Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[Coast]

NOW INDIAN SUMMER WILL LAST INTO OCTOBER

Seems so!

Sunshine could last until the end of the month

The sun has come out - just in time for the kids to go back to school - and forecasters believe that the good weather could stick around until the end of September. The Express reports that high pressure is drawing warm air up from the south, and the Met Office forecasts that the whole of the UK can look forward to a warm, dry week with the highest temperatures in the south.

Although the Met Office warns that the nights may feel rather chilly, the outlook for England and Wales is "fine with plenty of sunshine". For the rest of the month, we can expect some misty autumnal mornings, but once that clears we can look forward to dry weather and warm, sunny spells. Today, temperatures are expected to reach up to 25C in the south, and it will also be dry and sunny in the north.

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, told The Express: "This is likely to hold out for next two weeks and even beyond." It's a shame that we couldn't have had some sunshine in August, but better late than never!

http://travel.aol.co.uk/2012/09/04/temperatures-soar-good-weather-throughout-september/

[Gibby]

Slight exaggerations from the media, just for a change of course.

[Essan]

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said Britain can look forward to non-stop sunshine and unbroken blue skies.

http://www.express.c...st-into-October

Well if nothing guaranteed wind and rain by the weekend, that did

[TonyH]

Plus it cannot be an Indian summer in September anyway!

[AderynCoch]

I see Jonathan Powell is back under a new guise.

[Methuselah]

I see Jonathan Powell is back under a new guise.

Clearly a guy who loves the sound of his own voice, is that one!

[joko]

I found this,it is a weekly RADIO SHOW,,i dont know whether its been posted before but hopefully some of you may find this interesting/useful

Wise Guys of Weather

Weekly discussion of weather and its effect on our world and society with Joe bustardi and Joe D'Aleo. http://www.blogtalkr...seguysofweather

ps- When i posted this the system would not let me post Joe Bustardi's proper second name,which is really illigitamate

Edited September 6, 2012 by joko

[Lake District Blizzard]

Joe laminate floori, works for me

Edit - unusual substitute for the word...

Edited September 6, 2012 by rjd1000

[Coast]

New series coming up from Sky Atlantic that has a twist to it that may make it more popular then normal with people here:

The British: how insularity and the weather shaped our national identity

"The British rightly stresses, too, the importance of our weather in making this tiny island so instrumental in world history. In particular, it stresses the crucial role of the Gulf Stream – which gives us such an odd, beneficial combination of wetness and warmth, despite our northerly latitude. Britain could never have become the fertile, prosperous country it is without the temperate effects of the Gulf Stream. Or so heavily populated – Britain is the 17th most overcrowded country in the world; taken alone, England is the sixth most overcrowded.

London is as far north as Calgary. Calgary hosted the Winter Olympics in 1988; we’ve just triumphantly pulled off the summer ones. London could not have become the world’s capital city if it had been frozen into isolation, as it would have been without the Gulf Stream. Without our strange weather, we wouldn’t have become such a strange lot either. Only in Britain could you have the incident that made Quentin Crisp leave London for New York."

http://www.telegraph...-identity.html#

The British starts on Sky Atlantic on Thursday 6 September at 9.00pm

[Summer Sun]

A tad ott prehaps

90F HEATWAVE THIS WEEKEND

A LATE summer heatwave is set to send temperatures soaring to 90F (32C), forecasters said last night.

Swathes of the country will enjoy a “barbecue weekend†of glorious sunshine and blue skies.

And the longest warm spell of the summer is likely to last until October.

Temperatures are set to rocket from today, with widespread highs in the 80s across southern England this weekend.

There is a chance the mercury could even nudge 90F in parts of the country on Sunday as a blast of “tropical†air pushes humidity to 90 per cent.

The best of the weather will be in the South, while the North is expected to be cooler with the chance of rain.

As thousands flocked to beaches and parks to make the most of the long-awaited sunshine yesterday, Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said:

“It is going to be absolutely glorious from Saturday with temperatures peaking on Sunday.

“The South-east is going to enjoy a real scorcher, a proper barbecue weekend, and there is the chance of

even breaching the 90F mark.â€

Charlie Powell, of the Met Office, said:

“High pressure will keep it generally dry and fine over the next couple of days, especially in the South and South-east.

“Saturday we could see temperatures up into the 80s with plenty of sunshine and again dry and fine on Sunday, although turning more unsettled after that.â€

The rest of the month will be warmer and sunnier than average, though the heatwave will end in a brief chilly spell.

The beginning of next week is likely to see heavy showers across much of the UK with temperatures dropping

into the 60s before the better weather returns.

Leon Brown, meteorologist at The Weather Channel, said hurricanes Leslie and Michael would influence our weather.

“This tropical activity will help pump warmth up to the north-east Atlantic so, after a distinct drop in temperatures early next week, it should become warmer again later.â€

He said the hot weather could last until October.

The warm spell is in stark contrast to the rest of the summer, which was the wettest for a century.

It sparked a surge in sales of comfort food, including fish and chips, stews and soups, according to supermarket

Tesco.

It also reported an increase in sales of outdoor heaters, Wellington boots and umbrellas.

The washout summer has also damaged the pea harvest, say farmers, with yields down by almost 50 per cent.

http://www.express.c...ve-this-weekend

BUNK OFF TODAY FOR LAST OF THE SUMMER

RECORD numbers of Brits are ­expected to dodge work today to soak up the last of summer.

Temperatures are predicted to reach a ­sizzling 28C (82.4F) in the south by Sunday.

Hotels in southern resorts have seen a late surge of weekend bookings – many from ­northerners prepared to travel for a tan.

Travelodge are booked up at many of their seaside hotels.

Spokesman Shakila Ahmed said: “I think a lot of bosses will notice a sudden drop in staff on Friday.

‘‘A lot of bookings have come from people in the north looking to enjoy the southerly sun.â€

Temperatures will peak in the south on ­Sunday. Elsewhere in Britain it will be warm but cloudy and showers are expected.

Forecasters at The Weather Centre have told Brits starved of the sun during a miserable summer to relish the rays while they can.

Spokesman Leon Brown said indications are there will be a dramatic drop in temperatures early next week.

He added: ‘‘It should become warmer again later, but probably windy over the north by Thursday and Friday.â€

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/271027/Bunk-off-today-for-last-of-the-summer/

[Coast]

Last weekend of summer? Temperatures to hit 82f... but then it's back to work with showers and colder weather from Monday

• Highs in Britain on Saturday will be 27c (81f) and 28c (82f) on Sunday
• But temperatures will fall back to normal September levels by Monday
• London and southern parts expected to enjoy best weather this weekend

If you were hoping for a sun-kissed last weekend before heading back to work, then you’re in luck. Britain will be basking in temperatures of up to 27c (81f) on Saturday and 28c (82f) on Sunday - in what is expected to be the last weekend of a summer which some would say has never even arrived. Conditions will turn almost immediately on Monday when many Britons return to the office, as temperatures plunge back to the high teens, accompanied by showers and breezes.

This weekend will follow a warm and dry week for most parts, which will continue today with sunny periods lasting longest across East Anglia, southern parts of the Midlands and southern counties. Met Office forecaster Steven Keates said the warm weekend is ‘a bit of a bonus for mid-September’. He told MailOnline: ‘It’s well above average for this time of year. The best of the weather this weekend is going to be in the southern half of the UK on Saturday, but many eastern areas will also do OK.

‘Any rain will be probably confined to north-west Scotland, with temperatures quite widely in the twenties from the Aberdeenshire area all the way down to London.’ However the warm temperatures over the weekend will be accompanied by single-figure lows overnight in some areas, and a fast turnaround into more normal September weather by next week. Mr Keates added: ‘I think by Monday into Tuesday, we're back to what we're more used to in September - much cooler, showers and quite breezy - but in itself, nothing unusual.

‘There are no signs over the next few weeks of anything exceptionally warm developing again. We're back to a changeable situation, with temperatures in the high teens, maybe into the twenties. ‘By Monday there will be more persistent rain in north Scotland and next week it will be quite a lot more unsettled - something for everyone.’

The warm weather is expected to spread across all of Britain on Saturday, with the exception of north-west Scotland, but by Sunday it will be more confined to central and eastern parts. Mr Keates told MailOnline: ‘It could well feel a little more humid by Sunday and it does bring the risk of the odd shower in south-west England. At the moment most places will probably stay dry on Sunday.’

Tonight the weather is expected to stay generally cloudy across north-west England and western Scotland, with further patchy light rain expected. It will be predominantly dry across the rest of the UK with clear periods, although mist and fog will develop quite widely as the night progresses and it will feel chilly in southern areas.

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz25lvSOlqN

[Coast]

From Liam Dutton's blog for this weekend:

A summery September weekend for many

After the wettest summer in 100 years and also the second wettest on record, it seems as if the weather has had it in for us this year. We’ve gone from droughts to floods in a matter of months, with warmth and sunshine in short supply.

However, this week has been pretty pleasant for much of the UK, with high pressure sitting over us. Whilst the nights have been a bit chilly, the days have been filled with sunshine and temperatures in the low to mid 20s. So will the fine weather continue this weekend? Will we get the chance to dust off the barbecue? In a nutshell – yes, but as always, some places will fare better than others.

Saturday

Much of Scotland, Northern Ireland and north west England will start the weekend on a cloudy note with outbreaks of light rain and drizzle early on. However, through the morning, most places will brighten up with some sunshine – except western Scotland, where cloud and drizzle will linger all day.

The rest of England and all of Wales will see any locally dense patches of fog clear in the morning, to leave a fine and warm day with lots of sunshine. Temperatures will reach 19-26C across England and Wales, with 14-22C for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Sunday

Central and eastern parts of England will have another generally fine day, although the best of the sunshine will be during the morning and early part of the afternoon. By the end of the day, cloud will increase and the breeze pick up with the chance of a few showers. For the rest of the UK, there’ll be some early morning sunshine, but the cloud will quickly increase, with showers spreading in from the west by lunchtime – possibly heavy for Northern Ireland and western Scotland.

Temperatures will reach 23-28C across central and eastern parts of England, with 17-22C elsewhere.

Next week

The weather next week is going to be a challenge for us meteorological folk. Whilst the general trend is for the weather to turn more unsettled with brisk winds and outbreaks of rain, getting the detail right day by day will be tricky. This is because there are currently two hurricanes in the mid Atlantic ocean and computer models have trouble working out precisely where their remnants will end up going.

The remnants of hurricanes contain a lot of warmth, energy and moisture, which if picked up by the jet stream can form vigorous areas of low pressure that head towards us, bringing wet and windy weather. However, for this to happen, the remnants of the hurricane need to interact with the jet stream at the right time. The easiest way to imagine how this works is to think of a train journey which involves changing trains.

If each train runs on time as expected then you get the perfect outcome and you reach your destination as planned. But if one train runs late and you miss the connection, then things don’t work out how you originally thought. This may well be the case with our weather next week.

http://blogs.channel...er-weekend/2027

[Summer Sun]

BBC Weather for the week ahead

Turning colder

Rain at times

Stormy Later

Snow possible for the highest ground in Scotland on Tuesday

[Summer Sun]

80MPH GALES TO HIT BRITAIN

GALES of up to 80mph will batter Britain this week as a perfect storm threatens to sweep across the country.

Tropical storm Leslie will meet Hurricane Michael in the Atlantic in the next 48 hours and head north to sweep away our glorious Indian Summer.

Yesterday was the hottest September day in Britain for six years, peaking at 85F (29C), warmer than Mexico City and parts of Greece.

After the wettest summer for 100 years it was hoped we might at last enjoy a spell of fine weather.

But Met Office forecaster Dave Britton warned this week will be “all changeâ€.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/345092/80mph-gales-to-hit-Britain

Edited September 10, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Coast]

80MPH GALES TO HIT BRITAIN

Ruddy hell I saw that on the newspaper section of a shop earlier and laughed out loud, good old Daily Ex!

Strong in Scotland, but nothing you guys aren't used to!

[Chris K]

These stories sometimes make me feel quite angry at how misleading they can be. It's ridiculous and I feel sorry for people who unfortunately believe some of the trash the papers come out with. The past year or so really has seen them pasting a much higher number of garbage headlines like these.

5th Sept - "NOW INDIAN SUMMER WILL LAST INTO OCTOBER" - pure speculation not taking into account how the models chop and change

"Sunshine could last until the end of the month" - same as above

5 days later - Today - 80MPH GALES TO HIT BRITAIN - There's potential for some stormy winds for some Northern areas perhaps which still needs to be kept a close eye on, but this story made it sound like it was definitely going to crash into the whole of Britain head on.

I think it's wrong, but obviously whatever catches the public eye will make them money and I guess that's all they care about.......

I really do hate the Express especially - I can't take them seriously at all because quite frankly they write pure bin material in my opinion.

Edited September 10, 2012 by Chris K

[Gibby]

These stories sometimes make me feel quite angry at how misleading they can be. It's ridiculous and I feel sorry for people who unfortunately believe some of the trash the papers come out with. The past year or so really has seen them pasting a much higher number of garbage headlines like these.

5th Sept - "NOW INDIAN SUMMER WILL LAST INTO OCTOBER" - pure speculation not taking into account how the models chop and change

"Sunshine could last until the end of the month" - same as above

5 days later - Today - 80MPH GALES TO HIT BRITAIN - There's potential for some stormy winds for some Northern areas perhaps which still needs to be kept a close eye on, but this story made it sound like it was definitely going to crash into the whole of Britain head on.

I think it's wrong, but obviously whatever catches the public eye will make them money and I guess that's all they care about.......

I really do hate the Express especially - I can't take them seriously at all because quite frankly they write pure bin material in my opinion.

What annoys me is how people who buy these rubbish papers are so gullible to believe it..not once but time and time again.

[The watcher]

What annoys me is how people who buy these rubbish papers are so gullible to believe it..not once but time and time again.

Problem is, they don't have a choice. Although the papers over exaggerate and get facts wrong, it is better to be safe than sorry. The one time somebody doesn't take heed of a warning is the one time it takes to get injured. I'm not backing up the papers, as it is scaremongering of a sort, but sometimes I think it is what is needed to get people to prepare/act and save themself from an injury or fatality, weather is unpredictable, especially locally.

[Coast]

Weather 'cost rural Britain £1bn'

This year's dreadful weather has cost rural Britain at least £1bn, according to an investigation by BBC One's Countryfile.

Data from farmers, tourist businesses, insurers and events organisers show the wettest summer for 100 years has hit the countryside hard. Factors include reduced visitor numbers at countryside attractions such as stately homes and camp sites. Meanwhile, some country events were cancelled due to bad weather.

Gary Rogers runs Yorkshire Dales Ice Cream but his fleet of vans have spent too much time in the yard. His on-farm dairy has tubs stacking up in the freezer. When customers shiver profits melt away. "It's been a catastrophic year, worse than anybody's known," he said. "We're 50% down on last year and last year was worse than the one before." His personal experience is backed up by wider research. Information from tourist bodies like the National Trust, English Nature, Historic Scotland and the Camping and Caravanning Club shows visitor numbers down by up to 12%, cutting income by an estimated £478m.

A huge number of events have been cancelled too, from flagship gatherings like the Game Fair and the Great Yorkshire Show to smaller county shows and music festivals. The Country Land and Business Association has put the bill for this at £240m, though this has not been included in Countryfile's total due to the difficulty of judging the overlap with the overall drop in visitor numbers.

Gary's wife, Mandy Rogers, runs a beef herd alongside the dairy. She has seen costs rise as soggy fields mean damaged hooves and rising vet bills, but the biggest slice of new spending is buying in cattle feed as it is too wet to let her cows out to pasture. "This year was just a mud-bath really," she says. "When they should have been eating grass, they were getting through a bale of silage a day."

The biggest loss to farmers though is in poor yields as crops rotted and damp-loving diseases spread. The honey business was nearly cut in half. Even without the extra feed cost for livestock farmers, which is hard to calculate, the loss to agriculture approaches £600m. Whether it is rambling or rearing animals, the USP of rural Britain is the outdoor life and this summer that life has been hard to make pay. The bill may yet spread to shoppers as poor harvests push up food price

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-19521845

[Summer Sun]

Summer Heatwaves Could Kill 11,000 A Year

Summer heatwaves could kill 11,000 people a year in Britain by the 2080s, a new report has warned.

The Health Protection Agency says climate change is likely to raise average temperatures by between two and five degrees, with "significant looming health challenges" for the nation.

Heat-related deaths are expected to soar from their present level of 2,000 a year.

Dr Sotiris Vardoulakis of the HPA said rising temperatures are a direct threat to patients with lung and heart disease, but an increase in accidents and suicides during heatwaves will add to the death toll.

"Heat-related mortality will increase steeply," he said.

And there's a grim warning for hayfever sufferers that the high pollen counts seen this year over a prolonged period could become the norm.

In future, grass is expected to begin flowering far earlier in the year, releasing a more potent allergenic form of pollen.

And ragweed, a plant native to the United States, is likely to become established in southern Britain.

Professor Roy Kennedy of the National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit said the plant can shed millions of pollen grains and trigger hayfever or even asthma in people who have never suffered before.

"If you have got more powerful pollen and new allergens coming in from pollen like ragweed you are potentially going to end up with more people needing hospital admission," he told Sky News.

Warmer summers are also likely to allow disease carrying mosquitoes to breed in Britain, with malaria spreading as far north as Manchester.

HPA chairman Dr David Heymann said: "This report will provide all government departments with the information they need to properly prioritise areas for future work and protect the UK public from the significant looming health challenges that climate change presents."

http://news.sky.com/story/983419/summer-heatwaves-could-kill-11000-a-year

[Rainy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-19521845

Sums up the troubles in this area correctly also and I suspect most NW parts of the UK. . I've been reporting in similar vein in various threads on NetWeather for several weeks now.

The last line is a grim warning.

Unless we have a long warm and very dry autumn and a gentle winter, there will be real hardship. Paying the fuel and soaring food bills will be the big concern.

Local authority costs must surely have risen too. So much infrastructure has been hit by water damage, especially where repairs hadn't been done effectively to roads and buildings etc since the last 2 cold winters. Our local country lanes are in a bad state. Little better than rivers in places, with mud and debris everywhere. Huge cracks and potholes too.

Since starting to write this I've been out to the gauge and collected 34.2mm rain for the last 24 hrs.

So that will set things back for any land work for at least a couple of weeks, even if it stays dry. The fields have been completely overwhelmed with water everywhere up here this growing season, except on stony thin soils on sloping land.

[Summer Sun]

Has GP (Stewart Rampling) actually said this?

Snow on the way… but not till Christmas

A SNOWY sub-zero Christmas has been predicted for Ireland, as sun worshippers look 
forward to more sunshine this weekend.

Temperatures are set to reach 20C today, but Netweather forecaster Stewart Rampling has said snow, ice and sub-zero 
temperatures are all on the way this December.

He forecasted chilly spells in October due to high pressure drawing cold polar air and cutting off warm westerly winds – the pattern which can cause winter freezes.

Netweather also predicts October’s rainfall will be down by close to 30 per cent.

However, November will be up to 20 per cent wetter for most of the country.

“November’s rainfall is forecast to be above average for the south,†said Rampling.

Meanwhile, suggestions that parts of the country would be hit by 100kph winds today were rejected by weather experts Met Eireann.

Met Eireann meteorologist John Eagleton said yesterday: “There is no indication at the moment of gale force winds tomorrow.â€

The top Irish forecaster also said people can look forward sunshine and dry weather this Saturday, with temperatures in the high teens.

http://thestar.ie/star/snow-on-the-way-but-not-till-christmas/

[syed2878]

man i got to say that paper prints out a lode of boleks,

[The watcher]

I thought it was great to see the SSW events getting a mention from Meto in this news piece that says about their new models being able to forecast cold spells months ahead.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19584302

"UK weather forecasters can predict cold winter weather a season ahead with more confidence, according to analysis of a new computer model.

Writing in Environmental Research Letters, scientists say the model is better at simulating phenomena known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs).

These happen when the usual westerly winds at 10-50km altitude break down, causing cold weather on the surface.

Developers at the Met Office say it is an incremental advance for forecasts.

Seasonal forecasting is still in its relative infancy, but the report's authors from the Met Office say that improving their ability to represent SSWs is a help.

When the stratospheric westerlies break down, it generates a signal that typically burrows down to the Earth's surface over following weeks.

This hampers surface westerlies that bring mild air to northern Europe from the Atlantic and allows Europe to get blocked in a cold state.

'High-top' modelling

The model, known as GloSea4, simulates winds, humidity and temperatures from the Earth's surface to 80km (50 miles) high - beyond the stratosphere. Data points on the old low-top model were capped at 50km.

Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said: "SSWs happen every couple of winters and about 70% are associated with cold air over Europe.

"Raising the lid of the model has been an improvement in our ability to simulate them," he told BBC News.

Dr Scaife added that SSWs were still poorly understood but were linked to sudden increases in temperature of up to 50C (90F) over a few days in the stratosphere over the Arctic. The temperature changes cause winds to reverse their normal direction.

The high-top model was not available to the Met Office before the bitter winter of 2009/10, and they could not forecast sufficiently far ahead the arrival of the cold that resulted in the UK grinding to an unprepared halt in the snow and ice.

Retrospectively, using the high-top model with atmospheric data available from autumn 2009, the Met Office said that they could have seen the cold coming farther ahead if they had been able to use the new model.

Lead author Dr David Fereday said: "This is an advance for us because it means that in certain situations we can give better estimate of risk for government planning."

The high-top model was devised in time for the winter of 2010-2011.

Using its data, the Met Office forecast in autumn 2010 that there was a 40% chance of a cold start to the winter, with a 30% chance of a mild start, and a 30% chance of an average start.

The summary of the advice to government said: "There is an increased risk for a cold and wintry start to the winter season."

The probability of cold increased to 45% as November started.

And the heavens indeed despatched the UK a brutal blast of cold, plunging Wales into its lowest-ever recorded November temperature of −17.3C (0.9F) in Llysdinam.

No 'silver bullet'

This was clearly an advance in forecasting from the previous year. But it still was not sufficiently robust for the authorities.

Forecasting a 40% chance of a cold winter still meant a 60% chance of a mild or average start to winter.

An unverified blog at the time quoted a civil servant commenting: "The Met Office seasonal outlook for the period November to January is showing no clear signals for the winter."

The Met Office no longer publicly publishes a seasonal forecast for winter but their annual three-month rolling forecast for December to February will go to policymakers in November.

Met Office spokesman Dave Britton said: "We don't want to over-egg GloSea4 high-top. It's moving us one piece forward in the very complicated jigsaw behind the weather.

"It's not a silver bullet - for instance SSWs are not responsible for every episode of cold weather that we get - but it is an advance," he told BBC News.

Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at the US-based Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), observed:" The research is potentially very important. Winter forecasting remains a difficult challenge and much work is needed to improve our forecast models.

"The Met Office have shown great creativity in exploring gaps in our knowledge and deficiencies in the models. But frankly, the bar for seasonal forecasting is set pretty low so any advance is very welcome."

[knocker]

Lift-off for Europe's Metop weather satellite

A European satellite that will acquire data critical for weather forecasters has launched from Baikonur, Kazakhstan.

A Soyuz rocket carried the four-tonne Metop-B spacecraft aloft for a flight that was expected to last just over the hour.

The spacecraft will ensure there is continuity of observations following Metop-A, which was launched in 2006.

The computer models that provide our daily forecasts have come to rely heavily on this satellite's data.

Metop-A's information now makes the single largest contribution to the accuracy of the one-day look-ahead.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19619779