Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The forecast for the foreseeable in October is below average temperatures. Combining this with a below average Sep I just can’t see the autumn being above average unless the second half of October and November is above average. Also the Met Office seasonal forecasts are utter trash.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

If only there were some consistency shown in here, things would be much simpler to comprehend:

Whenever the Met Office (or other professionals) make predictive howlers, said howlers are somehow (and God only knows how, exactly) denigrated by dint of the forecasters' assumed adherence to AGW theory; however, when equally patent blunders are made by CCDs, everything is said to be 'all going to plan'?

IMO, this inconsistency is risible - a forecast is either accurate or it isn't - forecasters' respective views on climate change ought be neither here nor there...IMO.

Ah yes, but do you see the hypocrisy in that statement, whenever we have a record breaking cold month, the 'just a blip - only one month'  gets trotted out, yet when record breaking warmth occurs it is used actively as evidence.

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ah yes, but do you see the hypocrisy in that statement, whenever we have a record breaking cold month, the 'just a blip - only one month'  gets trotted out, yet when record breaking warmth occurs it is used actively as evidence.

What are you on about: which cold month in, say, the last ten-years hasn't been a 'blip'? But - so what? - day-to-day weather, be it hot or cold, does not make for climate change.

I'd like to know who says it does...

[weirpig]

Speaking of howlers.  Latest Tweet from The Met Office was this

With over 34 languages spoken @MetOffice we're truly a global centre for weather and climate.  Then posted 34 flags of countries of the languages that they speak.    7 flags of which speak English   3 speak French   2 portugese   and 2 german.  I pointed this out to them and said  there cannot possibly be that many languages as the flags dont depict this    from which i  received quite a curt response via personal messenger.   I then told them ( in a langugae that isnt represented  at the met office ) to go away     Currently i am    still awaiting a  response 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

What are you on about: which cold month in, say, the last ten-years hasn't been a 'blip'? But - so what? - day-to-day weather, be it hot or cold, does not make for climate change.

I'd like to know who says it does...

you hear it from Met Office forecasters, ive heard it on the BBC, they use the mild blip at the time to give examples as to what it will be like in the future, there haven't been many months with a 5c +ve temperature over the last 10 years either when it comes to that.

[Methuselah]

53 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

you hear it from Met Office forecasters, ive heard it on the BBC, they use the mild blip at the time to give examples as to what it will be like in the future, there haven't been many months with a 5c +ve temperature over the last 10 years either when it comes to that.

But what neither the Met Office nor other reputable forecasting agencies do, is fatuously claim to be in possession of occultist, magical, never-to-be-revealed knowledge that - in order to make themselves seem mysterious - must for ever be kept secret...IMO making claims to 'higher' knowledge is, and has always been, the hallmark of charlatans everywhere...

[Rambo]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

But what neither the Met Office nor other reputable forecasting agencies do, is fatuously claim to be in possession of occultist, magical, never-to-be-revealed knowledge that - in order to make themselves seem mysterious - must for ever be kept secret...IMO making claims to 'higher' knowledge is, and has always been, the hallmark of charlatans everywhere...

Do you have to turn every single thread into a GW face off lol

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Do you have to turn every single thread into a GW face off lol

Where is GW mentioned in my post, Rambo? It's clearly mentioned in yours! Are you seeing things?

Edited September 26, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Rambo]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Where is GW mentioned in my post, Rambo? Are you seeing things?

Nope..pretty clear to see in a lot of your posts...just saying! Dont want to derail this thread, so I'm not gonna go any further, it would just be nice if people could accept other's opinions, rather than make bizarre comments!

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Rambo said:

Nope..pretty clear to see in a lot of your posts...just saying! Dont want to derail this thread, so I'm not gonna go any further, it would just be nice if people could accept other's opinions, rather than make bizarre comments!

You said it!

PS: Just a quick suggestion: don't quote one post when you're referring to something else entirely...it makes no sense!

[feb1991blizzard]

6 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The forecast for the foreseeable in October is below average temperatures. Combining this with a below average Sep I just can’t see the autumn being above average unless the second half of October and November is above average. Also the Met Office seasonal forecasts are utter trash.

I don't agree that Met Office forecasts are always tosh, however, on this occasion they have massively leaned towards higher probability of mild in their seasonal forecast when if their monthly forecast comes to fruition, we would probably need an almost record breaking mild November to achieve this, when they have always poo-pooed anyone forecasting records being broken In long range forecasts - so yet again - contradiction.

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I don't agree that Met Office forecasts are always tosh, however, on this occasion they have massively leaned towards higher probability of mild in their seasonal forecast when if their monthly forecast comes to fruition, we would probably need an almost record breaking mild November to achieve this, when they have always poo-pooed anyone forecasting records being broken In long range forecasts - so yet again - contradiction.

That's what happens when a one-month model-based forecast is superposed onto a three-month probabilistic prediction - I think? But, with data being as limited as they currently are, I don't see any alternative...

Until the Met Office et al. can place trillions of infinitely small measuring devices, one Plank Length apart, everywhere around the globe, probability will play a (albeit ever-decreasing) major part in our forecasts?

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's what happens when a one-month model-based forecast is superposed onto a three-month probabilistic prediction - I think? But, with data being as limited as they currently are, I don't see any alternative...

Until the Met Office et al. can place trillions of infinitely small measuring devices, one Plank Length apart, everywhere around the globe, probability will play a (albeit ever-decreasing) major part in our forecasts?

No problem with probabilistic prediction, anything of any sort of range should carry a caveat, unless the forecaster is 100% sure of an outcome, but I still don't see how you can have a contradiction like that, because if part 1 is correct - ie - October, then surely the 3 month anomaly temperature 2m is then cannot possibly be only 5% likely to fall into the coldest category and 40% likely to fall into the warmest  category, that's nothing to do with data, I have long since thought regarding NWP that at some point, the actual code written will be so accurate due to scientific knowledge and computer programming that you wont really be able to improve NWP anymore, until like you say, there's a lot more observational data available to input.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

The Sun are up to it too. #MaddenMadness

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7358038/el-nino-months-of-snow-uk-winter-ice-storms/

[kar999]

Daily Express utter rubbish sensational headlines again but using netweather as a "source".

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1023744/UK-weather-forecast-winter-2018-snow-weekend-forecast-Friday-Met-Office-cold-latest/amp

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Saturday 6 October—Sunday 14 October

Turning warmer after a cool weekend.

A chilly, wet and breezy morning for much of England and Wales on Saturday but brightening-up in the west and north through the afternoon. Meanwhile, Scotland and Northern Ireland will have bright spells and only isolated showers through Saturday.

After a cold night with an early frost for some, Sunday will be a drier, calmer and sunnier day for large parts of England and Wales while Scotland and Northern Ireland will have a wetter and windier day; heavy rain for north-west Scotland.

Through the first half of next week, temperatures will be on the rise for much of England and Wales. It will feel more like summer than autumn with a lot of dry weather as well for many with sunshine at times. Temperatures are likely to climb into the low 20s Celsius over some southern areas of England by Wednesday. However, Scotland and Northern Ireland will be cloudier and windier at times. Western and north-west Scotland will be thoroughly wet with some high rainfall totals likely there.

The second half of next week is still likely to be mild for many although temperatures may fall away slightly over England and Wales-still feeling pleasant though.

There should be a lot of dry weather, again with the greatest risk of rainfall for western and north-western fringes of the UK. However, the details of the forecast could change. There is a slight risk that ex-Hurricane Leslie tracks from the mid-Atlantic close to the UK late in the week, which could bring more widely windy weather.

Monday 15 October—Sunday 21 October

Turning wetter more widely. Still mild.

For the third week of October, changeable weather conditions can be expected with some typically wet and breezy autumn weather at times for many. However, initially, high pressure may be nearby to the east of the UK, bringing some fine weather to central and eastern areas albeit with a risk of morning fog.

Meanwhile, western and northwestern fringes of the UK will have the highest risk of wetter and breezier weather early in the week. As the week progresses, there is an increasing likelihood of outbreaks of rain extending further east and south across the UK. Indeed, there are chances of some significant rainfall for many, perhaps accompanied by brisk winds too.

Temperatures will probably be down a little compared to the previous week but it should still be quite mild for the time of year.

Monday 22 October—Sunday 4 November

Changeable conditions with rain at times.

The final full week of October is likely to maintain changeable conditions over the UK with bands of rain spreading southeastwards across the country at times.

The latest indications are for a somewhat wetter outlook than previously forecast. However, there should still be some drier and brighter interludes as well, perhaps with the best of those for eastern areas. Once again, western Scotland could bear the brunt of the heaviest rain and strongest winds.

Other parts of the UK are also likely to be breezy at times though. Meanwhile, temperatures look like not departing too far from the seasonal average. There are only slight risks of any significant cold weather although the occasional night frost can be expected in rural areas. As we move into the turn of the month, we can still expect rather changeable conditions with rain at times but there are some indications that northern areas, including western Scotland, may start to turn less wet. Temperatures are likely to be variable, again probably not departing too far from the seasonal average. A greater risk of some night frosts, though, over northern areas of the UK.

Next Update

We will take another look to see if there are any signs of next week's warmth persisting or whether we are still likely to see a change to wetter and less warm conditions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Red October: High pressure to bring warm weather to parts of UK

Temperatures are expected to hit the mid-20s in some places - but a severe weather warning for rain has been issued for Scotland.

https://news.sky.com/story/red-october-high-pressure-to-bring-warm-weather-to-parts-of-uk-11521418

[Summer Sun]

Landslide closes A83 at Rest and Be thankful amid heavy rain

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-45795343?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Wednesday 10 October—Sunday 14 October

Very warm at times; risk of gales on Friday

After a sunny and unusually warm day on Wednesday, there will be a growing risk of some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms breaking out in the south-west during the evening, and much of western and northern Britain tonight. A mild night for all areas, with the driest, clearest conditions likely in the east, perhaps with a few mist patches developing. It will be mild again tomorrow (though not quite as warm as today), with the highest temperatures in East Anglia and south-east England. Thicker cloud and some patchy rain will edge into western and then central Britain from the west. Tomorrow night, the rain will slowly clear east across eastern England, while a very deep area of low pressure moves north to the west of Ireland. Further widespread rain is expected to move into Ireland and western portions of Great Britain during the early hours, with gales or even severe gales developing in western Ireland by the end of the night. Very strong winds are expected to continue across Northern Ireland and western Scotland during the day, with outbreaks of rain affecting much of central and western England and Wales. It looks like increasingly persistent and heavy rain will affect western and northern Britain during the night and on Saturday, with drier, warmer and sunnier conditions across eastern England. A band of rain should move east across all areas on Saturday night or Sunday, with many western and northern areas experiencing a bright but cool day on Sunday with a risk of some showers.

Monday 15 October—Sunday 21 October

Mild, but rather breezy with some rain

The start of next week may begin on a rather cool and settled note, with a brief ridge of high pressure providing dry weather for a time on Monday, although it looks like thickening cloud will bring outbreaks of rain to Ireland and western Britain later in the day. Eastern areas may remain dry, although there is a good chance that rain will push east across all areas overnight. By Tuesday, rather breezy or windy conditions look likely for most of the country, with a mild south-westerly airflow bringing variable cloud. Outbreaks of rain may become persistent at times for western areas, especially for hills and mountains in Wales and western England. By Wednesday and Thursday, a low-pressure area is expected to linger close to Scotland, continuing to bring mild south to south-westerly airflows to much of the country, with frequent areas of low cloud and some overnight mist likely. It looks like rain may be rather frequent for western areas, although there is also a risk that central portions of the country could see more widespread rain too. The end of next week will continue to see low pressure areas lingering close to Scotland, bringing some breezier but also cooler weather from the west. The most widespread rain appears likely in the north, while southern areas should see some brighter, but rather chilly weather at times.

Monday 22 October—Sunday 4 November

Cool and unsettled with frequent spells of rain

During the rest of October and into early November, the weather pattern is expected to be rather persistent, with areas of low pressure generally more frequent close to the UK and north-western Europe, with higher pressure well to the east and south-west. As a result, a large amount of wet weather is expected, particularly across northern Britain, which will be closest to the centre of lows passing just to the north. Rather persistent Atlantic airflows seem most likely, with westerly winds bringing chilly conditions during the fourth week of October. Frequent fronts will move across the country from the west, bringing spells of rain to all areas, with widespread showers moving in on brisk winds in the north-west, these falling as snow on the Scottish mountains. By the end of October, there are hints that short-lived areas of low and high pressure could bring periods of warmer and more settled weather, followed by cooler, windier and wetter conditions for a day or so, to the southern half of the country. There are indications that heavier rain could affect northern Britain, especially Scotland, although it should be stressed that confidence is low.

Next Update

Will November serve up any crisp, Autumnal days, dominated by high pressure?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_weather

Edited October 10, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Turnedoutniceagain]

We're all going to die !!!!

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-forecast-temperatures-nosedive-13422424?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1539666846

 

[Summer Sun]

The met office are working on a new website and it's now available to use

https://beta.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The met office are working on a new website and it's now available to use

https://beta.metoffice.gov.uk/

It's good to know the wind on Monday shouldn't blow us over

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/1588445/scotlands-first-snowfall-of-the-winter-expected-next-week/

My local rag running with the possibility of snow for N/NE Scotland next week.

 

[Mokidugway]

On 18/10/2018 at 12:51, Summer Sun said:

It's good to know the wind on Monday shouldn't blow us over

That's good ,no hailing taxis to worry about either

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 22 October—Sunday 28 October

Mainly dry but a little cooler than recent days

We mentioned in our last update that it looks like high pressure will become established to the west and south-west of the UK next week. This still looks to be the case, although there is still some uncertainty over how far east this ridge of high pressure will extend. At the moment, the most likely scenario is for the ridge to start to build over the weekend, and extend eastwards across the country next week. In fact, there are some indications that the high will drift eastwards later next week, moving closer to or across the country. What does this mean for the weather? As you would expect, high pressure means that much of the country is likely to see a lot of dry weather next week. However, with the high pressure centered to the west of us, winds will tend to be from the north-west, which is never a warm direction at this time of year. In this case it does look as if temperatures will return to near or perhaps a little below normal for the time of year. And whilst it looks predominantly dry, there will be the chance of weather systems skirting the northern periphery of the ridge of high pressure and bringing showers or rain to the north of the UK at times. If the ridge doesn't extend quite as far east as we expect, then the showers or rain could affect more of the country, although that looks fairly unlikely at the moment.

Monday 29 October—Sunday 11 November

Possibly becoming more unsettled

The forecast for the end of October and start of November is currently rather uncertain. This is because we are currently seeing some contradictory signals in our usual medium to longer range weather data. Essentially, there is some disagreement over whether high pressure or low pressure will be dominant across northern and western Europe. The most likely solution is for low pressure to be close to the United Kingdom whilst an area of high pressure builds across Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. This sort of pressure pattern would suggest that after a relatively settled and calm end to October, we will see windier and wetter weather heading into November. Temperatures will probably be near to normal, although it may be rather cool at times if we get winds from the north-west. As always, there is an alternative forecast. There is a chance that the ridge we expect to see in in the full last week of October will persist into the start of November. In this case we would see drier, less windy weather. However, with settled weather we could see some chilly nights and perhaps some mist and fog forming again.

Next Update

Will the forecast for the first half of November look any more certain?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook