Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[Summer Sun]

Netweather's quote in the Expresses latest

 

Netweather said there is likely to be a “cold heart†to winter this year with above average snowfall in parts and frequent winter storms. Its long-range winter forecast states: “A cold heart to the winter with January likely to be colder than average due to an increased likelihood of an SSW (Sudden stratospheric warming) occurring. “Precipitation close to or slightly above average overall. “Tendency for storm tracks taking a more southerly route across the UK -therefore potential for a significant wind event affecting the bulk of the UK. “Above average hill snow for Scotland.â€

[BornFromTheVoid]

For science week, Met Eireann are posting up a number of short scientific articles about weather and climate each day on their website www.met.ie.

 

Science Week in Ireland runs from November 9th-16th, with the theme “The Power of Scienceâ€. To mark it, a series of short articles written by the team working in Met Éireann's Research, Environment and Applications (REA) Division, will appear on our website each day. The REA division consists of physicists, mathematicians, computer scientists and research support staff who work on a wide range of scientific projects including the development of the operational weather forecasting model HARMONIE, climate modelling using the EC-Earth model, dispersion modelling, agricultural meteorology, marine meteorology, road-surface modelling, postprocessing of weather model data, environmental monitoring, geomagnetism, phenology, ozone monitoring, solar radiation physics and remote sensing.

 

Here are a few examples from recent days

 

If our climate model data was an MP3 file, how long would it take to play?

 

The Power of People

This article provides a brief introduction to some of our earliest weather keepers; some of the people who formed part of Ireland’s nascent meteorological network in the 1870s.

 

Power of Marine Observations

Ireland’s position on the western edge of Europe means that we are first to be affected by the regular cycle of weather systems crossing the North Atlantic Ocean. It is imperative therefore that we track how these systems develop and move with marine observations. One of the main functions of the Marine Unit is to deal with marine weather observations.

 

Power of Observations in Weather Models

NWP can be viewed as an initial value problem: starting with an estimate of the state of the atmosphere the forecast model component of an NWP system iterates the state of the atmosphere forward in time using sophisticated numerical techniques and a good knowledge of atmospheric physics. If an initial state is more accurate then the weather forecast will be more accurate. But how is an accurate initial state estimated and what role do observations play?

 

More articles on the main site and here http://www.met.ie/news/?arc=1

[Paul]

Netweather's quote in the Expresses latest

 

Netweather said there is likely to be a “cold heart” to winter this year with above average snowfall in parts and frequent winter storms. Its long-range winter forecast states: “A cold heart to the winter with January likely to be colder than average due to an increased likelihood of an SSW (Sudden stratospheric warming) occurring. “Precipitation close to or slightly above average overall. “Tendency for storm tracks taking a more southerly route across the UK -therefore potential for a significant wind event affecting the bulk of the UK. “Above average hill snow for Scotland.”

 

Which is a direct quote lifted from the prelim-winter outlook page.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

[Nick L]

I think Madden/The Express should be starved of publicity here from now on, it's tarnishing the reputations of all professional meteorologists and making serious weather prediction into a laughing stock. I won't mention them again here, how about everyone else? 

 

I try and discourage people from clicking on any tabloid hysteria on here. Clicks = money = encouragement for them to carry on peddling their damaging BS.

[Woollymummy]

Where is Michael Fish today? I always try and watch his forecast, haven't seen one for a while :-(

 

I hope he is ok.

[Summer Sun]

Where is Michael Fish today? I always try and watch his forecast, haven't seen one for a while :-(

 

I hope he is ok.

 

Latest video now available

 

https://vimeo.com/111841436

 

[Festivefreeze]

What annoys me about these newspapers is how they can't even be consistent with their so-called forecasts. I mean one day the headline will say that we are in for months of bitterly cold temperatures and snow, the next they say we're in for weeks of Atlantic storms and flooding. Funny how they never predict just a normal average winter. Well...that wouldn't make the newspapers fly off the shelves would it?

[Mapantz]

If you look up the definition of forecast, you'll get your answer as to how the papers can get away with it. It'll never stop, so long as they get a couple of words in the article to cover their hiney's, legally.

Edited November 15, 2014 by Mapantz

[Festivefreeze]

I read an article earlier this week, and the headline said that the Beast from the East was coming. Then the article said that we are in for months of Atlantic Storms and above average temperatures. Do some of these newspapers even know what the Beast from the East is? If they want to try to0 convince the public that a mild and wet winter is on its way, then surely they should know that this sort of weather comes from the west!

[IanR]

What nonsense

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-heavy-rain-and-strong-gales-expected-in-wettest-winter-since-1981-9863585.html

[keithlucky]

What nonsense

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-heavy-rain-and-strong-gales-expected-in-wettest-winter-since-1981-9863585.html

Same again http://t.co/J6QlsJsyir

[Formula_1_Fan]

What nonsense

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-heavy-rain-and-strong-gales-expected-in-wettest-winter-since-1981-9863585.html

For some reason I'd expect better from the Independent. My main problem is how can it be the wettest winter since 1981 when earlier this year they were speaking about last winter as the wettest in 100 years (for example link below). Surely it would have to be the wettest since last year? That doesn't sound as catchy I suppose.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/uk-weather-counting-the-cost-of-the-destruction-from-the-wettest-winter-in-a-hundred-years-9122439.html

At the bottom it does go on to say "The research states that this winter being the wettest in 33 years is 25 per cent likely, while the probability has been no higher than 20 per cent for the same time period."

Followed by "The likelihood that it will be the driest on the 33-year record is 15 per cent, while previous years has had estimations at 20 per cent"

So there is a 10% greater chance it will be the wettest in 33 years as apposed to the driest in 33 years. I think they, like many other outlets are misinterpreting the way the met office probability charts should be used to get a good headline.

[Weather-history]

What nonsense

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-heavy-rain-and-strong-gales-expected-in-wettest-winter-since-1981-9863585.html

It's in the Sunday Times as well.

Get the feeling that maybe the source is nearer to the horse's mouth.

Edited November 16, 2014 by Weather-history

[Crepuscular Ray]

Or another part of the horse's anatomy.

[IanR]

last year was months of snow  or 100 days of snow  'shocker' 

 

I think after these silly headlines a cold/frosty possibly drier than average winter is more likely then 

 

[Summer Sun]

So 4 weeks back winter was going to be the coldest for a century

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November

 

Now the same paper is telling us its going to be the wettest in 30 years in another shock warning

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/536136/UK-weather-latest-Britain-flood-wet-winter-30-years

 

[Festivefreeze]

That's exactly what I've noticed too, summer sun. You'd think they'd at least try to be consistent with their 'forecast' if they want to sound educated.

[Essan]

They took their time, but as predicted, the MetO refutal:

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/11/17/wet-wet-wet-this-winter/

(reiterating what I said in my blog this morning)

[ColdFront80]

Seems the Daily Express in predicting both a cold snowy winter and a stormy wet one they have covered themselves for both scenarios sadly Madden has looked himself again in the cold corner I guess because it pulls in more subscribers.

[J10]

Seems the Daily Express in predicting both a cold snowy winter and a stormy wet one they have covered themselves for both scenarios sadly Madden has looked himself again in the cold corner I guess because it pulls in more subscribers.

 

Have they forecast the driest one yet in order to cover all the basis.

Edited November 17, 2014 by J10

[damianslaw]

Even The Times today reported on the Met Office calling for the wettest winter in 30 years - what cobbler. 30 years ago was winter 84/85 which turned out to be rather dry. Have the Met Office forgotten last winter was the wettest on record in England.

 

Such reporting should be banned.

[Festivefreeze]

Surely the law of averages alone is enough to suggest that last year's pattern won't be repeated again this year. I mean mild and wet conditions are always highly likely in a typical British winter, but last year was exceptional right...?

[Barry12]

Surely the law of averages alone is enough to suggest that last year's pattern won't be repeated again this year. I mean mild and wet conditions are always highly likely in a typical British winter, but last year was exceptional right...?

 

Last years pattern won't be repeated, the Polar Vortex is too weak.

[Festivefreeze]

Will a weaker vortex this year, help high pressure to be more dominant than last year?

[Jo Farrow]

The Met. Office have asked a paper for a correction, it won't be the Express, because they would have to do that every other day. So we'll see if they have any success with a page 43 small print line from anyone