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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Just saw the end of the ITV 6.30 news and they finished with a few scenes of the current 'wintry' weather and before this Mary Nightingale said and to quote her 'and after one of the mildest winters on record' - whhaaaaattttttttt!?! do the media only earmark what happened in a winter on how it finished? the previous winter after the 'beast from the east' I remember quite a few quotes saying it being a cold winter...laughable! :oldrofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Chilly easterlies next week
  • Mid-month change
  • Warmer through Easter

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/04/05/john-hammond-month-ahead-things-get-better/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Settled but cooler next week, then changeable

_________________________________

Saturday 6 April—Sunday 14 April

Mild weekend then cool, settled week

As low pressure heads off to the southwest and high pressure builds in strongly to the north, the UK will turn fairly mild for April, with afternoon highs reaching into the mid or upper-teens across the South, and into the low- to mid-teens further north. A weak frontal boundary will be pushed across the UK from the northeast, heading southwest, and bringing showery rain with perhaps the odd rumble of thunder for the Midlands and South on Sunday and Monday. As this front passes, winds will shift to easterly or north-easterly and bring in some noticeably cooler Scandinavian air, that will gradually spread southwards. By Wednesday morning, the entire country will be feeling much cooler, with temperatures running below average.

Despite this cooler weather, things will be largely settled. The north-easterly flow will be mostly dry, but will likely bring in quite a bit of cloud from the North Sea. Nights will be marked by chilly fog and some frost in a few spots, while the afternoons will be partly to mostly cloudy, with the best of the sun lingering in the west. Occasionally some isolated showers will drift into Northeast England and East Scotland, and due to the cooler air these may be wintry or even snow in higher spots. Accumulation will likely be negligible though, as the showers will be very light and widely scattered.
As we move into the weekend, things will begin to warm up as stronger low pressure develops off to the west in the North Atlantic. This will help a ridge of high pressure build across western Europe, bringing some warmer air into the UK from the southwest. There is still some uncertainty on the exact timing of the return of unsettled weather, but late Sunday 14th and into Monday 15th is looking promising.

Monday 15 April—Sunday 21 April

Turning more unsettled, but also milder

Early in the week high pressure to the north will likely have weakened enough to allow a return of more unsettled weather into the UK, and much of western Europe at large. This will also bring in some milder air from the southwest, so any wintry weather is unlikely, especially at low levels. High pressure will be lurking somewhere across Europe this week, and this is the main source of uncertainty. Models are struggling with just where this high pressure might be, and as a result the forecast for the UK has been changing significantly. High pressure located a bit further west will keep most of the unsettled weather over Ireland and Scotland, leaving England and Wales largely fine and dry. A slight shift to the east, and things become wetter and windier for all.

Confidence is still very low for this week overall, but we are reasonably certain that there will be a return to a period of unsettled weather in mid-April. The only question is how long it will last? Towards the weekend of the 20th and 21st there are indications that we will start to see more widespread high pressure across central and western Europe, which will start to push low pressure off to the west and bring more settled weather into the UK. Crucially, this also happens to be the Easter holiday weekend, so there are some growing signs that over the course of the long weekend the weather may be turning from wet and windy to drier, calmer, and with a bit a sunshine.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 5 May

Mostly settled end to April, with fronts at times

As high pressure continues to build strong across Europe, low pressure should be pushed out into the North Atlantic, bringing more settled weather into the UK. The high will be bringing some warmer Mediterranean and North Saharan air up from the south, so it will likely continue to be mild with temperatures slightly above average. However, at times the high may weak slightly and shift a bit further east, allowing one or two days or more unsettled weather to return as a front pushes in from the west.

These look to be short-lived events and there aren't strong signals for any widespread or long-lived wet or windy weather, except for North Scotland, where weak fronts will be a more common sight, keeping things a bit cloudier and rather damp when compared with conditions further south. As with earlier in the month, there is still a bit of uncertainty on where exactly the high pressure will end up, so occasionally these fronts will be able to push further south, with some crossing the country and bringing rain and cloudiness to most places. Temperatures will likely be near or just above average for most of the end of April and start of May, with one or two brief cooler snaps possible with any stronger cold fronts.

Next Update

Can we expect high pressure to make a return as we move into May?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Settled but cooler this week, then changeable.

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 April—Sunday 14 April

A cooler, settled week. Cloudy at times

A weak frontal boundary will linger briefly Wednesday morning across the far south of England, keeping things a bit cloudy down there, but high pressure building in from the north will push it off into the Channel, leaving the UK dry and settled for the rest of the week. However, as a ridge of high pressure builds in, winds will shift easterly to north-easterly and bring in some noticeably cooler Scandinavian air, bringing temperatures down to a few degrees below average for the second half of the week.

High pressure will remain in charge for the rest of the week, keeping things settled. The north-easterly flow will be mostly dry, but will likely bring in quite a bit of cloud from the North Sea at times. Nights will be marked by chilly fog and some frost in a few clearer spots, while the afternoons will be partly to mostly cloudy, with the best of the sun in western and central areas. Occasionally some isolated pockets of drizzle will drift in with some of the thicker cloud banks from the North Sea, and in eastern areas the cloud may linger for most of the day, keeping things dreary and chilly.

As we move into the weekend, an upper level low will drift across Central Europe, which will bring the a slight chance of the odd shower into the Southeast from Saturday. This will also increase the winds in the South, so the weekend will be a bit breezier than the week. The low may also bring in a thicker band of low cloud across the North Sea into the Southeast coast, blanketing East Anglia and possibly reaching into London Sunday, making for a grey finish to the weekend. Further north things will stay settled and dry, with the greatest risk for North Sea low cloud in the Southeast.

Monday 15 April—Sunday 21 April

Turning more unsettled, but also milder

Early in the working week high pressure to the north will likely have weakened enough to allow a return of more unsettled weather into the UK, and much of western Europe at large. This will also bring in some milder air from the southwest. High pressure will be lurking somewhere across Europe this week, and this is the main source of uncertainty. Models are struggling with just where this high pressure might be, and as a result the forecast for the UK has been changing significantly. High pressure located a bit further west will keep most of the unsettled weather over Ireland and Scotland, leaving England and Wales largely fine and dry. A slight shift to the east, and things become wetter and windier for all.

Confidence is still low, but growing for this week overall. We are reasonably certain that there will be a return to a period of unsettled weather mid-week, with an upper level low on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing some showery weather, spreading north on Thursday. Towards the weekend of the 20th and 21st there are indications that we will start to see more widespread high pressure across central and western Europe again, which will start to push low pressure off to the west and bring more settled weather back into the UK. However, the ridge of high pressure is expected to continue heading westwards into the North Atlantic, with a trough of low pressure moving in from the east behind. This may occur on Easter Sunday or perhaps the following Monday, and will bring in a spell of unsettled weather.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 5 May

Warm, settled end of April and start of May.

As the high from earlier in April heads westward into the North Atlantic, a trough of low pressure will replace it from the east. This will bring in a brief spell of unsettled and cooler weather, likely lasting for much of the week starting Monday 22nd. The crucial aspect is what day this unsettled weather will drift in. There is still a lot of uncertainty on the exact timing, so confidence remains low, but the bulk of the Easter weekend is looking to stay settled currently, with the shift to unsettled weather taking place Monday 22nd or Tuesday 23rd .

The wave pattern across Europe and the North Atlantic will continue to track westward, so after several days the low pressure trough will slowly head out into the North Atlantic, with ridging building in behind from the east. This high pressure will bring in much milder air from the south, along with largely settled weather, although the settled weather will likely take a few days to become established. The last full week of April will likely be mostly settled with occasional weak fronts bringing some light rain. By the first week of May, high pressure should be firmly established across the UK, keeping things warm, dry, and settled.

Next Update

While the start of the Easter weekend should be settled, we can hopefully pin down the timing of unsettled weather in the following week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Second 'bomb cyclone' in a month to hit the United States

Snow blizzards and gale-force winds are forecast to strike the central United States, across the US Plains and the Midwest.

The US is braced for its second winter storm in a month with forecasters warning of more heavy snow, freezing temperatures and flooding. Blizzards and gale-force winds will strike across the central United States, across the US Plains and Midwest, running from the Rockies to the Great Lakes from Wednesday into Thursday. The National Weather Service said some areas of western Minnesota and southeast South Dakota could see up to 2.5ft (30in) of snowfal

https://news.sky.com/story/second-bomb-cyclone-in-a-month-to-hit-the-united-states-11689428

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Milder but wetter by Easter
  • Drier end to the month
  • Late frosts still possible

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/04/12/john-hammond-month-ahead-cold-winds-begone/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warming up but briefly unsettled

_________________________________

Saturday 13 April—Sunday 21 April

More unsettled but also warmer

To start the week, high pressure will be the main player for the weather across the UK. However, things will be a bit more unsettled than they were last week. An upper level low in Central Europe over the weekend will bring a few showers into the Southeast, and occasional one or two further north along the east coast of Britain. Cloud will likely be quite variable, but the best of the sun will be in the western and central counties. On Sunday night and Monday, a frontal system in Ireland will bring some cloudiness, stronger winds, and rain into Southwest England and Northern Ireland, but further east is should stay dry. One or two showers are still possible along the east coast, but mainly in the northeast. This will also shift the winds to more southeasterly, tapping into some warmer Mediterranean air. Rain will continue into Tuesday for the southwest before easing, and then things get a bit more uncertain.

There are good indications that high pressure will build back in to the north of the UK and over Scotland from Wednesday, keeping things settled. However, low pressure south in the Bay of Biscay and France while bring scattered sharp and at times thundery showers. There is a bit of uncertainty regarding just how strong the high will build in to the north, and if it is slightly weaker or slightly further north, the low from the south will be able to bring its showery weather into the southern half of the UK from Thursday. Through the end of the week and into the weekend the temperatures will turn warmer, with afternoon highs reaching into the mid or upper-teens in the south, and into the mid-teens in the north.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 28 April

Turning more unsettled, but staying warm

Heading into late April the high pressure across Northern Europe that has been keeping things mostly settled for the UK will begin to slowly slide westwards, with a trough of low pressure developing in its place of Scandinavia and the UK. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the exact timing of the transition to more unsettled weather, and the ridge of high pressure will be fairly slow moving so this will likely be a gradual shift over the course of a few days. The trough of low pressure will eventually bring in more unsettled weather and fronts, along with a cooler northeasterly flow, although temperatures will still remain around or just above average for the time of year.

However, as the week goes on, the trough of low pressure will also shift slowly westwards, and as the low shifts into the North Atlantic, the winds will shift to a southwesterly direction. This will bring in some warmer sub-tropical air, bringing temperatures a bit above average again. Frontal systems will still move through at times, but high pressure building in Eastern Europe will keep them from sweeping across the UK with strong winds and colder, polar air. Overall the last full week of April will be a bit above average for temperatures, and more unsettled than mid-April with occasional frontal systems and spells of rain, but also dry interludes and warmer air from the southwest.

Monday 29 April—Sunday 12 May

May turning settled and continuing the warm trend

The westward moving trough of low pressure will continue to head into the North Atlantic through the end of April and early May. This will in turn be replaced by a slow-moving ridge of high pressure from the east. As with late-April, this will likely be a very gradual shift in the pattern occurring over the course of several days. However, by early May and at least through mid-May, high pressure looks to be the dominant weather feature for the UK and most of Northern and Central Europe.

This will keep the weather settled, calm, and dry for most, although the occasional weak front may briefly bring a spell of cloudiness or light rain to the far north and west. Warm air will continue to feed into Central Europe and spring should establish itself in force during May. There are signals for some warm or very warm spells into mid-May with temperatures generally above average thanks to the sunnier skies and light winds. Dry weather may persist for a significant amount of time in May, so rainfall will likely be below or even well below average.

Next Update

Will the warm trend continue until the middle of May?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warm this week, more unsettled next week

_________________________________

Wednesday 17 April—Sunday 21 April

Largely settled and warm into the weekend

Most parts of the United Kingdom will have calm and settled weather for the rest of this week. This is due to an area of high pressure extending south-westwards across the country. There will be a slight chance of showers across central and eastern England on Wednesday, but otherwise the run-up to the Easter Weekend will be dry and bright with some decent sunny periods. Temperatures have already started to pick up, and it is expected to become warmer still. Friday and Saturday are likely to see temperatures reaching the low to mid-twenties across many parts of the country - quite warm for the time of year.


There will be a chance of some rain in the north-west of Scotland on Saturday and during Saturday night, but this rain should be mainly light. Sunday could see this rain moving into northern England but it will remain fairly light. Scotland looks likely to have a cooler, or maybe 'less warm' day on Sunday with temperatures back to nearer normal for the time of year. It will remain warm in most other areas, with southern England likely to see temperatures in the twenties again. With high pressure and light winds expected, we are likely to see some mist and fog forming overnight. This is most likely in the Midlands and Eastern England on Friday night/Saturday morning, but the odd patch of mist or fog could form elsewhere, in more sheltered areas.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 28 April

An unsettled week of weather

The area of high pressure responsible for the fine and dry weather will shift eastwards, allowing Atlantic weather systems to reach the UK next week. Unfortunately for anyone with outdoor plans, this change is expected to be on Bank Holiday Monday. There is some uncertainty over the details, but it looks as though the South East has the best chance of staying dry and warm on Monday. Other areas are more likely to see cloud and showers or longer spells of rain. It will become cooler, and it may become windy too.


From Tuesday onwards, we expect all areas to be in the more unsettled regime. Low pressure is likely to be nearby, so there will be a chance of showers and rain across the country. There is a chance of some heavy, thundery showers around the middle of next week. Some windy weather is likely, although gales are not expected. It will be cooler than this week, but temperatures are expected to be near normal for the time of year. Whilst we are reasonably confident that there will be a transition to unsettled weather next week, there is chance that low pressure does not linger close to the UK for the whole of the week. If this happens, and there is a roughly 25% chance of this, then the end of the week will be drier and less windy again. It may even become a little warmer.

Monday 29 April—Sunday 12 May

Becoming more settled again in May

There is some uncertainty over the forecast for the end of April and first half of May. The most likely case is that the low pressure system(s) affecting north-western Europe will weaken and move away to the north. As this happens, high pressure will build back across the UK, bringing a return to relatively calm and dry weather. Temperatures are also expected to lift above normal again for most areas, with the south and east likely to be warmest - there will be the chance of some very warm weather moving in from France, perhaps with some thunderstorms. This high pressure dominated pattern is likely to persist through much of the first third of May.

After this, there are indications that the ridge of high pressure will drift further west at times, allowing for some spells of cooler, wetter and winder weather to develop. It is worth noting that we are not expecting any widespread and sustained wet and windy weather. In fact, we think rainfall will return to near normal, with temperatures near normal in most areas too. The uncertainty in the forecast means we are also seeing a couple of alternatives to our most likely forecast. The first is that high pressure remains over the UK, so we see a continuation of the dry and settled weather. This has a roughly 30% chance of occurring. There is a lesser chance of low pressure becoming more of a feature, with wetter windier weather developing in May. There is only a ~10% chance of this though.

Next Update

We'll be able to give a bit more detail for the weather at the end of April and start of May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

More rubbish from the 6.30pm ITV News with Mary Nightingale...seems like it's becoming a theme with them to close it with an article about the weather with a statement which is generally incorrect. Talking about the impending warm Easter she said 'after the long cold winter' - whaaatttt!?! and then waffled on about how brits will generally be staying in this country rather than travelling abroad to get a tan but after this then produced a satellite image of the UK bathed in sun but not now but back in February when it just happened to be very mild...talk about contradicting themselves!!!...and I thought the Beeb was bad. :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A fine and warm Easter. Often settled in May.

_________________________________

Saturday 20 April—Sunday 21 April

Warm, dry and sunny for most of us over Easter!

With a large area of high pressure located overhead the UK during the Easter weekend, then this means most of us will have a dry, settled and calm period of weather. Early patchy mist and even a few fog patches will soon burn off by mid-morning on both Saturday and Sunday to leave long periods of sunshine. It will be very warm for late April, with maximum temperatures reaching the low 20Cs widely over England and Wales and locally above 20C in parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland. Across some inland central and southern parts of England, maximum temperatures of 24C and perhaps even 25C are possible. Around the coasts, it will be lovely and sunny for many areas, but the maximum temperatures will not be as high as inland, as sea breezes develop during the daytime. Some sea mist and fog could also roll into coastal areas at times, especially in the east. On Easter Sunday, an area of low pressure tracking eastwards close to Iceland will nudge fronts closer to the far north and west of Scotland, so turning cloudier here with the odd patch of light rain and drizzle. The majority of Scotland should stay dry, though.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 28 April

Risk of a few thundery showers.

The forecast for next week has been causing a few headaches over the last few days. Initially, it seemed likely that we would see Atlantic low pressure areas moving down across the UK and completely displacing the high pressure away to the east. Such a scenario would have seen a big change in the weather, with a sharp temperature drop and breezy and showery weather, much more typical of April in the UK.

However, it now looks likely that an extensive area of high pressure, centred over Scandinavia will remain a key influence next week, blocking the eastwards progress of north Atlantic low pressure areas from moving across the UK and instead sending them down to southern France, Spain, Portugal and Italy. If you know anybody on holiday down there during this particular week, it is likely that the UK will have better weather than they will!

The good news for people with outdoor plans is that next week is looking like the warm weather will continue, as winds remaining from a balmy south or south-easterly direction. We do need to keep a close eye on an area of low pressure that may well nudge northwards from Spain across western parts of France and towards the far south-west of England during the middle of next week. This will contain some warm and humid air and threatens to push a few thunderstorms northwards over some southern and western parts of the UK. Wednesday 24th and Thursday 25th look most prone to these storms, with south-west England and Wales most at risk. As is often the case with thunderstorms, some places will see a few downpours and plenty of lightning, yet a few miles away it will remains dry. A much lower risk of storms over central, eastern and northern areas.

Towards the end of the week, some wet and breezy weather may push in off the Atlantic into Scotland, but there is some uncertainty on this and it could end up staying drier here.

Monday 29 April—Sunday 12 May

High pressure often in charge

The end of April and first half of May is very likely to see further 'blocked' weather patterns over the UK and the wider environment of the north Atlantic and Europe. This means a reduction in the normal west to east wind flows and 'jet stream' that typically push areas of low pressure from the north Atlantic into northern Europe. There is strong evidence in the latest forecast guidance to suggest that high pressure areas will continue to be more extensive than normal close to the UK and so we see reason to expect that the UK will often be drier than average, with winds often light and variable, rather than strong and sustained westerlies.

The main challenge we have with this forecast is getting the timings right. It seems likely that the high pressure areas will move around a bit during these 2 weeks and could shift to the west of the UK at times. When high pressure shifts to the west of the UK, then this pulls in winds from the north and north-east, a rather chilly direction, even in late spring! So, while it is difficult to pin down the timing of this, we suggest that a cooler interlude, perhaps with some wet and breezy weather as well, is likely at some point in these 2 weeks.

However, taking a broader view for the 2 weeks as a whole, there are some good signals for high pressure to still reside overhead the UK on many of the days. With the widespread sunshine this will bring, then we would expect some dry and warm spells. It could still be rather chilly at night under this high pressure and a local frost cannot be excluded in a few locations. To get warm and humid nights we would need southerly or south-westerly winds and the high pressure positioned to our east instead.

Next Update

After Easter is over, we'll be looking in detail on the final week of April and firming up on the signals throughout the first half of May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Easter warmth easing this week. Changeable weather

_________________________________

Wednesday 24 April—Sunday 28 April

Warmth fading, and turning more unsettled

After a glorious spell of largely dry, sunny and very warm weather over the Easter weekend, changes are afoot in the atmosphere now that will gradually introduce more unsettled weather back across the UK.  Recent days have seen a vast area of high pressure over Scandinavia and central and eastern Europe influencing the UK's weather, feeding in warm air from the south-east.  Low pressure has been gathering strength over Spain, Portugal, Biscay and north-west Africa and it is this feature that will introduce the weather changes over the UK this week.  The main uncertainty in recent updates has been how quickly and how far north-east this feature would push up across the UK, but there is now much better agreement in the forecast.

During the middle of this week, there is a slight risk that rain showers may bring some Saharan dust deposits, especially over central, northern and eastern areas.  You may see these on your car after a shower of rain. This is due to recent strong winds and thunderstorms over the northern Sahara, whipping up the fine Saharan sand and dust into the lower atmosphere, before being transported northwards by the aforementioned Spanish low pressure area. Temperatures falling back closer to average as we head through the second half of this week, as cooler air sweeps down from the far north Atlantic and Iceland.  Daytime maximum temperatures will be some 10ºC lower than they were over Easter in many areas.  A deepening low pressure area on Saturday looks set to spread cloud and rain eastwards, while winds over Wales and the southern half of England could become strong.  Sunday should see more sunshine than Saturday, but there will still be scattered showers.

Monday 29 April—Sunday 5 May

Cool and unsettled for a time, drier later

Similar to April last year, despite a very warm and dry spell in the third week of the month, the weather likes to remind us that we are still in the middle of spring and we have not yet reached summer, with a noticeably cool and unsettled spell to round off the month. With high pressure intensifying close to Iceland, this will deflect the track of North Atlantic low pressure areas towards the UK. 
Each one will bring extensive cloud cover and spells of rain, with the heaviest and most widespread of this falling over the southern half of the UK. Chilly north-easterly winds over northern areas, but this will also mean that sheltered western parts of Scotland could end up with plenty of dry weather and sunny spells, despite the lack of warmth. Snow seems unlikely, despite the cool and unsettled pattern, but we cannot completely exclude the threat of some wintry precipitation over the mountains in the north. 

Gardeners should keep a very close eye on forecast updates, as cool, clear nights between the low pressure areas could threaten a late season frost, especially over northern parts. There is some uncertainty during the latter part of this week and confidence is fairly low as a result. The most likely outcome is that we see high pressure becoming a little more widespread closer to the UK, with the unsettled weather tending to fade as low pressure slips away to the east. With winds often from the north, the nights will still be chilly, even if the daytimes feel pleasant in the sunshine. There is a 25-30% chance that high pressure builds more strongly over the UK and then the near continent, rather like it did this time last year. This would bring a warmer scenario, with temperatures back up into the low 20Cs by daytime.

Monday 6 May—Sunday 19 May

A lack of sustained wet & windy weather

The first full week in May should see high pressure over Iceland nudge closer to the UK. This will serve to reduce the chilly north-easterly wind flow and introduce a slightly warmer weather pattern. 
It is encouraging to see the latest longer range forecast models both predicting a similar story, which helps with forecast confidence. High pressure areas in late spring are often associated with plenty of sunshine, which allows daytime temperatures to rise quickly in the mornings, following cool and locally misty starts. However, as we saw last May, stubborn areas of coastal mist and fog can result in large differences in the weather over just a few miles. 

Some beaches can smothered in cold, dank, foggy weather all day, while just down the coast, or a few miles inland it can be warm and sunny. 
The main risk on the forecast is that the high pressure is less resilient and slips away to the south and east during the week, allowing Atlantic fronts to introduce a wetter and windier picture. By mid-May, confidence in the forecast becomes low. The most likely outcome is for further extensive high pressures areas over northern Europe, overhead the UK at times. The high pressure areas should be located further east than in early May, allowing the UK to tap into some much warmer southerly winds at times. There is about a 30% risk that high pressure could be located too far east to bring dry and settled weather to the UK, so wetter and breezier weather would be more likely.

Next Update

We saw some big week-to-week swings in weather type over the UK during April. May looks likely to see more changeable weather patterns. We'll attempt to add more detail for mid-May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Calmer next week
  • Drier weather returns
  • Temperatures uncertain

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/04/26/john-hammond-month-ahead-stormy-weather-blip/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

May starts changeable, but pressure should rise

_________________________________

Saturday 27 April—Sunday 5 May

A stormy start, but turning more settled

Chilly with some mist or fog for central and eastern areas to start the new week, but it will remain wet in the west and south-west. It may become dry in the west overnight, although an active warm front will soon roll into western Britain on Tuesday, perhaps bringing some persistent rain later in the day. All areas could see some rain on Wednesday, which is likely to be quite cloudy as a set of fronts lie over the country. Pressure should build just to the west of the UK later in the week, perhaps allowing a brief but quite chilly north to north-westerly airflow to develop for a time, with an air frost possible locally in Scotland. As we approach the Bank Holiday weekend, it looks like high pressure will become extensive across Britain from the southwest. It should remain fine and dry for the southern and eastern half of the country, and it could warm up nicely too. However, northern and western areas will be more at risk of seeing some breezy and unsettled weather.

Monday 6 May—Sunday 12 May

A brief return to unsettled and cool conditions

The week should start on a dry and settled note for many areas, with high pressure likely to be lingering close to the country. Some rather warm weather is still possible in the south and southeast, while fronts could bring breezier conditions and some patchy rain to northern areas. It looks like high will soon slide to the east, opening the door to the Atlantic which is expected to send areas of low pressure east across the country, bringing a period of wetter, cooler and windier weather for a few days.

Northern and western Britain should experience the brunt of the unsettled weather, although the wet spell should not last for very long in southern Britain, maintaining drier than average weather which has persisted here since the middle of March. Towards the end of the week, high pressure will begin to build back across the south, and so the week could finish as it started here - with the weekend potentially seeing some dry, calm and warm weather once again. It will take a bit longer for high pressure to reach northern areas though, with unsettled weather perhaps lingering through the weekend.

Monday 13 May—Sunday 26 May

High pressure still holding on

By this stage, confidence in the forecast is rather low, with a weak jet stream producing rather slow-moving weather systems over the UK, which can be difficult to predict at longer ranges. However, we still anticipate pressure to be higher than normal close to the UK. This should allow drier and calmer weather to develop quite widely, with warm weather at times and temperatures above normal for the time of year.

As sea-surface temperatures are still rather cool, areas of low cloud and mist could give some damp, dull and drizzly weather around the coasts - although this could be quite localised, with sunshine possible just a few miles away. As the sun climbs ever higher in the sky, slow moving, heavy downpours and thunderstorms could threaten the dry weather, particularly in southern and central Britain. The main risk to the forecast is that low pressure in the North Atlantic moves across the UK, bringing a wet and windy spell.

Next Update

As we look towards the end of May, could the end of meteorological spring give us an early start to summer?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cold shock in early May, but pressure building

_________________________________

Wednesday 1 May—Sunday 5 May

Turning much colder this weekend

An old front will bring outbreaks of rain to much of western and central Britain on Wednesday, with Northern Ireland and the far west of Great Britain experiencing the best of the sunshine. Outbreaks of rain are expected to linger across northern and eastern Britain overnight, while a strong cold front will bring further spells of rain to Scotland and northern England on Thursday. Meanwhile, heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out across Wales, southern and central England. It looks like rain will linger across northern and north-eastern areas overnight, while the showers fade in the south and an increasingly cold airmass brings wintry showers to the far north of Scotland later in the night.

Through Friday, a very cold airmass will dig south across the country behind a cold front, which will bring rain and drizzle to central Britain. Any sunshine across southern England could encourage a few showers to develop, while further wintry showers will continue across northern Scotland and the Northern Isles, where snow is expected to fall down to low levels. Cold in the north on Friday night, with sleet and snow showers edging south towards North Sea coasts of England.  Saturday will be a cold and raw-feeling day for much of central and eastern Britain, particularly when exposed to the northerly wind. Further wintry showers are likely in the east, and these may move inland across southern and central England during the day. The west will be best, as it will be dry here with sunny spells. As high pressure slides south-east across the country on Sunday, it will remain dry with light winds for most, but a little on the chilly side. Cloudier with some patchy rain in northern Scotland though.

Monday 6 May—Sunday 12 May

Low pressure moving in from the west

Next week will start on a chilly note, with high pressure centred over southern Britain maintaining dry and calm weather for most. Temperatures will remain a little below average, while northern Britain - particularly Scotland - could continue to see rather damp and cloudy weather, as a front lingers across the region. Through the middle of the week, we must turn our attention back to the Atlantic, as an area of low pressure is expected to move steadily across the country from the west.

This will bring breezy and more widespread wet weather to many areas. There is some uncertainty over the northern extent of this unsettled weather, and there is a chance that Scotland could escape with largely dry but quite chilly conditions. By the end of the week, it looks like the low pressure influence will start to wane, with high pressure attempting to build in from the west or south-west once again. This should give some drier and calmer weather, with temperatures around or perhaps slightly warmer than normal in southern Britain by this stage.

Monday 13 May—Wednesday 26 June

Pressure slowly building through May

During the second full week of May, we expect a slow expansion of high pressure from the North Atlantic, across the UK and into Scandinavia with time. This will mark a major pattern transition in the weather, but also makes it a rather challenging week to predict the detail. The main risk of any rain will be across northern and eastern Britain early in the week, although building pressure across the country ought then to bring warmer and drier conditions to all areas. High pressure is likely to remain closest to Scotland, which is where the most widespread dry and calm conditions should persist. Occasional thundery showers could develop in the south.

With sea temperatures still rather cold and light winds, some low cloud and fog could linger around various coasts too, with the best of the sunshine likely further inland. By the final third of May, it seems that high pressure will become located to the east of the UK, which should allow warmer south or south-easterly winds to develop. It should be warm or very warm, and there is even the potential for it to become hot for a time. However, largely dry conditions will persist for many areas, with any rainfall only coming from sporadic heavy showers or thunderstorms during the afternoons.

Next Update

The middle of May is a rather tricky forecast period; we will see if there is more detail to be found through mid-month on Friday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Cold then wet
  • Drier and warmer late May
  • Prolonged heat unlikely

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/05/03/john-hammond-month-ahead-whatever-next/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cold wet start to May, but warming up later

_________________________________

Saturday 4 May—Sunday 12 May

Cold, breezy and wet next week

On Saturday many central and eastern areas will remain dry with good sunny spells, while it will feel particularly cold in the east, thanks to a keen northerly breeze and frequent showers, some of which will be wintry, perhaps bringing sleet and small hail at times. A cold night will follow, with a frost in places. On Sunday, the majority of Britain will remain dry with some sunshine, although it could become quite cloudy during the afternoon. Winds will be lighter for most, and so it won't feel as cold, although further wintry showers are likely for northern Scotland and the Northern Isles.
In stark contrast to Easter, Bank Holiday Monday will remain cold, with a weak front bringing some patchy rain to central portions of the country. In the south, the best of the sunshine will be during the morning, as it will become rather cloudy around the middle of the day.

Northern areas will see good sunny spells and patchy cloud throughout, although there is a threat of some heavy, wintry showers developing across Scotland during the daytime. Another cold night will follow, with a frost likely in the north where skies remain clearest. It will remain largely dry with variable cloud on Tuesday; still chilly though, with a few wintry showers perhaps edging into Scotland.  A significant change is expected from mid-week onwards, as a deep depression extends across the country from the south-west, powered by a more active Atlantic jet stream. There will be some persistent rain at times, and it looks to be rather windy in the south on Wednesday. It will remain chilly for all areas, particularly in Scotland. Only by the end of next week does it look like the low-pressure influence may start to wane from the south.

Monday 13 May—Sunday 19 May

A short unsettled spell after mid-month

Towards the middle of the month, it looks like high pressure will build across the UK from the south-west, forcing low pressure and rain-bearing fronts to remain well away from our shores. So, for a few days around mid-month, there should be a period of dry, calm and relatively settled weather, particularly across the southern half of the country where there could be a couple of rather mild or warm days.  This settled period of weather will soon be over, however, as it seems like a few days of slightly wetter and breezier weather will develop just after mid-month.

Weak areas of low pressure may move in from the Atlantic once again, and many regions can expect a few bands of frontal rain to move in from the west. The wettest conditions are likely over northern and western Britain, while parts of southern England could see largely dry conditions. However, confidence is especially low for this period, with a lack of a defining signal suggested by the weather models. There is a chance that high pressure remains stronger over the UK for longer, bringing calmer and warmer conditions on many more days.

Monday 20 May—Sunday 2 June

Pressure building and temperatures rising

Although the final third of May could begin with weak areas of low pressure remaining close to the UK, perhaps bringing some wet weather for a time, we anticipate high pressure to build across central and northern Europe, to the east of the UK. This gives an increased chance of some widespread and sustained warm weather developing, with winds potentially wafting up from the south-east. 
High pressure should remain close enough to maintain largely dry and calm conditions across most of the country, although fronts edging in from the west could stall over Ireland and western Britain, giving some more widespread rain and perhaps one or two windier days here. Otherwise, it seems that many areas can expect a good deal of fine and sunny weather, although it may become warm enough to trigger one or two afternoon heavy and thundery downpours for southern and central areas. However, these won't provide any meaningful rain in what looks to be a rather dry end to the month.

Next Update

We will take another look at the end of May and whether it could deliver a significant late-Spring hot spell.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Warm spell
  • Prolonged heat unlikely
  • Mixed start to June

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/05/10/john-hammond-month-ahead-fancy-change/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Remaining changeable with some fine and dry spells

_________________________________

Wednesday 8 May – Sunday 12 May

Wet and windy at first, but drier this weekend

Wednesday will be an unsettled day as an Atlantic low pressure system moves across the UK. This low will bring showers and longer spells of rain to most parts of the country, the rain accompanied by strong winds in some areas. It will be a cool day, particularly in those parts of the country affected by the most persistent rain. The low pressure system will linger overnight and will only slowly move into the North Sea on Thursday. The unsettled weather will continue, although it should become less windy later on Thursday.

Friday will be a mixed day of sunny spells and showers. Showers could affect any part of the country, and there will be the potential for the odd sharp shower to develop. Saturday should be a dry day for most of the UK, although there will be the chance of a few showers developing, most likely in the east. Saturday night should be dry with light winds, and some mist and fog may develop. High pressure is expected to build in from the south-west on Sunday. As a result, the day should be dry for the bulk of the UK, although a passing frontal system could bring some rain to the north-west of the country during the day or overnight. Temperatures will return to near normal for the time of year.

Monday 13 May – Sunday 19 May

Dry and warm at first, then turning cooler

High pressure should remain close to the UK for much of next week, broadly sitting over the country at first before drifting a little further north or north-west for the second half of the week. This means that the first half of the week will be largely dry with relatively light winds. It should be a little warmer too, with many areas seeing temperatures a degree or more above normal for the time of year. The second half of the week will be more changeable. As high pressure moves away, there will be an increasing chance of cooler north-easterly winds developing, so temperatures are likely to return to near normal in central and eastern parts of the UK.

It should remain relatively dry though, with the high pressure area somewhat limiting the progress of weather systems towards our shores. There is a chance that the high pressure area will move even further north or north-westwards than we expect it to. If this happens, then the chance of cool north to north-easterly winds increases. There would also be the chance of rain moving into southern areas of England and Wales. This alternative scenario has a roughly one in three chance of happening.

Monday 20 May – Sunday 2 June

Remaining changeable despite nearby high pressure

The final third of May and start of June are expected to be rather changeable. High pressure should bring spells of calm and dry weather, but this will be punctuated by spells of unsettled, wet and possibly windy weather as low pressure systems approach the UK. On balance temperatures are expected to be near or a little below normal at first, but lifting above normal in many areas later this month and for the start of June. Rainfall will be near normal in many areas, although there are indications of drier than normal weather in some parts of the country later in the month.

It remains to be seen whether this means that we will have a fine and dry Spring Bank Holiday, and it is worth noting that we have relatively low confidence in the forecast details for the end of May. For example, there is a chance that high pressure remains to the east of the UK, this making it much warmer than normal in most areas but wetter in the west. If the high pressure area sits to the west, then we could see cooler weather in the east and drier weather in the west. The details should become clearer over the coming week or so.

Further ahead

We will take another look at the end of May, including the next Bank Holiday, and the start of June - will dry, warm weather look more or less likely?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Remaining changeable with some fine and dry spells

_________________________________

Saturday 11 May – Sunday 19 May

Largely fine with high pressure

High pressure will become increasingly influential across the UK this weekend, although scattered showers are expected to develop on Saturday, some of which could be heavy during the afternoon with a rumble of thunder possible in the south. It will remain rather chilly in Scotland though, where the showers will be wintry over the hills and mountains. Sunday will be dry and fine with sunny periods for many areas, as high pressure becomes centred over the country, although one or two afternoon showers may develop in southern and eastern Britain. The sunshine may turn rather hazy in Northern Ireland and western Scotland though, with a warm front bringing a few spots of rain to the far north-west and Northern Isles overnight.

High pressure will remain centred just to the east of the UK during the first half of next week, bringing widespread dry, settled weather and sunny periods nationwide. Just a little patchy cloud is likely to develop during the afternoons. The warmest weather is expected in north-west Scotland, where temperatures will rise into the low-20s Celsius, and could reach 24 Celsius by Wednesday, which is likely to be the warmest day of the week. From Thursday onwards, the high will slide slowly north-west, to become centred to the north of Scotland. This should encourage less warm north-easterly winds to move in, keeping it rather cool along eastern coasts of England and Scotland where areas of low cloud could drift onshore at times. By Friday, low pressure will edge towards Britain from the south, bringing more general cloud, outbreaks of rain or showers and somewhat breezier conditions. North-west Scotland is likely to keep the driest and sunniest weather.

Monday 20 May – Sunday 26 May

Slowly turning wetter and more unsettled

Early in the following week, it seems that the high will edge back south across the UK, forcing low pressure south towards central Europe. Although the week may start on an unsettled and breezy note with some showers or outbreaks of rain, it is looking like becoming dry around mid-week, although it may be rather cool with north-easterly winds lingering. Once again, western and north-western Britain may well see the sunniest and warmest weather, while many eastern coasts of England and Scotland will remain chilly with areas of low cloud and one or two showers or spots of rain possible.

Towards the end of the week, the weather looks to become more variable once again, with low pressure areas likely to move closer to the UK from the west or south-west. These will bring bands of rain and occasional showers to western and southern Britain in particular, and the week may end on a rather wet and breezy note here. Rainfall should be lower further north and east, although even these areas may see one or two days with heavy, thundery showers. Temperatures will be around or slightly above average for many areas, with more frequent south or south-easterly winds bringing the highest temperatures to southern and eastern Britain.

Monday 27 May – Sunday 9 June

Higher pressure building more widely over Europe

Towards the end of May, it seems that low pressure areas close to the UK will begin to ease, as we start to see signs of high pressure building north-east from Eastern Europe. Confidence is rather low on exactly when this process will happen and how long it will take, although the most likely outcome is that we will see fronts bringing outbreaks of rain and showers for a few days, before pressure builds nationwide during final days of the month. This will force the typical low pressure track south across southern Europe and the Mediterranean, while it becomes to become drier and calmer across the British Isles through the first part of June. It should become increasingly warm too, with the potential for some very warm weather in the south and south-east.

The southern half of the country will be most at risk of occasional thundery downpours, while Scotland could see essentially dry and calm conditions predominate. However, confidence drops away by this stage, as the jet stream becomes increasingly weak and meandering during the summer months, leading to uncertainty over the potential location of low pressure systems across the North Atlantic, and therefore on how extensive high pressure could be across northern Europe. Indeed, there is a risk that low pressure in the Atlantic continues to dominate our weather into early June, as higher pressure remains well to the east. This could result in some hot plumes of air moving up from the south, but also bring a risk of widespread thunderstorms.

Further ahead

Will central and eastern Britain see any useful rain as we head into June, or will high pressure maintain largely dry weather?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

An unsettled end to May, but calmer in June

_________________________________

Wednesday 15 May – Sunday 19 May

High pressure moving away

High pressure has been located close to the UK during the first half of this week, with most parts of the country seeing a good deal of fine and dry weather, and with temperatures above normal for the time of year in many places. The fine weather is expected to continue on Wednesday, with most places seeing a lot of warm sunshine, although the sunshine will turn hazy as high cloud spreads in from the west during the day. Temperatures are expected to rise above 20 Celsius in many areas, approaching the mid-twenties in the warmest areas, likely to be somewhere in Scotland. Wednesday is likely to be the warmest day of the week. On Thursday, the high pressure area will slide northwards, becoming centred close to northern Scandinavia.

At the same time, a low pressure system over mainland Europe will drift northwards, marking the start of a spell of unsettled weather. The first sign of this will be cooler weather on Thursday, thanks to brisk easterly or north-easterly winds. Friday will see rain affecting England and Wales, perhaps affecting some areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland later. The weekend will see showers and rain affecting most parts of the UK at some point. There will be the chance of some heavy and thundery downpours too, most likely in the south. Temperatures will drop back below normal and it will be much cloudier than earlier in the week.

Monday 20 May – Sunday 26 May

Changeable weather for much of the week

The low pressure system which moves towards the UK at the end of this week should start to move away again at the start of next week. High pressure could briefly build back across the UK, but there is a signal for low pressure systems to pass close to or over the UK at times. All of this means that the start of the week is likely to see showers and rain affecting some parts of the country, but the rest of the week will see a mix of dry and bright spells interspersed with occasional showers and rain. Temperatures are likely to be near or above normal across the UK, with it warmest around the middle of the week.

As well as an increase in daytime temperatures, it should be a little warmer at night too and there is no significant risk of overnight frosts. Most places will be a little drier than normal too, although Scotland and Northern Ireland will see rainfall nearer to normal. Winds will be relatively light in most areas. The most likely alternative to our expected forecast is for high pressure to extend more strongly across the UK and Ireland around the middle of the week. This would bring dry conditions to all areas, including Scotland and Northern Ireland, but could also bring chillier air in from the north or north-east.

Monday 27 May – Sunday 9 June

Higher pressure building more widely over Europe

The last week of May and first few days of June are likely to see a continuation of the changeable weather. We expect to see low pressure systems move eastwards across the UK towards Scandinavia, interspersed with spells of drier and calmer weather. Temperatures will continue around or a little above normal for the time of year, and it will be wettest in the north and west of the country, with the south and east relatively dry - fairly typical for the time of year. The first full week of June should see a slight change to the pattern. We expect to see high pressure extending across more of Northern Europe, including the UK and Ireland.

This should mean that we will see drier and less windy weather across the whole of the country, with temperatures above normal in most areas too. Confidence is growing that we will see this dry and increasingly warm start to June. However, when looking so far ahead there is always a level of uncertainty. This time, the main alternative scenario is that high pressure becomes centred a little further north than we currently expect it too. If this happens then we could see showers or rain, perhaps thundery, affecting the south of the UK. However, even if high pressure is further north, most of the UK would still be relatively calm and warm.

Further ahead

Will the forecast for June still look as summery, or will the changeable May weather linger a little longer?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Showery into next week
  • Cool Holiday Weekend
  • Mixed weather in June

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/05/17/john-hammond-month-ahead-summer-2018-unlikely/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable for the rest of May, but fine by June

_________________________________

Saturday 18 May – Sunday 26 May

A mixed bag for mid-May

Saturday will be rather wet and cloudy across Scotland, with outbreaks of rain pushing in from the east. This will keep it rather cool and dull, although England and Wales will see sunny spells and scattered showers develop, some of which will be heavy with the odd rumble of thunder possible. These will slowly ease overnight, leaving clear periods and a few mist or fog patches, although Scotland will continue to see some patchy rain. For many areas, Sunday will be the better day of the weekend, with more widespread sunny spells and temperatures a little higher than on Saturday. The sunshine will trigger some slow moving hit-and-miss showers through the afternoon, although many areas will also remain dry.

Next week will continue where the weekend left off, with light winds, sunny periods and some fair-weather cloud for many on Monday, but a few showers are also likely, some of which could again be heavy. More general rain may edge across Scotland from the east on Monday night and Tuesday, while the rest of the country will continue to see bright or sunny spells with just a few showers. Confidence is unusually low for the middle of next week, although it looks most likely that high pressure will build across the UK from the south or south-west. This will bring a lot of dry and calm weather, and it could become rather warm in the south, with any breezier and wetter weather limited to Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, there is around a 40% risk that low pressure becomes more widespread across the country from the west, bringing wetter and breezier weather for all. Either way, by next weekend, we should see a return to more widespread wet and breezy conditions nationwide.

Monday 27 May – Sunday 2 June

High pressure often to the south-west

Towards the end of May, it looks like high pressure will most often be centred to the west or south-west of the British Isles. This will allow occasional bands of rain and fronts to move south-east across the country, as areas of low pressure track east between Iceland and northern Scotland. All areas are likely to see some rain at times, although the driest and calmest weather is likely in southern and western Britain, where high pressure will most frequently ridge up from the south-west. This could also promote some rather warm weather to develop for a few days across southern Britain - although the warmth will likely be short-lived, as further fronts and Atlantic winds from the west or north-west bring cooler and wetter spells.

There are some indications that high pressure will begin to extend its influence north across Britain by early June, which should allow more widespread dry and calm conditions to develop (and prevent low-pressure areas bringing more widespread rain and winds). However, some uncertainty on the extent of low pressure across the country creeps into the forecast by this stage. This is most likely a consequence of intense thunderstorm activity which is expected across the central USA over the next few days. These thunderstorms can often generate large perturbations in the jet stream, the fast-flowing ribbon of air about 6- miles up in the atmosphere. These can often travel thousands of miles across the Atlantic towards Europe, and can be rather tricky for the computer models to accurately predict.

Monday 3 June – Sunday 16 June

Strong signals for intensifying high pressure

As high pressure continues to build across the UK during early June, there should be a lot of dry and calm weather to start the month, and temperatures should rise above normal for the time of year as warmer southerly or south-westerly airflows develop. In fact, southern parts of the country could see a couple of very warm days. It does look like the first half of June will continue this rather settled theme, with low pressure areas passing well to the north of the British Isles, and high pressure slowly shifting north towards northern Europe and Scandinavia. Many areas will be drier than normal; dry conditions may become widespread across Scotland and Northern Ireland, which are expected to remain closest to the high pressure centre.

It will be warmer than normal for all areas, although at present, it seems like heatwave conditions may struggle to develop. An area of lower pressure looks to develop to the south-west of Britain as we advance further into June. This could allow one or two heavy showers or thunderstorms to break out across southern areas at times, but these won't provide any meaningful rain for the gardens and fields which will no doubt be parched dry by this stage. Indeed, the main uncertainty is with regards to how far north this low pressure ends up; there is around a 30% chance that the low develops closer to southern Britain, bringing breezier and wetter weather to the south.

Further ahead

Will high pressure break to give a much-needed spell of rain to the UK, or will the expected fine start to summer continue?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK weather: Brits to bake in one of 'hottest summer's ever' starting with 30C June

The Met Office has predicted there are likely to be "above average temperatures" from June to August

Britain is set to bask in its hottest summer ever as forecasters predict a three months of sizzling temperatures. By mid-June it is expected the mercury will have soared to 30C - making way for similar highs that we saw last year. The hottest day was in July when temperatures reached 35.3C in Faversham, Kent. The Met Office has predicted there are likely to be "above average temperatures" from June to August, raising hopes that we could see another scorching summer.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-brits-bake-one-16168713?_ga=2.247569924.2035330500.1558337646-1108786294.1558337646

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