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Paul Sherman

Chase 2011 - Day 38 Discussion

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Well its nearly the end of the first week of June so that must mean High Plains Chasing and it does not get any Higher than tomorrow with Eastern Montana and Western North Dakota under a Slight Risk for Supercells, Large Hail and 5% risk for Tornadoes, the next day looks pretty decent in Minnesota and Eastern North Dakota as well.

Will start the day in Rapid City (South Dakota) and pick a chase target in the morning our time (Afternoon Uk) seeing as we are 7 hours behind you guys now in MDT!

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Paul S

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Yep - as forecast by the recently decent GFS midrange model last week, it's all eyes north for a few days.

Far SE Montana might not be a bad target - the landscapes must be awesome too though I've never been that far north myself.

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It is amazing up there. Drove up through Eastern Wyoming today with lots of ooohs and aaahs from both cars, even the Black Mountains of SW South Dakota had them amazed, cant wait to paint some storms on those landscapes today and tomorrow.

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Monday east central Montana in a triangular target zone defined by Jordan, Havre and Glasgow. May be borderline severe in any case.

Tuesday looks more dramatic and between Dickinson-Williston (about halfway) and Bismarck ND.

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It is June and I LOVE the high plains - the senerary and lack of chaser hoards make for great chasing. I am currently in Billings, MT and expect storms to form first off the Mountains between Billings and Lewistown before moving East and becoming supercells.

One thing to watch Paul - there are a number of roads in MT cloased due to snow melt flooding - watch HW 212 if you are comming up from Rapid city- it is closed!

see:- http://www.mdt.mt.gov/travinfo/map/mtmap_frame.html

and :- http://www.mdt.mt.gov/travinfo/floods.shtml

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Thanks for that info Stu :drinks:

There are only about 5 or 6 roads around the eastern part of Montana so should be fun playing with the large hail - Mwahaha

Tomorrow looks great as well and then a day 3 for the area we drove through yesterday and the magical Goshen County in Wyoming.

As Stu says there are literally no chasers around at the moment which is surreal.

Paul S

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Thanks for that info Stu :drinks:

There are only about 5 or 6 roads around the eastern part of Montana so should be fun playing with the large hail - Mwahaha

Tomorrow looks great as well and then a day 3 for the area we drove through yesterday and the magical Goshen County in Wyoming.

As Stu says there are literally no chasers around at the moment which is surreal.

Paul S

Are we there yet? :diablo:

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If crossover is anything to go by then I'm sort of being drawn back into extreme NW SD for 23Z initiation.

The hodo for Buffalo looks great with almost 180deg turn from surface to 750mb. Moisture OK. If you go too far north of here and the cap looks too strong.

I might be tempted to hover just inside SD where the tri-state point of SD,WY and MT is. RUC trending this way IMO.

Faith, SD

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Really looking forward to today :D Heading up to Spearfish, SD for some lunch, then take a check on the models and go from there

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As Stu says there are literally no chasers around at the moment which is surreal.

Paul S

Sounds just like tour 1 :doh:

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We are in the perfect spot at the moment and see no reason to shift. Have fast road options from here (Spearfish, SD) in every direction and we're also sat under a CU field. Going to gas up and find a spot to sunbathe for an hour :D

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Heading north west towards Broadus, MT :) Another new state!

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Quite impressed by surface obs in far N SD ATM. Mid sixties dps and 80ts - nice!

Sticking with Faith/Buffalo but I see your Cu field on vis Smokes - is it looking agitated?

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It's not really doing much at the moment which is why we're shifting north west a bit to the stuff further west. Can always retrace our steps back if need be :)

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MD issued

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL SD / SERN ND / PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 062051Z - 062145Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL SD ENEWD THROUGH SERN ND AND INTO W-CNTRL MN FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE 22-01Z PERIOD. A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...CONDITIONAL UPON STORM INITIATION...WOULD INCLUDE PRIMARILY LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL. A WW WILL BECOME POSSIBLE IF/ONCE STORM DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE ARE APPARENT. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1003 MB LOW 30 MI SW MBG WITH THE PRIMARY FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MT/WY/SD BORDER ENEWD INVOF FAR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ELONGATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT IS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. ONE IMPEDIMENT ATTM IS THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE DEPICTION OF A RUC ANALYZED WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING NEWD FROM THE BLACK HILLS TOWARDS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH CONTINUED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS WITHIN AN ALREADY WEAKENED CAP. THE MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WLYS WILL SUPPORT RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP A MOIST/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PBL...WITH PERHAPS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO NEAR THE WIND SHIFT AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH/LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASE THIS EVENING. ..SMITH.. 06/06/2011 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45250123 45380164 45690192 45960187 47069677 46949610 46659579 46359586 45250123

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Area forecast discussion from Billings, MT

"PEOPLE ARE URGED TO NOT BECOME COMPLACENT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES OUT

THERE NOW. CONVECTION WILL FIRE QUICKLY AND INTENSELY WHEN IT DOES

LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ONLY INTENSIFY

THE LONGER IT HOLDS OFF..."

"TRACK OF SURFACE LOW THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATER

TONIGHT CERTAINLY PUTS THE CITY OF BILLINGS WITHIN THE AREA WHICH

WILL BE AT RISK FOR TORNADIC STORMS."

See http://kamala.cod.edu/mt/latest.fxus65.KBYZ.html

I am already in Billings waiting...

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Storm chasers in Montana, here's two things you may find interesting to know:

(1) The white crosses you may see beside highways are memorials to people killed in highway traffic accidents.

(2) The speed limits that seem way too low in small towns are revenue generating schemes that are usually backed up by police hiding somewhere along the road with radar. Take these speed limits very seriously because they will expect to be paid up on the spot if you're out of state.

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