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And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    28 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

    hmm.

     

    It is strange that oil companies continue to make decent profits from the North Sea yet some how the UK revenue has fallen to nothing. 

    Creative accounting to make independence unviable for sure.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    As a theory, could it not be that the cost of decommissioning wells etc is being offset against profit, so therefore the amount of tax being paid is lower?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    8 minutes ago, Paul said:

    As a theory, could it not be that the cost of decommissioning wells etc is being offset against profit, so therefore the amount of tax being paid is lower?

    Largely same level of decommissioning is going on in Norway; the two are the same basin producing for the same length of time. There's not really been any major increase here, only increased talk of it given the downturn.

    Oil/gas production in Scotland is on the rise. Some huge fields have come on stream. Laggan Tormore along is now online and will peak at nearly double Scotland's entire domestic needs alone. BP Clair is enourmous and it's coming online too; just the start of the greater Clair Ridge development.

    The bigger majors like TOTAL are saying they're break even for Scottish waters is $20 a barrel. It's only some of the smaller, very old fields that are struggling at $50. The main downturn has been in new developments, not existing production.

    The massive discrepancies in revenues between Norway and Scotland certainly says either something is very fishy about the numbers the treasury are reporting, or that the UK is totally inept at running the industry and Scotland needs independence tomorrow.

    Anyway, experts are now questioning the numbers, so we'll find out soon enough.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    You could argue that it's the lowering of tax, and additional tax-breaks which have allowed investment in the oil industry during the price downturn to start to increase production again. Which again would explain the low tax-take - decommissioning, investment + less tax being levied = less money through the door today, but perhaps you could say it's a policy which may be very beneficial down the line. Particularly if you're wanting to compare it against the opposite - ie, tax-staying at a higher level = less investment, and less production. 

    I'm no expert here, but I note that beyond the odd tweet and a letter to the FT, no experts appear to be claiming anything is going on. I'd assume the SNP would (rightly) be up in arms if they felt there was something untoward happening, or mismanagement of the oil industry?

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    You don't consider Prof Andrew Hughes Hallet any sort of expert when it comes to economics and the Scottish independence topic? I'd say he had reasonable qualifications to pass comment.

    He does say there might be simple explanations, but the accounts don't seem to conform to international standards.

    Certainly, I don't think anyone could argue that the Norwegians are far more astute at industry management / revenue collection than the British. The UK hasn't a penny to show of hundreds of billions in free money it did get. In terms of managing an economy, Britain is totally useless; oil is just another example.

    Anyway, if massive tax breaks are needed, then why does stepping across the line down the middle of the basin suddenly change the amount of tax breaks needed / revenues generated.

    It's the same oil from the same fields in many cases.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore
    1 minute ago, scottish skier said:

    You don't consider Prof Andrew Hughes Hallet an expert when it comes to economics and the Scottish independence topic?

    He does say there might be simple explanations, but the accounts don't seem to conform to international standards.

    I know nothing of him, so maybe that was worded incorrectly - I'm simply saying that you'd assume that if there was something at play here, the experts in the Scottish government, and elsewhere in the industry etc would be making rather more noise than there currently is. A letter to the FT (which as you say, suggests there are plenty of likely explanations for any discrepancy) and a few tweets don't indicate to me that this is the major story you perhaps think it is.

    Time will tell whether it goes from conspiracy theory to something else, but since I assume the Scots government had plenty of time to check over the numbers before releasing them, that they considered them all to be above board. 

    Quote

    The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) web area provides information on the annually published GERS report. GERS is compiled by statisticians and economists in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser of the Scottish Government. The Scottish Government's Chief Statistician takes responsibility for this publication.

    http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    10 minutes ago, Paul said:

    I know nothing of him, so maybe that was worded incorrectly - I'm simply saying that you'd assume that if there was something at play here, the experts in the Scottish government, and elsewhere in the industry etc would be making rather more noise than there currently is. A letter to the FT (which as you say, suggests there are plenty of likely explanations for any discrepancy) and a few tweets don't indicate to me that this is the major story you perhaps think it is.

    Time will tell whether it goes from conspiracy theory to something else, but since I assume the Scots government had plenty of time to check over the numbers before releasing them, that they considered them all to be above board. 

    http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS

    How would the Scottish government be able to check? They are not allowed access to the data; the Treasury has refused countless requests over the years for more detail.

    GERS is a chocolate teapot; all the data is from the UK treasury (so the Tories) and the ONS. It doesn't come from the Scottish government; they just compile what London chooses to give them.

    It is not in Westminsters interests to release detailed numbers on revenues generated in Scotland. You are an intelligent man so will understand this well enough. It's politics.

    And where did I say it was a major story. I just noted people were thinking it odd.

    I work in the industry and my colleagues all think its odd. Tax has not been slashed; UK is still one of the most highly taxed areas, and production is up.

    Anyway, if the story has something behind it, in time we'll find out. Unionists better hope it doesn't.

    Either way it highlights the importance of Scotland managing its own resources.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    I know you are no fan of the publication I used to work for but if I was still in the business, I would be pushing the editor for the chance to do a piece on it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore
    Just now, scottish skier said:

    How would the Scottish government be able to check? They are not allowed access to the data; the Treasury has refused countless requests over the years for more detail.

    GERS is a chocolate teapot; all the data is from the UK treasury (so the Tories) and the ONS. It doesn't come from the Scottish government; they just compile what London chooses to give them.

    And where did I say it was a major story. I just noted people were thinking it odd.

    I work in the industry and my colleagues all think its odd. Tax has not been slashed; UK is still one of the most highly taxed areas, and production is up.

    It's very difficult discussing anything with you SS as it's like you want to argue every finer point, jumping on the semantics and little details of the wording of things rather than just discussing the broader subject, so everything is off on a tangent, having to re-explain points that don't need re-explaining if they're taken in context of an entire post rather than picked out singly every step of the way. 

    You obviously think it's an issue, major or not. I'm simply saying that if the likes of the Scots government aren't suggesting anything is untoward, and that there's very little other noise from others in the industry, economists, and so on that maybe it's reasonable to assume at this stage, that there's nothing much (or in fact anything potentially) to be concerned about. If more experts pick up on it, and the SNP themselves comment (who aren't generally backward in coming forward if they think there's an issue), then my view may change.

    And re the argument that the Scots government can't check the data, I'd simply suggest that if the cheif statistician is happy to take responsibility for it, then there must be reasonable confidence in it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    7 minutes ago, Paul said:

    It's very difficult discussing anything with you SS as it's like you want to argue every finer point, jumping on the semantics and little details of the wording of things rather than just discussing the broader subject, so everything is off on a tangent, having to re-explain points that don't need re-explaining if they're taken in context of an entire post rather than picked out singly every step of the way. 

    You obviously think it's an issue, major or not. I'm simply saying that if the likes of the Scots government aren't suggesting anything is untoward, and that there's very little other noise from others in the industry, economists, and so on that maybe it's reasonable to assume at this stage, that there's nothing much (or in fact anything potentially) to be concerned about. If more experts pick up on it, and the SNP themselves comment (who aren't generally backward in coming forward if they think there's an issue), then my view may change.

    And re the argument that the Scots government can't check the data, I'd simply suggest that if the cheif statistician is happy to take responsibility for it, then there must be reasonable confidence in it.

    It's you that seem to have a bee in your bonnet about it.

    I just posted a 'hmm', i.e. this might be of interest. That was it. It was a follow up to a similar comment earlier, this time because Hughes Hallet - a big name in economics / Scotland - had picked up on it.

    I didn't say it was a major story, just pointed it out. And that was it, off you went again.

    Although I will add that it is very damming if UK accounting for Scotland does not come up to international standards as Hallet says, whether that is sloppiness or something untoward.

    I'm sure you will agree in the end that it is not in the interests of the Treasury in London for Scotland to have details of its revenues? This is only natural; England wants to keep control of Scottish revenues / Scotland.

    Anyway, I'm not going round in circles with you again. People can make their own minds up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    I've honestly got no bee in my bonnet, and haven't gone off at all. I simply made a couple of observations in terms of what I thought may explain this apparent discrepancy. I've not been rude, personal, or even remotely agressive with those views, I simply offered up an observation and have essentially been jumped on at every turn. 

    Honestly, is this a discussion forum, or some sort of personal fiefdom where the only posts that should be allowed are ones which are in agreement with you? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    As I said, people can make their own minds up.

    It there's no story, it will vanish. If there is, we'll here in time.

    Either way the fact we are even discussing this shows how important it is Holyrood gets full control of all Scotland's revenues.

    To not have a country's accounts even up to basic international standards is a scandal in itself, even if there's nothing untoward.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    This isn't good.

    Quote

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-impact-on-uk-economy-business-expansion-plans-2016-8

    BREXIT FALLOUT: Business expansion plans hit the weakest level in 3 years

    British business expansion plans are at their weakest in more than three years, according to a survey by the Confederation of British Industry.

    The CBI quarterly report, the first since the June vote to leave the European Union, also found that optimism in business and professional services fell at the fastest pace since November 2011.

    In consumer services, optimism dropped at its fastest since the financial crisis – February 2009.

     

    Quote

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-lending-idUKKCN1150R2

    Cooler lending, company doubts point to Brexit 'slow burn' for economy

    Britons' thirst for borrowing eased last month and services firms curbed plans for growth, according to figures that suggested the economy will suffer a slow burn, rather than a sharp hit, from the vote to leave the European Union.

    Bank of England lending data on Tuesday offered the first hint of vulnerability in consumer demand - a key engine of British economic growth - after strong high street sales yielded no sign of a Brexit-inspired immediate slowdown.

    Lending to consumers rose by 1.2 billion pounds in July, below all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists and the weakest increase since August 2015. The figure was down from 1.9 billion pounds in June.

    The sooner Scotland makes its intention to move to independence in the EU the better.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    In 2015, Norway produced twice as much oil out of the North Sea as the UK sector, yet generated 125 times the revenue. In part that will be down to  having a state oil company as a major player and perhaps as if not more importantly a long term stable regime to operate in - stark contrast to the chaotic management by HM Government with frequent changes for short term cash grabs.

    As for GERS, well the Scottish Government has two options basically - publish the questionable (for lots of reasons) figures from HM Treasury or stop publishing GERS. Of course that is why the publication was shifted from the Scotland Office to the Scottish Government, to create a trap where the SG couldn't stop publishing them even if they know they are total bunkum. That trap exists and works, because the MSM is staunchly unionist. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    So May this morning:

    We must be clear that we are going to make a success of it - that means no second referendum, no attempts to sort of stay in the EU by the back door. That we are actually going to deliver on it.

    Rather backs up "Brexit means Brexit" as appearing to rule out remaining in the EEA. Time is getting nearer to name the date for the IndyRef, it looks as if the UK Government has closed down any other option.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    37 minutes ago, skifreak said:

    So May this morning:

     

     

    Rather backs up "Brexit means Brexit" as appearing to rule out remaining in the EEA. Time is getting nearer to name the date for the IndyRef, it looks as if the UK Government has closed down any other option.

    There is absolutely zero chance that May will allow Scotland and Northern Ireland to somehow stay in the EU and the UK at the same time, we all know this. Also, May's rhetoric about ensuring the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish devolved administrations are kept involved the process is clearly another lie as I cannot see any devolved individuals sittign around the table at Chequers!

    Get on with it Nicola.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    There is absolutely zero chance that May will allow Scotland and Northern Ireland to somehow stay in the EU and the UK at the same time, we all know this. Also, May's rhetoric about ensuring the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish devolved administrations are kept involved the process is clearly another lie as I cannot see any devolved individuals sittign around the table at Chequers!

    Get on with it Nicola.

    Yep  however its not just May that wont allow it.  I doubt the Eu will accept Scotland NI etc while you are still part of the uk  So as you say  Come on Nicola   You might get independance by this time next year

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Once article 50 is triggered, formal negotiations between Scotland and the EU begin.

    Today's meeting was for the brexiting English cabinet. No need for Scotland to be present; it's not brexiting.

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  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
    1 hour ago, skifreak said:

    So May this morning

    Rather backs up "Brexit means Brexit" as appearing to rule out remaining in the EEA. Time is getting nearer to name the date for the IndyRef, it looks as if the UK Government has closed down any other option.

    As I said before and SS agreed with me, NS will only call a second referendum if she knows she can win it.

    I think the second referendum is a long way off yet (in my opinion) given the volatile political and economic climate.

    There's more mileage for the SNP to be had from the Brexit chaos even if the economic landscape is somewhat flaky (even ignoring GERS).

    NS might surprise me but she won't want to do a Dave. 

    Edited by kar999
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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Given a majority now back indy and that's only going to creep up simply due to demographics never mind the Brexit mess, scottish government can afford to be patient.

    After all, just 52% is undisputable scexit means scexit territory thanks to UK precedents. And we're kicking off with at least that.

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  • Location: Ashford, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Over 18C please!
  • Location: Ashford, Kent
    1 hour ago, scottish skier said:

     

    Today's meeting was for the brexiting English cabinet. No need for Scotland to be present; it's not brexiting.

    Today's meeting was for the UK cabinet. Scotland is still part of the UK at present.

    Are you sure you can get referendum sorted, and rejoin/stay in negotiations settled, before Brexit actually happens? Seems a tall order to me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 hours ago, kar999 said:

    As I said before and SS agreed with me, NS will only call a second referendum if she knows she can win it.

     

     

    I don't see how NS could not hold having another referendum it and when it become clear that Scotland cannot remain in the EU when the appropriate Article has been triggered.

    NS will need to throw the dice and see how they fall and Yes will be starting from a much healthier position than last time.

    A vast majority of Yes supporters will not stand idly by and see themselves removed from the EU without a fight.

    Edited by mountain shadow
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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    17 minutes ago, interested & confused said:

    Today's meeting was for the UK cabinet. Scotland is still part of the UK at present.

    Are you sure you can get referendum sorted, and rejoin/stay in negotiations settled, before Brexit actually happens? Seems a tall order to me.

    I could only see English politicians present. Maybe there were some from other UK nations that I missed.

    At least Scotland actually has an independence plan. Nobody has a clue what wengxit looks like. Hence the 'emergency' meeting today.

    Anyway, for the purposes of Brexit, there is no UK. Scotland will negotiate directly with the EU. Something similar with N. Ireland I imagine too.

    .

    Edited by scottish skier
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  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
    10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I don't see how NS could not hold having another referendum it and when it become clear that Scotland cannot remain in the EU when the appropriate Article has been triggered.

    NS will need to throw the dice and see how they fall and Yes will be starting from a much healthier position than last time.

    A vast majority of Yes supporters will not stand idly by and see themselves removed from the EU without a fight.

    I wasn't inferring that she wont call one. I think she will be very careful about picking her timing though.

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