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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Mr Hammond is on my wave length

MONDAY 24TH DECEMBER – SUNDAY 6TH JANUARY

Signs of major change

4310197_c3feec6e_1024x1024.jpg?resize=40 There are signs of more severe cold as we head into the New Year

You’ll have inferred, then, that I am not yet going to commit: Green or White Christmas? It’s simply too far off!

However, there are several reasons within the set-up of the atmosphere this winter that suggest the cold air will be back sooner rather than later. El Nino is one; the cycle of spots on the sun is another even more distant influencer.

Additionally, in the last few weeks I’ve spoken of signs that the usually strong stratospheric westerly winds that circle the Arctic (know as the Polar Vortex) may weaken markedly as December ends. This signal is becoming more ominous. It’s important because it introduces the possibility of a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’ in which the Polar Vortex goes fully into reverse. Ultimately, it was this which led to the severely cold spell that struck the UK late last winter.

From start to finish, this process takes several days, if not weeks, before such a reversal works its way down to ground level. But on balance, there is an increasing chance that cold air will return from the north or the east as we go later through the Christmas period, and more particularly into the New Year.

Exciting times ahead – for the child and the weather enthusiast in all of us! 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK weather: Forecasters say snow is possible this week

Forecasters say there is a possibility of snow in northern parts later this week as cold and dry air meets the wet and windy.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-forecasters-say-snow-is-possible-this-week-11576046

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled weather for the rest of December

Saturday 8 December—Sunday 16 December

Rather unsettled overall with a short break.

Indications are that the rest of December and even early January will be characterised by wet, windy and generally mild conditions with a strong jet stream moving in from the Atlantic at times. The jet stream is a ribbon of strong winds in the upper atmosphere and helps to drive in weather systems to the UK.

Monday and Tuesday will see high pressure over most of the UK. As the high shifts to the northeast over Scandinavia on Tuesday, frontal systems will move a bit closer to the UK from the west and may bring cloud and patchy rain at times, although many places will stay dry. Beyond Wednesday, as the area of high pressure shifts eastwards towards Russia, we will see a return to unsettled conditions for the UK with plenty of outbreaks of rain and some windy days.

As we near the end of the week, there are hints of a strong storm coming in from the west but the exact timing and intensity of this event is still uncertain.

Monday 17 December—Sunday 23 December

Wet, mild and windy at times.

The wet, windy and mild theme continues for the week leading up to Christmas.

There is a good indication from various weather models that we will continue to see successive low pressure systems and their associated fronts sweep across the UK from the west, bringing some very windy days along with outbreaks of rain, sometimes heavy in the west and north. These weather systems will also bring milder Atlantic air and keep the colder, Polar air well to the north and east. We are likely to see occasional areas of high pressure moving through, bringing a brief respite from the wind and rain.

There is a risk that some of the low pressure systems could be strong and bring very strong winds and heavy rain to some areas. Confidence is low at this range on the exact timing and location of these potential storms due to the changeable nature of the jet stream.

Monday 24 December—Sunday 6 January

Staying mild with some very wet and windy weather

As we end December, there doesn't seem to be much change in the weather pattern, with low pressure systems moving across the UK bringing plenty of fronts, strong winds, and rain, along with milder temperatures. Western areas of the UK are expected to be the wettest and there are indications that rainfall could be well-above normal for the time of year for some areas, with a risk of flooding.

Strong winds appear most likely towards the end of the month.  The generally unsettled theme dominated by low pressure systems will mean that any lowland snow around Christmas is unlikely. However, a brief cold snap between fronts cannot be ruled out, so there is perhaps just the faintest glimmer that some may see a white Christmas. As we head into the new year, the Jet stream looks set to dip south, bringing the low pressure track across the UK and into the Continent. This will bring colder air into the north with Scotland likely to see some snow even down to low lying areas. Further south it will stay wet, windy, and milder than Scotland but generally a bit cooler than December.

Occasional and brief cold snaps in the south are possible after the cold fronts move through, which could bring the risk for wintry showers to low-lying areas at times.

Next Update

Although a white Christmas looks unlikely, could we some snow somewhere in the UK?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

:oldrofl: Classic SUN newspaper headline this morning."Snow and FIVE-DAY freeze from Iceland will batter Britain warns Met Office with 60mph storms and fog from today"  So let me get this right

60mph winds and FOG at the same time?

Then they go on to say And while temperatures should rise again on Thursday, "disruptive snowfall" then threatens to cause road and rail chaos. How does that make a 5 day FREEZE  from today, unless there's a new way of counting, I've not heard of!. An of course we then have to face DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL...

OMG :help:

HOW ON EARTH did they resolve all of that when they cite "Met Office forecaster Marco Petagna said: “It turns colder on Sunday with air from Iceland, and it certainly looks cold until midweek in the East."?

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

how they manage to get away with printing so much crap i can never understand. its the same old lemon every year.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

US snowstorm kills two in North Carolina

Quote

 

A heavy snowstorm has swept through US south-eastern states, killing at least two people and leaving hundreds of thousands without power.

A state of emergency has been declared in North Carolina, with some areas reporting as much as 0.5m (18.5ins) of snow over the weekend.

One man died after a tree fell on his car. A search is under way for a driver whose vehicle was found in a river.

Thousands of flights were also cancelled across the region.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46504527

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

December is expected close out unsettled

Wednesday 12 December—Sunday 16 December

Chilly then wet and windy, perhaps with snow.

Wednesday will be a cool day but most central and eastern areas of the UK will be under the influence of high pressure, so it should be a dry day. The west will be cloudier and there will be some outbreaks of rain for parts of Wales and South West England, perhaps also affecting Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. There will be little change to this pattern to end the working week, although western areas should be drier on Thursday and Friday than on Wednesday. It will be colder in all areas with Thursday night looking cold with the chance of a fairly widespread frost. After a relatively settled week we will see a change with more of an Atlantic influence on our weather by the end of the weekend. The transition from one type of weather to the other does look messy.

Whilst we are confident that an Atlantic low pressure system will push rain across the UK on Friday night and during Saturday, the time of arrival of the rain is proving tricky to pin down.  It does look likely that most parts of the country will see some rain before the end of Saturday. As this rain pushes across the country it will meet cold air and there will be a chance of snow. Again, the details are proving elusive, but it is most likely that high ground in the north of the UK will see snow, whilst lower lying sites in the south will more likely see rain. One other point to note is that Saturday looks to be a very windy day for many areas of the country.  Sunday should be brighter and less windy but with showers and rain in some areas. It will feel milder than previous days.

Monday 17 December—Sunday 23 December

Unsettled but mild for the time of year.

The run up to Christmas looks likely to be unsettled but relatively mild. The main driver of the weather will be a low pressure system or systems, which are expected to be centred to the north-west of the UK and Ireland throughout the week. We expect showers and bands of rain to push eastwards across the UK with most areas seeing at least some rain, but with the west generally wettest. It may also become windy at times, again with western areas probably most prone to seeing the windiest weather. 


Winds will be broadly from the south-west which means that we will have relatively mild air across the country for much of the week. Temperatures are expected to be above normal for mid-December and there is a reduced risk of overnight frosts. The above normal temperatures also mean that any snow is likely to be limited to the Scottish mountains.

Monday 24 December—Sunday 6 January

Staying mild with some very wet and windy days.

The most case is that we won't see much change in the weather for the Christmas period. Broadly speaking, the weather is most likely to remain milder than normal for the time of year although temperatures should be nearer to normal than in the run up to Christmas. There will be a chance of showers and longer spells of rain and it could be cold enough in the north of the UK for there to be the chance of some snow, but this will mainly be on high ground in Scotland.

A white Christmas looks pretty unlikely for most parts of the UK. Looking to the start of 2019, we still see low pressure close to the UK, so further unsettled weather is likely. However, there are signs that high pressure will start to build across the Scandinavia and the north-east of Europe. If this happens then there will be a chance that we could see some cooler air pushing in from the east, so there is the potential for some colder weather during January. Details of the high pressure development will need to be firmed up before we can say for sure whether we will get any wintry weather to start the new year.

Next Update

Will there be any change in the chance of a white Christmas? And will cold weather look more or less likely in January?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning colder in the new year?

Saturday 15 December—Sunday 23 December

Rather unsettled but relatively mild.

After a relatively settled but cold week, this weekend will see a transition to wetter, windier but milder weather. The change of pattern will be marked by a band of rain pushing eastwards across the country on Saturday. This rain will move into cold air lying across the UK and, as is often the case in this kind of situation, we expect to see a mix of rain, sleet and snow across the country on Saturday. The sleet and snow should be mainly limited to the north of the UK, particularly higher ground although snow could fall to sea level in parts of Scotland and perhaps to low levels across northern England and perhaps even north Wales.What is more unusual is that it is likely that some central and particularly northern parts of the UK will be affected by a short but potentially very dangerous spell of freezing rain. Freezing rain occurs when rain freezes on impact with the ground, and such a process may occur across some parts of the UK on Saturday, bringing treacherous travelling conditions.

However, the bulk of the rest of the UK will only see rain, and this rain could become very heavy in some areas. It will also be a windy day, with gales possible in the afternoon, evening and for a time overnight.Sunday will seem relatively calm compared to Saturday. There will be a brisk westerly wind with sunny spells and showers for most of the country once any lingering rain has cleared. It will feel milder than Saturday. Sunday night will be mainly dry and it will become chilly. Low pressure will remain close to the UK next week, so the weather will remain unsettled with some spells of wet and windy weather expected. Tuesday could be a very wet day for some areas. However, with winds predominantly from the south-west it will be a relatively mild week for the time of year.

Monday 24 December—Sunday 30 December

Staying unsettled and relatively mild.

Low pressure is expected to remain close to the UK for the rest of December. As a result, it is likely that we won't see too much change in the weather during Christmas week. This means that, over the week as a whole, temperatures will probably be a little above where they would normally be at the end of December. It looks unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain and perhaps some windy weather too.

However, since our last update there has been a slight change to the forecast. We are now seeing indications of a spell of cooler weather at the start of the week, so it could be a little colder than average for a time around Christmas Day. We still aren't seeing any significant indications of widespread cold weather for the UK, so a white Christmas still looks unlikely for most of us. This doesn't rule out snow on high ground in the north of the country though. The rest of the week is likely to see temperatures returning to above normal, so any cool spell of weather looks quite short-lived.

Monday 31 December—Sunday 13 January

Potential for colder weather heading into January.

The very end of 2018 and the start of 2019 could bring a change in the weather. It is looking increasingly likely that the relatively mild and unsettled conditions we expect to take us to the end of this year could be replaced by something colder, less wet and less windy. The change is likely to be driven by changes in the winds in the stratosphere over the North Pole. Without going into too much detail, changes in the circulation pattern over the Arctic can have an influence on the weather at ground level across Europe.

We're currently seeing indications of a more 'blocked' pattern across northern Europe in January, and this would tend to lead to cooler weather for the UK. However, there is some uncertainty over when this change will happen and also to what extent it would bring cooler weather to the country. And to add to the uncertainty there is even a 30-40% chance that we will remain in relatively mild south-westerly winds in January.

Next Update

We should be able to say if a white Christmas looks more likely and give more detail about the potential cold weather in January.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Just read John Hammond month ahead forecast on Weather Trending Very Interesting

The headline reads "Chilly out you ain,t seen nothing yet"

Very informative and you can currently subscribe for free

C.S

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
8 hours ago, Deep Snow please said:

Where did our HARP snow bomb from Russia go DS?

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
On 16/12/2018 at 12:12, Summer Sun said:

Another one to add to the growing collection of bonkers stories 

7575.thumb.png.514cff6a3b8e5dffe7bb82698d32fb9d.png

I am beginning to think that we need to feel sorry for this guy.
Surely he is on the limits of being committed..

As an aside is he related to Donald Trump...re his fascination of walls....

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

How many times has he said ‘wall of snow’ already this winter? I’m sure I’ve seen several of his stories with that in the headline. 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
On 16/12/2018 at 05:12, Summer Sun said:

Another one to add to the growing collection of bonkers stories 

7575.thumb.png.514cff6a3b8e5dffe7bb82698d32fb9d.png

Nathan Rao is an anagram of knob head...allegedly 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Run-up to Christmas

Unsettled
Wet and windy at times
Fairly mild

Christmas week

Westerly winds
Wetter and windier further north
More settled further south

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46613769

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