Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[syed2878]

umm where was this icey december? Wet and floody yes but icy dec they make it sound like this country was in the freazer.

[Methuselah]

Lest we forget?? The Express actually prides itself on getting its weather-predictions right!!!

[Summer Sun]

Deluge finally ends as 2013 paves way for dry and mild January

WITH families still feeling the aftermath of one of the wettest years on record, January 2013 is set to be dry and mild. Temperatures are set to leap up 3-4 degrees with much of Britain staying mostly dry during the first weeks of the year. Relentless downpours and heavy rain have caused widespread flooding across the country in December as a white Christmas was replaced by grey and cloudy showers. But 2013 is set to have drier beginning as forecasters predict a bright and breezy start for many. A spokesman for the Met Office said: "It will be bright, with sunny intervals for many and it will be dry with clear spells in central and eastern areas.

"This change to much drier weather looks set to last into the first weekend of January and the following week.†But 2012 wasn't going to leave without giving us a good soaking, as torrential rain battered Britain last night. Up to 1.3 inches of rain fell in areas of Wales and the south of England while hundreds of Environment Agency staff were out in force, monitoring river levels and shoring up defences.More than 800 had already worked round the clock all over Christmas. The dry weather will be a welcome respite as Britain begins to count the cost of the floods, with the disruption costing the country as much as £13billion. Research by insurers, tourism chiefs, farmers, industry and transport firms, estimates the floods alone have cost £3billion this year.

http://beta.dailyexpress.co.uk/news/uk/368106/Deluge-finally-ends-as-2013-paves-way-for-dry-and-mild-January

[Summer Sun]

More floods for washout Britain but look on the bright side: Daffodils bloom in Cornwall and week of dry weather ahead

Victims of flooding just weeks ago faced further clean-ups today after rivers burst their banks again across the North - but forecasters predict the weather will improve. Thirteen separate flood warnings were issued across the Yorkshire region, the majority of which were in York and surrounding villages. In Oxfordshire, a road on land that had been flooded recently was closed after it was torn apart by subsidence. The Environment Agency said 76 flood warnings - meaning flooding is expected and immediate action should be taken - were in force nationwide today. There were also 109 flood alerts nationwide, warning residents to be on their guard as floods are expected. Many of the communities affected have been trying to get back on their feet after serious localised flooding in November.

An Environment Agency spokesman said: 'Despite the improving weather conditions, there is a continued risk of localised flooding over the next few days as river and groundwater levels are still high.' Riverside communities along the Ouse in Yorkshire and Thames are among those at risk, the spokesman added. Groundwater levels are high in Berkshire, south Gloucestershire and parts of Lincolnshire and temporary flood defences remain in place along the Severn at several locations including Ironbridge and Upton. The River Ouse in central York, which has flooded several times in the past few weeks, has burst its banks again and is currently more than 13ft (4m) above its average summer level. Pumps were being used to clear water from pubs, restaurants, homes and hotels along its banks today. Many of the businesses hit were in the process of being renovated and have not been able to reopen since November's deluge.

Residents in several villages along the Ouse to the south of the city, including Fulford, Acaster Selby, Acaster Malbis and Naburn, were either flooded or cut off by standing water. Valerie Brown, who has lived in the village of Acaster Malbis for 50 years, was mopping up dark brown floodwater and silt in her riverside cottage today. 'We were flooded at the end of October, at the end of November, on Christmas Eve it threatened - it came right on to the doorstep - and then again at New Year. 'It's been a different New Year. I can't recommend it. We hadn't got the house right again since the end of November because we were going to have the walls replastered. We haven't got that done. The ironic thing is we ordered floodgates. If we'd had them last night we'd have been fine.' Tourists staying on a caravan site in nearby Naburn said they were marooned, unable to get on or off the site, after knee-high water engulfed roads through the village.

One said: 'We can't move. I was meant to be back at work today but we can't go anywhere.' The Highways Agency said none of Britain's major roads have been closed due to flooding.

The Environment Agency said areas that were worst-affected today, including York's surrounding villages and Wargrave, Purley and Shiplake along the Thames, should experience an improvement in coming days as the water recedes. Work is also taking place to ensure that rivers can drain and flow freely in other parts of southern England, including Dorset, Hampshire, Wiltshire, West and East Sussex, it added. The Met Office said dryer weather is due for the remainder of this week and into the weekend, with less rain expected next week. In Cornwall, the first daffodils of the year were seen. Forecaster Charlie Powell said: 'Those conditons will, by and large, last through the rest of the weekend and the theme of much more settled conditions will continue until at least Monday.' Forecasters say 2012 is currently the fourth wettest year for the UK since records began in 1910 and, with the rainfall over the last week, the likelihood of it becoming a new record is being 'closely watched'. In Oxfordshire, a rift opened up along a road surface, exposing layers of earth to the shock of neighbours and road users.

The route, which links Oxford to the nearby market town of Abingdon, was closed to traffic after it was torn apart by subsidence. A deluge of rain over the Christmas holidays was the final straw for the Oxford Road in Boars Hill, near Oxford, which is regularly used by traffic attempting to avoid the A34 dual carriageway. Cracks stretch to up to two-feet wide in places and the rural through-road has been closed and sealed off by engineers. The white centre lines were shifted over to one side as the road sank - and the damage could get even worse with forecasters predicting more downpours next week. Highways bosses have now been faced with having to replace the road surface entirely. It's obviously going to take some fixing,' said Owen Morton, spokesman for Oxford County Council. 'It's subsidence. There's been a lot of heavy rain and that can cause this sort of damage.'

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2GqXZby2C

[snowking]

Thought this might be better in here

Whether it is deemed for this thread or not i cannot decide, it is sort of discussing the winter models i guess?.... Anyhow, Pier Corbyn (im sure many eyes will roll seeing this) clearly stuck to his guns with his "Battle of Britain" forecast for December, with the mild air winning, well that was correct...he's now going for "JANUARY 2013 WILL BE REMEMBERED. RU READY?"

(Sorry if this is best for the media thread)

I too am sticking with other peoples thoughts on here that the models will only start to build consistency once the SSW has occured.

I think in all fairness to Piers this time he was pretty spot on. He stuck to his guns throughout the model potential we all saw, and I am only happy to praise a correct forecast (and I can't claim to be a huge fan of his!).

What I find even more interesting, though, is that using the same factoring (as far as I understand, Solar-Lunar interaction/effects) Piers and Roger J Smith disagree slightly, with Piers suggesting cold spells in Jan, whilst Roger more suggestive of nothing too substantial until February (or very late Jan at the earliest)

SK

[Summer Sun]

Why the weather could put British lawns out to grass

IMMACULATE British lawns will become a thing of the past as changing weather patterns make it impossible to create the perfect garden. Experts fear the summer will be prone to extreme weather conditions in years to come, with periods of torrential rain and prolonged droughts becoming the norm. As a result, maintaining a classic lawn will become more difficult, prompting warnings that gardeners seeking the “bowling green†look will have to make do with rougher grass instead. Drier springs and wetter summers will also mean plants in beds and borders will struggle to flourish. The stark warning was made by experts from the Met Office and the horticultural world during a recent Royal Horticultural Society conference. Professor Richard Bisgrove, an expert in turf management and garden history, believes people will have to abandon attempts at the perfect lawn.

Instead gardeners should raise the height of their lawn mower blades in the summertime to ensure a healthy patch of grass. The retired University of Reading academic said: “My view is that climate change won’t affect gardens dramatically but the weather will. “Nobody can tell one year to the next what we will have. “In terms of grass, I would say to a large extent the less effort you put into it the better. People should accept a slightly higher cut of grass, more daisies and buttercups. “In general, intensive inputs into grass management are futile. If you are after the perfect lawn you have to cut it closely, at least once a week.

The Met Office is today set to reveal whether 2012 was the wettest year on record in the UK.

http://beta.dailyexp...ns-out-to-grass

UK Weather Saw Dramatic Shift In 2012

The exceptional change in Britain's weather from droughts to flooding is being described as one of the most dramatic transformations in decades. The analysis from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology comes as the Met Office prepares to say whether 2012 was the wettest year since records began. Professor Alan Jenkins told Sky News that the shift from dry to wet conditions in the past 10 months has been remarkable. "Back in March we were looking at a very dry situation and we were heading into one of the biggest droughts that the south east of England has ever experienced. "So the wet year of 2012 - if it is the wettest - will be based really on nine very wet months rather than 12, so you can imagine that's a lot of rain."

While water companies last summer imposed hosepipe bans on 20 million customers, a very wet December has caused widespread flooding. But the flood waters are also a sign that our natural water storage underground is full and that any more rain water will go to waste. With many reservoirs also now topped up, this has led to calls for more storage areas to be built to harvest rainfall more efficiently and stop a repeat of last year's hosepipe bans.

The Environment Agency has already predicted there won't be any need for hosepipe bans this year. Recent rainfall has meant south east England has enough water to get through two dry winters without a drought, but other areas including the North West and Wales are more vulnerable.

http://news.sky.com/story/1032740/uk-weather-saw-dramatic-shift-in-2012

[Summer Sun]

Extreme rainfall in UK 'increasing'

The frequency of extreme rainfall in the UK may be increasing, according to analysis by the Met Office. Statistics show that days of particularly heavy rainfall have become more common since 1960. The analysis is still preliminary, but the apparent trend mirrors increases in extreme rain seen in other parts of the world. It comes as the Met Office prepares to reveal whether 2012 was the wettest year on record in the UK. The study into extreme rain is based on statistics from the National Climate Information Centre, the UK's official climate record. Upwards trend Extreme rain is defined as the sort of downpour you would expect once in 100 days. There are big swings in rainfall from year to year, but the overall trend is upwards since 1960. Last year, for instance, extreme rain fell around once every 70 days. The phenomenon of more frequent downpours has already been noted elsewhere, particularly in China and India.

Scientists say that as the world has warmed by 0.7C, the atmosphere is able to hold 4% more moisture, which means more potential rain. The change in the UK trend is slight, but if the trend is confirmed it will clearly increase the risk of flooding. This year is already the wettest in England's recorded history. And a series of downpours in late November brought one of the wettest weeks in the last 50 years, causing major disruption. Professor Julia Slingo, chief scientist at the Met Office, said the preliminary analysis needed further research but was potentially significant. "We have always seen a great deal of variability in UK extreme rainfall because our weather patterns are constantly changing, but this analysis suggests we are seeing a shift in our rainfall behaviour," she said. "There's evidence to say we are getting slightly more rain in total, but more importantly it may be falling in more intense bursts - which can increase the risk of flooding.

The Met Office no longer publishes a seasonal forecast and will not speculate on whether 2013 will produce frequent extreme rain. The immediate forecast, however, is for more stable weather.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20896049

[Summer Sun]

Washout 2012 was second wettest year on record… and forecasters warn extreme rainfall is only going to get WORSE

2012 was the second wettest year in British history, the Met Office has revealed today. Official figures show that 1,330mm (52.4 inches) of rain fell in the last year - just 7mm short of the highest total reached in 2000. Depressingly this new data also shows that four of the five wettest years ever to hit the UK have been since the Millennium. It came as Met Office figures also showed the number of days of extreme rainfall is also hitting record levels, meaning the UK can expect more years of floods. The top five wettest years in the records dating back to 1910 are 2000, 2012, 1954, 2008 and 2002, the figures show. The UK as a whole had 15 per cent more rainfall than average during the year, with England experiencing almost a third more rain than normal.

The Met Office said changes in sea surface temperatures as a result of natural cycles and a reduction in the amount of Arctic sea ice could be helping to increase rainfall, but more research needed to be done to establish how big a role they were playing. Long-term averages over 30-year periods show an increase in annual rainfall of about five per cent from 1981-2010 when compared to 1961-1990. It has also been revealed that torrential rain heavy enough to cause flash flooding is on the rise and climate change is probably the cause, a different Met Office study looking at the last 50 years of figures has revealed today. Official statistics show during the 1960s the heaviest rains of the year fell on an average of one in 125 days a year, but now it is closer to one in 75 days.

The Met Office's chief scientist Julia Slingo says that the frequency of extreme rainfall events in the UK looks to be increasing. 'What this data is telling us is that the nature of our rainfall is changing and what we are seeing is more intense rain, more regularly,' she told MailOnline. 'There’s evidence we are getting slightly more rain in total, but more importantly it may be falling in more intense bursts – which can increase the risk of flooding,' she said. 'What this means is that when it raining there is more potential for more flash floods and surface water floods, like the ones we have seen this year. This means we have to look at the strength of our flood defences and also our drainage systems, including the use of more permeable surfaces.'

Rising temperatures are being blamed as for every 0.7 degrees the global temperatures rises, clouds can hold four per cent more rain, the Met Office has said. 'The data we have bears out that warmer air holds more water,' Julia Slingo said. It appears that in the long term, with a mix of years of high rainfall and years of drought. But the overall trend shows that there has been consistently more heavy rain in the last 50 years. In the early 1970s there were as few as one in 155 days of the heaviest rainfall, while in in 2000 - the wettest year on record, there were torrential downpours on one in 60 days.

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2GvHX3Izk

[Summer Sun]

Weather bureau predicts more frequent, more intense heatwaves in 2013

AUSTRALIA is this year forecast to experience more frequent and more intense heatwaves as the weather pattern that caused significant rain in early 2012 well and truly disappears. The Bureau of Meteorology today warned the record-breaking high temperatures expected in the next couple of days across the nation's southern states are likely to become more frequent this year. Fire authorities are on high alert as some parts of Australia are predicted to have seven days with temperatures above 40C. In its annual Australian Climate Statement, released today, the bureau reported 2012 was characterised by wet weather and cooler temperatures in the beginning of the year and record-breaking high temperatures in the second half of the year. It says the La Nina weather pattern caused significant rainfall and flooding in the first three months of 2012, making it the seventh-wettest January to March on record.

But the country began to heat up once La Nina disappeared in April, leading to little rainfall in autumn and winter. Spring around the nation was characterised by scorching temperatures, with Ouyen in Victoria's Mallee region reaching 45.8C in November, a new record high for spring in the state, while Alice Springs hit record-high temperatures for September at 38.8C and October at 41.7C. The contrasting hot and cold conditions across the year led to an averaging out in overall temperatures, with the nation recording its 36th hottest year on record and 44th wettest year on record. Meteorologist David Jones told The Australian the heatwaves experienced in winter and spring would continue across the summer and into this year. “We are going to see more of them and more intense ones,†he said.

Dr Jones said early predictions for 2013 were that it is going to be hotter than 2012 because there will be no La Nina impact.

“It's likely to be very warm for Australia,†he said. “Early advice from our international colleagues is that it could well be the globe's warmest year on record.†Dr Jones said 2012 was divided into three parts when it came to the weather, with La Nina causing cooler conditions in January to March, below average rainfall in autumn and winter and then the country began to heat up in spring when La Nina disappeared. “We saw record heatwaves in September, October and November across the country,†he said.

The 2012 Australian Climate Statement comes as emergency services are on high alert, with parts of Australia tipped to have seven days with temperatures above 40C. Roxby Downs and Oodnadatta in South Australia's outback are set to sizzle with six days in a row above 45C and the tiny town of Tarcoola is forecast to reach 47C on Monday. Temperatures will remain above 40C for the next six or seven days in many other inland parts of Australia, including the towns of Mildura and Ouyen in Victoria.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/weather-bureau-predicts-more-frequent-more-intense-heatwaves-in-2013/story-e6frg6xf-1226547058332

[syed2878]

so how long will it take the power's that be to use this to their scaire munggering globle warming boolonions. Sorry nw i understand u guys r pro gw.

[cscrim]

for those that missed the John Hammond forecast last night

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01ph60q/BBC_Weather_03_01_2013/

[Summer Sun]

Long-term forecast: Monsoons

MONSOONS could batter Britain in future as experts warned that the kind of torrential rain seen in India or China is on the way. Changing climate is already leading to much wetter weather. And fierce rainfall and widespread flooding could become a regular occurrence in the next decade. Professor Julia Slingo, chief ­scientist at the Met Office, said: “The trend towards more extreme rainfall events is one we are seeing around the world, in countries such as India and China, and now potentially here in the UK.†Professor Nigel Arnell, of Reading University, said last year’s weather fitted a pattern which has seen rainfall increase in many parts of the northern hemisphere. He said: “While rainfall varies naturally from year to year and decade to decade, there is increasing evidence that the build-up of greenhouse gases is starting to affect rainfall across the globe. That means we are likely to see flood frequency increase further.†New UK figures show that average long-term rainfall increased by about five per cent between the periods 1961-1990 and 1981-2010.

In records going back to 1910, four of the top five wettest years were recent – 2000, 2012, 2008 and 2002. The only exception was 1954, which was the third wettest. “Extreme†rainfall also appears to be more frequent. This is classified as heavy falls which usually happen every 100 days – but last year increased to every 70 days. The Met Office said changes in sea surface temperatures as a result of natural cycles and a reduction in Arctic sea ice could increase rainfall. Rising global temperatures – up 0.7C in 250 years – could also be contributing, as a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. The Institution of Civil Engineers called for a strategy to cope with drought as well as floods. The institution’s water expert Michael Norton said: “Without a strategy, we will continue to swing from flooding to drought – and climate change will only exacerbate the situation.â€

http://beta.dailyexp...recast-Monsoons

2012 SECOND WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD

BATTERED Britain’s washout 2012 was the second wettest year since records began. The Met Office says last year’s miserable total rainfall figure of 1,330.7mm has been beaten only once in more than 100 years. And it was just 6.6mm short of the all-time record set in 2000. Last year was the wettest ever when looked at England alone and the third wettest ever for Wales. But forecasters say “extreme rainfallâ€, which is capable of causing deadly flash floods, is becoming more common as our weather patterns change. According to the Environment Agency, more than 7,000 UK properties were affected by floods in 2012. In a statement, the agency said: “We have always seen a great deal of variability in UK rainfall because our weather patterns are constantly changing. “However, preliminary evidence suggests we are getting slightly more rain in total and it may be falling in more intense bursts.†Forecasters summed up last year as “exceptionally wetâ€.

Bookies Coral are already offering odds of 7-1 that 2013 becomes the wettest ever in the UK. And they are offering 33-1 that it will rain every day during this summer’s Wimbledon tennis tournament.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/291118/2012-second-wettest-year-on-record/

[Methuselah]

so how long will it take the power's that be to use this to their scaire munggering globle warming boolonions. Sorry nw i understand u guys r pro gw.

Not 'pro' anything, syed. Just going where the evidence points...

[UV-RAY]

Not 'pro' anything, syed. Just going where the evidence points...

Can of worms this one, but the evidence paints a picture of flatlined temps over the last 16 years. Off course the next 16 may see warming increase, or remain the same, or even decline.

[Summer Sun]

Australia Heatwave Leads To Bushfire Alert

The Australian Prime Minister warns people to take care as 80% of the country experiences the most extreme heatwave in years.

Australians are sweltering through one of the worst heatwaves for years, with temperatures well above 40C in some places. Much of the country will be on alert for bushfires this weekend as temperatures reach record levels. Adelaide in southern Australia registered a top temperature of 45C (113 Fahrenheit) on Friday, its fourth-hottest day on record. Around 80% of the country has been affected by the mass of hot air spreading east from Western Australia.

Emergency services warned of the risk of bushfires that could threaten homes and farms and health officials are urging people to drink plenty of water and stay out of the heat. Experts say the last time such large areas of the country experienced similar heat was in 2001. John Nairn, of The Bureau of Meteorology, said that while heatwaves are a normal part of the Australian summer, the current blast is unusual for the large area it is covering. Among the hottest parts of the country on Friday were Wudinna, on South Australia's Eyre Peninsula, which hit 48.2C. Hobart reached a record 41.8C - one degree hotter than the record set in 1976. Tasmania Fire Service chief officer Mike Brown told a news conference they reached "catastrophic fire danger ratings" at times during Friday afternoon, with up to 40 fires burning around the state.

The bureau of meteorology told The Australian that the scorching heat bearing down across many states will continue "unabated" well into next week. Prime Minister Julia Gillard has called on people to be careful. "Take care and stay safe as we face extreme heat around our nation. Listen to warnings on the high bushfire risk. JG," she tweeted. Police have also warned that leaving children, elderly people or pets unattended in cars could prove fatal in the hot weather.

http://news.sky.com/story/1033251/australia-heatwave-leads-to-bushfire-alert

[Grinzzz]

Part of Liam Duttons Blog on Ch4 website discussing upcoming weather. First mention I've seen of SSW outside of specialist sites/twitter etc.

Any signs of colder weather?

In recent days, I’ve had quite a few people asking me on Twitter, Facebook and Google+ whether or not there are signs of it turning colder with snow.

The weather computer models are hinting towards a general downward trend in temperature from the middle of January onwards, but at this stage, there is a lot of uncertainty about how cold it is going to get.

Another interesting event that is about to take place in the upper part of the atmosphere (the stratosphere), is a sudden stratospheric warming – SSW for short.

What happens when sudden stratospheric warming occurs?

During the winter months, a polar vortex sits across the north pole in the upper part of the atmosphere. Effectively, this is a huge area of lower pressure around which air flows from west to east in the northern hemisphere – known as a zonal flow.

The presence of this zonal flow keeps the weather generally unsettled, with low pressure systems at the surface affecting mid-latitudes locations, such as the UK and north America.

However, sometimes, a sudden significant warming can occur in the stratosphere, which has the effect of disrupting the polar vortex and the winds that rotate around it.

Initially, the normal west to east flow of air is disrupted 30-50km up in the atmosphere, where it slows down or reverses direction completely. At this point, because it is so high up, it has little effect on the weather we experience at the surface.

But what can happen in certain cases is that this disruption of the west to east flow of air can gradually percolate down to the surface. When this happens, blocking areas of high pressure are more likely to form, potentially bringing a big change in weather patterns.

At this stage, it is too early to tell exactly what the outcome of the imminent SSW will be because the places getting the coldest air will depend on the location and orientation of any blocking high pressures that form.

Nevertheless, the second half of the month could prove interesting – something that I’ll keep you updated on here in my blog and on Twitter – @liamdutton

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/year-brings-weather/2730

[Coast]

Part of Liam Duttons Blog on Ch4 website discussing upcoming weather. First mention I've seen of SSW outside of specialist sites/twitter etc.

I do like Liam's blogs very straight forward!

[weather eater]

flat line temps no idea, but I hope they are more flat line than Joe Bs arctic summer ice melt recovery that he was spouting two years ago that was a remarkably poor call. And 16 years last I heard it was supposedly five, I guess it depends on who’s making the statements as some say there has been no levelling off. I suspect people believe whoever they think is backing up their own gut feeling.

[syed2878]

like i before on this verry forum i've never bought into the gw crap and i never will. How ever i do beleave climate change and climate change isn't glowble warming.

[kumquat]

I don't think it is natural variation. Our recent colder winters, cooler/unsettled summers are linked in my opinion. Im not sure why you say "wild and wonderful theories", it is widely accepted that the little ice age was caused by the maunder minimum.

Lets have a look at what can cause a sudden change in the climate.

1. Solar minimum.

2. Volcanic eruptions.

3. Shut down of the Gulf stream.

Now obviously the jet stream in summer normally does vary in its position and if it remains to the N of the UK this gives the Azores HP change to move in. What has not been normal in recent years is its persistant position being further S. This is why our longest hot spell this summer stands at 2 days!

Whilst I don't feel our recent volcanic eruptions have been strong enough to change our climate, the low solar activity has done and in my opinion will continue to do so!

Did anybody research shut down of the gulf stream (I'm sure they must be). Theory: Unprecedented ice melt and calving leading to large volume non-salt water entering the Northern and Southern Oceans. Will lead to a mixing out of the thermohaline conveyor. Just throwing this in - what's the current (no pun intended) thinking on this?

[weather eater]

like i before on this verry forum i've never bought into the gw crap and i never will. How ever i do beleave climate change and climate change isn't glowble warming.

Doesn’t really matter if you do or you don’t because nobody is going to do anything about it, if the sceptics are right then all well and good, if they are wrong then we will all know about it.

Kumquat as for ice melt effecting the North Atlantic current that’s just a theory some have recently suggested that’s already happening but as far as I know it remains a theory. In regards the Arctic I would be happy to take a large bet that we will come close to, or break last summer’s melt, there is certainly no recovery of ice extent this winter it’s riding along at just under the 2007/08 record low mark, so the ice will be under great pressure during the summer especially give the large area of first year ice. Consequently the much lauded Joe B will again be wide of the mark, mainly because he is working from what he wants to happen rather than what is actually happening as so many of his forecasts.

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Temperatures falling as the week goes on

[ClevedonDave]

Part of Liam Duttons Blog on Ch4 website discussing upcoming weather. First mention I've seen of SSW outside of specialist sites/twitter etc.

Any signs of colder weather?

In recent days, I’ve had quite a few people asking me on Twitter, Facebook and Google+ whether or not there are signs of it turning colder with snow.

The weather computer models are hinting towards a general downward trend in temperature from the middle of January onwards, but at this stage, there is a lot of uncertainty about how cold it is going to get.

Another interesting event that is about to take place in the upper part of the atmosphere (the stratosphere), is a sudden stratospheric warming – SSW for short.

What happens when sudden stratospheric warming occurs?

During the winter months, a polar vortex sits across the north pole in the upper part of the atmosphere. Effectively, this is a huge area of lower pressure around which air flows from west to east in the northern hemisphere – known as a zonal flow.

The presence of this zonal flow keeps the weather generally unsettled, with low pressure systems at the surface affecting mid-latitudes locations, such as the UK and north America.

However, sometimes, a sudden significant warming can occur in the stratosphere, which has the effect of disrupting the polar vortex and the winds that rotate around it.

Initially, the normal west to east flow of air is disrupted 30-50km up in the atmosphere, where it slows down or reverses direction completely. At this point, because it is so high up, it has little effect on the weather we experience at the surface.

But what can happen in certain cases is that this disruption of the west to east flow of air can gradually percolate down to the surface. When this happens, blocking areas of high pressure are more likely to form, potentially bringing a big change in weather patterns.

At this stage, it is too early to tell exactly what the outcome of the imminent SSW will be because the places getting the coldest air will depend on the location and orientation of any blocking high pressures that form.

Nevertheless, the second half of the month could prove interesting – something that I’ll keep you updated on here in my blog and on Twitter – @liamdutton

http://blogs.channel...gs-weather/2730

thank you for explaining SSW i now understand what people are talking about very interesting indeed

[Lynxus]

China Extreme Cold - 100's of ships stranded as sea freezes.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2257995/Trapped-icy-prison-1-000-ships-stranded-frozen-ocean-China-gripped-extreme-cold-snap.html

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online Month ahead forecast

Valid from 06/01 to 05/02 2013

Winter may be ahead

Issued: Sunday 6th January 2013 2012

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Is winter about to strike?

If you can call this remotely anything like 'winter'..... then during the short term period high pressure may be something more akin to it? Higher pressures across the UK will be in control of the pattern through to the middle period of January, the majority of the UK therefore seeing a noticeable alteration in the recent conditions, wet and cloudy weather, replaced with brighter but colder weather.

*... 21/1/13*

Frost and fog will become widespread and where this persists through daylight hours it'll remain cloudy and distinctly chilly, where it clears, rather pleasant, cold but bright mid-winter conditions will establish. There is the possibility of wintry showers developing almost anywhere especially coastal areas exposed to onshore winds, but primarily there'll be a good deal of dry if rather chilly weather on offer, this pattern expected to hold through to the mid- January period. There is evidence albeit tentative that high pressure may hold fast and the wintry weather continues into early February, however this is not substantial at this time and on that basis only the pattern has to be weighted towards a change taking place later this month.

*21/1/13 to 31/1/13*

Into the third week there are indications that the Atlantic westerly may attempt to kick in once more and bring a milder regime back into all areas, with rain and stronger winds establishing, high pressure retreating and allowing low pressure to take control of the pattern. This transition may be 'messy' and erratic but any wintry weather should be replaced by less cold but cloudier conditions. An unsettled regime looks likely to persist into the latter stages of the month, the most disturbed conditions look set to affecting north-western and western Britain, a build of high pressure to the south should see southern and south-eastern areas of England drier and sunnier for the most part, temperatures here generally holding up.

*1/2/13 to 6/2/13*

Into the beginning of February the Atlantic and low pressure are looking as if they'll be continuing to remain in control, so the generally unsettled and mild-side regime the order of the day.

Simon & Capn Bob

http://www.weatheron...ad&DAY=20130106

Weather Online seasonal forecast

Not looking too bad

Spring may start nice

Issued: Sunday 6th January 2013

Duty forecasters: Captain Bob

*February*

The first 10 days of the month look as it'll see a mainly westerly orientated flow across all areas of the UK, this be strong at times with gales in exposed western and northwestern areas, low pressure tracking close to the UK at times. Rain will be heavy at times, but carried through quite quickly on a brisk flow, the flow may swing into the southwest occasionally and this will ensure that temperatures will hold up quite nicely for much of the time across all areas of the UK.

There are indications that somewhat colder conditions will establish through the middle of the month, while remaining unsettled with low pressure having the main influence, some wintry precipitation is increasingly likely.

As winds fall lighter for a time, frost and fog will become a problem. Low pressure is anticipated to be the controlling influence, wintry showers may be expected almost anywhere from time to time before dying away as a weak area of high pressure takes centre stage.

Through the third week, low pressure approaches from the west with a strengthening south-easterly flow across all areas, the threat of a wintry mixture of precipitation crossing the UK as a westerly change brings Atlantic air through to showers and brighter conditions.

Pressure rises at the very end of winter, an anticyclone crossing the UK, winds falling light for a time, before a southerly drift establishes over all areas, becoming less cold thereafter.

*March*

The first month of spring begins with high pressure looking likely to be in control and a fine and dry, mild start, a southerly drift covering much of the UK. This scenario is expected to continue although temperatures falling back with overnight frost with some rain affecting western Britain as low pressure approaches from the west.

The Atlantic will be attempting to push into western Britain, with its associated rain, buts this eastward progress may be erratic and undetermined as high pressure to the east may remain as a block?

A southerly flow may be strengthening as this battle takes place, although by mid-March the Atlantic will have taken control, rain pushing through on a westerly with strong winds and rather unsettled conditions for all areas.

The latter stages of March sees, higher pressure to the east or southeast over the near Continent, low pressure mainly affecting the northwest of the UK, where it'll be unsettled, southern and eastern Britain drier at times with any rain patchy and weak, mainly mild everywhere.

As the month draws to a close, high pressure takes control, conditions settle and spring may have arrived with temperatures lifting across the UK.

Captain Bob

http://www.weatheron...ea&DAY=20130106

Edited January 7, 2013 by Gavin.