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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

An unsettled start, then turning more settled

_________________________________

Saturday 7 September – Sunday 15 September

A fine weekend, then unsettled at times next week

This weekend, most of the UK will have a lot of dry weather thanks to a nose of high pressure extending from the south-west. There will be periods of sunshine, too, although central and southern Britain may see one or two showers on Saturday morning. In the sunshine and with only gentle winds, it will feel quite pleasant for most but some North Sea coasts will have a chilly northerly breeze for a time on Saturday. By Monday the next frontal system will push in from the west, with a cold front bringing rain to most places, with some heavy bursts likely. The air behind the cold front will be from the northern Atlantic and actually a bit warmer than the polar air from the weekend, so temperatures will trend a bit closer to average. There is growing confidence that the remnants of Hurricane Dorian will stay near Iceland through the middle of the week while sending a cold front into the UK from the northwest. Again most places will see some outbreaks of rain. The main forecast uncertainty is regarding the remnants of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which is expected to move in around Thursday. There is potential for Gabrielle to bring in some very wet and windy weather on Thursday and into Friday, mainly for the northwest, but confidence is very low on this. Later on Friday and into the next weekend, high pressure looks increasingly likely to build in from the southwest, making for milder, calmer and drier weather for the weekend.

Monday 16 September – Sunday 22 September

Mostly dry and settled weather across the country

The high pressure that builds in over the weekend of the 14th and 15th will tend to become a more persistent feature heading into late-September, keeping things drier, calmer, and a bit warmer than normal. Low pressure tracks will likely be pushed off to the north closer to Iceland. The warmest air will likely remain locked in the Continent, but temperatures should climb to slightly above average for mid-to-late September for most places. However, early in the week there may be a few weak fronts that reach into Scotland and Northern Ireland as the high shifts slightly eastwards. The southern half of the UK should stay fine and dry though.

There is a chance that high pressure will tend to remain a bit further south and closer to Central Europe, allowing frontal systems to keep the northern and western parts of the UK wetter and windier, but this is only a small probability. September is the peak month for Atlantic hurricane activity, and although a hurricane directly impacting the UK is unlikely, we can still feel their effects as they alter the weather patterns in the northern Atlantic. This means that although there are good signals for high pressure now, confidence is perhaps a bit lower than normal as any strong hurricanes that develop can disrupt our settled weather, even from thousands of miles away!

Monday 23 September – Sunday 6 October

A pattern shift to more unsettled conditions

The high pressure area is expected to stick around for much of the rest of September, keeping things fine and dry for most of the UK. Heading into late September it looks like low pressure will begin to establish itself over Scandinavia with the high pressure centre shifting slightly northwest. This will mean occasional weak fronts may reach in from the north or northwest, and temperatures may cool slightly to be nearer to or a touch below average, especially in the north. A significant pattern shift is looking likely in October, with high pressure shifting further away from the UK allowing low pressure tracks to return from the north and west.

This will bring in more unsettled, wet and windy weather with large day-to-day variations more typical of October. There is some uncertainty on where high pressure may retreat to, and it is still expected to be nearby at times. This will mean that between the fronts, there will likely be one or two days of drier and more settled weather. Milder air drawn in from the southwest ahead of frontal systems will make for more changeable temperatures with some chilly days mixed in with some milder ones. Hurricane activity will still be at its peak until mid-October, so again, there is some inherent uncertainty in the forecast if any strong storms develop in the tropical Atlantic. Confidence is medium for the early October forecast, with a chance that high pressure may cling on for a bit longer before the weather shifts to a more typical autumn pattern.

Further ahead

How will the storms in the Atlantic affect our weather here? And will there be fine weather to end September?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

image.thumb.png.aba6a13ff13cf57c89c906f5be1af8d6.png

Saw this gem on Facebook just now

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
2 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

image.thumb.png.aba6a13ff13cf57c89c906f5be1af8d6.png

Saw this gem on Facebook just now

Yeah they are all at it.

Daily mail also has similar.

While we cant rule a very cold winter out. Its silly to forecast it 3 months ahead!

Winters cold.. Shock horror.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
57 minutes ago, Lynxus said:

Yeah they are all at it.

Daily mail also has similar.

While we cant rule a very cold winter out. Its silly to forecast it 3 months ahead!

Winters cold.. Shock horror.

I wonder what weather term they will invent this winter...., snow grenade? Rain tsunami?

Says a lot about the quality of the papers when they rely on weather headlines to increase the number of readers.

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Sadly, people still believe what is written, my dad included

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

From my recollection. nearly all long range models. Including the Chinese and American models.Had a drier than average and warmer than average summer predicted for this year.. prior to the summer  season beginning. we know how that turned out.

Long range forecasts are nonsense

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK weather alert: ‘Beast from East’ warning as Britain braces for coldest winter in YEARS

BRITONS should brace themselves for what could be one of the country’s coldest winters in decades as the “Best from the East” is set to make a return with temperatures as low as minus 14C.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1175432/uk-weather-forecast-long-range-weather-forecast-winter-forecast-snow-beast-from-east

Mild winter confirmed then :oldgood: :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

dont trust any report that confuses the jet stream with the gulf stream... (mail report on cold winter).

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK weather warning: -14C Arctic storm to submerge UK in snow - Beast from the East returns

THE UK is bracing itself for the worst winter temperatures in more than three decades, amid a prediction of -14C Arctic winds and a return of last year's Beast from the East.

Britain faces its coldest winter in more than 30 years, according to one of the most advanced forecasts in UK history. The shocking weather prediction shows a bone-chilling return of an Arctic weather blast, bringing with it one of the country's harshest winters. This means the UK could be set to see the return of the 'Beast from the East' as scientists warn temperatures could plummet to well below freezing.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1175418/UK-weather-warning-forecast-BBC-Arctic-Beast-from-the-East

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Cambridge weather: Beast from the East to return bringing coldest winter in 30 years

 

Cambridge could experience one of the coldest winters in 30 years with the return of the "Beast from the East" bringing icy temperatures and widespread snow.

A freezing vortex of Arctic air will blast the UK in less than four months and remain for weeks, scientists say. Research at University College London (UCL) shows January and February next year will shiver in the coldest temperatures in the past seven years, and the seventh coldest in the past three decades.

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/snow-beast-from-east-weather-16884513

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers and cold snowy winters
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells

Is this research team highly rated? Am certainly more inclined to trust them than James Madden and Nathan Rao!

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-could-be-hit-by-another-beast-from-the-east-this-winter-say-scientists-11805159

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
16 hours ago, snowrye said:

Sadly, people still believe what is written, my dad included

I am a grand dad and don’t believe anything anyone tells me particularly the media and politicians. 

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Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex

Mild Winter it is then! 

 

When will these idiots in the Newspaper Media ever learn? If they were just a bit more honest and a little less sensationalised, they'd probably increase their circulation!

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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
1 hour ago, Wynter said:

Mild Winter it is then! 

 

When will these idiots in the Newspaper Media ever learn? If they were just a bit more honest and a little less sensationalised, they'd probably increase their circulation!

Eh? Have I misread the article? By all accounts it is giving a high Probabilistic that we will have a lower than normal CET along with a -NAO for Jan and Feb? Obviously it's a long way out, but I'm not reading it as showing a Mild Winter? Unless I'm being woooosshed?!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

If I've read it correctly coldest winter since 2012/13 (not really saying a lot as recent winters have generally been mild) which was the seventh coldest in the last 30 years but some newspapers have chosen to sensationalise this by saying 'coldest in 30 years' as per the Express today...but does seem to come from a more professional source this time around (but hey ho look what a majority of the global models were saying for last winter).

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

If I've read it correctly coldest winter since 2012/13 (not really saying a lot as recent winters have generally been mild) which was the seventh coldest in the last 30 years but some newspapers have chosen to sensationalise this by saying 'coldest in 30 years' as per the Express today...but does seem to come from a more professional source this time around (but hey ho look what a majority of the global models were saying for last winter).

what were the models saying last year??

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 hour ago, tcc said:

Eh? Have I misread the article? By all accounts it is giving a high Probabilistic that we will have a lower than normal CET along with a -NAO for Jan and Feb? Obviously it's a long way out, but I'm not reading it as showing a Mild Winter? Unless I'm being woooosshed?!

The post was probably in irony given the track record of recent newspaper articles...

It's another classic spin on the newspapers that doesn't make any sense. The coldest winter since 2012/13 wouldn't be hard given recent mild winters, in fact they forecast a CET of 3.9C for the coming winter. Yet the papers say

'A freezing vortex of Arctic air will blast the UK in less than four months and remain for weeks'. 

How can they jump to that conclusion? If that was the case we would probably see a CET much below freezing and see an extreme off the scale negative NAO. Even December 2010 had a few less cold days at times and a westerly flow between cold spells.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
15 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

what were the models saying last year??

They went for a high probability of a negative NAO but the NAO was in fact highly positive for the winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Yeh this came over on planet rock even with beast from the east in January expected. Considering we had a lot blocking earlier on this year the chances of similar conditions returning for winter I would think unlikely. I always take these predictions and throw them in the bin. I wouldn't be surprised if the original authors were misquoted as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex
2 hours ago, tcc said:

Eh? Have I misread the article? By all accounts it is giving a high Probabilistic that we will have a lower than normal CET along with a -NAO for Jan and Feb? Obviously it's a long way out, but I'm not reading it as showing a Mild Winter? Unless I'm being woooosshed?!

If you read the actual Study that was kindly posted by @Summer Sun above and compare it to the Stories printed in the media, you'll probably understand my own post a bit more.

And as pointed out by @Quicksilver1989, the bit about "Mild Winter" was in jest, directed at the recent track record by the printed media (mostly the Express & Mail) using the likes of Nathan Rao & Piers Corbyn amongst other, to incorrectly predict the weather. 

Edited by Wynter
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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
2 hours ago, Wynter said:

If you read the actual Study that was kindly posted by @Summer Sun above and compare it to the Stories printed in the media, you'll probably understand my own post a bit more.

And as pointed out by @Quicksilver1989, the bit about "Mild Winter" was in jest, directed at the recent track record by the printed media (mostly the Express & Mail) using the likes of Nathan Rao & Piers Corbyn amongst other, to incorrectly predict the weather. 

Ah Gotcha! Thanks (and to Quicksilver!) Well let's hope that there is something in this!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
55 minutes ago, tcc said:

Ah Gotcha! Thanks (and to Quicksilver!) Well let's hope that there is something in this!

I also notice the winter 1974/75 is one of their analogues, I don't think Netweather will be a very happy place this winter if that comes off!

It also reminds me of some index that was proposed in 2014, it had some obscure acronym but they were claiming the model had a high level of skill. They predicted that winter 2014/15 would be very cold and yet it was Atlantic dominated during all three months.

We then never heard of that index again, was called the OPI I think?

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

We then never heard of that index again, was called the OPI I think?

I can't remember exactly either - something like that, to do with high pressure during October and foggy days (I think) and the correlation with colder more blocked winters which followed. Steve Murr was one I remember pushing this theory...

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