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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mixed outlook to start 2019

Wednesday 19 December—Sunday 23 December

Wet and breezy at times but mild.

Through the remainder of this week, it will be wet and breezy at times but generally mild, particularly in the south. On Wednesday and Thursday, most areas will have bright or sunny intervals but with a brisk southwesterly wind bringing showers for some. The showers will be most frequent in the west of the UK where a few of the showers could be heavy and thundery. Southeastern fringes of the UK, particularly Kent and Sussex, will also have some heavy showers.

Highs will range from around 6 or 7 Celsius over Scotland to nearer 10 or 11C over southern Britain. On Friday, outbreaks of rain are expected to sweep northeastwards across the country, perhaps giving way to brighter but windy weather for the southern half of the UK. This weekend is likely to see some showers or longer spells of rain. Sunday currently looks like the wetter day of the weekend with more widespread rain.

Monday 24 December—Sunday 30 December

Unsettled in Scotland. Quiet further south.

Through next week, including the Christmas period, westerly winds are likely to bring wet and breezy conditions at times to northern areas of the UK, particularly western Scotland. Further south, it is likely to be often drier and less breezy, thanks to an area of high pressure not far away to the southwest of the country. However, there could be a lot of cloud at times, particularly over the western half of the country.

Temperatures next week are likely to be variable, but on average it should be a little milder than expected for December for many. Occasional night frosts are possible, particularly in the south and southwest under lighter winds there. Chances of a white Christmas appear to be rather low. We're more likely to see a wet Christmas in some areas, particularly in the north where there will be some rain at times.

Monday 31 December—Sunday 13 January

Dry and calm for a time, then turning wetter.

The start of 2019 looks likely to bring a relatively dry and calm spell of weather to England, Wales and Northern Ireland. However, with lighter winds, there will be an increased chance of some overnight frost and fog. In Scotland, breezier conditions are more likely to prevail with temperatures a little above the seasonal average and rain at times.

For the second week of January, there are indications that areas of low pressure may move in from the Atlantic, bringing a change to breezier and wetter conditions across large parts of the UK. Temperatures are favoured to fall, bringing a risk of some snow mixed in with the rain at times, particularly over northern parts of the UK. However, there is a chance that much milder conditions prevail. Furthermore, any significant or prolonged cold weather should hold-off until at least the second half of January.

Next Update

More changeable weather on the way for January?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

What a yawn fest from the BBC.

Yes not a great update from them ..

These low heights to our NW look like continuing to be a real bane for coldies, lets hope things change in the new year

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Final met office 10-day trend for 2018 

After Christmas

High pressure
Mostly dry

Frost and fog

Longer range SSW

Very high chance
Increase likelihood of colder weather in January 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

2019: close to record-breaking year, forecasts Met Office

Quote

 

The Met Office global temperature forecast suggests that 2019 will be close to record warmth due to climate change and the added effect of El Niño-related warming in the Pacific.

The Met Office forecasts the global average temperature for 2019 to be between 0.98 °C and 1.22 °C, with a central estimate of 1.10 °C, above the pre-industrial average period from 1850–1900. Since 1850, 2016 is the warmest year on record with a central estimate of 1.15 °C above the same baseline.

Modest warming from El Niño combined with much larger effects due to rising levels of greenhouse gases are driving the 2019 temperature forecast. Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: “Our forecasts suggest that by the end of 2019, 19 of the 20 warmest years on record will have occurred since the year 2000.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/2019-global-temperature-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Christmas day

Dry for many
Patchy frost & fog
Some sunshine
Cloudier in the west

Outlook

High pressure slips east
Mainly dry
Cloud increasing
Patchy drizzle

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46642152

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

 

Courtesy of John and Sara and probably on the money.

 

MONDAY 24TH DECEMBER – SUNDAY 30TH DECEMBER

Cloud, sun, frost, fog… but no snow

32010924251_675602a79b_b.jpg?resize=300% Christmas week looks quiet and mostly dry

While much of the week looks dry, Christmas Eve starts damp and mild across some southwestern parts of the UK. In contrast, further northeast it will be drier and chillier. And this chillier air will provide a frosty start to Christmas Day for a few. A White Christmas of sorts, I suppose!

Changes will be slow and subtle as a large area of high pressure causes the air to stagnate across the UK for a few days. The dry theme is a strong one, but the distribution of cloud, sunshine, frost and fog will be far less straightforward. Fog, in particular, may become quite an issue; and with so many people on the move, impacts may be significant.

Similarly, temperatures will vary hugely. Double figures for many, but much chillier where fog lingers for much of the day – most likely away from the west.

By the end of the week, fronts will be trying to push milder and damper air more bodily across the UK, although the progress of this is uncertain. Chilly air may hold on across some southern and eastern areas until the weekend. But all in all it looks like a quiet spell to get out and enjoy the many eventstaking place between Christmas and New Year

 

 

the chance… is real and ominous

 

 



 

 

  MONDAY 31ST DECEMBER – SUNDAY 6TH JANUARY                                   

High drama about to unfold?

autumn-832334_960_720.jpg?resize=300%2C2 Dramatic events are unfolding at the top of the atmosphere

The year ends with waves of energy from the jet stream repeatedly trying to erode away the high pressure sitting across the UK. Each wave looks set to slow down on reaching our western shores. The breaking of these waves may still threaten westernmost areas with rain, but the extent to which this rain spreads more widely across the UK is not clear.

Wherever that air stagnates – closest to the bubble of high pressure – frost and fog may continue to be lingering issues. But the year will probably start on a predominantly benign note as this high pressure system does not contain inherently very cold air.

Meanwhile, however, high drama is unfolding at the top of the atmosphere. A ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’ will have probably, by now, succeeded in splitting the Polar Vortex in two.

The resultant reversal in hemispheric winds aloft increases the chances that eventually, at the bottom of the atmosphere, an intensely cold area of high pressure will surge out of the Arctic and sweep frigid easterlies across ‘temperate’ mid-latitudes. But where exactly?

I attended a conference this week in which the point was reiterated that by no means all of these dramatic stratospheric events lead to us in the UK having severe cold. Furthermore the time-lag for this reversal to work its way through the atmosphere is unpredictable.

However, the chance of very cold and potentially snowy weather arriving is real and ominous.

 

 

 

… I expect a clear signal to emerge over the Christmas period

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
On 17/12/2018 at 22:05, cheeky_monkey said:

Nathan Rao is an anagram of knob head...allegedly 

Writing for the daily express must be a doddle, ignore facts check, makeup bullshyte check, quote fellow knob heads check, never face consequences for always being wrong check

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Dry for many to end December

Saturday 22 December—Sunday 30 December

Often cloudy and misty but dry in the south

This weekend, Saturday will be the drier and brighter of the two days for many with sunny intervals although the west and northwest of the UK will also have scattered showers. On Sunday, England and Wales will be mostly cloudy and wet with outbreaks of rain. Staying drier for much of Northern Ireland and Scotland, though, with some bright spells but a risk of fog both early and late in the day.

Next week will see a change in the weather as a high pressure area moves closer to the south of the UK. Many central and southern areas of the UK will have often dry and relatively calm weather, including on Christmas Day. However, it looks as though there could be a lot of cloud at times with a risk of mist and fog in places, particularly through the nights and into the mornings. Further north, it is likely to be breezier at times with occasional rain. Temperatures will mostly be a little above the December average although local night frosts cannot be ruled out, particularly in the south.

Monday 31 December—Sunday 6 January

Mostly dry and settled; possibly wetter later

Mostly dry and settled conditions are expected to persist into the first week of January, thanks to an area of high pressure often nearby to the south. However, the high pressure ridge will also bring the continued threat of fog at times, particularly to central and southern areas of the UK.

Cloud amounts are uncertain. The cloud may be thick enough at times to produce occasional drizzle. However, where any lengthier clearer periods develop, there is also likely to be some patchy night frost. Overall, temperatures are expected to be near to the normal for this time of year. In the far-north, temperatures are favoured to be a little above the seasonal average with more of a breeze and a lower risk of fog. Towards the end of the week, we may see high pressure move further away to the south, bringing an increasing chance of wetter and breezier conditions then.

Monday 7 January—Sunday 20 January

Breezy and wet. Mild at first, then colder.

In the second week of January, we expect somewhat breezier and wetter conditions compared to the first week. Low pressure areas are likely to move closer to the UK at times, bringing rain and brisk winds at times. The risk of fog will become much lower too. Temperatures are likely to be variable but, on average, a little above the normal for this time of year.

Into the third week of January, we expect low pressure areas to still be close to the UK, continuing to bring unsettled and breezy conditions at times. However, low pressure areas could well start to track further south across the UK. Therefore, the wettest conditions are favoured to be over the southern half of the UK. Over northern areas of the UK, it should turn less wet but somewhat colder at times. Indeed, there looks to be an increasing chance of some snow at times for northern areas of the UK. The main uncertainty to this forecast is on the extent of colder air by the middle of January; there is a considerable risk that significantly colder conditions extend to many areas by then.

Next Update

Could we see colder weather arriving from the north for the middle of January?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Latest seasonal outlook from the weather company

Extended Cold Weather Pattern Likely Across Northern Europe

Dec 21, 2018

Wet/Windy Pattern to Impact Southern Europe

Andover, MA

For the aggregate January-March period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting below-normal temperatures across the northern half of Europe, with warmer, wetter, windier conditions confined to the southern tier of Europe.

“December has been another in a long string of warmer-than-normal months across most of mainland Europe, but things appear to be changing heading into the New Year,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company, an IBM Business. “Our suite of statistical and dynamical models have been consistently indicating a transition to a colder pattern across the northern half of Europe by January, and we see nothing to change our view as we approach the end of December. The expected atmospheric ‘blocking’ upstream of Europe will create cold/dry high pressure that will suppress the storm track to southern Europe, where a wet and windy remainder of winter is expected.”

For the January-March 2019 period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following temperatures:
 
January

  • Nordic region – Colder than normal
  • U.K. – Colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Colder than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal
  • Nordic region – Colder than normal

February

  • U.K. – Colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Colder than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

March

  • Nordic region – Colder than normal north, warmer than normal south
  • U.K. – Warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

https://business.weather.com/news/seasonal-outlook-from-ibm-extended-cold-weather-pattern-likely-across-northern-europe

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Weather online's month ahead forecast
 

Quote

 

Issued: Thursday 27th December 2018
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

A murky, mild start then much colder later

There have been indications that the month may well end cold, after a mild start. Probably unsettled mid month with gales and rain.

*1/1/19 - 7/1/19*
A quiet start to the year. Mist and murky, some fog. Only patchy rain passing through. Mild overall.

*8/1/19 - 14/1/19*
Gradually more unsettled. Bands of rain passing east Mild at times, cooler later. Trending to more unsettled.

*15/1/19 - 21/1/19*
Unsettled. Wet and windy. Risk sleet & snow. Cooler.

*22/1/19 - 31/1/19*
Possibly much colder. Risk sleet and snow.

 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

Weather online's 2 monthly outlook

Quote

 

Cold February

Late March warmth?

Issued: Thursday 27th December 2018
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

*February*

  • A chilly month.
  • Some distinct colder spells.
  • Risk of snow and ice.
  • Few milder periods.
  • Little change.

*March*

  • Starring chilly or cold with risk of more sleet and snow.
  • A sharp change mid month to wetter weather.
  • May become significantly drier and warmer for a time later.
  • More unsettled end to month.

 

  •  

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Inside the Coldest City in the World, Where It Snows 270 Days a Year

Quote

 

In much of the Northern Hemisphere right now, it’s getting colder and darker and the winter blues are setting in. But few places get it quite as bad as Norilsk, Russia, where residents won’t see a sunrise until mid-January. Worse yet, it's arguably the coldest city in the world.

One of two Siberian cities built in the continuous permafrost zone, during the winter, the city of more than 175,000 people can see cold snaps as brutally low as -78°F. Overall, Norilsk boasts a yearlong average temperature of just 14°F. (Some will argue that the Siberian city of Yakutsk is colder, but that depends on how you want to slice it: Yakutsk is indisputably chillier in the winter—an average temperature of -42°F in January!—but it has much hotter summers and so, when measured by its yearly average, is warmer overall.)

 

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/offbeat/inside-the-coldest-city-in-the-world-where-it-snows-270-days-a-year/ar-BBRtfpj?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=ACERDHP17

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammonds month ahead forecast

  • Crisp start to 2019
  • Briefly wetter before mid-month
  • Increasingly cold later in January

Subscribers can view the full forecast here https://weathertrending.com/2018/12/28/john-hammond-month-ahead-forecasters-spin/

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
27 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

John Hammonds month ahead forecast

  • Crisp start to 2019
  • Briefly wetter before mid-month
  • Increasingly cold later in January

Subscribers can view the full forecast here https://weathertrending.com/2018/12/28/john-hammond-month-ahead-forecasters-spin/

He's at it again with his cold ramping

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Beast from the East 2? UK in the midst of a 'sudden stratospheric warming'

Forecasters say Britain is experiencing an atmospheric phenomenon of the type that was responsible for last winter's snow and ice.

Quote

The UK is currently in the middle of a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) - of the type that caused last year's Beast from the East - the Met Office has said.

The term is used to describe a sudden change in temperatures in the stratosphere that sometimes leads to cold weather afterwards in winter, although this is not always the case.

The current event looks set to last until January, forecasters have said.

1

https://news.sky.com/story/beast-from-the-east-2-uk-in-the-midst-of-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-11593440

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

Good to see SSW has made the headlines on sky news... 

This is their views on it all....

http://news.sky.com/story/beast-from-the-east-2-uk-in-the-midst-of-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-11593440

20181228_175958.png

Edited by The BEAST From The East
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mild end to 2018, but cooler in the New Year.

Saturday 29 December—Sunday 6 January

Often dry in the south, rain at times in the north

A ridge of high pressure will remain close to or over the south of the UK this weekend and into next week. Central and southern areas of England should be relatively dry and calm, although there will be a risk of mist and fog forming overnight and lingering into the following day. The north of the UK, being furthest from the centre of the ridge of high pressure, will see more changeable weather. This weekend is a good example of this, as strong winds and showers or longer spells of rain expected to affect Scotland, Northern Ireland and some parts of northern England and Wales on Saturday and at first on Sunday.

The first half of next week will see a similar pattern. Rain could affect some parts of Scotland on Monday and on Tuesday, although most places will be dry if rather breezy for the New Year's Eve celebrations on Monday evening. The rest of the UK should have a dry start to the week, but may remain rather cloudy and dull.

The second half of the week is likely to see high pressure remaining close to or over the UK, so we expect a continuation of the relatively dry weather. However, there will be a chance of showers and rain affecting the west or north-west of the country as Atlantic weather systems try and push eastwards. Finally, the current weekend will be very mild for the time of year, but temperatures are likely to gradually fall to nearer normal next week, albeit remaining a little above normal in many areas.

Monday 7 January—Sunday 13 January

Wetter and windier, with temperatures near normal

The most likely weather pattern for the first full week of January is for things to become more unsettled, wetter and windier than it has been of late. The ridge of high pressure which has been responsible for the recent relatively calm weather will slowly decline southwards into Europe, this allowing Atlantic fronts to push eastwards across the country. Although there is uncertainty in the detail of when the Atlantic fronts will arrive, over the week as a whole it does look likely that most parts of the UK will see rainfall near or a little above normal for the time of year. It also looks a little windier than average in most areas.


Temperatures will probably be near normal, perhaps a little bit above normal for central and eastern England and a little cooler than normal for Scotland. The main alternative to this scenario is that the ridge of high pressure will be slower to decline and could linger close to the UK. This would mean that the weather remains drier and less windy in the south, but wetter and windier for the north, particularly Scotland. It would also remain milder than normal too.

Monday 14 January—Sunday 27 January

Breezy and wet. Probably becoming colder.

In our last outlook, we mentioned the possibility of it becoming colder during the middle or end of January. This is mainly due to developments in upper atmosphere over the North Pole. We are currently seeing significant changes in the wind circulation pattern and temperature of the stratosphere over the Arctic. These kinds of changes are associated with an increased risk of cold weather over parts of the Northern Hemisphere around 2-3 weeks later. But before we get to the colder weather, we expect the middle of the month to be unsettled with rainfall at or above average and with the potential for some windy weather too.


Temperatures are likely to be near or perhaps a little below normal at this stage. The last full week of January is when we are likely to see an increased chance of cold north-easterly winds affecting the country. Temperatures are likely to dip below normal for the time of year, and this will bring an above average risk of snow. Of course, there is still some uncertainty and there is a chance that we will see Atlantic low pressure systems continuing to move eastwards across the country right through to the end of the month. If this happens, it is unlikely to become as cold, but will remain wetter and perhaps windy.

Next Update

Could colder weather still be on the way as we move through January?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Classic start to the New Year from the Dakly Star who cite “Forecasters have also warned that temperatures will plummet before a three-month deep freeze hits large parts of the country.”

Whereas the Met Office quote was “The Met Office added that January will be “unsettled” and said severe gales are possible” throughout the month.There's a higher chance of seeing colder spells, and given that, as a result, there's a slightly higher chance of snow across the UK.

"It's far too early to say in any detail, it might be that parts of Scotland which usually get snow will get more, or you might see snow spread more widely."

Not sure they are saying the same as the reported headline....:nea:

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
On 01/01/2019 at 08:58, Dorsetbred said:

Classic start to the New Year from the Dakly Star who cite “Forecasters have also warned that temperatures will plummet before a three-month deep freeze hits large parts of the country.”

Whereas the Met Office quote was “The Met Office added that January will be “unsettled” and said severe gales are possible” throughout the month.There's a higher chance of seeing colder spells, and given that, as a result, there's a slightly higher chance of snow across the UK.

"It's far too early to say in any detail, it might be that parts of Scotland which usually get snow will get more, or you might see snow spread more widely."

Not sure they are saying the same as the reported headline....:nea:

how unusual!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The met office 10 day trend is back after it's Christmas break

Next 10 days

High pressure
Dry, light winds
Often cloudy

Video ends with some signs the weather could change around mid-month but doesn't go any further 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Ha you have to really laugh when Nathan Rao is in full swing. From the Express today,he wrote....”Near unprecedented changes in the atmosphere above the North Pole will collude to create a perfect storm of brutal weather drivers, experts warn.”

oh really...:oldrofl: as he headlines his article ....Rare TRIPLE polar vortex to trigger HEAVY SNOW across UK in January.....

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