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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 24 October—Sunday 30 October
Goodbye to cold mornings... well for some of us!

Monday morning starts off on a chilly note but not quite as chilly as recently. South Wales and southern England will have a fairly cloudy and grey day with patchy rain and drizzle. Sunny spells and scattered showers will continue to push into northeastern parts of England and easternmost Scotland. The rest of the UK will be dry with sunny spells.

By Tuesday morning we will see quite a contrast in temperature between north and south. Northernmost England, Scotland and Northern Ireland will start of quite chilly while the rest of England and Wales will start off on a relatively mild note as Atlantic air starts to influence how it the air feels.

There will be a lot of dry weather around on Tuesday but southernmost parts of the UK will be cloudy at times and the cloud may be just thick enough to produce a few spots of rain and drizzle at first but by the afternoon the bulk of the UK looks to be dry. We finally push the cold air out of the way overnight from Tuesday into Wednesday as westerly winds take over and we no longer have an easterly influence bringing a feed of cold air.

During Wednesday some patchy rain will affect northern and western parts of the UK but elsewhere it should remain largely dry but cloudy at times.
Thursday and Friday will see at times patchy light rain affect northern and western areas but a similar pattern emerges in that the rest of the UK should be largely dry with some sunshine at times.

As we head into next weekend, the Atlantic continues to affect the weather but high pressure starts to build across much of the UK but northernmost parts of the UK will see breezy conditions with some showers at times. This means that many of us will have a dry Halloween but north-western areas look likely to see some showers at times.

Monday 31 October—Sunday 6 November
What's going on in the Atlantic?

As we head into next week we are watching developments in the Pacific, the USA and the Atlantic. The computer models are broadly grouping together to give a pattern where warm air pushes northwards in the central and western Atlantic and this then allows cold air to push pushes southwards in the eastern Atlantic. On a pressure chart this will look like high pressure sitting to the southwest of the UK and low pressure lying somewhere to the northeast of the UK allowing a cold northwesterly flow to develop. By day there should be enough sunshine so that daytime temperatures will be close to average but overnight temperatures could be below average. The transition to a northwesterly shift in weather is complex and so there is still a lot to play for in how and if this happens.

Monday 7 November—Sunday 27 November
Autumn is nearly out of sight!

Pushing this far out in forecasting is always complex and a range of weather solutions will always emerge from the many global computer models that we look at.

The pattern that is emerging looks to be slow moving and high pressure is likely to be close to the UK. This indicates that we are likely to see limited changes in weather on a daily basis and it looks like overall we could see more overnight frosts and fog becoming more extensive. Frontal systems are unlikely to affect the UK while showers are likely close to coastal areas where the sea can still provide enough heating to help produce showers.

There's a lot that can happen until then and remember than we are transitioning from October to November the message is that we are not likely to see anything unusual for this time of year.

Next week

How is the start of winter shaping up? How will the colder forecast for next week evolve over the next few days as we get closer in time?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

120 day's of snow - coldest snap in 5 years

I'm sure you can all guess which paper that is in today....

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

120 day's of snow - coldest snap in 5 years

I'm sure you can all guess which paper that in is today....

A whole five years:shok: The headline on that paper should be, 365 Days A Year Of Printing Complete Ollocks And We Are Still Getting Away With It.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

120 day's of snow - coldest snap in 5 years

I'm sure you can all guess which paper that is in today....

Daily express!! It owned by a pornographer. I don't think pornographers is not that good at meteorology. :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

It's going to snow everyday all winter *runs for the hills*

There that's better, won't have to see this made up crap-ness.

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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
3 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

I really hate how they have the headline, some wild claims, then some fairly benign met office quotes! It's nothing short of nonsense and I'm amazed they are continuously allowed to publish erroneous stories. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
4 hours ago, jvenge said:

I really hate how they have the headline, some wild claims, then some fairly benign met office quotes! It's nothing short of nonsense and I'm amazed they are continuously allowed to publish erroneous stories. 

I had a phone interview for the Daily Mail last winter for an upcoming cold snap. The "journalist" was desperately trying to prod me to say something sensationalist (i.e. "Isn't this supposed to be the coldest end to winter in decades?"). Have to be really careful. We won't even speak to the Express.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
10 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Actually   he might be closer to the truth this year( exits building quickly)

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Actually   he might be closer to the truth this year( exits building quickly)

A stopped clock is right twice a day.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
14 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Probably because nobody with any respect would give the Express the time of day.

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On 27/10/2016 at 13:36, Nick L said:

I had a phone interview for the Daily Mail last winter for an upcoming cold snap. The "journalist" was desperately trying to prod me to say something sensationalist (i.e. "Isn't this supposed to be the coldest end to winter in decades?"). Have to be really careful. We won't even speak to the Express.

I can't understand  how they get away with it! Wouldn't be surprised to find out that Nathan Rao and James Madden are the same  person :unknw::D

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 31 October—Sunday 6 November

Change in month will bring change in temperature

As we move into November, our weather in still in slow motion with only gradual changes taking place. However there will be one difference this week from what we have seen in October. The large area of high over Scandinavia is being replaced by low pressure while high pressure becomes located to the west of the British Isles. This will see a northwesterly airflow becoming established resulting in a drop in temperatures across all parts. The colder air will follow a band of rain which will move south across Scotland and Northern Ireland during Monday and then across England and Wales during Tuesday, this rain gradually fizzling out as it comes southwards. Coming behind is some colder weather with much brighter skies and sunshine but also an increasing risk of frosts at nights. A widespread frost is expected in the north on Monday night and in many areas on Wednesday and Thursday nights. A brief period of more unsettled weather will come along later in the week as an area of low pressure crosses the country. Rain will reach northwest Scotland on Thursday, making its way down across all parts during Friday and Saturday with sunshine and some showers following on Sunday. Cloudier skies later in the week will mean less frost but temperatures still on the cool side.

Monday 7 November—Sunday 13 November

Typically autumnal

As we head into the second week of November the pattern of fairly quiet autumn weather continues. Pressure will always remain high to the south and west of the British Isles maintaining a good deal of dry weather. Winds will mostly come in from a north or northwesterly direction bringing troughs of low pressure containing showers or even some longer spells of rain and stronger winds. The air will be cold enough for this to fall as snow over the hills of Scotland. This is not unusual for this time of year, what is more unusual is the fact we have not seen more snow on the hills so far the autumn. The driest conditions and best of any sunshine will be over the southern half of England and Wales. It will be a cold week more widespread frosts and also patchy fog, most likely in the south where winds will continue to be lightest.

Monday 14 November—Sunday 27 November

More of the same

Looking further ahead into November and the details become more uncertain. However there are still no signs of any change to the wet and windy side of autumn. Instead, the indications are for a continuation of winds coming in from a north or northwesterly direction. This will keep temperatures a little below normal and frosts will be more widespread across the country. We may well see areas of low pressure passing close to the north of the British Isles bringing an increase in showery conditions and stronger winds.

Next week

As we enter the meteorological winter, are we in for a cold one? Watch this space....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Soon to be seen on the South Coast of England?

Quote

A strange and beautiful sight greeted locals in the Gulf of Ob, in northwest Siberia, after thousands of natural snowballs formed on the beach.

An 11-mile (18km) stretch of coast was covered in the icy spheres.

The sculptural shapes range from the size of a tennis ball to almost 1m (3ft) across.

_92287272_snowballs.jpg

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37883003

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 7 November—Sunday 13 November

Starting cold, warming up again, but not for long!

In recent weeks, the Atlantic jet stream has often been orientated in such a fashion such that it takes a track up towards the Arctic Circle, before sinking south just to the east of the UK. In this orientation, high pressure conditions tend to dominate the weather closer to home, with weather-bearing low pressure systems sinking southeast across the nearby North Sea. This set-up usually gives a northerly wind, a few showers (chiefly to eastern areas), but predominantly dry and cold weather to much of the UK. Indeed, we begin this week with the same arrangement, with a hard frost on both Monday and Tuesday mornings, a few showers chiefly located across eastern England and Scotland but otherwise dry, sunny and cold conditions by day.

Through late Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday, the jet will temporarily sink to lower latitudes, pushing a weather front across the UK from west to east. As the rain from this system encounters the cold air over northern parts of the UK, it will likely lead to a period of hill snow on the hills and mountains of northern Britain on Tuesday night, with a small chance of some brief spells of sleet and snow to lower levels in the same locale. Elsewhere the precipitation from the front will bring a spell of rain, before the front clears away to the east, ushering in a couple of less cold, showery and breezy days for all.

Uncertainty in the forecast becomes unusually large by the weekend, with the various computer modelling systems failing to agree on the most likely outcome of our weather. On balance though, it seems most likely that we'll see the re-orientation of the jet stream to allow pressure to build to the west of the UK again, letting weather systems be steered across the UK from the northwest, bringing a spell of slightly cold, showery and windy conditions. The less likely scenario is that colder, drier conditions start to feed in from the east again. We await further signals from the data with interest!

Monday 14 November—Sunday 20 November

Rather uncertain, but most likely remaining cool.

Forecasting the weather in the longer term always introduces an increasing degree of uncertainty, but for the middle part of November, that uncertainty is slightly larger than we'd normally expect. The array of forecasting computer models that aid our decision making are showing a fairly broad spread of possibilities. For example, some maintain the jet stream in a position which allows a Scandinavian anticyclone to maintain a rather cold east to northerly wind across the UK, but other models permit an arrangement whereby Atlantic weather systems move in from the west to bring us the wet and windy conditions that are more akin to a typical UK autumn. At time of writing, a solution that incorporates both scenarios is preferred, with the idea that many places in the UK will initially experience a spell of west to northwesterly winds with occasional bands of showers. Towards the end of this period, there is a distinct possibility that a Scandinavian high will become influential again, bringing a good deal of cold and dry weather on an easterly wind.

Monday 21 November—Sunday 4 December

Winter gets underway.

The inherent uncertainty in the forecast only increases as we head into the last days of autumn and the beginning of winter. At the moment though, it seems most probable that we won't see any typically wet and windy weather to end the autumn, with winter perhaps taking an early hold on UK proceedings. Pressure is likely to be high to the east of the UK, blocking the path of any stormy conditions from the Atlantic, consequently giving us frosty nights, cold but largely dry days and the chance of fog at times.

Next week

As winter gets underway some atmospheric signals suggest that, on balance, weather patterns across western Europe may become fairly static. Increased amounts of snow across Siberia, among other factors, are indicating that we might be in for a cold and largely settled start to winter. Get updated on the forecast for early winter in next week's edition ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Winters over then...

Winter OVER already? Shock weather alert as UK temperatures to rise this weekend

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/560861/uk-weather-winter-over-snow-temperatures-soar

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 14 November—Sunday 20 November
Mild Monday to freezing Friday!

The week will get underway with a westerly wind pushing mild and moist air across the UK. Most places will be cloudy, with some rain and drizzle for western coasts, and also the western side of Northern Ireland. A few brighter spells are most likely across eastern Scotland and northeast England though.

Through Tuesday, clearer skies will push in across the northern half of the UK, with an accompanying colder feel, but conditions will remain rather cloudy, dank and mild across the south.

Later on Tuesday and into Wednesday a cold front will sweep the final remnants of the mild and cloudy air away to the south, and usher in a cold north to northwesterly wind. Throughout the remainder of the week, conditions will be cold for all parts of the UK, with strong winds and heavy showers, that will turn increasingly wintry on higher ground. There will be some sunshine though, with the best of this anticipated for eastern areas.

Through the following weekend, low pressure will continue to dominate the overall weather pattern across the UK, with further spells of showery weather for all parts at times and a continuation of the chilly feel. Winds are likely to ease a touch though permitting decent early morning frosts.

Monday 21 November—Sunday 27 November
Briefly mild again, then the uncertainty starts.

At the start of this period, the majority of computer models suggest that low pressure systems of the previous weekend will be positioned just to the south of the UK. As a result, we can expect a brief interlude of slightly milder air being drawn up from the south. Some rain is forecast to accompany that milder air, which is likely to be most prevalent across the southern half of the UK, with northern areas likely staying drier for longer. As we head further into the period though, most models are suggesting that the jet stream will begin to adapt a pattern that will halt the progress of any Atlantic weather systems across our shores. This blocked pattern will likely manifest itself as a build of pressure from the north. Should the resulting high pressure system extend into the UK, it is probable that most parts of the UK will move into a colder phase of weather, with chilly mornings and cold but largely dry days. This scenario is by no means certain though, and there are some indications that further spells of rain may round low pressure systems in the near continent, and introduce the risk of some snow on the leading edge of any rain bands as they move north and hit the colder air in place over many parts of the UK. There is a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast detail for this period, and it is well worth staying up to date with the latest forecasts as we move towards the end of the month.

Monday 28 November—Sunday 11 December
Wintry weather looking to set in from the off.

As eluded to in the previous section, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the forecast details for the early part of winter. There is at least some degree of consensus between most of the forecasting models that we employ though. They suggest that the jet stream will remain in a rather blocked pattern, which would favour the likelihood of dry and cold weather dominating conditions across much of the UK, with frost and fog expected on most mornings. The detail of any potential change in this broad picture is very difficult to ascertain from the information available at time of writing.

Next week

Can we start to nail down the details of the forecast for first half of December? Stay in touch with us here in at the BBC Weather Centre to find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 21 November—Sunday 27 November
Calm down. Less of that sort of thing

After a cold weekend in the north and a wet and windy one in the south, we can expect more of the same into the start of the week. Monday will see a cold start in the north with a hard frost and some freezing fog patches whilst a band of heavy rain will push in from the south, strengthening the wind as it does. Throughout Monday and Tuesday the wet and windy weather will affect all parts of the UK with thunderstorms and gales, possibly severe likely at times.
Into the middle of the week a ridge of high pressure will begin to calm the weather down bringing much lighter winds and a mainly dry picture. This will bring an easterly breeze across southern parts which may be brisk at times and bring the odd spell of rain. Further north, calm and dry conditions with variable amounts of cloud will lead to some chilly nights with freezing fog as well as some crisp sunny days. Into the weekend we maintain the status quo with light winds, little in the way of rain and a mixture of cloudy skies and clearer spells.

Monday 28 November—Sunday 4 December
Winter is coming, meteorologically speaking anyway

Heading through the end of November and into December the weather looks like staying very quiet with high pressure in charge. This weather pattern will bring settled and dry conditions with any rain being very temporary and confined to the far northern and far southern fringes of the country. We can expect a mix of cloudy skies but some prolonged clear spells which by day will bring chilly, crisp winter sunshine. Should clear skies present themselves by night though, temperatures will quickly drop and freezing fog will form and where this happens, it will be stubborn to clear the following day.

Monday 5 December—Sunday 18 December
More of the same

Moving forwards the weather patterns show little sign of changing with dry conditions and light winds dominating. The issue of how much cloud there will be remains, as does the knock on impacts of this uncertainty. Cloudy skies by day mean chilly and grey but by night mean relatively mild. Clear skies by day mean crisp winter sunshine but by night any gaps in the cloud will lead to a hard frost and patches of freezing fog. Around the middle of the month there are a few signs that the ridge of high pressure bringing such calm weather will start to edge away with something a bit more unsettled heading our way.

Next week

Can we expect snow for Christmas?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
On 18/11/2016 at 14:33, Summer Sun said:

Oops

nintchdbpict0002831660301-e1479469245369.jpg

:rofl::rofl:

This made radio 2 last night/this morning with Janice Longs midnight show, she was talking about the weather forecaster pointing to a a strange member.

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