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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, Paul said:

He didn't, they've pulled that from his tweets and from an article he wrote for TWO back in June!

I've just written a blog about the Freezing winter stories

SHOCK NEWS - The Freezing Winter Headlines Are Earlier This Year

That explains it then. Usual Express pish.

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Posted
  • Location: Mansfield Notts
  • Location: Mansfield Notts
3 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

That's it they've jinxed winter again  :wallbash: every year,  what a bunch of.........

Edited by snowtimenow
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Posted
  • Location: SW London
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: SW London

Hope the mods don't mind my using this forum to promote a new weather based podcast.

Started by myself and a friend, another NW member, we hope to provide an informative and entertaining discussion of all things weather.

It's called Weathercocks, and you can find it at the link below and on iTunes

http://www.buzzsprout.com/65644

In the first episode we discuss the current weather, the nature of the Shipping forecast as well as the life of the pioneer of meteorology Robert Fitzroy. We also attempt to devise our own, Country and Western-themed rainfall classification system.

We hope that somebody out there finds this enjoyable - episode two will be available next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Meanwhile, the Grauniad is discussing the discovery of a stream of westerly QBO stratospheric circulation within the easterly stream, and therein sees a confident forecast for an Atlantic-dominated winter:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/25/die-cast-wet-stormy-winter-weatherwatch

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Meanwhile, the Grauniad is discussing the discovery of a stream of westerly QBO stratospheric circulation within the easterly stream, and therein sees a confident forecast for an Atlantic-dominated winter:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/25/die-cast-wet-stormy-winter-weatherwatch

 

So we have conflicting signals with one department suggesting a colder than average November/December and the other saying business as usual.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

New graphics and a high-resolution map for ITV's weather forecasts from today

110017022_This_image_is_strictly_embargo

The met office have also signed a new contract with ITV

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frosty and fresh
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
On ‎28‎/‎09‎/‎2016 at 13:40, Nick L said:

Very funny Nick, good find

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frosty and fresh
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
38 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

New graphics and a high-resolution map for ITV's weather forecasts from today

110017022_This_image_is_strictly_embargo

The met office have also signed a new contract with ITV

About time, may even start to watch now.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BEAST FROM THE EAST Britain to be rocked by snowy storms, howling gales, freezing temperatures and flooding

The Met Office has forecast shocking “storm systems” hitting in the second half of October

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1940637/britain-to-be-rocked-by-snowy-storms-howling-gales-freezing-temperatures-and-flooding/

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

BEAST FROM THE EAST Britain to be rocked by snowy storms, howling gales, freezing temperatures and flooding

The Met Office has forecast shocking “storm systems” hitting in the second half of October

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1940637/britain-to-be-rocked-by-snowy-storms-howling-gales-freezing-temperatures-and-flooding/

Will you never cease promoting this rubbish. :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 10 October—Sunday 16 October
High pressure losing its grip.

High pressure which has been responsible for the mostly dry, settled start to October looks set to remain close by for much of this week. However showers will become more of a feature. They will drift in from the North Sea and some will be on the heavy side later on Monday and into Tuesday, especially across East Anglia and southeast England. Driest weather during the first half of the week with the best of the sunshine will be over southwest England, west Wales, Northern Ireland and western Scotland. As we go through the week, easterly winds will become stronger and it will feel cooler, especially along North Sea coasts. Also showers will become more frequent over eastern areas where it will remain rather cloudy. On Friday, an area of low pressure will approach from the southwest bringing some rain into Southwest England while showers will continue in many eastern areas, heaviest across eastern Scotland. The more persistent rain will edge further northwards over the weekend.

Monday 17 October—Sunday 23 October
Weather changing but only slowly

It does look as though high pressure will have less of an influence on our weather during next week. A slow moving area of low pressure will bring outbreaks of rain across the country during the early part of the week, heavy at times, especially in the south and east although not amounting to much across the northwest. Easterly winds will be quite strong with temperatures close to normal for the second half of October. High pressure will not have moved too far away and may briefly return to give a more settled interlude towards the end of the week and into the weekend. This will bring drier, brighter conditions with lighter winds. However clearer skies at nights are likely to lead to colder nights with a touch of frost.

Monday 24 October—Sunday 6 November
As Halloween approaches, any spooky weather?

The last week of October is likely to begin with some settled weather. The trend will then be to a more changeable period of weather as we finish the month and move into November although we are expecting nothing too dramatic. Deeper areas of low pressure will approach the UK from the Atlantic bringing spells of wetter and windier weather. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are likely to be over northwest Scotland. These conditions look set to continue into the first week of November. As our air is expected to come in from the Atlantic, temperatures will very very close to normal for this time of year. However there will be drier, clearer conditions between weather systems with lighter systems overnight frosts.

Next week

Will we see any signs of a colder snap?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 17 October—Sunday 23 October

Turning colder

It looks as though Hurricane Nicole, way out in the Atlantic, is pushing up a ridge of high pressure to the west of the UK. This ridge is set to bring chilly north-westerly winds through Monday and Tuesday with plenty of showers and longer spells of rain so just about everyone will need a waterproof at some point. By Wednesday the ridge of high pressure should be overhead, leaving mainly dry and settled conditions for many away from the east coast where a few showers will persist. This situation then stays with us into the weekend with mainly dry, settled conditions but slightly lower temperatures than the seasonal average by day and some chilly nights too.

Monday 24 October—Sunday 30 October

Lots of uncertainty this week

High pressure looks set to stay with us at the start of this week bringing lots of dry weather but at this stage it's too early to say whether or not we'll have sunny skies or grey ones. Whilst the large scale features of our weather systems appear to remain stuck in a blocked pattern across northwest Europe, small changes in this could mean large changes in the weather outside the window. As the high pressure slowly edges away eastwards we could be in for a bit of a change but confidence in this part of the forecast is low. There will be some wetter spells, most likely in the west with the east being favoured for chilly and occasionally foggy nights. At this time of year any fog tends to be stubborn come the morning so whilst we will most likely see some sunshine, some murky days are on the cards as well. Temperatures are likely to remain a little on the chilly side.

Monday 31 October—Sunday 13 November

Trick or treat? It depends where you are

As Halloween comes and goes and we head into November, the outlook is for mainly settled conditions with extended dry periods. Good news for anyone out trick or treating as well as people standing outside waiting for the fireworks to start on Bonfire Night. This doesn't mean that the whole UK can expect a totally dry fortnight; there will still be a few showery spells, most likely in the west and northwest. Winds will be generally light, mainly westerly or north-westerly, although at times, particularly during rainy spells, the wind will pick up becoming quite strong. Temperatures are forecast to be around average for the time of year which means we will likely see the occasional frosty night.

Next week

As we head into the final weeks of meteorological autumn, what will the weather have in store?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Any thoughts on this from more expert members? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3845712/Now-Met-Office-predict-big-freeze-YEAR-ahead-unlocking-mysteries-weather-control-s-Britain-s-climate.html

Not sure I believe anything printed in the Daily Heil, but at least it is a little better than the Express which is for people who find the Daily Mail too high brow and left wing :)

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Any thoughts on this from more expert members? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3845712/Now-Met-Office-predict-big-freeze-YEAR-ahead-unlocking-mysteries-weather-control-s-Britain-s-climate.html

Not sure I believe anything printed in the Daily Heil, but at least it is a little better than the Express which is for people who find the Daily Mail too high brow and left wing :)

It appears that the Met have a new supercomputer coming on-line, and, by the sound of it, they're going to use it to make longer-term assessments of the NAO.  Of course, even an ignoramus like me is well aware that the NAO is only one of the global patterns and set-ups which influence Western European winters, so, as usual, the headlines are rather "inventive".

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Correcting typo.
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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

Well, it was using the supercomputer they already have. I wonder if it is going to be another one they keep to themselves, though? 

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Big problem I see with the Mail article is in saying the NAO drives the winter weather pattern... it does not.

NAO is just a current measure of pressure patterns that are being driven by many atmospheric and ocean interactions. They might be able to predict what ENSO, QBO etc are going to be a year ahead but I doubt it will give the overall picture. This research is all done on hindcasting from what I can see from the graphs in the paper; behind a paywall for the text.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

For those with an understandable aversion to the Daily Mail, the source on which it is based is here:

http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2824.epdf?referrer_access_token=jKTubgewPuIDh8OqD1S7tdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OzBduhqTzC8BUtSPJEpoNjCfWQXhPSWLjHiX_6tZL0TQuhKaCS_4WDclf_gov_dmYw_ZDgMW-M0rkcJbcPxfG6CFtsgeSL2Pjb7TJ3G3A-TV6nIeHpBPPTR4ohed-U5rMCyFlX-51TWSiCJ1-mKDjPzeQyMJLcLBZTf-8WuVXE9omg88Xltk-GFUfyso9e3JnlKOjKcq28mZb33Qkg1WqoF8bjshd1r9x4LqAq2zuaOBjqu4lNLxeuDvfPcypntG8%3D&tracking_referrer=www.telegraph.co.uk

(Oddly, the link url says the tracking_referrer is www.telegraph.co.uk, but I clicked through from the Daily Mail. Did someone at the Mail just cut and paste the link from a Telegraph article?)

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Just had a quick scan through the Nature article and there are some quite bold statements:

"Although the QBO is highly predictable (r = 0.71), it is not significantly correlated with the NAO, and is not considered further. Our analysis highlights four potential sources of skill that have also previously been identified in the literature: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific in agreement with both observational and modelling studies; the Atlantic SST tripole pattern that has been linked to NAO variations in early winter; the sea-ice coverage in the Kara Sea region; and the stratospheric polar vortex strength (SPVS) via which many different drivers can act."

 

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Did anyone else see this evenings' Countryfile forecast?  I know Darren Bett is considered a bit of a mild ramper (inasmuch as any broadcast meteorologist/forecaster can be said to be), but a large part of his forecast seemed to be banging-on about the Jet roaring across northern Britain, the Atlantic waking-up etc.  Had he been speaking more technically, I suspect the word "zonal" or "zonality" might have been used.  How come most of the discussion in the model thread revolves around the weakness of the PV and the unusually quiet Atlantic if the Met Office are going for a traditional late October zonal train setup I wonder?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Did anyone else see this evenings' Countryfile forecast?  I know Darren Bett is considered a bit of a mild ramper (inasmuch as any broadcast meteorologist/forecaster can be said to be), but a large part of his forecast seemed to be banging-on about the Jet roaring across northern Britain, the Atlantic waking-up etc.  Had he been speaking more technically, I suspect the word "zonal" or "zonality" might have been used.  How come most of the discussion in the model thread revolves around the weakness of the PV and the unusually quiet Atlantic if the Met Office are going for a traditional late October zonal train setup I wonder?

 

This is the one from Chris Fawkes earlier 

Turning colder next Sunday or Monday with northerly winds and showers likely for northern areas

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37745014

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This is the one from Chris Fawkes earlier 

Turning colder next Sunday or Monday with northerly winds and showers likely for northern areas

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37745014

To be fair, he is saying much the same, even to the extent of hyping-up a relatively moderate northerly Jet arm - the only real difference is a reference to colder weather from next Sunday onwards - is this the Jet dropping back across the Med?

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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