Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Scottish Politics 2011-2017


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    In response to some posts, see my post a few days ago and keep in mind the GERS data is produced by ONS and HM Treasury. 

     .

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 30.9k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    • Scottish-Irish Skier

      8874

    • mountain shadow

      1528

    • skifreak

      1435

    • frogesque

      1306

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    3 hours ago, scottish skier said:

    Jokes aside, Donald Trump is a very influential figure on the Westminster parties. It goes way back; from mugs with 'Immigration' on them, to the 'immigrants go home' vans.

    Theresa May needs to keep those Trump voters on side; it's them that are currently giving the Tories their lead and forcing her to stick to Brexit means Brexit.

    It is the nature of the FPTP system. Smaller parties like Trump's just need to threaten to take away that majority by stealing votes to shape Westminster. It's why the latter is becoming so reactionary. UKIP don't need to win seats, only votes.

    Trump gave us Brexit, even though he never set foot in the commons. As I said before, in Britain, Trump won.

    When brexit goes belly up, it will be the immigrants and the jocks who get the blame. After all, we jocks are now less popular than Clinton with the brexiteers.

    Britain is entering a dark place. It is not just the economic damage we should fear. The fact my wife remains under threat of deportation by Trump's brownshirts is case in point.

    I agree with you, the question I have is:

    Why does the USA want to divide the EU?

    Were we as a block about to get to strong for them, or is it something else. Also I'm getting very annoyed at following them into all their international mistakes.

    Edited by alexisj9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
    2 hours ago, skifreak said:

    In response to some posts, see my post a few days ago and keep in mind the GERS data is produced by ONS and HM Treasury. 

     .

    There may holes in GERS data but there will be holes in the original Indy white paper now we are in a sub $50 oil world.

    If one of the key revenue stream drivers justifying Indy economically has been halved then the whole base case has to have been adversely affected. 

     

    Edited by kar999
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    2 hours ago, kar999 said:

    There may holes in GERS data but there will be holes in the original Indy white paper now we are in a sub $50 oil world.

    If one of the key revenue stream drivers justifying Indy economically has been halved then the whole base case has to have been adversely affected. 

     

    Erm, you seem to have no idea what you are talking about.

    The oil revenues went to almost nothing, but total revenues increased, completely eliminating the lost oil revenues. Scotland has the third highest GVA/GDP per capita in the UK without oil. Oil is a bonus.

    And most of the 'deficit' is paying England's debts. England has borrowed billions yet Scotland has run at a net surplus for decades. In GERS, Scotland is assigned a share of England's debt re-payments. Under indy, this vanishes.

    And nobody can justify the UK now economically due to brexit. You should understand this all too well; you appreciate what is coming.

    Hell, we're 20% poorer already, and we're still fully in the EU.

    Anyway GERS was designed by the Tories to make Scotland look bad. Everyone knows this. It's why it has never had any effect. It's only geeks like us that discuss it. Most people don't even know what a deficit is, never mind as a share of GDP. 

    So, when the English state broadcaster is telling them 'Your ruined LOL', they just end up saying 'Screw you, I'm backing indy'.

    The best way to save the UK is to demonstrate Scotland thriving economically within it. Saying the UK is ruining Scotland has the opposite effect. It's in a large part why a majority back indy now.

    And look what happened in the EU ref; people told England time and again the economic of brexit would be a disaster. How'd that work out?

    I cannot believe that unionists do not see they are destroying the union. It's madness.

    I fully support it though.

    Edited by scottish skier
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    British / BritScot press: You are too poor. We cannae dae it! We need the charity of the English.

    Scots: Screw you.

    It's a natural human response. If people at a party keep telling you that you are rubbish, laughing at you etc, you tell them where to go and leave.

    Soon, there will be no pro-UK press of any significance in Scotland. It's all its own fault.

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    And if Scotland is doing badly economically, that increases the Yes vote obviously.

    Scotland was genuinely on it's knees in 1997 after being destroyed by Thatcher / Major with oil revenues plundered.

    It voted 74% Yes for devolution and polls had a strong majority backing indy. It was only devolution that saved the UK. That's why it was offered; to stop Scots voting in the SNP and the UK ending.

    Telling Scotland it's doing crap as part of the UK when it's actually doing ok in the circumstances is utter madness if you want to save the UK.

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
    11 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

    Erm, you seem to have no idea what you are talking about.

    Oh well..... Better to be ignorant and happy. :)

    ... But even if you zero out the historic balance sheet the Indy economic case, as with any economy, will be all about income and expenditure. Even the First Minister acknowledges a defecit going forward.

    "Sturgeon denied that closing the gap would require spending cuts or tax rises. “What I say is growing revenue is the priority. Public spending in Scotland is higher than the rest of the UK for some very good and in many respects unavoidable reasons, such as its rurality. It costs more to deliver health services to island communities,” she said denied that closing the gap would require spending cuts or tax rises. 

     

    I didn't know you could get Rose Tinted spectacles in Indy Saltire style as well as the Brexit Union Jack ones.


    Anyway I've found a more interesting offer on eBay where a Mr J Corbyn of Islington is selling a Venezuelan Money Tree. He says it needs to use the whole of your pension pot to grow in and it should produce fruit if fed regularly with your life savings.

    Thank you. :hi:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    15 minutes ago, kar999 said:

    Oh well..... Better to be ignorant and happy. :)

    ... But even if you zero out the historic balance sheet the Indy economic case, as with any economy, will be all about income and expenditure. Even the First Minister acknowledges a defecit going forward.

    It's normal to run a deficit; how else do you create growth?

    You need to be a small country of 5 million in the North Sea with oil to run a huge surplus with a massive oil fund.

    If you are a 'province' instead of a country, things are much less rosy according to UK unionists.

    I've never said things will all be perfect with free unicorns; Scotland will need to balance the books just like everywhere else. If loads of little European countries without oil can do it, I imagine Scotland can. When people say otherwise, another few Yes supporters are created.

    I'm sure you can appreciate my point though; saying the UK has badly mismanaged the Scottish economy is not how you save the UK. Yet that is what unionists do, and gleefully, incredulously. It's why a majority now back indy and the UK probably has at most only a few years left.

    Scotland will be debt free on indy; a very good starting position. Combine that with the EU welcoming it with open arms and things look a lot better than 2014.

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland
    20 minutes ago, kar999 said:

    ... But even if you zero out the historic balance sheet the Indy economic case, as with any economy, will be all about income and expenditure. Even the First Minister acknowledges a defecit going forward.

     

    The points people have made above are not about historical fisical balances cancelling out todays,  rather that if Scotland had become independent or fully fiscally autonomous there wouldn't be a £15b deficit. The £15b 'deficit'  In GERS is reflective as SS showed in the graphics above of a transfer of wealth OUT of Scotland as the cost of being in the Union as currently constituted. Now there is historical data  that underlines that point, in that prior to the reconvening of the Scottish Parliament in 1999 Scotland was experiencing several decades long run of ongoing population decline.

    Over the course of the Union not only has Scotland's share of GB's population crashed in relative terms, the population of Highland Scotland today is barely half of what it was in 1707, when the Highlands and Central Lowlands were pretty equally balanced in population. 

    The most significant piece of information in yesterday's GERS is that the tax receipts increased despite the obliteration of oil receipts and ultimately with finite resource far more valuable than just for burning, the long term direction of price travel is one way.  

    What that shows is a good basic resilience and balance in the Scottish economy, unemployment is pretty much equal in Scotland and the UK as a whole at the moment, but throughout almost the whole period in the aftermath of the credit crunch, economic indicators were all far healthier in Scotland, unemployment was significantly lower, employment higher etc in part because Scotland has a more balanced economy than the UK as a whole.

    Edited by skifreak
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Oh and if we are going to talk about historical fiscal balances, then GERS wasn't entirely a new concept in 1992. Roll back a century and the actual Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland was published (not the current ONS andTreasury assumptions). That was discontinued in 1922 because it was deemed embarrassing to HM Government and thought likely to encourage Scottish Independence. 

     

    GERS-1900-1922.jpg

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    One thing is for sure there must be whole host of people in England, "We Want our Country Back", who voted for Brexit and therefore must be whole heartedly supporting Scottish Independence so that the country can free of the Brussels Westminster yoke.

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

     I'm remain and pro Union and consider myself British rather than English. If Scots want Independence that's their prerogative the same as Brexiteers wanted so called  "independence" from Europe. Both in my opinion (and I'm not alone in that opinion by any means whether rightly or wrongly) are economically unsound. There are always two sides and will be winners and losers.

    If Scots think a pick and mix of independence but with political and economic ties to EU is what the majority wants and beleive it will work best for them then each to their own. Let NS call another referendum, it's not my call to make.

     

    Edited by kar999
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    GERS is actually a really incorrect term. 40% of Scottish spending in GERS is spent by Westminster 'on behalf' of Scotland.

    This, as touched on, this includes servicing England's debts, paying for a hugely excessive military including nuclear weapons...for an unnecessary Westminster Parliament / HoL, large English infrastructure projects such as H2S, London Olympics etc. Then there is the disproportionate number of government civil service and military jobs based in England. These convert Scottish revenue into deficit as per the ONS wealth distribution map as Scots pay 8% of the salaries, but then these people pay tax in England not Scotland, meaning England gains revenue and Scotland loses it. Under independence, all civil service and military jobs would be in Scotland, with these people spending and paying tax there.

    It's the same for e.g. VAT, fuel taxes in Scotland. Things cost more in Scotland due to remoteness, everything from groceries, to parcel delivery. Fuel is a classic example. This means Scots pay more VAT per head, in addition to fuel duty. They also use more fuel per head due to the rural nature of Scotland. Yet VAT is allocated per capita to Scotland. This can be multiple billions of pounds lost from Scotland and attributed to England.

    The Scottish government only has data on taxes raised in Scotland such as council tax and non-domestic rates. All data on Westminster taxes - which is the vast bulk of them - must come from the English Treasury, which has turned down repeated requests for more detail. You can understand why.

    We could spend all evening destroying it bit by bit, but it's pointless, as even if we had all the detail, it would still be Scotland's finances under UK management, not under independence.

    GERS is at best Tory propaganda - as designed - and at worst a chocolate teapot in terms of usefulness.

    Quote

     

    Which is why GERS has never once impacted polling on Scottish indy and won't make a blind bit of difference on this, no matter whether it looks good or bad.

     

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    12 minutes ago, kar999 said:

    If Scots want Independence that's their prerogative the same as Brexiteers wanted so called  "independence" from Europe. Both in my opinion (and I'm not alone in that opinion by any means whether rightly or wrongly) are economically unsound. T

    And lots of Scots who previously backed your position now find themselves backing Scottish independence to keep it in the EU. Turned 10% behind to 4% in front (very conservatively) instantly before the true effects of brexit even become evident.

    It is now up to UK unionists to make the case for the 'high risk brexit calamity UK' more than it is for independence supporters to make the case for 'normal status quo low risk independence in the EU'.

    A simple transition to 'Devo super max' within the EU - which is all independence entails - is simple and low risk compared to the massive years to decades of turmoil and uncertainty associated with brexit.

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Can I borrow your optimistic specs please SS ? :)

    We'll need milk bottle bottom superstrength versions to get through Brexit. :hi:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    14 minutes ago, kar999 said:

    Can I borrow your optimistic specs please SS ? :)

    We'll need milk bottle bottom superstrength versions to get through Brexit. :hi:

    I'm optimistic that Scotland will soon become independent. Polling for years predicted support would swing to backing indy in the even of brexit and that's what has happened. 

    I'm not remotely optimistic about the journey there in the short term. UK is entering a very difficult and potentially dark time with Scotland still attached. My wife remains under threat of deportation by May's brownshirts for example.

    I didn't want Scotland to gain independence due to a brexit crash out of the EU. I wanted it to choose in time when it was ready. My wife was terrified when she heard the result, and you can understand why. Only Sturgeon really managed to calm her.

    No choice now but to go and quickly; likely to be rough in the short term. The sooner Scotland is independent the better in terms of getting things stable and growing again.

    A yes vote would immediately end the bulk of the uncertainty for business etc.

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Garden of England
  • Weather Preferences: A large kack of heavy cloud
  • Location: The Garden of England

    A wise man once (probably) said 'it is safer to travel on a big ship in rough seas than in a small boat in choppy waters'

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    5 minutes ago, Dougal said:

    A wise man once (probably) said 'it is safer to travel on a big ship in rough seas than in a small boat in choppy waters'

    Exactly. The EU is a very big ship. The UK a little boat by comparison.

    I suspect N. Ireland may end up opting for the big ship too, particularly if Scotland does. After all, it's attachment is to Britain, narrowly, not England.

    Edited by scottish skier
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Garden of England
  • Weather Preferences: A large kack of heavy cloud
  • Location: The Garden of England
    2 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

    Exactly. The EU us a very big ship. The UK a little boat by comparison.

    Ha! 

    If the EU is a ship it's got a severe list and the passengers are looking a bit green!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    16 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

    My wife remains under threat of deportation by May's brownshirts for example.

    SS - do you have a computer-stored template for this sentence?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    SS - do you have a computer-stored template for this sentence?

    It's kinda important to my family BB, even if you don't seem to care.

    I also work somewhere full of EU nationals. You walk past them staring at their computer screens reading the latest brexit news with obvious fear.

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    16 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

    It's kinda important to my family BB, even if you don't seem to care.

    I also work somewhere full of EU nationals. You walk past them staring at their computer screens reading the latest brexit news with obvious fear.

    Gross exaggeration. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
    8 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

    It's kinda important to my family BB, even if you don't seem to care.

    I also work somewhere full of EU nationals. You walk past them staring at their computer screens reading the latest brexit news with obvious fear.

    A lot of people couldn't care less, it's not their problem after all so why give a toss? My sister is going through similar as my brother-in-law is Portugese. It's unlikely that it'll come to full scale deportations but people on the outside should either offer a little sympathy or offer no sympathy but qualify their reasoning. Petty comments don't really help at a time like this, not when people are genuinely fearful. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    SS I'm a little confused about the deportation claim as you are a British citizen and therefore your wife would have leave to remain in the UK, or in the worst case scenario for you, be granted permanent leave to remain upon application in the same way non-EU spouses are surely? I can understand the concerns but unless I have misinterpreted the legislation then deportation of a UK resident spouse of a British national just simply does not happen? I have not seen anything that suggests otherwise, unfortunately the situation for those EU citizens here on work visas or because of the right to work/travel in other EU countries the situation is somewhat less certain.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Gross exaggeration. 

    How do you know?

    Just wondering, I wouldn't know either way my self.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...