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Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    57 minutes ago, Colsuth said:

    I wish I shared your optimism. Got made redundant in November.  I have applied for many jobs without even an interview.

      I would disagree with your point that all the jobs will come back.  I lost my job due to to a change in rota pattern.  There was an instant 20% cut in personnel.  I worked on a mature asset.  Therefore too say that all the job losses are from new develpments is untrue.

    Sorry to hear you got made redundant. I'm very lucky in my role isn't greatly affected; partly to do with the fact my direct work for the industry is on top of my university academic position where I can seek funding for other areas of research while industry money is tight. Very worrying and depressing though as I know plenty of people in Aberdeen affected.

    I should have said most cuts are for new developments (unless they are already well underway). That's where I'm seeing people go the quickest.

    In terms of the medium to longer terms... I'm seeing the future from a geological and energy / thermodynamics perspective. Oil is going to be very expensive again soon as we're running out, yet global consumption continues to grow steadily (see my posts in the oil price thread). Desperately going after super expensive to extract tight shale oil just to help demand meet supply (which was what was happening) is case in point. The current price is wholly artificial and unsustainable.

    However, the industry is stupid and the UK government even more idiotic. The price falls, the jobs go, then when the price goes back up again there's a bloody staff shortage. This pushes the price up even further...

    The UKCS has a lot of oil left; up to half. Lots more if you start looking at more unconventional sources. It's way more competitive than tight shale, at least if George didn't tax shaft it unexpectedly all the time.

    This is why lots of UKCS assets are being bought up right now by companies which have cash. Now is the time to buy fields ready to rake it in when the price inevitably rebounds.

    That doesn't help right now of course.

    Unfortunately this the nature of commodities industries. I don't know if this is your first downturn, but it's my third. My boss's fifth. I remember similar despondency in 1998-99. The industry was finished... no point in me getting a job in it etc. Then along came the next boom.

    Everyone is looking for the bottom right now and once people feel that's happened, it will start to turn things around. Feild developments take years and when people start to see 80..100..120 a barrel 5+ years down the line, they start spending again. The problem right now is that everyone is like rabbits in headlights just watching the price fall. In a way if it hit $10 a barrel that would be good because people would laugh at the utterly impossible stupidity of that and we'd have our bottom. The only way from there is back up.

    As noted though, the problem will be once more that people like yourself have decided to quit the industry and move into another. Totally understandable.

    The ones that hang on though are the ones that reap the reward when there's not enough staff again.

    It would be much better if we had a ScotOil nationalised company. Wouldn't eliminate staff cuts in downturns, but would make ups and downs much soother because the plan would be long term, not short.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    3 hours ago, frogesque said:

    May 2016 Local Constituency MSP for Glenrothes - Jenny Gilruth . . . SNP

    May 2016 Regional Party List  MSP. . . SNP

    There do seem to be a few confused out there and suggesting silly stuff like statical - in a PR system FGS - voting to maximise pro-indy MPs, e.g. SNP + Green.

    Worth clarifying on here again...

    Your second PR list vote is actually more important than your constituency vote as it is the PR part which decides how the seats are allocated.

    What happens is that the list vote is counted and parties with less than 5% in a region excluded. This gives new shares for those that got >5% regionally*. This converts to seats. Say this gives:

    10 seats SNP, 5 Seats Lab, 2 seats Con, 3 seats Green. 9 of these 20 are constituency seats, so...

    If the SNP had already won all the 9 consistences, the remaining 11 would be allocated as follows:

    1 SNP (+9 constituency), 5 Seats Lab, 2 seats Con, 3 seats Green.

    If you ended the constituency part and made all seats list, the allocation would be identical.

    Some idiots have suggested if you vote SNP + Green, you'll get extra Green MPs and SNP. Erm no, if you say up the Green share on the list to give 6 Green above, then the SNP will drop by 3 at least. You can't cheat PR.

    'But that Scotlandvotes site says otherwise if you plug in numbers a certain way!' I've heard some say. That's because it is a very simplistic estimator. It doesn't do regional breakdowns but makes lots of assumptions. If there were no little parties in a region and only 40% SNP, 25% Lab, 15% Con, 10% Green stood getting those shares on the list, that's how the seats would be allocated. So if you'd tactically voted SNP V1 then Green V2 you'd have helped hand 10% of the vote away from the SNP to the Greens and 10% of seats too. If you want the Greens instead of the SNP then fine, but if you wanted your cake and to eat it, you didn't manage.

    Scotland's system cannot be cheated.

    ---

    *Also, to expand...The reason you can get a majority on say 44% of the total PR list vote (as per SNP 2011) is down to small party elimination. These need 5% in a region for a list seat. If say the SSP got 4%, Pensioners Party 2%, UKIP 3%, solidarity 3%, then they all don't get a seat (in regions one seat is normally >6% of the total number of seats), but 12% of the vote is now removed. So if the SNP had 44% of the total vote, for seat allocation you now have 44/(100-12)*100 = 50% so the SNP get half of the total number of seats (constituency + list) for that region on 44% of the initial vote. This happened in a number of regions in 2011, i.e. after small party removal the SNP share went over 50%, meaning the SNP ended up with a majority of seats. Of course the other bigger parties got more seats than initial vote share too.

    ---

    So, when voting, remember it works like this:

    For the V2 Regional list vote, vote for the party you want in government. If the SNP are your favourite party, vote SNP on the list to maximise their chance of being in government with a large number of seats.

    For your V1 constituency vote you are choosing your local MSP. As this is FPTP, it's winner takes all so you might want to vote tactically, if only because say you are a Green voter but you've no Green candidate.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    SS: I was kind of testing how I could convey the concept of what we will be voting for, namely a NAMED local constituency candidate and a preference for the regional PARTY representation.

     

    The D'Hondt system is complex and sort of iterative but designed to give a fair balance to smaller parties and it is virtually impossible to play the system by tactical voting since you would need pre-knowledge of the result to affect it (?)

     

    There's a lot of talk about the regional list vote and while some is simply ignorant of how the system works, there are others deliberately obfuscating their position, especially with regard to RISE and the Greens attempting to snaggle SNP votes or worse, divide the Indy representation for Unionist aims.

     

    If any parties wish to get votes they should campaign for them with their own policies, also, they need to put in the hard miles on the streets and on the local Councils. Simply saying give us your 'second preference vote otherwise it will be wasted' is rubbish. 

     

    SNP/SNP!

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    14 hours ago, scottish skier said:

     

    This election is no time to play a political calculator. Once Scotland has full Devo Max or Independence then there will be time for other smaller parties to take their place.

    Until that is achieved it has to be SNPX2. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Survation results for sat with in various policy areas (keep in mind online polls underestimate SNP and sat with them for whatever reason).

    Pretty obvious that people are aware that they don't have full control, notably of the economy. Performance on that is seen in Call me Dave's hugely negative score.

      Satisfied (net) Dissatisfied (net) Net satisfaction score
    Justice 51% 20% +31%
    Environment 47% 17% +30%
    Education 50% 22% +28%
    Health 51% 27% +24%
    Transport 46% 24% +21%
    Economy 39% 24% +16%

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    SS's Holyrood Poll of Polls updated to include the latest survation:

    Constituency:
    53% SNP
    22% Lab
    15% Con
    6% Lib
    3% Other

    Regional List:
    48% SNP
    22% Lab
    15% Con
    6% Lib
    6% Green
    2% UKIP

    Gives this in terms of seats from Scotlandvotes calculator:

    With changes on 2011.

    72(+3) SNP
    28(-9) Lab
    18(+3) Con
    6(+1) Lib
    5(+2) Green
    0(nc) UKIP

    Labour looking like the biggest losers.

    Lib numbers likely overestimated as its assumed they'll hold Orkney and Shetland. That's not a given as they lost Shetland in the GE and Carmicheal only narroly held Orkney.

    Con might gain a little from new labour unionists. Not a given though as they've often polled higher at times than their final score in elections.

    Biggest winners are pro-indy SNP and Green; 60% of MSPs pro indy based on these numbers.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    European referendum PoP:

    52% Remain
    26% Leave
    18% DK / WNV

    Excluding DK / WNV:
    67% Remain
    33% Leave

    Holding steady like this for years now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    And Finally, independence 'tomorrow' question:

    Giving bias to online polling (average of all 5 recent polls with 3 online):
    47.5% Yes
    46.1% No
    6.6% DK

    Excluding DK
    50.7% Yes
    49.3% No

    Giving equal weighting to all three types of polling (doorstep, telephone, online):
    48.6% Yes
    44.8% No
    6.7% DK

    Excluding DK
    52.1% Yes
    47.9% No

     

    All polls showing Yes continuing to climb at a slow but steady pace. Yes edged up a tad in my poll of polls as result.

    Majority support for independence is the new norm. 

    EDIT, and I should note unweighted bases have a weird thing where the more SNP voters there are, the lower number of people who claim to voted Yes in 2014. Or conversely, the higher the number of unionist voters in the initial sample, the higher the Yes in the initial sample.

    This suggests a lot of people claiming to have voted Yes when they didn't. Results in a lower level for calculated Yes and might explain why online polls are showing lower Yes than telephone and door chapping.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    It's a panelbase online poll as suspected. There are normally less favourable to Yes and pro-indy parties than telephone and door knocking as noted.

    Gives for the EUref:

    65% Remain

    35% Leave

    Excluding DK, which is the norm, i.e. 2/3 Remain vs 1/3 leave.

    If the UK exits the EU, Yes to indy would be 52%. Reality is likely a little higher due to the reasons detailed.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

    Now there's an interesting graph:

     

    pay rates

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Alex Massie is one of the few Tory journalists who actually understands things. 

    Sure he can't hide his leanings and doesn't try to, but he's not wandering around in a little fantasy world.

    Quote

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/yes-brexit-could-very-easily-lead-to-the-break-up-of-britain/

    Yes, Brexit could very easily lead to the break-up of Britain

    Oh, look, it’s time for another episode of Jocksplaining. That is, time to remind some people south of the wall that what’s obvious to them is not at all obvious to the folk north of the wall...

    ...Sure, it would be a decision made by Britain for Britain but it would not be universally perceived as such in Scotland. Here it would be seen by many people as though Scotland – at present much more than a region but not quite a state – was being forced to leave the EU despite manifestly preferring not to.

    And that would change things. It would leave people here questioning whether Britain was still home, whether there was still a future here. At the very least, it would open space for a fresh discussion on this question. What kind of country is this? What kind of country would it like to be? If one jig is up, another ship can sail too. Perceptions would shift; impressions would change.

    I assure Brexiters that a post-Brexit indyref campaign that argued Scotland cannot afford to be independent or in the EU if England is not is an argument that cannot be won with honour even if it were won at all. It would leave many Scots thinking, Well, maybe that’s true. But we’ll no be told that by the likes of you. We’ll make our own decisions, for ourselves, for better or even for worse.

    Now you may object that would be irrational, but voters are not perfectly rational calculating machines. Nor should they be expected to be. In this instance, the picture would be one in which Scotland is being told by England to do things it does not want to do. That’s a prospect guaranteed to make Nats out of Yoons. Why, I could be tempted to vote Yes in such circumstances myself.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    22 hours ago, shuggee said:

    Now there's an interesting graph:

     

    pay rates

    Sums up why I started supporting independence.

    Graduated in 1999 with two degrees from 2 top unis yet was faced with having to leave the country and move to England to get a decent job. #UKOK

    Self governance for Scotland has improved things markedly as that graph shows. Imagine what could be achieved if Scotland was a proper country.

    ---

    As an aside, one thing I'll not miss is Scotland's statistics always being compared to the UK. Not other countries - which would be a lot more useful / meaningful - but the UK every time. BBC, STV, unionist papers...

    It's so inward looking and parochial. Aye, everyone in the world compares their country with the UK when thinking about how well they are doing and what policies work. UK is the benchmark for how to do things. Freaky weird parochial obsession.

    (Although of course that forces indy supporters into making similar comparisons just to say 'Well the UK survives, so if we are doing as well as it, we can too'.)

    There's a lot we can learn from other countries in terms of what's good and also of course what's bad. 

    I suspect though that comparing Scotland as part of the UK with other small European nations is not something the unionist press want to do. Might give folk ideas above their station.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Courtesy of Wings, here's one guy that really doesn't get it writing for City AM:

    bjenkin.jpg

    Edited by skifreak
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    What, I thought it was over forever?

    Sure it's bad. It's not like its never happened before though.

    I remember the tale my hapless colleague tells me. Bought a house in Aberdeen at the peak of the previous (90's) boom and just after that the oil price collapsed and he had to leave the area, making a big loss on his house sale. Few years later and the next boom (the one we've just come out of) was underway; his house appeared on the market again for way more than he'd sold it for.

    Quote

    https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/99068/politician-says-there-will-be-a-revival-in-the-north-sea/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EV%20Daily%20Newsletter%202016-01-19&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter

    Politician says there will be a “revival” in the North Sea

    The politician who led a committee looking at the oil and gas industry said there will be a “revival” in the North Sea.

    MSP Murdo Fraser spoke after the findings of a report by the Scottish Government’s energy committee were made public.

    Evidence was given last year by industry leaders, unions and politicians on the current state of the industry in the North Sea.

    Fraser said while the low oil price had heavily dominated news headlines the committee members envisaged a “sustainable future” for oil and gas in Scotland for “decades” to come.


     

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
    35 minutes ago, skifreak said:

    Courtesy of Wings, here's one guy that really doesn't get it writing for City AM:

    bjenkin.jpg

    Who'd have thunk it, according to that chap I'm a "Corbynista type, anti-English radical".

    When will some people realise that Scottish Independence is nothing to do with being anti-English (why never anti-Welsh, or anti-Northern Irish?) and everything to do with Scotland controlling it's own affairs the way it's population wants to. Doubly ironic since that article was written by a "leading Eurosceptic Tory MP" according to The Guardian.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    11 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

    Who'd have thunk it, according to that chap I'm a "Corbynista type, anti-English radical".

    When will some people realise that Scottish Independence is nothing to do with being anti-English (why never anti-Welsh, or anti-Northern Irish?) and everything to do with Scotland controlling it's own affairs the way it's population wants to. Doubly ironic since that article was written by a "leading Eurosceptic Tory MP" according to The Guardian.

    It's unionists who are the most anti-English. In recent polling, SNP voters were the most pro England having it's own official national anthem for example.

    I'm very supportive of that. Also think English culture and identity should be encouraged. Likewise support an English parliament, even independence for England. British unionists are normally very much against such things.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I wonder where the £57,000 went.

    Will unionist MPs and MSPs close to the top of the campaign resign party whips while this is investigated?

    Quote

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35351396

    Better Together fined by Electoral Commission over referendum spending

    The Better Together campaign in the independence referendum has been fined for failing to provide a full and complete report on its spending.


    A £2,000 penalty was imposed by the Electoral Commission because the pro-Union campaign did not provide receipts or invoices for £57,000 of expenditure.

    Will it even be investigated as per e.g. WFI? Looks like it won't.

    I notice the BBC lying about Wings (by omission) in the same article. He was fined for being a little late; every penny accounted for as confirmed by the EC.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Not like you to miss a story SS, especially a juicy one like this...

    MSP Joan McAlpine's constituency office vandalised
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-35351136

    Must be those nasty CyberNats up to their tricks again....oh wait a sec... "She shares the Dumfries shop with fellow SNP politicians Aileen McLeod MSP and Richard Arkless MP"

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    43 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

    Not like you to miss a story SS, especially a juicy one like this...

    MSP Joan McAlpine's constituency office vandalised
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-35351136

    Must be those nasty CyberNats up to their tricks again....oh wait a sec... "She shares the Dumfries shop with fellow SNP politicians Aileen McLeod MSP and Richard Arkless MP"

    Disgraceful. Ruth Davidson needs to 'reign in her attack dogs'. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Seems George is deliberately targeting people who voted No.

    People in receipt of government support, notably women, were statistically more likely to have voted No. Makes sense; concerns about loss of income when they are already struggling to feed the kids and pay the bills even though they are 'strivers' in work.

    Nice way to thank them anyway.

    Quote

    https://archive.is/a1sCy

    Revealed: Chancellor George Osborne to cost Scots working mothers £3,400 each year

    New figures reveal for the first time the impact on Scots from George Osborne's cuts to in-work benefits through the new Universal Credit.
    Critics have accused the Chancellor of attempting to resurrect his scrapped tax credit cuts by the back door.
    Analysis shows that the average Scottish single mother-of-two working full time on the new National Living Wage would be £3,321 a year worse off by 2021.

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Reap what you sow.

    Osborne knows independence is now inevitable so he will try and take as much money of Scotland that he can get away with.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
    2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

    Reap what you sow.

    Osborne knows independence is now inevitable so he will try and take as much money of Scotland that he can get away with.

    I think that's a bit unfair on Osbourne. He's not targeting Scotland, or poor Scottish No voters, he's targeting everyone who's at the lower end of the income scale across the UK. Of course 'we' didn't vote for him or his government (well some did, but not many).

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