place, preventing fronts from arriving. Whilst this would result in a drier and calmer pattern for the north and west, but also keep things cooler than normal.

Monday 30 March – Sunday 12 April

Spring-like days, chilly nights.

There probably won't be too much change to the weather as we head into April, but we do expect a change in the pattern across Europe as we get a bit further into next month. The first week of the month will probably see further dry, calm weather for the UK. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year, with some cool nights and perhaps some frosty mornings. There will also be some warm and sunny afternoons. Pollen levels will begin to climb as well with some very spring-like weather. As we move closer to the middle of the month, it looks as though we'll see a decline in the high pressure which has blocked the flow of weather systems coming from the west. If anything, the focus of high pressure is more likely to be near west or south-west Europe with low pressure troughing nearer to the north and north-east.

What this means is that Atlantic weather systems will be able to have more of an influence on our weather. Northern parts of the UK might be most susceptible to wetter and windier weather, but we could see changeable conditions in the south too. Whilst it looks more wetter and windier towards the middle of April, it is worth stressing that at the moment, it doesn't look as wet or as windy as the it was at the end of winter. Finally, there is a chance that the low pressure troughing expected to be over Scandinavia could extend southwards. If this happens, it could bring a spell of more northerly winds to the UK. April can bring spells of cold weather and this year may be no exception.

Further ahead

Will the cold spell in April look more or less likely?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Drier and calmer than recent weeks

_________________________________

Monday 23 March – Sunday 29 March

Often dry for many with only occasional rain.

Much of the UK will have often dry weather through the coming week with only occasional spells of rain expected for many. This weekend will see a lot of dry and sunny weather, thanks to an area of high pressure near Scandinavia. However, there will be a brisk easterly wind, which will add a chill. The nights will be cold enough for some frost, most widely on Sunday night.

Through the first half of next week, England and Wales are likely to stay largely dry and bright. Winds should ease, too, making it feel more pleasant in the daytime. However, the nights are likely to still be rather cold. Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to be windier and cloudier at times with rain in places. There is some uncertainty over the extent of any rain - the far north-west of Scotland, including the Western Isles will probably see the focus of any heavier rain.

The second half of next week should see a lot of dry weather for many with only occasional patchy rain. However, it is unlikely to be particularly warm with some further chilly nights likely. It may even turn a little colder by day towards the end of the week.

Monday 30 March – Sunday 5 April

Mostly dry and calm with temperatures near average

The start of April is expected to see a lot of dry and settled weather with an area of high pressure dominating. Occasionally we will probably see one or two weak fronts bringing patchy rain but overall rainfall amounts look set to be below-average. Winds are likely to be from the north at times, bringing some further chilly nights and a continued risk of frosts. However, under any lengthier periods of sunshine, it should feel pleasant during the days.

There is some uncertainty where the high pressure area will be most often centred and this has implications for the temperatures. If high pressure ends-up mainly centred to the east of the UK, we could draw in some much warmer air from the south. However, at present, it looks like temperatures will be often near or even slightly below average.

Monday 6 April – Sunday 19 April

Turning more changeable with rain at times

Into the middle part of April, it looks likely we'll lose the high pressure influence at times. This means that, after a relatively dry and calm start to the month, conditions are likely to become much more changeable by mid-April.

Much of the British Isles will see cloud and rain at times although there should continue to be some drier and brighter days as well. Rainfall amounts could rise a little above the average over northern parts of the UK. However, we are unlikely to see a return to the very wet conditions experienced in February.

Overall, temperatures are likely to be near to a little above the seasonal average. Increased amounts of cloud compared to the preceding couple of weeks should mean a reduced risk of night frosts.

Further ahead

It looks as though we are heading for some drier and calmer weather compared to recently through the next couple of weeks. We will take another look to see whether we can then expect some wetter weather to return with April showers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Spring slow to warm up
  • Longer drier spell into April
  • Temperatures remain uncertain

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/03/20/john-hammonds-month-ahead-hope-through-chill-wind/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Drier, colder for March with April showers later

_________________________________

Wednesday 25 March – Sunday 29 March

Often dry and sunny but a cold weekend ahead

For the rest of this working week, most of the UK will see sunny, dry, and fine weather with some pleasantly warm afternoons and chilly, frosty nights. The one spanner in the works is a weak front that is currently in northern Scotland. This is bringing some strong winds and bands of rain, but only in northern areas. As we head through the end of the week, this front will drift slowly southwards, reaching southern England on Friday. However, rain will be unlikely to get further south than the Central Belt in Scotland as the front weakens significantly. On both the northern and southern sides of the band of clouds, it will be mostly sunny and fine. This weekend high pressure will build to the northwest of the country and bring in a brisk northeast wind. This will peak on Sunday, where scattered showers will drift into eastern and central areas of Britain. These will likely be wintry even down to low levels, especially Sunday afternoon. There will be a biting wind as well making things feel quite raw. Western areas and Northern Ireland should stay dry and mostly sunny but will still be rather cold.

Monday 30 March – Sunday 5 April

Plenty of dry sunshine but wintry showers for some

The high pressure system that is expected to develop to the northwest will linger into early April, keeping things dry and mostly sunny throughout the country. However, with northerly winds at times the cold polar air will continue to feed in from the north. Any showery weather will remain on the edges of the high and most likely remain offshore, but northern and eastern areas have the greatest risk of seeing those shower.

Showers will tend to be blustery and due to the colder air will likely be wintry even to low levels. Central and western parts of the country will be more under the high's influence and likely stay dry but a bit colder than normal. Northerly winds off the North Sea will make for a sharp, biting feel on the eastern coasts. Throughout the week, overnight frosts are likely to be fairly common across the country under clear skies and light winds. Sunny afternoons will likely not feel quite as warm as we'd expect for early April.

Monday 6 April – Sunday 19 April

Gradually turning more unsettled, warmer

Heading into the middle part of April, we expect a gradual pattern shift away from a strong, blocking high pressure system. This high will likely shift west into the Atlantic and away from the UK, allowing low pressure to form near Scandinavia. The result is a shift to more low pressure tracks and a return of unsettled, wet, and windy weather. This should be a slow transition happening over the course of a week or so, but by mid-April much of the country should be seeing Atlantic weather fronts and occasional rainy days.

Temperatures will slowly climb back towards average, and by mid-April some parts of the country will be a bit warmer than normal as fronts bring in some mild tropical air from the southwest. There will be occasional cold days mixed in after cold fronts pass through as well, but there are currently no strong signals for any prolonged or widespread cold by mid April. However, this all comes with the rather large caveat that confidence is pretty low by mid-April. Forecast models are struggling to pinpoint the location of the high, and this leads to some large swings in the expected weather even if the high pressure position only shifts by a hundred miles.

Further ahead

With some new data we will take a better look at how April is shaping up and just how long the cold will stick around.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cool end to March, a bit milder in April.

_________________________________

Saturday 28 March – Sunday 5 April

A cool week ahead with many areas largely dry.

High pressure will remain centred to the north-west of the United Kingdom throughout this weekend. It will bring brisk north to north-easterly winds to many areas of the country on Saturday and on Sunday. These winds combined with chilly polar air mean that it will feel very cold with a significant wind chill for most areas. Whilst most areas will be largely dry, showers are likely to affect some eastern areas. These showers may be wintry in nature, but it is worth noting that we are not expecting widespread or persistent snow and settling snow may well be fairly transitory. Next week will be very similar to the weekend at first, but we expect winds to ease off towards the middle of the week. By that time, high pressure will have started to decline southwards.

Whilst this makes little difference to many areas of the UK, it will allow Atlantic weather systems to bring some showers and rain to some northern parts of the UK. This kind of pattern is likely to continue through the second half of the week. The north of the UK could see showers or rain and will tend to be relatively cool. The south, which will be nearer to the ridge of high pressure, should stay drier. It will be relatively cool here too. Worth mentioning that some rain could move into the west late next week as high pressure starts to drift eastwards, but confidence in this part of the forecast is fairly low.

Monday 6 April – Sunday 12 April

Chance of rain in the north, drier in the south.

Having started to drift eastwards at the start of April, high pressure is likely to start to drift westwards again as we move towards the middle of the month. For the UK, this means that there will be the chance of some unsettled weather, although it doesn't look like the start of another prolonged spell of wet and windy weather. The north and west of the country are most likely to see showers and rain, with some spells of windy weather also likely. Scotland and Northern Ireland will probably end up wettest. Meanwhile, the further south and east you are across the country, the more likely you are to have drier and calmer weather.

Temperatures are likely to be near or a tad above average in south-eastern parts of the country, and near or perhaps a little below normal in the north and west. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast for this period of April. It all centres on the relative position and extent of the ridge of high pressure across Europe. If it is more of an extensive feature then expected, and this is most likely in the first half of the week, then more of the country to be relatively dry and calm. If the ridge of high pressure is less of a feature, as is possible at the end of the week, then expect wetter and windier but potentially milder weather.

Monday 13 April – Sunday 26 April

Probably drier, less windy than normal.

The middle and end of April will see high pressure centred broadly over the west and south-west. This should mean that Atlantic weather systems are stopped from affecting much of the country as they usually would. The result is that we should see a spell of relatively dry weather for most of the country. This doesn't mean completely dry of course - weather systems could creep around the northern side of this ridge and bring some rain, this most likely to affect Scotland and perhaps parts of Northern Ireland and northern England. On the whole, it should be drier than normal for the time of year. The north of the UK is more likely to see windy weather than the south, but overall it doesn't look like a very windy couple of weeks in most areas.

Finally, on to the temperature forecast. Winds should come broadly from the west or southwest. This could result in some warm air being pushed across parts of the country at times. As a result, we think it is most likely that temperatures will be near or a little above normal for the time of year. Whilst that doesn't rule out some cooler spells of weather, it should make any late overnight frosts less likely. As always with these longer range forecast, there is a bit of uncertainty. As with earlier in the month, the uncertainty centres around how extensive high pressure is across western Europe. There is a chance that it might be less influential and Atlantic weather systems bring more unsettled, wetter and windier weather to the UK - something perhaps a bit more like typical of mid-to-late April weather perhaps?

Further ahead

Will the forecast for April look any more certain, and will we be able to tease out any more details?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Cold end to the month
  • Slowly warming up through April
  • Wettest in northwest

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/03/27/john-hammonds-month-ahead-no-lockdown-springs-progress/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Overall, April looks drier and warmer than normal.

_________________________________

Wednesday 1 April – Sunday 5 April

Cool end to the week but warmer this weekend.

For the second half of this week, high pressure to the west of Ireland will gradually decline and shift westwards into the North Atlantic. As it does this, a low pressure system will deepen north of the UK as it heads southeast into Scandinavia. The result will be a weak cold front that will push south across the UK starting Wednesday and lasting into Thursday. As the front heads further south it will grow weaker, so much of England and Wales will likely stay dry, but Scotland and Northern Ireland will have some bands of rain to contend with.

This is still a cold front as well, even though it's weak, so it will bring in some stronger winds and colder air behind it. Scotland will cool off first with cold air spreading south through Friday. Some scattered wintry showers are likely in northern coasts with some snow for hills in the Northwest Highlands. Strong winds are also likely for Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland and North England on Thursday.

For the end of the week and through the weekend, high pressure will build in again from the west and ease the winds and rain for most. On Saturday and into Sunday as the high slides across the UK, the winds will shift to more southerly. This will bring in some much milder air from the sub-tropical Atlantic. Sunny, warm weather is likely, especially on Sunday, for most of the country this weekend. Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely run a bit cloudier though.

Monday 6 April – Sunday 12 April

Likely mostly dry, but rain chances in the north.

Although the ridge of high pressure is expected to drift eastwards at the start of April, it is likely to start to drift westwards again as we move towards the middle of the month. For the UK, this means that there will likely be more settled weather especially later in the week. However, as the high reaches into the North Atlantic, northwesterly winds may feed some cooler air in from near Iceland. The north and west of the country are most likely to see a few showers and rain at first. Scotland and Northern Ireland will probably end up wettest, with a risk of some rain even into the end of the week. Meanwhile, the further south and east you are across the country, the more likely you are to have drier and calmer weather.

Temperatures are likely to be near or a tad above average in south-eastern parts of the country, and near or perhaps a little below normal in the north and west. Overall confidence is hovering around medium. This is because minor shifts in the location of the high pressure will have some large changes in the expected weather here. If it is more of an extensive feature then expected, and this is most likely in the first half of the week, then more of the country will be relatively dry and calm, but also a bit warmer than average. If the ridge of high pressure is less of a feature, as is possible at the end of the week, then expect wetter and windier weather throughout.

Monday 13 April – Sunday 26 April

Probably drier, less windy than normal.

The middle and end of April will see high pressure centred broadly our west and south-west. This should mean that Atlantic weather systems are stopped from affecting much of the country as they usually would. The result is that we should see a spell of relatively dry weather for most of the country. This doesn't mean completely dry of course - weather systems could creep around the northern side of this high pressure system and bring some rain, this most likely to affect Scotland and Northern Ireland. On the whole, it should be drier than normal for the time of year. The north of the UK is more likely to see windier weather than the south, but it doesn't look like a very windy couple of weeks in most areas.

Finally, on to the temperature forecast. Winds should come broadly from the west or southwest. This should result in some warmer than normal air being pushed across parts of the country at times. As a result, we think it is most likely that temperatures will be above normal for the time of year, especially for the southern half of the country. Whilst that doesn't rule out some cooler spells of weather, it should make any late overnight frosts or wintry showers less likely - even in Scotland.

As always with these longer range forecast, there is a bit of uncertainty. As with earlier in the month, the uncertainty centres around how extensive high pressure is across western Europe. There is a chance that it might be less influential and Atlantic weather systems bring more unsettled, wetter and windier weather to the UK -something perhaps a bit more like typical of mid-to-late April weather?

Further ahead

Although the mild, dry April forecast continues to hold, confidence is still only medium. Will late April end up wetter after all?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Warmer spell
  • Plenty of dry weather through April
  • Lingering risk of frost

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/04/03/john-hammonds-month-ahead-staying-home-and-dry/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

April looks dry, mild, and sunny. Rain in May

_________________________________

Monday 6 April – Sunday 12 April

Warm at times through the coming week

The cooler air from the northwest will move in with a ridge of high pressure and bring temperatures nearer to normal on Monday. Monday night for England will turn quite chilly with some frost likely under clear skies and calm winds. On Tuesday and Wednesday another frontal system will slowly move in from the west, with the warm front bringing in another very mild airmass on Wednesday and into Thursday.

It will turn a little cooler heading into the Easter weekend, as a cold front will bring some rain later in the week. Over the long weekend, the day-to-day specifics are still a bit uncertain, but overall, we expect things to be a bit more settled, warmer than normal, and dry. However, northern areas may see some rain and cloudy skies too.

Monday 13 April – Sunday 19 April

Mild and dry as high pressure builds

Through the middle of the month we expect high pressure will be a prominent character in the weather story. This will tend to keep things drier, calmer, and milder than normal throughout the country. The ridge of high pressure will likely sit nearby or overhead, especially by the second half of the week, so some sunny and warm days are likely.

There is still some lingering uncertainty on how settled it will be for the first half of the week, leftover from the holiday weekend. There is a risk that high pressure is a bit lethargic as it builds over the UK, so the bank holiday Monday and first part of the week may be a bit more unsettled with some rain mainly for western and northern areas. This should clear up by midweek with some dry weather for most everyone.

As the high pressure ridge shifts around slightly, there will likely be some variable temperatures swings along with some chilly nights. For the most part, however, temperatures will run above average with some warm, sunny afternoons likely. The pollen levels are also likely to climb with some good growing weather expected for a few weeks this month.

Monday 20 April – Sunday 3 May

Low pressure set to return from the northwest

The large high pressure ridge over the UK in the middle of April is likely to stick with us for most of the month, keeping things dry and mild. However, as we head later in April, the high centre may well shift east into Central Europe, becoming more centred over Germany or Poland. This means that a few weak frontal systems may be able to reach northern areas, mainly Scotland. There will still be some lengthy dry spells though.

As we head into May, there are some increasingly strong signals for a pattern shift to more unsettled weather. High pressure is most likely to decline and continue to shift away from the UK, allowing the low pressure tracks to return from the northwest. This will be a wetter and windier outlook. Temperatures will become nearer to normal but also become a bit variable with warm and cold fronts in the area.

Confidence is medium at the moment, with a risk that the high pressure is a bit more tenacious than we're giving it credit for and sticks around well into May. As it stands now, we think the most likely scenario is for some sunny, warm days through the end of April before things turn increasingly rainy in May.

Further ahead

More detail on the way for the rest of April and May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

April looking dry, mild, and sunny. Rain in May

_________________________________

Wednesday 8 April – Sunday 12 April

Warm end of the week, wetter weekend

High pressure is likely to be nearby for the rest of this week and through much of the weekend. This will keep things overall drier and sunnier than normal, with some warmer air moving in for the second half of the week. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday are all likely to see temperatures climb above average widely across the country, but this will be the most pronounced in the southeast. Especially Thursday and Friday were highs may reach into the mid-twenties locally. Western areas will see some rain on Friday, and a few showers are possible in the Midlands and North England too, but otherwise it will be dry. Northern Ireland and North Scotland will likely not tap into the mild air, however, and their temperatures will stay near or a bit below normal.

Monday 13 April – Sunday 19 April

Early rain, cool air then drier and milder

Through the middle of the month we still expect high pressure will be the most prominent feature in our weather pattern. This will tend to keep things drier, calmer, and milder than normal throughout the country. The ridge of high pressure will likely sit nearby or overhead, especially by the second half of the week, so some sunny and warm days are likely. There is still some lingering uncertainty on how settled it will be for the first half of the week. High pressure will tend to build in from the north and northeast, allowing the low pressure system from the weekend to linger in the southwest early in the week.

So the first part of the week may be more unsettled with some rain showers for western areas. Northern and eastern parts of the country should be dry and sunny but feeling cooler than normal as the high brings in from Arctic air. This should clear up by midweek with some dry weather for most as temperatures moderate. As the high pressure ridge shifts around slightly, there will likely be variable temperatures swings along with some chilly nights. For the most part, however, temperatures will gradually trend above average with warm, sunny afternoons likely by the end of the week. It's not all pleasant though, as with the recent wet weather in February and March, the pollen levels will likely climb with some good growing weather expected for a few weeks this month.

Monday 20 April – Sunday 3 May

Drier for a time, but rain returns in May

The large high pressure ridge over the UK in the middle of April looks likely to stick with us for most of the month, keeping things dry and mild throughout the country. However, as we head later into April the high centre may well shift east into Central Europe, becoming more centred over Germany or Poland. This means that a few weak frontal systems may be able to reach northern areas, mainly Scotland. There will still be some lengthy dry spells, and it will stay mild with temperatures generally above average, if only by a slight amount. As we head into May, there are some increasingly strong signals for a pattern shift to more unsettled weather.

High pressure is most likely to decline and continue to shift away from the UK, allowing the low pressure tracks to gradually return from the northwest. This will be a wetter and windier outlook for the whole country, but more frequently in western and northern parts. Temperatures will become nearer to normal but also become a bit variable with warm and cold fronts in the area. Confidence is medium at the moment, with a risk that the high pressure sticks around well into May. As it stands now, we think the most likely scenario is for some sunny, warm days through the end of April before things turn increasingly rainy in May.

Further ahead

Will high pressure stick around to start May?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

April looking dry, mild, and sunny. Rain in May

_________________________________

Wednesday 15 April – Sunday 19 April

Wetter, mild in the south. Dry, cool in the north

For the second half of this week, a low pressure system will slowly drift into south west England from the Bay of Biscay. This will bring some showers, heavy or thundery in places, but also some milder air. Thursday and Friday will see showers more widely across southern England and Wales, with temperatures climbing to a little above average, but not nearly as warm as the Easter holiday weekend. Further north, high pressure to the north near Shetland will keep things fine and dry, although the milder air will not reach this far, so temperatures will stay just below normal.
Over the weekend, the low pressure system in the south will linger but begin to slowly drift into France, so a wet, cloudy, and unsettled weekend is in store for most places south of Birmingham, but especially in the southwest. There will be some dry spells mixed in to due to the showery nature of the rain. However, the closer to France the low gets, the less mild air will reach southern England, so by the end of the weekend temperatures across the country are likely to be near or a bit below normal. High pressure will continue to keep things dry for the north, and a ridge will extend further south beginning Sunday, so drier weather is expected in the west too.

Monday 20 April – Sunday 26 April

Very dry but cooler than normal

High pressure from the north will continue to influence the weather for the final full week of April. This will keep things very dry for most of the country, but in particular the northern half which will be nearer to the high. However, a cooler northeast wind will persist through the week, so temperatures everywhere will tend to run slightly below normal. This will be most pronounced in the east and north. The main exception to the dryness will be in the south, where a nearby low will potentially bring some early-week showers.

However, this is only a risk at the moment, and we expect conditions to be mostly dry even along the south coast. Confidence is high with good agreement in the computer models, but there is perhaps a 25% chance that we see some wetter weather in the south through the first half of the week. Rain would mainly be confined to south of the M4 corridor.

Monday 27 April – Sunday 10 May

Drier for a time but rain returns in May

For the end of April and start of May, the high pressure to the north will likely drift north and west, heading for Greenland and Iceland. This will lead to a gradual shift in the pattern from a dry, sunny, calm outlook to some wetter and windier weather. Low pressure tracks will begin to creep in from the southwest via the Bay of Biscay, bringing some spells of rain and winds to most of the country. With the high pressure nearby, this will likely lead to some lengthy dry spells between weather fronts, especially for the northern half of the country. Temperatures will still tend to be below normal as well.

Heading into the first full week of May, low pressure should become more established over the UK with wetter and windier weather for all. This may lead to some slow-moving fronts overhead that tend to keep things very wet for some places. Temperatures will be a bit nearer to normal, but likely still on the cooler side. Warm fronts will bring milder air into Europe, but this will likely struggle to reach into the UK except for perhaps one or two brief warmer days. Confidence is medium for this range with some uncertainty on the intensity of high pressure and the amount of unsettled weather. However, there aren't too many encouraging signs for a warmer-than-normal outlook.

Further ahead

More on May's weather and how the final month of spring is shaping-up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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