Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[La Bise]

I just need to read one word in Madden's statement above to know how seriously I can take him...

[shedhead]

Yep, bless dear old BWS, after spending 90 days knocking other forecasts and accusing them of just trying to get in the press. Still I'm sure one of our regular campaigners against long range forecasters will start a thread to keep this in the public eye...

Meeeeaow...

[damianslaw]

I note More4 are showing a couple of programmes tonight about the weather - I think these are repeats of other programmes. Titles the year britain froze 2010 and snowstorm britain's big freeze - I think this is about the feb 09 snow.

I'll probably manage about 5 minutes of the first one, but from memory the second one was terrible so will refrain.

Our local ITV news 'lookaround' showed some footage from news from Jan and Feb this year saying it started off as dec 10 ended with a big freeze,no it didn't.. they also said 'whilst britain was freezing' - mmm not it wasn't. Another poor piece of broadcasting - the media has gone down the pan this year in my book, rarely do I pick up a newspaper nowadays, the only news I watch is BBC, and our local bbc forecasts are rubbish.

[Summer Sun]

NEW YEAR HOTS UP FOR A 14C ‘HEATWAVE‘

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/292373/New-Year-hots-up-for-a-14C-heatwave-

BRITAIN'S BALMY!

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/227468/Britain-s-balmy-/

[leicsnow]

NEW YEAR HOTS UP FOR A 14C ‘HEATWAVE‘

http://www.express.c...a-14C-heatwave-

BRITAIN'S BALMY!

http://www.dailystar...itain-s-balmy-/

They are publishing false information when they say "Last year Britain was in the grip of sub-zero temperatures that brought many parts of the country to a standstill." The severe cold and snow ended around the 27th December last year! Edited December 29, 2011 by Tellow

[Wivenswold]

As much as it pains me to sound like I'm defending that rag, but at least they are quoting proper weather forecasters this time. Though 'heatwave' is a little OTT. I seem to recall a similar 'heatwave' early Jan 1998. I was in Brighton sitting on the beach in a T-shirt. It snowed around Easter time if my memory serves me well.

[AderynCoch]

Watching both the regional and national forecasters on the BBC yesterday and they were both acting as though predicted maxima of "only" 7-8C were notably cold. This is the sort of nonsense we had to put up with during a period of mild winters, and it looked as though we were finally growing out of it after the past couple of winters - I recall forecasts being made during the cold of last December which didn't act like it was the end of the world.

Back to square one by the looks of things.

[damianslaw]

Heatwave - what utter rubbish, temps for about 24 hours will be appreciably above average in the south, but thats it, and certainly no record breaking temperatures. I gave up on the media when it comes to reporting weather stories years and years ago - everyone else should do the same.

[syed2878]

all i'm gona say is that if the daily express is forecasting a heatwave gavin then i think all of us should get ready for a big freze come mid to late jan. Lol.

[weathe20]

I remember the actual heat wave begining of November last year......then what happend.

[Summer Sun]

BRITAIN GOES BALMY FOR THE NEW YEAR

http://www.express.c...or-the-New-Year

UK HOTTER THAN MOROCCO

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/227741/UK-hotter-than-Morocco/

Edited December 31, 2011 by Gavin D

[damianslaw]

Oh dear I heard someone today saying we are in for a heatwave and I don't think they were jesting - bit of a worry how some people swear by the media still..

[Crepuscular Ray]

In what way is it unusual for Madrid to be colder than parts of the UK at this time of year?

[Terminal Moraine]

BRITAIN GOES BALMY FOR THE NEW YEAR

http://www.express.c...or-the-New-Year

UK HOTTER THAN MOROCCO

http://www.dailystar...r-than-Morocco/

The media love to pick a location which, in the public perception, is hot/cold and proclaim that Britain is even hotter/colder on one or two particular days without any qualifying statement as to the actual climate of the place in question.

It's quite meaningless to pick a day when the temperature reaches 13c in January somewhere in Britain and compare it to what could be quite a cold day in some Mediterranean spot.

A more worthy headline would be if the mean temperature in July in England exceeded that at Athens over the same period, or if the temperature in central England was lower than that in the Lena basin in January.

Unfortunately the general public latch onto these meaningless headlines and repeat them ad nauseum, some even have the temerity to argue the point when I point out the errors, and so it will always be I suppose.

[greybing]

The media love to pick a location which, in the public perception, is hot/cold and proclaim that Britain is even hotter/colder on one or two particular days without any qualifying statement as to the actual climate of the place in question.

It's quite meaningless to pick a day when the temperature reaches 13c in January somewhere in Britain and compare it to what could be quite a cold day in some Mediterranean spot.

A more worthy headline would be if the mean temperature in July in England exceeded that at Athens over the same period, or if the temperature in central England was lower than that in the Lena basin in January.

Unfortunately the general public latch onto these meaningless headlines and repeat them ad nauseum, some even have the temerity to argue the point when I point out the errors, and so it will always be I suppose.

yep ,so it will always be.

[keithlucky]

Record amount of snow in Iceland http://www.icenews.is .Click on weather top right hand corner.

Edited January 1, 2012 by keithlucky

[Weather-history]

BRITAIN GOES BALMY FOR THE NEW YEAR

http://www.express.c...or-the-New-Year

UK HOTTER THAN MOROCCO

http://www.dailystar...r-than-Morocco/

Amazing how the Express have completely forgotten about the Arctic blizzards and -20C temperatures that was suppose to have happen over the last 3 or 4 weeks.

The media love to pick a location which, in the public perception, is hot/cold and proclaim that Britain is even hotter/colder on one or two particular days without any qualifying statement as to the actual climate of the place in question.

It's quite meaningless to pick a day when the temperature reaches 13c in January somewhere in Britain and compare it to what could be quite a cold day in some Mediterranean spot.

A more worthy headline would be if the mean temperature in July in England exceeded that at Athens over the same period, or if the temperature in central England was lower than that in the Lena basin in January.

Unfortunately the general public latch onto these meaningless headlines and repeat them ad nauseum, some even have the temerity to argue the point when I point out the errors, and so it will always be I suppose.

I agree, it is like when say Braemar records -20C and we get the UK was colder than Sweden, Finland etc... no, Braemar recorded a lower temperature than any station in the said countries not the UK. Braemar is not representative of 90% of the UK!

[Summer Sun]

STORM TO END BALMY START TO THE NEW YEAR

http://www.express.c...to-the-New-Year

[La Bise]

Monbiot states what should have been obvious to anyone with a bity of savy about the Mail and Express obsession with "forecasters" like Exacta or PWS...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jan/02/sleighbell-winter-climate-change-denial

[Summer Sun]

The 100mph killer wind

Trees fall, lorries overturn and ports close

TWO people were killed yesterday as Britain was battered by brutal 100mph winds. The ferocious storm overturned lorries, closed major ports and blew the roofs off buildings. More than 100,000 families were left without power while torrential rain brought warnings of severe flooding.

A 50-year-old man was killed after his van was crushed by a fallen oak tree in Tunbridge Wells, KENT. Another man died after a tanker was swamped by a wave in the Channel. He was among three crew airlifted from the vessel by Falmouth coastguards in CORNWALL

The highest wind yesterday was 106MPH at Great Dun Fell in CUMBRIA. At nearby High Cup Nick, a waterfall was blown UP into the air. The South West was also badly hit with 93mph winds at Portland Bill, DORSET. There were 27 flood alerts in the area.

Nine children and a pregnant woman were taken to hospital after a van hit a tree in Darlington, COUNTY DURHAM. None of the group was seriously hurt.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4037242/Two-die-as-Britain-is-lashed-by-storm.html

TWO DEAD IN KILLER STORMS

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/228375/Two-dead-in-killer-storms/

TWO DIE AS BRITAIN IS SMASHED BY STORMS

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/293445/Two-die-as-Britain-is-smashed-by-storms

[Interested]

Makes for an interesting read - apologies if it has already been picked up on this site

http://www.monbiot.com/2012/01/02/polar-opposites/

[Coast]

Weatherwatch: The Föhn effect and winter warmth in Wales

Fancy basking in temperatures of 17C or so in January?

Winter breaks to the Canary Isles are one way of achieving this, but relocating to Britain's "hot-spots" could also give you a few more balmy winter days. Eight times in the last century the mercury has climbed above 17C in January somewhere in the UK. All eight of those times the location has been along the north Welsh coast, with the village of Aber (approximately half way between Bangor and Llandudno) taking the crown twice.

The reason for this pocket of warmth in north Wales is because of the "Föhn effect". Britain's warmest winter winds usually blow from the south or south-west. When they reach north Wales the winds are forced up over the Cambrian mountains (where they deposit their moisture). Air descending the other side is warmed by compression.

The north Welsh coast is not the only spot to enjoy this winter warming effect: the north Devon coast (in the lee of Exmoor), the North Yorkshire coast (in the lee of the North Yorkshire Moors), the Carlisle and Eden Valley (downwind of the Cumbrian fells), and the southern shore of the Moray Firth (in the lee of the Grampian massif) benefit from the Föhn effect occasionally too.

A particularly good year for these hot spot locations was 1971, with January temperatures in the high teens, while London languished at just 12C. Who needs Tenerife, when we have Prestatyn, Ilfracombe or Whitby instead?

http://www.guardian....m?newsfeed=true

[Summer Sun]

NEW WAVE OF STORMS FEARED AS CLEAN-UP OPERATION STARTS

http://www.express.c...peration-starts

WAYNE ROONEY AND RIO FERDINAND'S MATCH TRIP NIGHTMARE

http://www.dailystar...rip-nightmare-/

Trees down, roads closed and rail chaos as storms rage across Britain with winds reaching 111mph

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1iaE4ngB7

More storm misery as 87mph winds hit UK

http://www.mirror.co.../#ixzz1iaEITFG5

Car tramp-led

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4039597/Car-tramp-led.html

[Jason T]

THEN THERE IS THE CLOSING CHAPTER FROM MR MADDEN. Hmmmmm...?

5th January 2012

http://www.guardian....e-change-denial

The article above immediately starts out in defence of the Met Office and the hostility they received for their incorrect 2009 summer forecast.

The coming summer is 'odds on for a barbecue summer'

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/summer2009

The author then chooses to cleverly emphasise on quotes and newspaper headlines to make people question my credibility. However in a way I can understand this in regards to the newspaper headlines, and this is when I should be 100% clear about what actually happened with all them newspapers. The truth is that I did not write or have any influence on any of those newspaper headlines, I did not even speak to one newspaper editor or journalist, the quotes was simply taken from 'updates' on Exacta Weather, yet they appeared in almost every British national newspaper. Seem strange to anyone else? Imagine how I felt. Now at first I was overwhelmed and ecstatic at the national coverage and thought people would recite the quotations from within the article from myself and not the headlines that was used to sell the newspapers. So as you can see, I did not seek no publicity whatsoever as the author suggests. I also never made any financial gains from any of those newspaper headlines, although I am pretty certain that the newspapers did.

So let's review one of those articles from the Daily Mail on the 20th September 2011 (Britain to be hit by SNOW in October... Forecasters warn early winter is on way)

http://www.dailymail...ly-October.html

It begins with

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said: ‘I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK.

OK, so this was part of my autumn update and once again this was taken from the Exacta Weather website, I did not speak to any newspaper editor or journalist. We did also see some moderate to heavy snowfalls in CERTAIN parts of the UK during October and November, and this is why included this within my autumn update.

The Daily Mail article then continues with

'I expect December, January and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfall occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

In all fairness and as an honest forecaster, my forecast has been well off the mark to date, and there has since been some revisions to my forecast for the remainder of winter and November. This is a little unusual for myself, as this is the first time I have ever had to seriously amend any of my forecasts. In my 8th November 2011 update I promptly explained that there had been a delay in some of these pattern changes, and although the latter part of November and into early December turned out roughly as expected, December as a whole was inaccurate.

The Daily Mail article then continues with

‘Huge swirly low-pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air.’ He added that Scotland and the North would face the worst weather, including possible ‘blizzard-like conditions’.

Now although we have seen frequent low pressure systems, we have not seen the teleconnections enter a dominantly negative phase, as I expected. The NAO and AO were both dominantly negative during the summer months of 2011, and as I have stated before, this had an important bearing on my winter forecast. We have however seen the 'potentially damaging gale force winds' which I forecast before any other forecaster or weather organisation, and I firmly believe that this is due to some major 'long term' changes, in the major natural factors that I consider within my forecasts, and how they influence the 'long term' pattern of storm tracks.

I also stated in the same update in which all the newspapers extracted them quotes from that “The UK can expect a similar theme to continue as we head into autumn, with a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and winterâ€yet not one of them decided to use this. Had I of had any influence on them newspaper articles, then I can guarantee that I would have included this part of my forecast too.

The Daily Mail article then continues with a number of incorrect quotes from other forecasters, including the Met Office, and not one of them mentions anything about strong winds in winter:

Netweather forecaster Paul Michaelwaite has also predicted ‘widespread’snowfall as early as November. He told the Daily Express: ‘Over the past four years November snow has not been rare at all, and with temperatures below the average there is the chance of some widespread falls.’

Meanwhile, The Met Office has said that below average temperatures in October mean there is a chance of upcoming overnight frosts, which would be seen predominantly in the Midlands and south-east.

And Weather Services International agreed that October, November and December would be hit with temperatures approximately two degrees lower than the average.WSI’s chief meteorologist, Dr Todd Crawford, told the Express: ‘We currently expect the coldest temperatures to be confined to western Europe.’

OK, so let's head back to the recent Guardian article. Now I don't mind taking some flak for getting a forecast incorrect, in fact I would probably say this is all part and parcel of weather forecasting. I however won't be made a scapegoat for the ineptness of the professional forecasters. I will also not be used as some pawn in a political and agenda driven article from a loyal warmist, because I dare to question the authors beliefs on man-made climate change. There is a lot that the author also conveniently fails to mention in the article. For example, he chooses to emphasise only on the 2009 BBQ summer that the Met Office forecast incorrectly, yet conveniently forgets to mention that this was a long line of recent blunders from them and their supercomputers in terms of long range forecasting. He also conveniently forgets to mention what I forecast when these mistakes was made.

Let's take last winter for example when the £33 million supercomputer foresaw a mild winter, yet we experienced the coldest December in 100 years with widespread heavy snowfall as forecast by myself. I even contacted the professionals and told them to issue a severe weather warning, yet no forthcoming warning was issued. Check out my previous forecasts and the tweet on my twitter page from the 31st August 2010 here.

http://www.telegraph...-last-year.html

http://www.telegraph...-forecasts.html

Then there is the winter of 2009/10 when the professionals once again foresaw a mild winter, yet we experienced widespread heavy snowfall throughout December, January, and February. The UK winter mean temperature came in at -2.0C below-average and once again as forecast by myself. I wonder why the author chose not to mention any of this?

http://www.telegraph...Met-Office.html

Another example that he uses to discredit another forecaster within the article is an incorrect 2011 summer forecast, yet he fails to mention that the professionals issued nothing, or that I forecast this period with 100% accuracy and before any other forecaster.

As it stands I did actually respond to the author of the article before it was submitted online, for which I have still not received a response either. Now this is actually starting to get a bit personal, but I was back home for the festive period, and although I made time for the usual updates and weather warnings, it was impossible to work my way through the 700+ emails that I had received in this time period until recently. I may well be an undergraduate with a computer, but my computer or my methods never cost £33 million of the tax-payers money, and it has proved far more accurate too.

In regards to the comment about an independent audit from the author of the article, well this is starting to get serious when a national newspaper is asking me questions like this. Anyone is free to view any of my past forecasts and pass their own judgement on what I have forecast, when the professionals and computer models have been consistently wrong. Please note that none of my posts are ever deleted and remain intact on my blog and youtube channel. I really can't help it, if I have only had positives to highlight upon in my lifespan as an amateur forecaster, and even before the recent article was published, I did actually state in an update on Christmas Day, that my recent forecast errors would also be highlighted on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. The fact that my forecast has turned out wrong to date, proves to me that my methods of analysis are not foolproof, and the long term aim is to refine my methods to become even more accurate in the future. In fact, an article from early 2010 and from the same author titled Britain's cold snap does not prove climate science wrongalso states that:

“This is called weather, believe it or not, it is not always predictable and it changes quite oftenâ€Hickman and Monbiot (2010)

http://www.guardian....P=ILCNETTXT3487

It is also a major relief to know that no-one has had to really suffer this winter so far, unlike last year when there was many unnecessary deaths, as many was unprepared for what happened. Surely it is better that we are over-prepared for harsher winters, especially as I firmly believe that they will become more commonplace in our near future.

Now the author of the article has made a lot of incorrect assumptions in regards to myself, and maybe he has made these same assumptions in regards to future climate change too. I am not dependant on false science as an income stream, and I don't have a warmist driven agenda, which I actually happened to believe myself at one stage in my life. I am simply telling the truth and will continue to do so, it is up to yourself as to whether you choose to follow or believe what I have to say. One thing is certain though, I certainly won't try and make your mind up for you, unlike others.

Certain people are trying to use one incorrect forecast of mine to justify their own mistakes, and after reading that recent article and all the confusion of the last few months, I am really starting to wonder how long it will be before the Met Office becomes privatised and I become a direct competitor. Why? Because I issue long range forecasts and they don't, and the plan will be to justify this once the transition has taken place.

How ironic and fitting too, a Guardian article below from 2009 before the Conservatives come to power titled “Conservatives may privatise Met Officeâ€.

http://www.guardian....vatives-defence

........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

1st January 2012

Wintry& colder feel to the start of the new year

The start of 2012 will see some wintry showers falling as snow across parts of northern Scotland during new years day. This wintry theme will continue as we head into Monday, with further wintry showers across Scotland, Northern Ireland, and northwestern parts of the UK. Some of these wintry showers will also fall as snow across higher and lower ground in these parts, leading to some accumulations of snow in places. There may even be the risk of some snow showers across higher ground in some areas further south. Tuesday will see yet another area of low pressure arrive, bringing with it some strong winds and wet weather across many parts of the UK. Some of these showers will initially remain wintry across Scotland and some northern regions of the UK during Tuesday, before a brief return to milder conditions across many parts of the UK.

I stated on the 2^ndSeptember 2011 that we could expect:

“a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and WINTER.â€

Ialso stated in my last update on the 25^th December 2011 that:

“January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.â€

“February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland.â€

This is currently still how I see things developing throughout January and into February at present. Although the worst of the strong winds, cold, and snow for January, is more likely to occur from around mid-month onwards. There will also be some interspersions of milder weather at times throughout January, and areas further South are the most likely to see the best of these conditions. I am currently expecting the mean Central England Temperature (CET) to come in at near or below-average for January. Any further updates will be posted accordingly.

Edited January 5, 2012 by silver line

[syed2878]

The only reason the met allways goes for warm is because the gov has some influence so they can bang their drum about globle warming most of wich is a lie. If any1 wants evidents email me and i will dropbox them to u. Sorry if i broke any of net weather's agreements when i signed upto to the forum.