Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
22 hours ago, Snipper said:

I am a grand dad and don’t believe anything anyone tells me particularly the media and politicians. 

I don't believe anything until James Madden has confirmed it !!!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex
14 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I also notice the winter 1974/75 is one of their analogues, I don't think Netweather will be a very happy place this winter if that comes off!

It also reminds me of some index that was proposed in 2014, it had some obscure acronym but they were claiming the model had a high level of skill. They predicted that winter 2014/15 would be very cold and yet it was Atlantic dominated during all three months.

We then never heard of that index again, was called the OPI I think?

OPI or October Pattern Index.

What a joke that turned out to be!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Well done that's right...maybe a few decades ago there might have been something in it but now overriding global warming effects might have shelved many pattern matching analogues - sorry Gav!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
31 minutes ago, Wynter said:

OPI or October Pattern Index.

What a joke that turned out to be!

Just another tool to  be used    that year it turned into a bust  however  there was a strong correlation to wintry months    not unlike  SAI  or low solar minimum   all are not 100 percent.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Just another tool to  be used    that year it turned into a bust  however  there was a strong correlation to wintry months    not unlike  SAI  or low solar minimum   all are not 100 percent.    

From the plethora of -- almost invariably wrong -- seasonal predictions I've seen, these last 17-years, such 'tools' are about as much good as nowt, Mark...?:oldgrin:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Just another tool to  be used    that year it turned into a bust  however  there was a strong correlation to wintry months    not unlike  SAI  or low solar minimum   all are not 100 percent.    

Yes but they had a sample size of 36 and a correlation of 0.92.

A correlation that high over a small time period to me looks very suspicious, not least because there aren't any clear cut links between the variables they include (for example what is the degree of influence from solar activity when combined with other factors? there is lMO some sort of link but how does that emerge when other things are at play).

It's not like the GhG effect where we know there is a proven link, so a correlation that high is likely to be due to overfitting due to too many parameters. Throwing in lots of variables whether they are influential or not will very likely produce a strong relationship... regardless of whether they actually have an effect on synoptics. A sample size of 36 winters simply isn't enough.

Why didn't they go back to the 1950s? Probably because their model performs poorly during that decade. The fact that we have barely heard from it since winter 2014/15 indicates that the creator of the index may have thrown in the towel as well.

The biggest advance in forecasting in the last 15-20 years IMO is from predicting the likelihood of stratospheric warming events, although as we saw with last year if the vortex falls in the wrong place it really works against us.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes but they had a sample size of 36 and a correlation of 0.92.

A correlation that high over a small time period to me looks very suspicious, not least because there aren't any clear cut links between the variables they include (for example what is the degree of influence from solar activity when combined with other factors? there is lMO some sort of link but how does that emerge when other things are at play).

It's not like the GhG effect where we know there is a proven link, so a correlation that high is likely to be due to overfitting due to too many parameters. Throwing in lots of variables whether they are influential or not will very likely produce a strong relationship... regardless of whether they actually have an effect on synoptics. A sample size of 36 winters simply isn't enough.

Why didn't they go back to the 1950s? Probably because their model performs poorly during that decade. The fact that we have barely heard from it since winter 2014/15 indicates that the creator of the index may have thrown in the towel as well.

The biggest advance in forecasting in the last 15-20 years IMO is from predicting the likelihood of stratospheric warming events, although as we saw with last year if the vortex falls in the wrong place it really works against us.

Thats what i said  its a tool that can be useful  but with so many variables  non are 100 percent    Like the Strat  i believe there is a 66ish percent chance of it being beneficial  for us ( interms of cold winter)   in my opinion  there is nothing out there  that can properly forecast that distance into the future.  However i wouldnt totally dismiss these  such as OPI Sai etc   as maybe    hopefully in a few more years  and with a larger sample size  we may begin to understand them better.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I still think that OPI has a lot of merit, i am going to be using it (loosely admittedly as i don't have access to the parameters) but tweaking it, perhaps having 2 periods - Oct, and mid Oct to  Mid November, i think when you have a strong vortex over the pole - ie - a positive OPI, you can pretty much rule out sustained blocking for at the very minimum the first 2 months  of winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

More settled as autumn holds off for a while

_________________________________

Wednesday 11 September – Sunday 15 September

A wet and windy week with a calmer, drier weekend

The rest of the working week looks rather unsettled with some rain for most of the country at times, although most often in the north. Wednesday will see a frontal system from the remnants of Hurricane Dorian slowly move through Wales and England before clearing to the south in the evening. Further north, behind the front, there will be some scattered blustery showers and sunny spells. On Thursday the remnants of Tropical Storm Gabrielle are expected to track across the central UK. This means that while the system will have fronts like a normal Atlantic weather system, it will also have some warmer, tropical air. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer than recent days for the southern half of the country.

Rain and winds will tend to be confined to Wales, the Midlands, and northern England, although southern England may see some patchy rain Thursday night. By Friday and into the weekend, high pressure will begin to build in from the south and southwest, bringing more settled weather to the southern half of Britain. A few weak fronts will likely continue to plague Scotland (and Northern Ireland at times) with cloudier skies and some patchy light rain or drizzle. It will turn rather warm in the south, particularly on Sunday with temperatures reaching the mid-twenties Celsius.

Monday 16 September – Sunday 22 September

High pressure remaining largely in charge

High pressure is expected to dominate next week, blocking any low pressure systems from reaching the UK. This will keep things calm, dry, and settled with warmer air feeding in from the southwest. The best of the dry and settled conditions will be the south, particularly the southwest. Northern areas, especially North Scotland, will see temperatures a bit closer to normal, and may see influences from occasional weak fronts bringing in some cloudier and wetter weather. Early on in the week, a weak cold front slowly crossing the UK from the north will bring in a brief spell of cooler weather and some patchy light rain to eastern areas.

Most of the polar air is expected to remain east of the UK, and western areas will stay warmer than average for mid-September. By midweek and for the rest of the week and weekend, the cooler polar air will be pushed off to the east by building high pressure, bringing temperatures back above average for eastern areas. With it being September, even though sunny afternoon highs will tend to be above average, the overnight lows will likely still feel chilly, and there is a chance of frost in known cold spots or frost hollows. Mist and fog will likely become more prevalent and could linger for a time each morning.

Monday 23 September – Sunday 6 October

Cool, but perhaps settled for a time

The end of September is expected to see settled and warm weather linger as the blocking high pressure system remains stubbornly in place over or near the UK. This will keep Atlantic weather systems closer to Iceland and into Scandinavia. As the fronts pass north of the UK, a few may be just strong enough to reach into the far north of Scotland or the Northern Isles, bringing some clouds and patchy light rain. Elsewhere there should be a good amount of dry and calm weather. This is not destined to last, however, and as we head into October, autumn will likely begin to rear its head with high pressure shifting into the Atlantic and low pressure becoming more influential.

This will mean temperatures trending cooler, and the weather becoming wetter and windier; a more typical British autumn. There is some uncertainty on exactly when this pattern shift will occur. Up until recently, forecast models have been keen to break down our high pressure system early on in October. However, over recent days, at least some of these forecast models have been reluctant to do so, keeping the largely settled spell going for longer - perhaps on in to the middle of the month. There is a 40% chance that even the first week of October could be a little warmer than average and generally more settled for all. Even with more unsettled and wetter weather, high pressure is expected to linger nearby to the south or southwest, so there should be some dry and calm interludes between frontal systems. This will be most pronounced in the south.

Further ahead

September is looking increasingly likely to be dry and warm, but when will autumn finally arrive in October?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

The last two sentences changed their mind! Really...

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/17895152.gritter-u-turn-council-planned-get-rid-two-snow-ploughs/

CONCERNS that BCP Council did not have enough snow ploughs ahead of winter have prompted it to spend an extra £35,000 on keeping two vehicles it had planned to get rid of.

According to a cabinet report, the shortage of vehicles was discovered during preparation of gritting routes for the coming months.

In order to ensure it has enough vehicles to manage the area’s main roads, the council has postponed plans to dispose of two gritters for a year.

Cabinet members will consider the issue, part of the council’s severe weather plan, at their meeting on Wednesday (September 11).

“Two additional vehicles have been retained (for one year only) to ensure capabilities to deliver 12 routes,” the report said.

“This follows the identification of the need to source a shortfall in gritters to cover the wider network with only one vehicle transferring from Dorset Council as part of asset disaggregation.”

The report added that the cost of retaining the vehicles and maintaining them for an extra year had been estimated at £35,000.

Road maintenance priorities outlined in the plan for this winter are all A roads, access to Poole Port, Bournemouth Airport, emergency service centre, hospitals and the link to the A31.

The council has a £233,000 budget for its provision of winter services this year.

The report said a review of its services would be carried out for how it manages the work in the long-term with this year being an “interim” plan.

Consideration of council preparation for the winter weather comes as researchers at University College London have warned that the country could see a return to weather similar to that of the 2018 ‘Beast from the East’.

Studying current weather systems and patterns over the Atlantic, they said there was a 57 per cent chance temperatures in the coming winter would be below those experienced in 2017 and 2018

Edited by Dorsetbred
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

High pressure frequently keeping fronts at bay

_________________________________

Saturday 14 September – Sunday 22 September

Some rain at times

Saturday will be fine across southern and central Britain, with lots of sunshine for England and Wales. Central and northern Scotland will be rather cloudy and windy with outbreaks of rain, and gales across the far north. It will become cloudier across Northern Ireland and southern Scotland, with a risk of rain here later in the day. A band of cloud and a few spots of rain will sink south towards north Wales and the Midlands on Sunday, giving a rather cloudy and damp day here. Dry with a good deal of sunshine for southern England, and rather warm and humid too, but breezier across Scotland with the odd shower in the west. Monday will see the band of cloud and patchy rain slowly fade across southern England and Wales, with westerly winds continuing to bring a few further showers to western Scotland and the Northern Isles. There will be a good deal of sunshine elsewhere.

A chilly but generally clear night will follow, while Tuesday and Wednesday will be fine but rather cool with sunny periods and patchy cloud, and perhaps a few light showers edging into North Sea coasts of England and Scotland. After mid-week, high pressure is expected to slowly drift east across the UK, giving a good deal of fine and sunny weather almost everywhere, while temperatures will slowly climb as winds shift to an east and then south-easterly direction. Shetland will see some breezier and wetter weather at times though. With light winds expected for many areas, mist and fog may develop more widely during the nights, particularly across England and Wales.

Monday 23 September – Sunday 29 September

A warm start, but unsettled for a time mid-week

A warm start across southern and central Britain, with south or south-westerly winds pushing temperatures well above normal for one or two days. Fronts will remain closer to Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing a chance of rain and stronger winds. These rather unsettled conditions look like becoming a little more widespread across the country through the middle of the week, when a few weakening fronts may move south and east across England and Wales. However, much of southern and south-eastern England will see little rain, perhaps with a couple of cloudier and breezier days instead.

It looks like high pressure will build back across the UK from the south-west through the latter half of the week, with a couple of low pressure areas then passing to the north of Scotland. Winds falling light at times and lengthier sunny spells developing. Any wet and windy weather should fade across northern Britain too, although it may be cloudier and breezier with a risk of rain in the far north at times.

Monday 30 September – Sunday 13 October

Frequently calm and sunny

The end of September may see some drier and warmer days once again, with high pressure, perhaps located over the near Continent, providing a warm south or south-easterly airflow for a time. Therefore, the month could end on a relatively dry and calm note for many, with areas of low pressure kept at bay in the Atlantic. As we head into early October, it looks more likely that high pressure will lie just to the west of the UK, in the north-east Atlantic, with low pressure areas more frequent across Scandinavia. With the UK often lying between these two systems, there could occasionally be some breezier and wetter weather for the north and east, perhaps with a couple of weakening fronts bringing some showers in from the north-west.

While Scotland may see some cooler west or north-westerly winds at times, high pressure should maintain a good deal of warm, dry and calm weather for western and south-western areas, where there should also be some good spells of Autumn sunshine. This same general weather pattern looks set to continue into the second week of October, although high pressure may occasionally extend further north by this stage. This would allow more frequent north-westerly airflows to filter across the country, pushing temperatures below average across northern areas. Lots of sunshine, particularly across western areas, while cloud and the odd shower may perhaps drift in from the North Sea at times.

Further ahead

Will we see Atlantic low pressure systems roar into life during the second half of October, bringing much-needed rainfall to southern Britain?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often dry in the south with rain in the north west

_________________________________

Wednesday 18 September – Sunday 22 September

Fine for most, but cloud and rain this weekend

High pressure will dominate the UK weather for the rest of the working week, blocking any weather fronts from bringing significant weather to England and Wales. Here, largely dry and sunny weather can be expected, although some mist and fog is likely to develop overnight, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday nights. After chilly mornings, temperatures will rise to give some warm afternoons, with temperatures tending to climb later in the week too. Meanwhile, a weak warm front will bring rather cloudy and damp weather to central and northern Scotland on Wednesday, with low cloud and drizzle lingering across the Northern Isles early on Thursday. Increasingly dry and fine weather should develop across Scotland later on Thursday and on Friday.

Saturday will be the warmest day of the week, but rather breezy too, with south-easterly winds pushing temperatures into the mid-20s Celsius across southern and south eastern Britain. The eastern half of the country will see a good deal of fine and sunny weather, although building cloud in the west will bring some showers to Wales and south west England, perhaps with the odd rumble of thunder. Cloud and outbreaks of rain will push further east across Great Britain overnight into Sunday. While eastern areas may start off dry with some early sunshine, the afternoon will be rather cloudy with further spells of rain for most; and feeling rather warm and humid across southern and eastern Britain.

Monday 23 September – Sunday 29 September

A mild and unsettled start, but pressure building

Another rather warm and humid day with some early sunny spells across southern and south-eastern areas on Monday, thanks to south-westerly winds ahead of an advancing front from the west, which will bring wet and windy weather to Ireland and north-western Britain through the day. A band of increasingly patchy rain may slide east across England overnight into Tuesday, which will be a cooler and quite windy day with brisk west to south-westerly winds driving showers into western and central areas. A deep area of low pressure centred to the north west could bring strong winds to western Scotland then. Some heavier rain is possible for central and northern Britain overnight into Wednesday, as a small low pressure area races in from the west, while it looks like the middle of the week will remain rather windy with a few further showers or spells of rain for northern and western Britain in particular.

Towards the end of next week, it looks like areas of low pressure will slowly retreat further north, gradually moving away from our shores. This should allow high pressure to encroach across southern Britain from the south west, allowing increasingly dry and calm weather to develop here, with some good periods of sunshine looking likely to end the week. Temperatures may also climb a little higher too. Winds should tend to subside across northern Britain, although northern and western Scotland may continue to see further bands of rain continuing to move in from the west.

Monday 30 September – Sunday 13 October

Perhaps turning calmer and drier

The end of September and first couple of days in October should continue to see high pressure lingering close to the country, and so a few days with warm and largely dry weather seem possible for many areas. However, it seems likely that depressions will move across northern Britain from the Atlantic later in the week, bringing further spells of wet and windy weather, especially to western Scotland. Southern England and Wales will remain much drier and calmer though, as high pressure centred to the south west may prevent any significant wet and windy episodes here. In fact, temperatures are likely to remain above average for all, but particularly for southern Britain where the calmest and sunniest weather is expected.

By the second week of October, there are some hints that high pressure will build back close to the UK. This would bring a significant change for northern Britain in particular, with drier and calmer weather perhaps becoming more widespread across the nation. Mist and fog may become more prevalent during the nights, with warm and sunny afternoons often following chilly mornings. However, there is a large divergence regarding computer model simulations for this week, and this reduces our confidence.

Further ahead

Will mid-October bring any significant rain to southern England and Wales?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Wind and rain sweep in
  • Tropical sources of uncertainty
  • Unreliable winter forecasts

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/09/20/john-hammond-enjoy-rays-remember-autumn/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

An unsettled spell but drier and calmer in October

_________________________________

Saturday 21 September – Sunday 29 September

Fine, dry and warm at first, but turning unsettled

The area of high pressure which brought fine and dry weather to most parts of the country for the past few days has now slipped south-eastwards into central and eastern Europe. The dry and sunny weather should continue for most areas throughout Saturday, but showers are likely to affect western and south-western parts of the UK, mainly South West England, Wales and perhaps Northern Ireland. The showers could start on Saturday morning, but they are more likely during Saturday afternoon or evening. Some heavy and thundery showers could develop. However, the bulk of the UK will remain dry and warm although rather breezy. Sunday will see a more widespread change to unsettled weather as showers and rain push north-eastwards.

There is a good chance that Scotland and North East England will remain dry for most of the day, but other areas will be prone to seeing some rain at some point. A more unsettled week with low pressure systems more of a feature. There will be showers and longer spells of rain, perhaps accompanied by spells of windy weather too. The remains of Hurricane Humberto will feed into the mix and could bring heavy rainfall to some areas in the first half of the week. As well as looking wetter and windier than this week, next week also looks cooler than it has been over the last few days. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal for the time of year, although it is likely to be a little warmer than average over the week as a whole.

Monday 30 September – Sunday 6 October

A short settled spell then rain possible later

High pressure is expected to build close to or over the western half of the country at the very end of September, so a few days of dry and calm weather seem possible for many areas. Normally high pressure located close or over NW Europe would tend to generate north-westerly or northerly winds, but we think it is likely that these cooler winds will remain to the east of the UK and Ireland. As a result, temperatures are expected to continue above average in most areas. However, it looks likely that this ridge of high pressure will decline south-eastwards into Europe during the week allowing Atlantic low pressure systems to affect the UK again.

This means that whilst the first half of the week should be relatively dry and calm, the second half of the week is more likely to be windier and wetter, with some places possibly wetter than normal for the time of year over the week as a whole. There is some uncertainty however. The most likely alternative to our expected forecast is that the ridge of high pressure does not develop as strongly or remains further south. This would leave the UK under the influence of Atlantic low pressure systems for much of the week. However, some areas of the country have been relatively dry in recent weeks, so a little extra rain might not be unwelcome.

Monday 7 October – Sunday 20 October

Probably turning calmer, drier and warmer again

There is a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast for the middle two weeks of October. This is at least partly due to tropical storm activity in the North Atlantic, which tends to introduce a level of uncertainty into medium and longer range weather forecasts at this time of year. However, there are still indications that the second week of October will see high pressure building close to or over the UK once again, bringing another spell of dry and settled weather. It looks warmer than normal too.

The high pressure is expected to remain nearby after the middle of the month, although it looks may shift a little further eastwards or south-eastwards. This would allow Atlantic weather systems to affect some western areas of the country at times, but overall the relatively dry, calm and warm weather is likely to continue. If the high pressure area shifts further east across Europe we could see some very warm southerly winds affecting the UK, although there would also be more of a chance of rain moving in from the Atlantic.

Further ahead

Will it remain settled as we move towards the end of October?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and windy into October with a few dry spells

_________________________________

Wednesday 25 September – Sunday 29 September

An unsettled, but mostly warm, end to the week

An area of low pressure passing across southern Britain will bring some early rain to south east England on Wednesday morning, and there will be a few showers in other areas but it doesn't look as wet as it was on Tuesday morning, and Wednesday afternoon looks to be drier and brighter. Meanwhile in the west, things will stay more showery with just a few sunny spells. A moderate to fresh breeze in the south west and along southern coasts. A frontal system is then expected to push in overnight and into Thursday bringing another round of heavy rain to already water-logged areas. The fronts and rain will head off into the North Sea by the early afternoon on Thursday, but scattered blustery showers will drift in to the west. A few of these may occasionally reach into central and eastern areas, and may produce the odd rumble of thunder.

For the end of the week and through the weekend things will likely stay unsettled for all with low pressure gradually sliding across Scotland and northern England. This will keep showers and some longer outbreaks of rain over the UK, with a few thundery showers mixed in. Breezy in the southern half of the country with calmer winds further north. Yet another frontal system is expected on Sunday moving in from the west-southwest, so the weekend may end on a soggy note for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland while Scotland escapes much of the rain until later in the evening.

Monday 30 September – Sunday 6 October

A brief cooler and drier spell mid-week

Low pressure systems from the Atlantic are expected to be a big feature in the weather into the start of October, but there is a rather large caveat: Tropical Storm Lorenzo. This storm is currently strengthening in the tropical Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands, and while it is still very far from the UK, it is expected to head towards West Europe into next week and become a major hurricane. Hurricanes produce a lot of rain and this gives off a lot of heat. All this heat energy tends to help build a strong ridge of high pressure ahead of the hurricane, in this case, over the UK. We expect this ridge of high pressure to arrive on Tuesday, and with it, a brief respite to our autumnal, rainy weather.

The eastern half of the country may well get a bit of a blast of chilly, polar air from a north-westerly wind as the high moves in, bringing temperatures here a bit below average. Western areas, and particularly the south west, should stay a bit warmer than average. Clear, calm nights midweek will lead to some crisp, autumn mornings, with a chance of frost in some places. This high pressure brought to us from Lorenzo does not look like it will linger for long and as we head into the weekend, Atlantic frontal systems will return from the west. One of these systems may be the remnants of Lorenzo, which could make for a wet weekend on Saturday 5th and Sunday 6th of October. However, confidence is still low on whether the remnants will arrive or not.

Monday 7 October – Sunday 20 October

Unsettled for a time but perhaps drying out later

Heading into the first full week of October, unsettled weather looks likely to continue, with low pressure tracking near to or over the UK. There are currently no strong signals that we will see any long-lived high pressure patterns in October. This will keep things wet and windy throughout the country, but high pressure will likely be near to the south and south west. This means that between frontal systems, southern areas may tend to see some drier weather and sunny spells, although these may only last for a day. Temperatures are expected to be near-average and perhaps a touch above average at times in the south as frontal systems drag warmer tropical air in from the south west.

In mid-October there are some early indications that high pressure moves in closer to the UK eventually bringing in more settled weather towards the end of the week. Low pressure will tend to be pushed off to the north or north west nearer to Iceland, but Northern Ireland and Scotland may still feel the effects at times. The driest and brightest weather will be in the south and south east. However, there is low confidence on this as the latest long-range weather models have been struggling with the October forecast. This is due to Atlantic hurricanes which can tend to throw a spanner in the works for the European weather patterns.

Further ahead

Next update: What will happen with Lorenzo and is October stuck with wet, windy weather all month?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK weather forecast: Two weeks of rain to fall today ahead of thundery showers

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-forecast-two-weeks-20225443

 

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Affinity Water threaten hosepipe ban after one of Britain’s wettest days of the year

Quote

 

WATER chiefs officially declared a drought on one of Britain’s wettest days of the year. As forecasters issued a “danger to life” warning due to flash floods, Affinity Water even threatened customers with a hosepipe ban. 

Homeowners who had battened down the hatches as remnants of Hurricane Humberto hit received an email telling them to reduce their shower times by one minute. It was also suggested they use a water butt to help with water wastage, despite more than a month’s rain falling in six hours. The firm supplies 3.6 million people with water.

Chief executive Pauline Walsh said: “Despite today’s wet weather, it may come as a surprise that over the last three years we’ve had much less rain than normal. “This means we are now in drought and we may need to introduce water restrictions (also known as a hosepipe ban) in spring 2020.” She added: “We hope we can all work together to save water during this time.” Affinity Water supplies water to four million customers in London and the Home Counties.

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10006192/affinity-water-declared-drought-britains-wettest-day/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Wintry start to October
  • Tropical influences arriving
  • More ‘welcome’ rain for many

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/09/27/john-hammond-too-wet-not-enough/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled but turning drier

_________________________________

Saturday 28 September – Sunday 6 October

Mostly unsettled with a dry, cold spell midweek.

Much of England and Wales are in for a wet and windy weekend as a frontal system sweeps across from the west on Saturday evening into Sunday. Widespread heavy rain bands and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder are likely, first in Wales and Southwest England, and then spreading across into the Southeast on Saturday night. Strong wind gusts are expected across the South, especially on the Channel coast and later in coastal East Anglia. Meanwhile, Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely escape much of the heavy rain, with the majority of precipitation staying south of the central belt.

Another frontal system is expected by Monday afternoon and into Tuesday, following much the same path as the fronts from the weekend, keeping Wales and most of England wet and breezy. However, this system is not expected to be as potent, so overall there will be less rain and winds. Again, the northern half of the country will escape the heaviest rain and winds will be light, but shift to northerly on Tuesday. These northerly winds will then spread southwards Tuesday evening, bringing a blast of colder air from the north.

A cold start for most Wednesday with temperatures in the low single figures. High pressure will bring a brief, but chilly, respite to the recent heavy rain for a few days midweek, but frontal systems are expected to return heading into next weekend as the remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo move near Iceland and weaken the high pressure ridge over the UK. Friday through Sunday is likely to be milder with some south-westerly winds bringing in more tropical air. Things will also turn wetter with active fronts pushing in from the west.

Monday 7 October – Sunday 13 October

Staying wet and windy for most places. Milder.

Heading into the first full week of October, the weather pattern is expected to keep things unsettled across the UK with low pressure tracks moving overhead or just to the north. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, is expected to strengthen over the North Atlantic, bringing fast-moving frontal systems into the UK from the west and southwest. These will keep things wet and windy for most of the country, although with high pressure just to the southwest, a few dry and calm interludes are likely.

The temperatures will tend to be near or just a bit above average overall, with frontal systems dragging milder tropical air up from the southwest. This will most often impact the southern half of the country, but this milder air will reach Scotland at times too. However, Scotland will most likely be on the cooler side of average temperatures, as these warm pulses will be short-lived.

Confidence is a bit lower than normal for this range, as there is still a lot of uncertainty on how the atmosphere will react to the remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo in the previous week. There is a 30% risk that the jet stream may not strengthen much as Lorenzo weakens, which will keep high pressure ridging stronger into Northwest Europe and the UK. This will push active frontal systems off to the north and low pressure into Scandinavia, leading to an overall drier but colder picture.

Monday 14 October – Sunday 27 October

Gradual shift into a more settled, warmer pattern.

Unfortunately, due to Atlantic hurricanes and a few other tropical weather patterns, forecast confidence for mid-to-late October is rather low at the moment. We currently expect that the more active low pressure tracks across the UK from earlier in the month will gradually get pushed out of the area by encroaching high pressure as we head into the second half of the month. This is likely to be a gradual shift that takes place over several days as opposed to a more abrupt change.

As Atlantic hurricane season winds down as we go deeper into autumn, this should allow a stronger ridge of high pressure to develop in the Atlantic. This will bring a reduction in the number of weather systems that bring wind and rain to reach the UK. This should also bring in some milder air, especially into the South, but this is highly dependent on the exact location of the high pressure. If it tends to linger further out to sea in the west, then chilly northerly winds will prevail (although the Southwest will likely stay relatively mild).

However, this comes with a rather large caveat that Atlantic hurricane season may not wind down. The typical Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 1st, so we may well see further strong hurricanes develop. These storms can strongly influence the weather patterns even thousands of miles away over Europe. There is currently quite a high risk (40%) that low pressure tracks will remain over the UK and things will stay more unsettled for the rest of the month.

Further ahead

We will look deeper into the second half of October and continue to monitor Atlantic hurricanes activity.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Cold polar maritime airmass to push across large parts of Europe next week

Quote

 

A very significant push of cool polar maritime airmass into central, eastern and southeastern Europe appears increasingly likely next week. Frosty mornings, temperatures well below average, snowfall in northern Alps and severe thunderstorms in the northern Mediterranean expected.

Both GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on the cold push. It starts in the wake of a broad low that will push across the Baltic region early on Monday, estalishing a broad meridional flow from the north into central Europe. Cold airmass will push across NW Europe, including parts of Scandinavia, the British Isles and Ireland by late on Monday, pushing further into central Europe by Thursday and into eastern and southeastern Europe late in the week.

 

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/cold-polar-maritime-airmass-to-push-across-large-parts-of-europe-next-week/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Surprised the media hasn't gone crazy over Lorenzo. I've had people coming into work saying it's going to snow and I'm saying nonsense. I expect killer hurricane stories by tomorrow surely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Lorenzo strongest hurricane to reach so far east in Atlantic Ocean

Quote

Hurricane Lorenzo has set a record for being the strongest ever to make it so far east in the Atlantic Ocean. The category four storm had winds up to 145mph (233kmh) as it passed over the ocean this week.

https://news.sky.com/story/lorenzo-strongest-hurricane-to-reach-so-far-east-in-atlantic-ocean-11822193

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...