Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[damianslaw]

I hope people are learning not to be taken in by the sensationalist headlines - particularly the express with all its talk of snowiest winter for years brutal cold etc. Is the editor really gullible enough to be taken in by some of these headlines - no, but weather headlines sell, and the more extreme sounding the more likely they will sell, despite being inaccurate.

 

20 years ago, such headlines would be having dangerous repurcussions - messing around with people's plans etc, in the days with no internet etc, but now people have become much wiser to them I should think.. so perhaps this is why they can be even more crazy sounding. The word' chaos' is used far too liberally... rarely does weather in Britain create 'scenes of chaos'.

[Jo Farrow]

So how do you think we are fairing against the apocalyptic headlines from last year so far then?

Paul Hudson is counting the 100 days of snow on Twitter, think its up to about 47

[Summer Sun]

Another express headline which isn't going too well.......

 

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/445766/The-BIG-freeze-Get-ready-as-sharp-icy-blast-returns-to-last-three-months

[Coast]

Another express headline which isn't going too well.......

 

and no one has told the wildlife:

 

UK weather: mild spell causes birds to break into song and flowers to bloom

 

The unseasonably mild winter weather has brought early signs of spring, including blooming flowers, budding trees and bird song

 

It may have been a stormy and inhospitable month for many people in Britain, but it seems the unusual weather has also upset the natural world as well. Plants, insects and animals are taking advantage of the unseasonably mild conditions to engage in the kind of behaviour normally seen in the spring.

 

Wildlife experts have received dozens of reports of snowdrops blooming across the UK, nearly a month before they would normally be expected. Trees such as elder have also been spotted budding while in Hampshire are even showing their first leaves. Hazel in Devon, Lincolnshire and Cheshire has also been seen flowering. Some birds have also been recorded nesting while the first reports of song thrush singing arrived on 13 January now several have been spotted around the country.

 

The first Chiffchaff of the season has also been reported in north Wales while the first ladybirds and Red Admiral butterflies have also been spotted. Phenologists, who study the life cycle of plants and animals, claim the early signs of spring are part of a recent trend that has seen natural events arriving around 12 days earlier than the long term average. But with colder conditions forecast for the end of this month, the false start to spring could have a negative impact on many species if colder weather arrives.

 

Dr Kate Laithwaite, the Woodland Trust Nature’s Calendar project manager, said: “I would be really surprised if it stayed mild for the whole January to March period and that is the concern really. “Most shrubs and flowers will probably be all right as they are in the early stages of their annual cycle. “For insects and amphibians it is not so rosy. Ladybirds, for example, have finite energy reserves and nectar at this time of year will be thin on the ground, so they might not make it through to the spring. “Similarly frogs only get one chance to breed each year and if it gets very cold the spawn can freeze and will be lost if they are fooled into breeding too early.â€

 

Since the start of January much of the country has seen temperatures in double figures, with the average temperature for the whole country last week being around 47.6 degrees F. It follows mildest Decembers since 1988, with an average temperature of 42.3 degrees F. The Woodland Trust records sightings of spring from members of the public as part of its Nature’s Calendar project, which is aimed at monitoring the long term changes in the countryside to the climate. Last year Britain saw a similarly warm start to January before experiencing one of the coldest springs on record. It meant that many amphibians and insects suffered poor breeding seasons.

 

Over the past 25 years, flowers such as snowdrops, forest anemone and bluebells have bloomed up to 12 days earlier compared to the long term trend. This year it has already received 50 recordings of hazel flowering, including some as far north as Aberdeenshire, with many branches heavy with catkins They have also received 36 reports of snowdrops flowering, which normally occurs in February, with some appearing as far north as Glasgow and Northumberland. Readers of The Telegraph have also reported some early signs of spring in their gardens, with strawberries flowering in Wokingham and bumblebees in Peasedown St John, Somerset. Rosebud cherry trees have also been seen to have blossom in many parts of the country.

 

The Royal Horticultural Society said they had started receiving some reports of snowdrops flowering but that was increasingly normal for recent years. Daffodils began flowering at Abbotsbury Subtropical Gardens near Weymouth, Dorset, last week while farmers in County Durham moved early spring lambs inside to shelter them from the stormy conditions. However, the heavy rain, strong winds and tidal surges that have accompanied the mild conditions have also taken their toll on many species.

 

Waterfowl such as ducks, which have been nesting earlier than usual due to the mild conditions, had their nests destroyed by flooding. Sussex Wildlife Trust has reported swallows nesting and several species of butterflies on its nature reserve. Staffordshire Wildlife Trust has also reported large displays of snowdrops on its reserve at Loynton Moss. Dr Laithwaite said that weather patterns tend to vary from year to year, affecting plants, insects and animals in different ways. However, she said there had recently been some rapid changes that were forcing species to adapt. She said: “Some species are adapted to stop-start spring weather where it is unseasonably mild and then gets cold. “If this becomes a predominant pattern that we see in the spring, which we believe it is, then some species will struggle.â€

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/wildlife/10574428/UK-weather-mild-spell-causes-birds-to-break-into-song-and-flowers-to-bloom.html

[Summer Sun]

Spring in January as daffodils flower and birds nest: Mild winter means first signs are already showing

• The mild winter has caused nature to wake up ahead of schedule
• Daffodils and snowdrops have already been spotted raising their heads
• Temperatures last month were two degrees higher than average

It should be the coldest time of the year, but already the first signs of spring are emerging. The mild winter has caused nature to wake up ahead of schedule. Daffodils and snowdrops have already been spotted raising their heads, trees are in bud, butterflies are on the wing and birds have started nesting.  Temperatures last month were two degrees higher than average, and most parts of the country have experienced only a handful of frosts since November. Conservationists say the early stirring is part of a trend which has seen spring gradually advance over the years as weather patterns change. The Woodland Trust, which manages Nature's Calendar, a scheme in which members of the public record signs of the changing seasons, said spring is now arriving 12 days earlier on average than it did 25 years ago.

 

The change is bad news for wildlife, because it means animals and plants that emerge early are susceptible to a late frost. In the first two weeks of January there have been 31 reports of snowdrops in sites ranging from Kent to Anglesey, 44 observations of hazel trees flowering from Devon to Lincolnshire and 13 sightings of elder buds bursting. Daffodils have been spotted blooming on Hayling Island off the Hampshire coast. There have been two ladybird sightings, in County Durham and Devon, two records of small tortoiseshell butterflies in Cambridgeshire and Pembrokeshire, and a red admiral has been spotted in Cheshire.

 

Dr Kate Lewthwaite, project manager at the Woodland Trust said: 'People may be surprised to see such spring-like activity in January but Woodland Trust data confirms that it has become more and more common over the last decade or so. 'What this highlights is the importance of having diverse, inter-connected habitats which allow species to react to any changes in climate and adjust accordingly. 'With habitats coming under ever greater threat and fragmentation the pressure on our native flora and fauna will only increase.' Matthew Oates, wildlife specialist at the National Trust, said a genuine cold snap is needed soon to slow down spring's advance.

 

'An early spring is almost invariably a false spring,' he said. 'Everything wakes up and then a frost comes in and it is just not ready for it.'  He added: 'It has been so warm that many mammals and insects have not been properly hibernating and many birds are going into breeding mode already. 'The dawn bird chorus is already very loud - robins and wood pigeons are setting up their territories, finding mates and nesting.' The only thing holding spring 'We need some cold weather to slow everything down,' he added. 'Otherwise there is real danger that the year will launch into another very early spring - and an early spring usually ends in tears.'

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2540251/Spring-January-daffodils-flower-birds-nest-Mild-winter-means-signs-showing.html

 

[Summer Sun]

Daily express trying to explain why the "beast from the east" never arrived no quotes from Madden or Powell though

 

What happened to the dreaded Beast from the East?

 

A FEW days ago the meteorological fraternity was talking about the possibility of a shivering winter blast this week.  Models were showing signs of a bitter cold swathe of air heading towards the UK from Siberia and the Arctic region. On top of this, high pressure leading to clear skies was expected to send the mercury dropping to below zero around the country. Some forecasters warned of heavy snow, particularly in the North where up to four inches was predicted to hit high ground. However the dreaded “Beast from the East†failed to materialise, in fact the past few days have been relatively mild. Temperatures have dropped making it feel much colder and bringing some problems with ice and there has been some snow in parts of the North.

 

But no big freeze, so what has happened? As is always the case in winter there is currently a cold bank of air over Scandinavia and the Arctic region, its effects have been seen in the USA recently. This is held away from the UK by warmer Atlantic air from the West, which recently has been channelled towards the UK by a particularly strong jet stream. This, the Met Office explained, is why we have seen so much wet and windy weather over the past few weeks. Last week, some weather models showed signs that the jet stream was going to weaken significantly and allow this cold air to flood in. However, in the event this didn’t happen and instead it has stayed relatively mild with a more wet and windy picture remaining.

 

Met Office forecaster Helen Chivers said this East vs West battle is ongoing during the winter so the cold could sweep in at any point. She said: “Some of the models were showing the jet stream was going to weaken, and although it has, it is not enough to let the cold air in. “Other models were suggesting this was less likely to happen, which is why it is good to look at a few to get a better idea. “We are always on this battleground at this time of year because of our position.†The temperamental weather had most forecasters fooled. In our monthly newspaper column, former BBC broadcaster Michael Fish was also showing signs of wavering towards warning of a cold snap. He said: “So what can we expect as we head into 2014. The answer is more of the same with further rain although the winds have eased somewhat.

 

“It’s also looking as if it may turn colder around the middle of next week although the models can’t agree as to how much.†Channel 4 weather presenter Liam Dutton took to his blog to warn “winter proper†could pounce this week. He wrote: “The weather computer models are showing signs of a switch in the weather pattern into next week, with something more akin to winter a distinct possibility. “In the coming days, the jet stream is not only going to slow down a bit, but also meander quite far south towards Iberia and the Mediterranean. “The uncertainty at the moment lies in whether the cold or warm air will win.  “Today, the weather models are slightly in favour of the cold air winning, although this is still subject to change.“The concern for Sunday into Monday is that as the cold and warm air battle it out, a band of rain could become slow-moving, which would not be good news given that the ground is still saturated and river levels high – bringing a flood risk.

 

“If the cold air does win the battle, the rain could start to turn to snow later on Monday, as the cold air starts to dig in from the east. “Temperatures are also likely to take a tumble, with widespread frosts at night and highs of 2-6C during the day by Tuesday. “So, there could well be a taste of winter proper next week, but again, it has to be stressed that there is still uncertainty with the detail.â€

 

So what are the chances of a proper British winter this year? The Met Office says the weather is going to be “changeable†for the rest of this month and into February. It’s 30-day outlook states: “The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled and windy weather. “Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see the most prolonged spells of drier and brighter conditions.  “Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, meaning that temperatures overall may well be near or a little below normal.â€

 

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/nathan-rao/454115/What-happened-to-the-dreaded-Beast-from-the-East

[Coast]

Daily express trying to explain why the "beast from the east" never arrived no quotes from Madden or Powell though

 

I think the Twitter discussion between Nathan Rao and Liam Dutton says a lot:

 

https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/423776100456865792

[Summer Sun]

James Madden having a pop at netweather this evening 

The best summer of the 20th century headlines in 2011 came from a detailed forecast from private weather company NETWEATHER at only the end of May.http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/06/flaming-june-could-end-up-a-wa.shtml?postid=109334129This quote appeared in the Sunday Sun article dated 10th April 2011 prior to their incorrect forecast.James Madden said “judging by solar activity and the current ocean atmosphere across the globe, the UK could see more rain and a dip in temperatures in June, July and August. He said: "Based on the factors covered, the summer as a whole could unfortunately be colder than average with above average rainfall."In my opinion, odds of a barbecue summer for this year are slim."RESULT = Coldest UK summer in over two decades, this sky news article was released before final CET adjustments.http://news.sky.com/story/877116/summer-2011-coolest-in-almost-two-decades

 

The NETWEATHER summer forecast for 2012 was also incorrect - Funny how they have so much to say, yet by-pass their own inaccuracies over the years!http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=summer-forecast-2012%3Bsess%3DSUMMER 2012 WAS THE WETTEST IN 100 YEARS!http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/second-wettest-summerMy more accurate forecast (again) from several months ahead of theirs @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78kbN-zAlms&list=PL5714219B98CCDB27&index=33

 

Netweather take huge amounts of money from advertising and also charge for their services @ https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/login.plThey also only issue long-range forecasts at the last minute that often prove wrong. For example the summers of 2011 & 2012All subscribers have received additional reports for FREE from Exacta Weather.You can also talk to a Met Office forecaster for 3 minutes for £21 if you like, despite recent forecasts such as summer 2013 and how they are already funded @ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10279990/Met-Office-forecast-cool-and-wet-summer-instead-of-heatwave.htmlhttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/talkfc

 

https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather

Edited January 16, 2014 by Summer Sun

[The PIT]

His Facebook page is looking a bit ridiculous right now isn't it. What is the point of additional reports if they're wrong?

[UV-RAY]

So it's Net Weathers and the MetO's fault that his forecast is bust ( again ) then.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Madden should count himself bloody lucky he makes any money at all from his sensationalist nonsense. It's about time he had a spectacular failure, although I doubt it will deter the Express from devoting the entire front page to grossly exaggerated or even just made up weather stories from Madden and Powell, or any other charlatan willing to give them a juicy 'extreme weather' quote.

[Paul]

But anyway, absolutely no need to get into a flame war. We got plenty of stick for those summer forecasts, took it on the chin, admitted they didn't go to plan and learnt from it - end of story. Weather forecasters all get forecasts wrong, it's part of the job and the key is to learn from them and move forwards..

[su rui ke]

How the hell can a long-range forecast be 'last minute' (quote from Madden above)?

[The PIT]

At least he hasn't hidden his mistakes from view. All the wrongness in all it's glory in full view. Some people would have removed or altered them.

[Essan]

He does however remove any comments unless they are agreeing with him (though I understand one of mine last night lasted about 42 minutes )

[Weather-history]

But anyway, absolutely no need to get into a flame war. We got plenty of stick for those summer forecasts, took it on the chin, admitted they didn't go to plan and learnt from it - end of story. Weather forecasters all get forecasts wrong, it's part of the job and the key is to learn from them and move forwards..

For me, Paul, I didn't really have problems with the forecast, it was "shades of 76" that was the mistake. No long range forecast, IMO, should try and compare with a past season or have a sound bite. You are asking for trouble. It seems Madden and co haven't. Why do they go for the extreme?

[Jo Farrow]

hopefully it will all point people towards Netweather, All comments on Exacta from last night have been deleted and no comments are allowed at all now. 

I think that says a lot

But reading that stuff you can see that the minute it does snow (when) they will be crying "Oh we were right". I'm not really into a forecast that is delayed by 3 months

and they still have' Exacta say it will be a White Christmas' as a link

 

Jo says - June will be sunny and hot (or maybe Sept) -- whichever I'm still right and you are wrong!!  

[The PIT]

For me, Paul, I didn't really have problems with the forecast, it was "shades of 76" that was the mistake. No long range forecast, IMO, should try and compare with a past season or have a sound bite. You are asking for trouble.It seems Madden and co haven't. Why do they go for the extreme?

It gets them noticed that's why.  Then they hit lucky once and then some people always think they're right regardless. I've not taken much notice of Madden does he move his forecasts around to the nearest event like another well known person does or he just ignore the fact that it was wrong?

[Jo Farrow]

this was on social media so not sure if it counts 

but an interesting insite

Weather – an industry under attack?

 

http://weatherman79.wordpress.com/2014/01/

[UV-RAY]

But anyway, absolutely no need to get into a flame war. We got plenty of stick for those summer forecasts, took it on the chin, admitted they didn't go to plan and learnt from it - end of story. Weather forecasters all get forecasts wrong, it's part of the job and the key is to learn from them and move forwards..

And that's how it should be Paul, you get it wrong and learn from those mistakes. Get it right and say nothing as the forecast says it all for you.

[Bobby]

this was on social media so not sure if it counts 

but an interesting insite

Weather – an industry under attack?

 

http://weatherman79.wordpress.com/2014/01/

 

That's an excellent article, exposes the 'dodgy' forecasters and defends the proper meteorologists well, worth a read.

[whiskers]

"We estimate that within about 40 years or so there is a 10% to 20% - nearer 20% - probability that we'll be back in Maunder Minimum conditions."

The era of solar inactivity in the 17th Century coincided with a period of bitterly cold winters in Europe.

Londoners enjoyed frost fairs on the Thames after it froze over, snow cover across the continent increased, the Baltic Sea iced over - the conditions were so harsh, some describe it as a mini-Ice Age.

And Prof Lockwood believes that this regional effect could have been in part driven by the dearth of activity on the Sun, and may happen again if our star continues to wane.

"It's a very active research topic at the present time, but we do think there is a mechanism in Europe where we should expect more cold winters when solar activity is low," he says.

He believes this local effect happens because the amount of ultraviolet light radiating from the Sun dips when solar activity is low.

This means that less UV radiation hits the stratosphere - the layer of air that sits high above the Earth. And this in turn feeds into the jet stream - the fast-flowing air current in the upper atmosphere that can drive the weather. Just read this on bbc news,there's more to it if you want to read it.

[Summer Sun]

Wettest ever winter goes on... keep your brolly handy

 

BRITAIN faces at least another ­fortnight of flood misery as this ­winter shapes up to be the wettest on record. Parts of the UK are braced for more storms next week with gales of up to 80mph set to batter coastal areas. Torrential and persistent downpours will bring more chaos to towns and villages still under inches of floodwater after recent storms. The South, which has so far borne the brunt of much of the wet weather, will be worst hit again. The Met Office has issued a severe weather warning for rain in the South-west today with more than an inch expected in parts. Weeks of rain have left ground saturated and river levels dangerously high. Flooding problems have blighted swathes of the UK since Christmas, swamping homes and crippling transport networks.

 

Parts of the South have endured the worst floods for two decades with the cost of the clean-up set to run into billions of pounds. Heavy rain continued to batter parts of the country yesterday morning with more than an inch falling in Charlwood, Surrey. Up to an inch fell in West Sussex and around London with another deluge set to lash the region today. The warnings come as Met Office figures show this ­winter has already seen eight inches of rain in England. The average for December to February is nine inches while England’s record for the wettest winter in ­history is 16 inches in 1914/15.

 

Netweather warned showers could turn wintry by next weekend. It said there was an almost 60 per cent chance of snow as far south as Kent by next Sunday.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/454597/Wettest-ever-winter-goes-on-keep-your-brolly-handy

 

Floods drench homes and leave people trapped in cars in latest weather chaos

 

WASHED-OUT Britain will be drenched again today with torrential new downpours bringing yet more flood chaos. Parts of the south-east are already under water, with trains cancelled and motorists stranded following Thursday’s deluge. But weathermen warned that the west, the West Midlands, northern England and southern Scotland will also be badly hit today. Firefighters had to free seven people, including a child, from vehicles in Kent yesterday and pumped water out of 18 flooded homes. A man had a lucky escape at Romsey, Hants, after his car began sinking in muddy flood-water after smashing into a tree. He managed to struggle free before being rescued by firemen. The AA pulled 100 cars from flood-water, mostly in Surrey and Essex.

 

Rescue team chief Darron Burness said: “It’s gone a bit mad with a massive surge in flood call-outs.†Rail passengers were also hit after a tunnel between Brighton and London became flooded. Trains between Bedford and London were cancelled after overhead power lines were damaged, while services in Kent and Surrey suffered long delays. The Environment Agency had 36 flood warnings in place last night, meaning flooding is expected. Another 145 alerts warned flooding was possible. A spokesman said: “People should avoid driving or walking through flood water. Just 15cm fast-flowing water can knock an adult off their feet.â€

 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/361090/Floods-drench-homes-and-leave-people-trapped-in-cars-in-latest-weather-chaos

[Summer Sun]

Is a mini ice age on the way? Scientists warn the Sun has 'gone to sleep' and say it could cause temperatures to plunge

 

The Sun's activity is at its lowest for 100 years, scientists have warned. They say the conditions are eerily similar to those before the Maunder Minimum, a time in 1645 when a mini ice age hit, Freezing London's River Thames. Researcher believe the solar lull could cause major changes, and say there is a 20% chance it could lead to 'major changes' in temperatures. Whatever measure you use, solar peaks are coming down,' Richard Harrison of the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire told the BBC.

 

'I've been a solar physicist for 30 years, and I've never seen anything like this.' He says the phenomenon could lead to colder winters similar to those during the Maunder Minimum. 'There were cold winters, almost a mini ice age.  'You had a period when the River Thames froze.' Lucie Green of UCL believes that things could be different this time due to human activity.'We have 400 years of observations, and it is in a very similar to phase as it was in the runup to the Maunder Minimum. 'The world we live in today is very different, human activity may counteract this - it is difficult to say what the consequences are.'

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2541599/Is-mini-ice-age-way-Scientists-warn-Sun-gone-sleep-say-cause-temperatures-plunge.html

[Summer Sun]

Britain braced for more flooding as the country prepares to be lashed with up to four centimetres of rain in just 14 hours

 

Parts of the UK are at risk from further flooding today as four centimetres of rain is expected to fall in 14 hours. The Met Office this morning issued two yellow warnings - one for south-west England and South Wales and the other for the east coast of Northern Ireland. Up to a third of January's expected rainfall, about 3-4cm, could fall on already sodden ground. The average UK rainfall for January is 12cm.  The Environment Agency has more than 40 flood warnings in place, most of which are in the South East and South West. Given continued saturated ground conditions, forecasters say the public should be aware of the likelihood of localised flooding. The Met Office's warning was valid from 5am and runs until 7pm.

 

A spokesman said this morning: 'We are expecting persistent and heavy rain today. 'Rain, heavy and persistent in places, will continue to affect much of south-west England and South Wales this morning, slowly clearing again from the west this afternoon. Krista Mitchell from the Met Office added: 'Given that the ground there is already quite saturated there's a risk of localised flooding.' She said  2cm is expected but some parts could see 3cm-40cm. The Environment Agency has 41 flood warnings - 23 in the South East, 11 in the South West, five in Anglia and two in the Midlands. There are 150 flood alerts in place. Eight people have died and more than 1,700 homes and businesses have been flooded in England since the beginning of the Christmas period. Despite the storms, temperatures have been relatively mild for January, with the thermometer rising as high as 10C.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2541707/Britain-braced-flooding-country-prepares-lashed-four-centimetres-rain-just-14-hours.html