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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
    2 hours ago, skifreak said:

    Wings fundraiser past it's target of £40k and sitting at £48k in less than 19 hours.

    Lol! You just can't keep a good man down.

    Also, today we get to see how serious Westminster is regarding Scotland and the fiscal framework when the unelected HoL vote on the Scotland Bill. Should be fun.

     

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    TNS and Survation Polls

    Constituency:

    TNS

    SNP 60% (+3)
    Labour 21% (n/c)
    Conservatives 13% (-4)
    Liberal Democrats 4% (+1)

    Survation:

    SNP 54% (+1)
    Labour 21% (-1)
    Conservatives 16% (-1)
    Liberal Democrats 5% (n/c)

    Some evidence SNP vote on the increase as we head to May 2016. If that happened it would make sense. After all, we are facing the prospect of England trying to drag Scotland out of the EU against its will. Lab/Con/Lib would all roll over and accept such a travesty of democracy. SNP by contrast would respect the wishes of the people of Scotland and stand up for them.

    Looks like there's possibly nothing to #TorySurge and they'll just get similar to May 15 due to a higher turnout than normal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    At the Scottish Parliament election on May 5, the Scottish Conservatives hope to beat Scottish Labour and become the official opposition party. To what extent would you be more or less likely to vote Scottish Conservative with your regional vote if it would help the party become the official opposition?

    12% More Likely NET
    35% Less Likely NET

    Most popular option for less likely was 32% much less likely. Yer 12% more likely are all voting Tory anyway. That and a few Lib Dems.

    #Torysurge

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Labour are in complete disarray in Scotland. Tories have just started their own internal bun fight. Lib Dems are...ehm...who exactly? It's getting really, really difficult not to get complacent.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
    6 hours ago, frogesque said:
    6 hours ago, frogesque said:

     

    Also, today we get to see how serious Westminster is regarding Scotland and the fiscal framework when the unelected HoL vote on the Scotland Bill. Should be fun.

     

     

     

    Any idea of the time F?   Can't seem to find it on the schedule?

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
    26 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

    Any idea of the time F?   Can't seem to find it on the schedule?

    9 Scotland Bill The report stage was continued, beginning with the adjourned debate on amendment 41. Amendments 45, 46. 56A, 56K and 56L, 62A, 62C, 65A and 65B, 71A, 71AB and 71AC were agreed to. Amendment 56ZA was disagreed to (see division 2). The bill, as amended, was ordered to be printed. (HL Bill 100)

    The House adjourned at 10.14pm until Tuesday 1 March at 2.30pm.

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld/ldordpap.htm

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    3 hours ago, scottish skier said:

    Jeez. 69% SNP in the under 65's.

    Tick tock.

    I would say that we have finally crossed the point where the older pro Union voters have passed away with more and more younger folk reaching the franchise age.

    The referendum was just five years to early. 

    Glad the Tories have collapsed, who will be the darling of the Pro Union media now?

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
    48 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I would say that we have finally crossed the point where the older pro Union voters have passed away with more and more younger folk reaching the franchise age.

    The referendum was just five years to early. 

    Glad the Tories have collapsed, who will be the darling of the Pro Union media now?

    Don't think that is the whole story. Some of 65+s I've spoken have either given up on SLAB and, having seen the good work done by the SNP, are currently lending them a vote which may just become solid support. Not necessarily IRef2 supporters though so be cautious about projecting results.

    Others have just given up and, though they can't bring themselves to vote for the SNP or Tories, they can't vote for a party they no longer believe in so will be stay-at-homes.

    A younger guy I know (Sevco or whatever now passes, OO, UJ waving etc.) has moved solid UKIP from SLAB.

    Labour have nothing to offer anyone other than tax rises and are going to be crushed!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    When you consider both Labour and the Tories have been in decline since the 1950's, that voting intention versus age pattern makes perfect sense. It mirrors the decline of Britishness in Scotland; this peaking in those born in 1944. The cut-off in the over 65's is so stark; a generation still hanging on to a post-war consensus Britain long gone.

    Labour and the Tories need accept they have no future in Scotland it appears; not as strongly pro-union british parties anyway. Even under progressive devolution they must break ties because that is what devolution does; allows a different path to be taken.

    Based on the current trends, the (British) Tories may vanish from Scotland within a decade. They still have a modest vote, but this is so heavily concentrated in older people time is not on their side at all. over half their share is coming from over 65's; that's a ticking time-bomb which when it goes off, will see their vote collapse to minor party status in a very short period of time electorally. Their only hope is independence; something they have been the primary cause of, yet continue to fight against ironically.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
    7 hours ago, Ravelin said:

    Labour are in complete disarray in Scotland. Tories have just started their own internal bun fight. Lib Dems are...ehm...who exactly? It's getting really, really difficult not to get complacent.

    To avoid complacency I suggest that all SNP votes count for only half a vote, they might still win even with that handicap. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore
    19 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

    When you consider both Labour and the Tories have been in decline since the 1950's, that voting intention versus age pattern makes perfect sense. It mirrors the decline of Britishness in Scotland; this peaking in those born in 1944. The cut-off in the over 65's is so stark; a generation still hanging on to a post-war consensus Britain long gone.

    Labour and the Tories need accept they have no future in Scotland it appears; not as strongly pro-union british parties anyway. Even under progressive devolution they must break ties because that is what devolution does; allows a different path to be taken.

    Based on the current trends, the (British) Tories may vanish from Scotland within a decade. They still have a modest vote, but this is so heavily concentrated in older people time is not on their side at all. over half their share is coming from over 65's; that's a ticking time-bomb which when it goes off, will see their vote collapse to minor party status in a very short period of time electorally. Their only hope is independence; something they have been the primary cause of, yet continue to fight against ironically.

    I don't think these things are ever that straight forward though are they? Governing parties invariably have a blip, get blamed for problems/don't fulfil promises, etc etc,  and in turn lose voters. The SNP hasn't had that yet, but you'd expect it'll happen at some point, and then it's a case of who picks up the slack I guess. Of course it could be someone new, or a new version of the old parties but it's equally possible that the old school parties will hang around in enough numbers to be there if/when the time comes. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    42 minutes ago, Paul said:

    I don't think these things are ever that straight forward though are they? Governing parties invariably have a blip, get blamed for problems and in turn lose voters. The SNP hasn't had that yet, but you'd expect it'll happen at some point, and then it's a case of who picks up the slack I guess. Of course it could be someone new, or a new version of the old parties but it's equally possible that the old school parties will hang around in enough numbers to be there if/when the time comes. 

    Scotland isn't a normal country though. What you are saying applies in normal countries (I'd include England in this as it is so big that what happens in the celtic nations makes little difference). Scotland is into the latter stages of a 60 year old transition from being firmly British to being almost fully Scottish again. The decline of both the Tories and Labour is intimately tied to this, as is the long term decline of the empire, Protestantism and Britishness as an identity in Scotland (see 2011 census; it declines steadily from a peak in those born in 1944  to its lowest level in people turning 18 recently).

    People who support independence and/or devo max will look to vote for Scottish parties; it is a natural result of increasing devolution. If Labour became independent and Scottish, even to the point of potentially supporting independence if it felt that was the way forward, they could be revived.

    Remember, the SNP are Green-Lab-Lib-ModerateCon; they just have yellow t-shirts with little saltires on over their normal colours. It's why their support is almost equal accross every socio-demographic group. They are a movement not a party.*

    Except one that is; the over 65's. The people who feel British because they come from a time when Britishness was born in Scotland; the post-war consensus period. The time of nationalised British industries and institutions which united the UK in pan-UK solidarity. Of the birth of the welfare state, NHS etc. When Britain was still 'great' and had an empire. A time of rising prosperity. Britain was good to them and it gave them a British identity; a new phenomenon in Scotland which had never existed really before. They still have this and it's why a lot of them are still voting the way Scotland did in the 1950s.

    I recommend Ian MacWhirter's 'Road to Referendum' STV documentary which details a lot of this. On Youtube. It's a very good summary of the 60 years that have led us here.

    ----

    *Labour have dominated in Scotland for a century, so even if the SNP were just a party, no reason to suppose they won't do the same.

    The reason for Labour's dominance also relates to Scotland not being a normal country. People vote in Scotland for parties which they see as defending them against governments in London they dislike. That's what ultimately killed Labour; they campaigned hand in hand with the Tories. That's not something Scotland forgives easily.

    --

    I should note that Scottish politics can be tricky to understand in England. The main difference is that the union led to England becoming Britain. They are one and the same. This didn't happen in Scotland and Scotland has always been 'Scotland, part of the British Empire'. The national question in Scotland has always featured as a result. It hasn't in England because England would never think to become independent of Britain because, as noted, England is Britain. 

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    You clearly know far more about this than me, so I'm not going to disagree with what you're saying at all, but I do still wonder what happens when the government doesn't deliver, messes up, or whatever else. Take for example the issue of independence - assuming the EU ref doesn't change everything and open the door to a new referendum imminently, it's possible that the SNP won't deliver it quickly enough for many, will that change the mood? Will something unknown come up and change throw a cog in the works? Who knows, at some point a movement/party or whatever else can/could just end up being seen as the establishment, and then then change is always possible imo.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    18 minutes ago, Paul said:

    You clearly know far more about this than me, so I'm not going to disagree with what you're saying at all, but I do still wonder what happens when the government doesn't deliver, messes up, or whatever else. Take for example the issue of independence - assuming the EU ref doesn't change everything and open the door to a new referendum imminently, it's possible that the SNP won't deliver it quickly enough for many, will that change the mood? Will something unknown come up and change throw a cog in the works? Who knows, at some point a movement/party or whatever else may just end up being seen as the establishment, and then then change is always possible i think.

    I think it's possible we could end up like Catalonia where we have a number of pro-independence parties, including both left and right pro-indy. In fact you could argue that maybe Scotland needs that because potentially some more centre-right voters are put off by the fact they see the SNP as too left.

    May will be interesting as we could see the pro-indy Greens overtaking the Libs to form a strong-left-liberal independence party. We just need some Tories to break rank and form a pro-indy right.:)

    I personally can't see strong unionist parties having a much of a future so long as Scotland becomes increasingly devolved. Of course some will remain as there will always probably be a group who don't want Holyrood (about 6% of the population right now). However, if Holyrood becomes the center of Scottish politics that it is becoming, people are less interested in UK politics as it increasingly affects them less. Even in Quebec the federalists are strongly Quebec nationalist; they just think it should still be part of the Canadian Federation. They are not given orders from Ottawa though; and that's key as it is the problem for Lib/Lab/Con. They are seen to be subservient to their English counterparts and that hurts them in a semi-autonomous Scotland.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
    11 minutes ago, Paul said:

    You clearly know far more about this than me, so I'm not going to disagree with what you're saying at all, but I do still wonder what happens when the government doesn't deliver, messes up, or whatever else. Take for example the issue of independence - assuming the EU ref doesn't change everything and open the door to a new referendum imminently, it's possible that the SNP won't deliver it quickly enough for many, will that change the mood? Will something unknown come up and change throw a cog in the works? Who knows, at some point a movement/party or whatever else can/could just end up being seen as the establishment, and then then change is always possible imo.

    I think the ONLY thing that would change the inexorable move to Indy would be a see change at Westminster where Scotland was given its full place as an equal partner in the UK with commensurate equal rights for all the nations that make up the UK. This would mean a substantial shift in Westminster's thinking (Federalisim?) and I cannot see it happening except as a last ditch attempt to superglue the broken bits. As always, it would be seen for what it is, desperate, and far to little and far too late. 55% Yes will be a tipping point and as SS has said time and events are on the side of Indy - it is already somewhere around 51% and the clock is ticking.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    But all that said - labour, cons and lib dems still managed to get themselves 47% (ish) of the vote between them in the 2015 general election. Obviously, and particularly when it comes to the Libs and labour their vote collapsed but that's still a sizeable chunk of the electorate not joining the snp movement?

    Plus of course UKIP grew their vote, eek run for the hills!!! They're neither a party or a movement, I'm not sure what I'd call them though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
    1 hour ago, Paul said:

    I don't think these things are ever that straight forward though are they? Governing parties invariably have a blip, get blamed for problems/don't fulfil promises, etc etc,  and in turn lose voters. The SNP hasn't had that yet, but you'd expect it'll happen at some point, and then it's a case of who picks up the slack I guess. Of course it could be someone new, or a new version of the old parties but it's equally possible that the old school parties will hang around in enough numbers to be there if/when the time comes. 

    I think this next parliament is quite important tbh.

    My mum and step-dad were slating the SNP's pledge to not cut Police and teacher numbers (mum is an education officer, step-dad is reasonably high up in police Scotland). They argue that cutting numbers is the best way to save money and avoid the worst of the cuts. Getting people to take early retirement and slashing middle-management is, in their opinion, a far, far better alternative to the one that they now both face.... 

    The SNP will romp home, infact annihilate every other party. 

    They'll wait until we vote to remain in the EU then put major policies in place... This will be important.   

    7 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

    I think it's possible we could end up like Catalonia where we have a number of pro-independence parties, including both left and right pro-indy. In fact you could argue that maybe Scotland needs that because potentially some more centre-right voters are put off by the fact they see the SNP as too left.

    May will be interesting as we could see the pro-indy Greens overtaking the Libs to form a strong-left-liberal independence party. We just need some Tories to break rank and form a pro-indy right.:)

    I personally can't see strong unionist parties having a much of a future so long as Scotland becomes increasingly devolved. Of course some will remain as there will always probably be a group who don't want Holyrood (about 6% of the population right now). However, if Holyrood becomes the center of Scottish politics that it is becoming, people are less interested in UK politics as it increasingly affects them less. Even in Quebec the federalists are strongly Quebec nationalist; they just think it should still be part of the Canadian Federation. They are not given orders from Ottawa though; and that's key as it is the problem for Lib/Lab/Con; they are seen to be subservient to their English counterparts and that hurts them in a semi-autonomous Scotland.

    I do envisage centre-right and centre-left parties coming to the fore.... Surely? There is nobody else left...

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    30 minutes ago, Paul said:

    But all that said - labour, cons and lib dems still managed to get themselves 47% (ish) of the vote between them in the 2015 general election. Obviously, and particularly when it comes to the Libs and labour their vote collapsed but that's still a sizeable chunk of the electorate not joining the snp movement?

    Plus of course UKIP grew their vote, eek run for the hills!!! They're neither a party or a movement, I'm not sure what I'd call them though.

    Yes. An all time low for those three both individually, and combined. Quite remarkable and something I thought I'd never see, even after the 2011 Holyrood result. The long term transitions I mentioned are that though; they don't happen overnight, but incrementally, and sometimes with set-backs, sometimes surges.

    You do have voters of these parties that approve of the SNP though. That's why Sturgeon can get 'satisfied' ratings into the 70%'s. They might not vote SNP, but they don't dislike them. After all, the SNP are very moderate broad church so unless you are very strongly anti-devo / anti-independence or very strong right/left, you're not going to hate them. About 17% say they'd vote for the union today if Scotland was independent; these are your biggest anti-SNP group. Mainly Tories.

    Polls suggest the pro-UK party vote will reduce further from that of the GE this May, although the Greens look likely to take a share of those further votes lost by UK parties. Looking like 58% potentially for 'Scottish' parties in total which will give over 60% of MSPs pro-indy.

    UKIP are averaging 2.5% so need to over double that to have a hope of getting an MSP (you need 5% at least to make the cut). Possible, but the fact there is an EUref on the cards anyway makes a vote for them rather pointless unless you support all their other polices, which nobody seems to know, not even UKIP.:)

    On that topic... I'm not sure how the EUref will affect May actually, if it does at all. There is some indication in recent polls the SNP vote is on the rise again after stablising in the low 50's, i.e. a tad higher than May 15. I think if polls show the UK looking like heading for a Brext, the SNP vote may rise in response as people look to a party that they know will protect Scotland's EU membership with a new iref if needed. The Scottish branches of the UK parties, even though they all back the EU, are seen as not standing up for Scotland / would just roll over and let Scotland be dragged out of the EU even though it had strongly voted against that*.

    Will be interesting to see!

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore
    5 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

    You do have voters of these parties that approve of the SNP though. That's why Sturgeon can get 'satisfied' ratings into the 70%'s. They might not vote SNP, but they don't dislike them. After all, the SNP are very moderate broad church so unless you are very strongly anti-devo / anti-independence, you're not going to hate them.

    Getting rid of Alex Salmond maybe helped that, he strikes me as a very easy person to dislike!

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    1 minute ago, Paul said:

    Getting rid of Alex Salmond maybe helped that, he strikes me as a very easy person to dislike!

    Marmite. He was really popular, but also really disliked by those who didn't like him. 55-60% satisfied was what he got; Sturgeon's always been a good 10% higher. 10% less disliked too!

    The funny thing is I know a lot of people that didn't like Salmond until they got into politics in the iref. Then they really liked him. What they said to me was they thought they should dislike him because the media said they would.:)

    I liked him, although thought him a bit bombastic. I prefer Sturgeon. Got to hand it to him though; SNP landside and 45% Yes was really something and he played a central role in that. Could have easily climbed the greasy poll in Labour to be a heid yin in London, but stuck to what he believed in, even when that meant decades of a handful of MPs in Westminster. 

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  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I think Alex Salmon is a brilliant politician. Always have.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Here is my latest PoP including the new TNS and Survation.

    I'm not sure the Libs will hold Shetland; they lost it to the SNP in May 15 (but Carmicheal narrowly held the combined seat with Orkney). However, Scotlandvotes predictor is stubborn about that due to tradition!

    Greens looking to come ahead of the Libs. If the Libs did lose both Orkney and Shetland, then they'd be another seat down and if I was Scott or McArthur, I'd not be sending Carmichael Christmas cards any more. :)

    March01Holyrood.png

    EDIT. Funny how UK Lab + Con like FPTP so much. If that applied for Holyrood, there'd be only 2 pro-union MSPs in Holyrood based on current predictions!

    Edited by scottish skier
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  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    As SS said, Alex is like Marmite but I believe he was the right person in the driving seat at the right time. Very able and high profile, he got the SNP taken seriously. Nicola taking over was also a masterstroke. Again, exceptionally able she also has the natural affability and charisma that perhaps Alex lacked. The SNP also have one of the toughest negotiators around in Stuart Hosie. Had the pleasure of meeting him briefly at the weekend launch of Jenny Gilruth's campaign for MSP Glenrothes and Mid Fife. A real gentle man. 

    The SNP have a fantastic leadership and also the feet on the ground. SLAB and the Tories have no one close.

     

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