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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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47 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Well this result should consign the 2nd indi ref argument to the back burner where it actually belongs...unless of course those desperate enough to see it decide to vote for a Brexit. 

The SNP weren't the party constantly using the Indy Ref argument throughout the campaign, it was the 3 other 'main' parties (although maybe now the LDs are officially behind the Greens in terms of seats they ain't so 'main' anymore). The SNP were not pushing for a second referendum, just not discounting one. Lets wait and see where things go from here, especially with the EU Ref. The Scottish electorate are more than savvy enough to separate UK, Scottish and EU politics and vote differently each time. There will be a lot of voters who voted No in the Indy Ref and are not SNP voters who will be rather unhappy at the thought of an EU leave vote (my wife for one).

 

40 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Oooooppss the SNP not getting a majority surely means that they don't have a mandate to govern :-), Just like a few on here have been saying about the Tories for months on end hey Lads?????? LOL.

Different electoral systems my dear boy, it's a proportional system up here that has led to only one majority government out of the five so far/ It's specifically designed to pretty much prevent majority governments but the SNP 'broke the system' last time out. Disappointing that they didn't get a majority but not surprising despite what the press may try to have you believe.

Well to sum up, well done to the SNP for getting a third successive term as the governing party in Scotland. They governed successfully as a smaller minority government before so I can't see why they cant do it again. Personally disappointing for me as not only did we lose our constituency MSP, we don't even have an SNP list MSP either now. Wealthy rural Aberdeenshire hasn't been kind to us.

Well played to the Ruth Davidson Party, and impressive result. There were murmurings that they might beat Labour into second place but I'm not sure anyone really though it would happen. In the end they did it comfortably. They ran a smart campaign, courted the 'unionist' vote, focused on Ruth who is relatively popular and competent, especially in comparison to Kezia. In fact they focused on Ruth to the extent that their election material was almost completely devoid of any mention of the party she's leader of. Be interesting to see how she plays it now. The Tories took a pragmatic approach with the previous SNP minority government and worked with them to pass legislation. Will they do that again? I'd hope so, as the Scottish electorate don't tolerate opposition purely for oppositions sake.

Labour, oh dear, oh dear. I can't see Kezia being replaced, not yet anyway. Let her take the fall for poor local election results next year then someone 'new' will take over.

LibDems, despite very annoying repeated claims of "the LibDem bounce back starts here" last night from their representative in the BBC studio (on the basis of the Orkney & Shetland results) it's hardly been a good night for them, but not awful either. Most disappointing aspect of the whole night will be having to listen to the really annoying Willie Rennie again for the next 5 years, although he was always likely to get in on the list if he hadn't won the constituency.

Greens will be really happy with their haul of seats and I'm pleased for them. They weren't far off getting a list seat in the NE either (see, we should all have voted SNP/Green up here after all). Lets see if they can build on this.

UKIP, ha ha ha...2% on the list and no MSPs. Coburn really doesn't help their cause and amusing as he is they need to dump him before they'll get anywhere. Personally though, they can keep him as I enjoy a good laugh.

RISE failed to and fell flat.

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And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

They took votes off Union supporting Labour voters.  Nothing more and nothing less.

That was quite evident early on as the first few results came in. In some seats if Labour were down by say 10%, the Tories were up by roughly the same. Not entirely that simple, or universal, but it's obvious they gained a substantial number of 'unionist' votes from a weak Labour party.

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3 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

The SNP weren't the party constantly using the Indy Ref argument throughout the campaign, it was the 3 other 'main' parties (although maybe now the LDs are officially behind the Greens in terms of seats they ain't so 'main' anymore). The SNP were not pushing for a second referendum, just not discounting one. Lets wait and see where things go from here, especially with the EU Ref. The Scottish electorate are more than savvy enough to separate UK, Scottish and EU politics and vote differently each time. There will be a lot of voters who voted No in the Indy Ref and are not SNP voters who will be rather unhappy at the thought of an EU leave vote (my wife for one).

 

Different electoral systems my dear boy, it's a proportional system up here that has led to only one majority government out of the five so far/ It's specifically designed to pretty much prevent majority governments but the SNP 'broke the system' last time out. Disappointing that they didn't get a majority but not surprising despite what the press may try to have you believe.

Well to sum up, well done to the SNP for getting a third successive term as the governing party in Scotland. They governed successfully as a smaller minority government before so I can't see why they cant do it again. Personally disappointing for me as not only did we lose our constituency MSP, we don't even have an SNP list MSP either now. Wealthy rural Aberdeenshire hasn't been kind to us.

Well played to the Ruth Davidson Party, and impressive result. There were murmurings that they might beat Labour into second place but I'm not sure anyone really though it would happen. In the end they did it comfortably. They ran a smart campaign, courted the 'unionist' vote, focused on Ruth who is relatively popular and competent, especially in comparison to Kezia. In fact they focused on Ruth to the extent that their election material was almost completely devoid of any mention of the party she's leader of. Be interesting to see how she plays it now. The Tories took a pragmatic approach with the previous SNP minority government and worked with them to pass legislation. Will they do that again? I'd hope so, as the Scottish electorate don't like opposition purely for oppositions sake.

Labour, oh dear, oh dear. I can't see Kezia being replaced, nto yet anyway. Let her take the fall for poor local election results next year then someone 'new' will take over.

LibDems, despite very annoying repeated claims of "the LibDem bounce back starts here" last night from their representative in the BBC studio (on the basis of the Orkney & Shetland results) it's hardly been a good night for them, but not awful either. Most disappointing aspect of the whole night will be having to listen to the really annoying Willie Rennie again for the next 5 years, although he was always likely to get in on the list if he hadn't won the constituency.

Greens will be really happy with their haul of seats and I'm pleased for them. They weren't far off getting a list seat in the NE either (see, we should all have voted SNP/Green up here after all). Lets see if they can build on this.

UKIP, ha ha ha...2% on the list and no MSPs. Coburn really doesn't help their cause and amusing as he is they need to dump him before they'll get anywhere. Personally though, they can keep him as I enjoy a good laugh.

But there will also be SNP supporters who voted Yes in the Indy ref who now see voting for a Brexit as their best and probably only short term chance of getting a 2nd go. I think the results from yesterday will take a while to be absorbed, but once they are I would not be surprised to see more of a swing towards Brexit overall across Scotland. As ever tho, time will tell.

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1 minute ago, coldcomfort said:

But there will also be SNP supporters who voted Yes in the Indy ref who now see voting for a Brexit as their best and probably only short term chance of getting a 2nd go. I think the results from yesterday will take a while to be absorbed, but once they are I would not be surprised to see more of a swing towards Brexit overall across Scotland. As ever tho, time will tell.

I've never really understood this argument. Why exactly would SNP voters feel that voting for a Brexit would make a second Indy Ref more likely? If Scotland votes for a Brexit, as does rUK, then there's no argument for a second Indy Ref. If rUK votes to stay in the EU, then irrespective of what Scotland decides then there's no argument for a second Indy Ref. It's hardly likely Scotland will vote for a Brexit whilst the rUK votes to stay. The only possible situation that I can see that might lead to a second Indy Ref is if Scotland votes stay, and by a substantial majority, but rUK votes to leave.

Are you are saying that Indy supporters might vote for a Brexit to tip the balance in favour of one in a close overall UK contest, whilst at the same time hoping enough other people in Scotland vote to remain so that the rUK and Scottish results are different? If so, that's a complicated and dangerous game to play. Go too far and both Scotland and rUK vote Out. If you do get it right though, you still risk the difference in the rUK and Scotland votes not being sufficiently different to justify the second Indy Ref argument. For example, if Leave/Stay across overall UK was say 55/45 but Scotland was 40/60, would that be sufficiently different? I'm not convinced it would, but if it was 30/70 in Scotland it probably would.

Anyway, not been much talk at all about the EU Ref up here so far, so we'll need to see if that changes now that yesterdays election is over with.

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58 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Oooooppss the SNP not getting a majority surely means that they don't have a mandate to govern :-), Just like a few on here have been saying about the Tories for months on end hey Lads?????? LOL.

At the risk of pointing out the extremely obvious, that is precisely what it means and rightly so. The SNP will need to rely on other parties to pass legislation, quite likely the Greens most of the time, by working together. The SNP nearly won a majority under a proportional system. The Tories, on the other hand, only scraped a majority in a system which produces false majorities all the time with a much lower percentage of the vote than the SNP.

 

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20 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

But there will also be SNP supporters who voted Yes in the Indy ref who now see voting for a Brexit as their best and probably only short term chance of getting a 2nd go. I think the results from yesterday will take a while to be absorbed, but once they are I would not be surprised to see more of a swing towards Brexit overall across Scotland. As ever tho, time will tell.

No, the exact opposite would likely happen.

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I finding it amusing that getting your ass whipped and winning just 22% of votes on a lowish turnout which disproportionately favoured you is considered a success. Serious lack of ambition from the Tories.

Pro-independence parties winning another historic majority under PR is excellent news as we head for complete and utter UK political chaos in June.

UK Tories massively divided and weak, Labour a complete back stabbing mess, economy tanking, EU constitutional chaos; Scotland united around pro-indy parties.

Independence remains firmly on the table with support likely to grow as UK governance descend into chaos and/or England crashes out of the EU.

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28 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

But there will also be SNP supporters who voted Yes in the Indy ref who now see voting for a Brexit as their best and probably only short term chance of getting a 2nd go. I think the results from yesterday will take a while to be absorbed, but once they are I would not be surprised to see more of a swing towards Brexit overall across Scotland. As ever tho, time will tell.

Aye, UKIP surged.

Oh no, hold on, lost deposits all round. And under PR. Didn't get even near a single MSP.

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Pretty crap result for the Tories UK-wide. Failed to make any real impact in England against the in-fighting Corbyn led Labour.

Also down in Wales. 

UKIP eating away at them.

Some extra seats while getting utterly whipped again in Scotland is not much consolation.

Pretty bad night for Dave overall. Not much to be cheery about.

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56 minutes ago, Arthur said:

 Finally,.as I think SS often emphasises, the SNP is a coalition of different political  philosophies, united by the idea of independence. I, think it is inevitable therefore, that opposition  to the SNP will itself , coalesce around a coalition of political philosophies united by the idea of unionism. Last night to seems to be the first step in that realignment of opposition, with the Torres looking capable of eating further into SLAB 's core in the future 

If the Tories became a moderate centre-left social democratic party advocating the union they could form something like this.

Obviously that's not going to happen. It's why the Tories have done so poorly; this was the best opportunity they had given Labour are all but a spent force screaming 'Ant-Semite!' at each other. However, they'll never get old left Labour core to vote for them. These people are lefties and also devo max / soft indy. 70% of Scots are open to independence, with only ~1/4 hard against. Ruth's pretty much grabbed all she can as the 'No surrender' party.

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Very interesting result - just catching up.

Back to how the Scottish parliament was originally designed - no party in overall control.  For anyone to present this stunning third SNP victory as 'SNP fail to win majority' simply don't understand the Scottish electoral system and can be ignored with contempt for their lazy journalism.

Delighted the Greens are going to have influence, hopefully change some of the less impressive SNP policies around environment, transport etc.

A good five years ahead :D

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12 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Very interesting result - just catching up.

Back to how the Scottish parliament was originally designed - no party in overall control.  For anyone to present this stunning third SNP victory as 'SNP fail to win majority' simply don't understand the Scottish electoral system and can be ignored with contempt for their lazy journalism.

Delighted the Greens are going to have influence, hopefully change some of the less impressive SNP policies around environment, transport etc.

A good five years ahead :D

The result also puts to bed any delusional accusations of SNP dominance and the ridiculous "One Party State" thing. I think a lot of YES people will be very happy with this result. 

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Very true CMD. I certainly voted on domestic issues and not the constitution, as did people I've spoken with.  Also, the unionist/nationalist split of MSPs is identical to 2011!  

And the tories are the opposition, *shrug*, who cares.

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1 hour ago, scottish skier said:

Pretty crap result for the Tories UK-wide. Failed to make any real impact in England against the in-fighting Corbyn led Labour.

Also down in Wales. 

UKIP eating away at them.

Some extra seats while getting utterly whipped again in Scotland is not much consolation.

Pretty bad night for Dave overall. Not much to be cheery about.

Mid-term. Not that bad for Tories when u look at the in-fighting re Europe, benefits issue at last budget. Labour no real progress. Stalemate really.

SNP dominance probably reached its summit now.

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38 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Mid-term. Not that bad for Tories when u look at the in-fighting re Europe, benefits issue at last budget. Labour no real progress. Stalemate really.

SNP dominance probably reached its summit now.

Aye, question is how long it will last. Up to a century is the norm for Scotland, i.e. Labour dominance and Liberal dominance before that.

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1 hour ago, shuggee said:

And the tories are the opposition, *shrug*, who cares.

Technically only in their imaginations.

Holyrood does not have an 'official HM opposition' like Westminster has.

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3 hours ago, scottish skier said:

I finding it amusing that getting your ass whipped and winning just 22% of votes on a lowish turnout which disproportionately favoured you is considered a success. Serious lack of ambition from the Tories.

They almost doubled the number of votes they received. 

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15 minutes ago, Harve said:

They almost doubled the number of votes they received. 

What good is that if you lost really badly and have no chance of influencing anything?

I've supported the SNP for 25 years and ~20% of the vote is crap. It's getting gubbed embarrassingly. I know this; it's what the SNP have had loads of times.

And all that's going to happen now is that indy becomes more likely because the one UK-wide party that has held it together by being popular on both sides of the border  - the historical party of pan-British social solidarity - is screwed. On both sides of the border too I should add.

I don't think Tory voters quite realise what they've just done. SNP have been trying for years to end Labour's grip on Scotland. Labour was wounded after the referendum and the Tories just stabbed it as it tried to recover, probably to death.

The remaining 2/10 who voted Labour will never vote Tory, but they might vote for independence to make voting Labour may achieve something again. Until that happens, the SNP will dominate the pro-Scotland-side and the 'Ruth Davidson No Surrender' will fight on the British side. 

Remember, some Labour MSPs voted Yes and will vote for another referendum; they've said so.

Today's election was really bad for the pro-union side. If Labour had taken a lot of Lib Dem and Tory votes, getting 40% it would have been much better; a socio-democratic pro-union counter to the SNP. The only way it could have been much worse for the UK today would have been if the BNP forming the main 'British' representation in Holyrood. The Tories are only slightly more palatable here.

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1 hour ago, scottish skier said:

Aye, question is how long it will last. Up to a century is the norm for Scotland, i.e. Labour dominance and Liberal dominance before that.

Exactly ss.

I said this on another forum  before the scottish indy ref and i will expand on it and say it again.

Every election , every political issue like brexit for example , the unionists in and out of scotland will be sweating wondering what scotland is going to do and how the pro independance parties are going to get on and how it will effect the union.

This latest election is just yet another example , you can see and hear the fear in their voices and comments , as they clutch at straws and try and draw any crumb of comfort they can.

Snp didnt gain an overall majority whoppy wooo.

Still the party of governance , and will still be leading scotland into the euroref.

Now the next sweat for the unionists is coming on , how will the jocks vote on the euroref and how will the cards fall? Will it break their beloved uk apart?

I have been hearing the snp have reached their peak for the last 10 years across various interweb forums.

In the end it will be like this every election in scotland till either independance or the scottish parliament is neutered/ended.

Like you all i want is a normal independant country where i vote and choose between scottish parties and their policies affecting my country.

Not this current guff of pro independance scottish parties and anti independance unionist brit parties whose only purpose is to keep scotland subservient to the parliament of another nation.

Next step for me.....................vote remain.

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Countries which are not independent don't tend to have standard short-term electoral (e.g. left-right) cycles.

Instead they tend to pick a primary party to defend their interests when it comes to the bigger country governing them and stick with that party, sometimes for a century...

In Scotland it was the yellow flag liberals, then it was red Labour. Now its the Liberals (SNP) again. Could last quite a while.

---

Anyway, if anyone thinks the party that broke the UK going to be its savoir they need their heid examined. Labour falling behind a Tory party rejected by 8/10 Scots is a disaster for the union. 

I mean what are BBC Scotland going to do? Interview Tories all the time and hope that encourages people to stick with rule by Ruth's boss in London?

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4 hours ago, shuggee said:

Very interesting result - just catching up.

Back to how the Scottish parliament was originally designed - no party in overall control.  For anyone to present this stunning third SNP victory as 'SNP fail to win majority' simply don't understand the Scottish electoral system and can be ignored with contempt for their lazy journalism.

Delighted the Greens are going to have influence, hopefully change some of the less impressive SNP policies around environment, transport etc.

A good five years ahead :D

Pretty well sums up my thoughts this afternoon morning (well I was the saddo stayed up till the last count). I'll add that I am delighted that the suggested UKIP Highlands and Islands advance was as in 2011 a complete illusion, just scrapping over 2% of the H&I list vote and not even close to a seat anywhere in Scotland.

The SNP falling just short of an overall majority but retaining a pro indy majority in parliament is probably the best outcome for Yes supporters. For a government to start a third term with significantly more seats than they started the first term, that is hugely impressive. Some elements of the MSM are crowing about no overall majority, but it actually removes one of the MSMs key lines of attack on the Scottish Government. A marginally minority government should be better government, it will reduce if not remove the risk of complacency and arrogance setting in - there will need to be some compromises to get stuff done - which hopefully as in 2007-11 will lead to more grown-up behaviour in parliament, which should make for a programme of government that has wider appeal and passes better legislation. 

Tories 2nd, Labour 3rd. Some similarities to 1992 when the Tories also strongly played the Unionist card and postponed the widely predicted Tory wipeout to 97 as anti Home Rule / anti Indy vote firmed up for the Tories. The significance of this though is lost on David Cameron and Ruth Davidson. Having stood as the "Ruth Davidson no surrender to the SNP" party - it suggests to me that the 22.5% overall share of the vote is probably the limit of the solid Unionist vote and in effect it means over 3/4 of the Scottish electorate are potential Yes voters. 

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I'm not entirely sure how doubling the number of seats you get in an election can be perceived as a bad result. It was a good result for the SNP, albeit a bit below many polling figures, but also a good night for the Tories.

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