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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Meanwhile, only following snippets, but it doesn't sound like it's going too well for Carmichael in court.

     

    QC for the petitioners is making a good case, but whether it's enough is another matter. As I understand it the judges pass their verdict/opinion to Westminster and it's then up to Westminster to determine any 'punishment'. Who has any faith that Westminster will then do anything other than 'protect it's own'?

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Shame the witness testimony isn't being televised, would be justice for everyone to have the chance to see Carmichael squirm under oath. Closing statements by the respective QCs is going to be broadcast though I believe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    From what I'm catching, Carmichael's QC is desperately trying a series of technicalities at the last minute. Basically, Carmichael is guilty as sin, his QC knows this as does everyone watching, but can he walk on a technicality...

     

    I understand the judges can't force Carmichael to step down as an MP. They decide if he is legally guilty or not, then report this to Westminster who issue punishment.

     

    To be honest, Carmichael being found guilty by the judges and being let off by Westminster would be electorally as good for the SNP as him stepping down.

     

    So, if found guilty, it's pretty much win win for the SNP.

     

    Hell, even if he gets off on a technicality, that's still good for the SNP, as this trial has been a disaster for the reputation of the Libs and Carmichael.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    From what I'm catching, Carmichael's solicitor is trying a series of technicalities. Basically, Carmichael is guilty as sin, but can he walk on a technicality...

     

    I understand the judges can't force Carmichael to step down as an MP. They decide if he is guilty, then report this to Westminster who issue punishment.

     

    To be honest, Carmichael being found guilty by the judges and being let off by Westminster would be electorally as good for the SNP as him stepping down.

     

    So, if found guilty, it's pretty much win win for the SNP.

     

    Hell, even if he gets off on a technicality, that's still good for the SNP, as this trial has been a disaster for the reputation of the Libs and Carmichael.

    What if westminster grow a brain and sack him if he's guilty, would it still be a win?

     

    Probably would tbh as none of the main stream parties appeal over the border any more by the sound of things.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    What if westminster grow a brain and sack him if he's guilty, would it still be a win?

     

    Probably would tbh as none of the main stream parties appeal over the border any more by the sound of things.

     

    If they tell him he must stand down; which would be the correct procedure if he did break electoral law, then he shouldn't stand again.

     

    If that happens, then there's a good chance the SNP would take his seat in the subsequent by-election. He only won it by a whisker and, I understand, lost Shetland to the SNP but held the combined Shetland-Orkney seat due to personal popularity in his home island of Orkney.

     

    Even if the SNP didn't take the seat, it wouldn't matter as all eyes are on May's Scottish election now. That's what's important. 56/59 MPs in Westminster isn't radically improved by 1 more!

     

    So win-win in the sense that he can't walk out of this really without the Libs being damaged badly; so much so that even if Carmichael stays, his Lib Dem colleagues in Holyrood Constituency seats in both Orkney and Shetland may go (separate seats for Holyrood).

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    If he does get the boot it might still be too little too late to save the Lib Dem MSPs in the Northern Isles next May, if he had stepped down of his own choice the Lib Dems would have been in a much better position. Hell if he had resigned in his own time and apologised, he might even have won the subsequent by-election himself. But he has damaged the whole of the Scottish Lib Dems to be a fall guy for the now defunct coalition - so the question is who's he covering for?  David Cameron?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Derek Bateman sums up Carmichael's QC's final defence:

     

    kBMf7hW4_bigger.jpeg

    My client is a disreputable spiv and a liar, m'lord, but he is not technically a crook

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    If he does get the boot it might still be too little too late to save the Lib Dem MSPs in the Northern Isles next May, if he had stepped down of his own choice the Lib Dems would have been in a much better position. Hell if he had resigned in his own time and apologised, he might even have won the subsequent by-election himself. But he has damaged the whole of the Scottish Lib Dems to be a fall guy for the now defunct coalition - so the question is who's he covering for?  David Cameron?

    Probably or one of the others high up in westminster, doubt very much it was his idea.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Roddy Dunlop QC appears to be arguing that the Channel 4 interview was unfair, the answer he gave doesn't matter because it was on the 4th time of asking the question and that Carmichael is the victim here!  :cc_confused:

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Roddy Dunlop QC appears to be arguing that the Channel 4 interview was unfair, the answer he gave doesn't matter because it was on the 4th time of asking the question and that Carmichael is the victim here!  :cc_confused:

     

    The defense appears to be 1) Only the C4 interview is relevant to the 'petition' 2) That interview was unfair 3) It was only a little lie so losing his political career over it would be "disproportionate".

     

    On the basis that the prosecution case sounded good and that the defense sounds preposterous, I predict Carmichael will get off with it. Lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     3) It was only a little lie so losing his political career over it would be "disproportionate".

     

    The problem with is obviously...

     

    What about the political career of the SNP candidate in Orkney who narrowly lost?

     

    And those standing in Mundell's and Murray's seats...

     

    Maybe they might have won if people had known #nikileaks was all a fabrication.

     

    I'm surprised Dunlop doesn't realise this.

     

    At my work, if someone tells a big porkie to get the job over someone else, they'll get fired if later discovered.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL

     

    Well, as only ~5% of the population back a return to direct Westminster rule (very consistent in SSAS surveys) and 1/2 backing full independence now, it does seem Scotland is heading in one direction with no obvious signs of it turning back.

     

    On this subject, an abstract from Iain MacWhirter's new book, as published in The National.

     

     
     
    It does seem that what happened in May hasn't really sunk in for many in the pro-union camp. It's like it didn't happen. Yet the implications of it and what it symbolises will shape the future enormously.
     
    As MacWhirter eludes to in the last line about... if Scots don't vote for British unionist parties in consistent majority, if they are voting 'all about Scotland' and no longer about Britain, the union cannot survive.

     

     

    It is fascinating (and predictable, and so so Westminster - London - Englnad centric), that in the English media there has been virtually no change to how Scotland is reported on, and particularly the SNP, i.e. still given hardly any more airtime/newsprint than when they had a handful of MPs. And whenever there is a story more specific to Scotland there'll be a snippet from what Nicola Sturgeon supposedly said, with equal time given to Labour and Tory views on said story, as if either of them has any mandate whatsoever to interfere in Scottish politics.............

     

    I think the strategy south of the border is clear, act as if nothing has happened, nothing has changed, and hope it all 'just goes away' if it's left alone long enough. The challenge for you lot is to try maintain your momentum north of the border, because I fear that, if the SNP is unable to make any significant progress in terms of real change then in four years time people will revert to older voting habits having been disappointed that their 'voter daring' of 2015 achieved nothing much, which would be a terrible shame.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    because I fear that, if the SNP is unable to make any significant progress in terms of real change then in four years time people will revert to older voting habits having been disappointed that their 'voter daring' of 2015 achieved nothing much, which would be a terrible shame.

     

    I'd fear that much more!

     

    However, the last time we saw a party vote collapse this spectacularly over a similar short period of time (18 years or so; May's GE result has been coming since 1997) and a new 'movement' rise in its place, was when the Labour movement eliminated the (for so long dominant) liberals way back in the early 1900's. Labour then became a dominant force for the next part of a century in Scotland. The non-Tory vote went almost completely from yellow to red in a relatively short space of time.

     

    We seem now to have gone full circle and the yellow liberal vote (SNP) has replaced the red, possibly to predominate once more until the constitutional question is resolved.

     

    The last time yellow dominated, Scotland almost became independent within the empire. Only the war and the associated rise of the Labour movement put and end to that by creating a new movement, and, for the first time, a British identity in Scotland; this peaking in those born in 1944.

     

    What can save the union this time is the question?

     

    There is no founding purpose to the union (originally empire & protestantism) any more, and no post-imperial reason to hold it together (WW's, then, crucially, post-war consensus social solidarity / nationalisation, welfare state etc). So it's dying.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Latest TNS full Scotland Poll.

     

    Constituency:

    58% SNP

    24% Lab

    12% Con

    4% Lib

     

    List:

    52% SNP

    25% Lab

    11% Con

    5% Green

    5% Lib

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Bloody Hell!! That is some verdict on The Scotland Bill.

     

    58% in the constituency, and is that Labour picking up Tory votes?

     

    Incredible poll. Inde2 here we come.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Bloody Hell!! That is some verdict on The Scotland Bill.

     

    58% in the constituency, and is that Labour picking up Tory votes?

     

    Incredible poll. Inde2 here we come.

     

    Looks Like Lab may have gained a little from the libs, but all within MoE, so could just be noise.

     

    Scotlandvotes Seat Prediction:
    77(+8 ) SNP
    33(-4) Lab
    11(-4) Con
    5(nc) Lib
    3(+1) Green
     
    =63% of MSPs pro-indy.
     
    Fairly standard of late.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Bloody Hell!! That is some verdict on The Scotland Bill.

     

     

    Fieldwork dates were 16th Oct to 4th Nov so really before any details came out, not that most people would be that clued up on it even now.

     

    Anyway, a good LOL at Kezia's 'satisfaction' ratings....

     

    Like 7%, Dislike 25%, Don't know who she is 46%

     

    Even among her own i.e Labour voters, 35% don't know who she is! 25% of Labour voters like her...but 32% like Nicola i.e she's less popular than Nicola among voters intending to vote Labour. That's got to set alarm bells ringing.

     

    Edit: At least only 18% of Labour voters don't know who Jeremy Corbyn is (the highest 'don't know who he is' of any group of voters). Is this the 'Ma da votid labour, ma ganda votid Labour, so am votin Labour' group?

    Edited by Ravelin
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Time for a wee 'Then and now' post.

     

    Then:

     

    http://www.cumbernauld-media.com/news/politics/1206-labour-claims-cumbernauld-tax-office-jobs-are-under-threat-from-indyref-yes-vote

     

    Labour claims Cumbernauld Tax Office jobs are under threat from #IndyRef ‘Yes’ vote

     

    KphLNuNK_bigger.png

    1400 jobs at HMRC in Cumbernauld are dependent on us staying in the UK. #indyref #LabourNo

    Bu67gQOIMAAFPe0.jpg
     
    55 retweets15 likes

     

    and now:

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-34798266

     

    Major job losses with HMRC Scottish office closures

     

    The tax collection agency, HMRC, is to consolidate its UK network of offices in a move which could see more than 2,000 jobs lost in Scotland.

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    75% of 16-34 age group back Scotland's national movement for independence, the SNP.

     

    The future's bright, the future's yellow.

    post-9421-0-56139700-1447337505_thumb.pn

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    75% of 16-34 age group back Scotland's national movement for independence, the SNP.

     

    The future's bright, the future's yellow.

     

    That's mad. No other word for it. The future's going to be so yellow it'll be like a thermonuclear explosion.

     

    Edit: If my understanding of the tables is correct the SNP also have the broadest support across age ranges and socio-economic status, so they really do speak for Scotland far more than any of the other parties can claim.

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    Personal 'Like' ratings.

     

    Slightly odd question, as it does make the respondent have to ask what that means?

     

    Like personally, as a politician, or both? Do I think they are a good leader? Do I like/respect them but not their policies?


     

    Anyway, results clear enough.

     

    Nicola Sturgeon

    44% Like

    23% Neutral

    25% Dislike

    =+19% NET

    (5% Don't know who he/she is)

     

    Kezia Dugdale

    7% Like

    18% Neutral

    23% Dislike

    =-16% NET

    (46% Don't know who he/she is)

     

    Jeremy Corbyn

    15% Like

    21% Neutral

    36% Dislike

    -21% NET

    (21% Don't know who he/she is)

     

    Ruth Davidson

    11% Like

    18% Neutral

    35% Dislike

    =-24% NET

    (30% Don't know who he/she is)

     

    David Cameron

    14% Like

    19% Neutral

    61% Dislike

    =-47% NET

    (2% Don't know who he/she is)

     

    Perfect Daily Record headline there:

     

    'New Poll: Nicola Sturgeon Disliked more than Kezia Dugdale!'

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    Voters intending to vote Labour in May 16 Opinion:

     

    Nicola Sturgeon

    32% Like

    17% Neutral

    47% Dislike

     

    Kezia Dugdale

    25% Like

    20% Neutral

    10% Dislike

     

    Jeremy Corbyn

    31% Like

    15% Neutral

    24% Dislike

     

    While net she's not as popular net, it is interesting that more Labour voters like Sturgeon than do Corbyn or Dugdale.

     

    Likewise, 54% of Labour voters either like or are neutral on that 'evil nazi separatist' Sturgeon.

     

    Telling.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Looking good! Interested to see what happens after the Scotland Stitch Up , sorry, Scotland Bill visits the House of Lords and Ladies*

     

    (Lords and Ladies, aka Cuckoo's Pint - can be quite pretty but very invasive and poisonous, esp. the red berries)

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    Another 'then and now'.
     
    Then:

     
    MoD rejected Scottish plan for Red Arrows to use blue and white smoke
     
    The Ministry of Defence rejected a proposal to force the Red Arrows to trail the colours of the Scottish flag at the Glasgow Commonwealth Games’ opening ceremony, it emerged today as the independence debate intensified.
    The Games’ organisers confirmed that an informal approach was made by the event’s producers that the world-famous RAF Aerobatic Team performed its flypast at the event using blue and white smoke only...
     
    ...A spokesman for the Red Arrows today backed the MoD, telling the Telegraph they would never trail any other colours than the red, white and blue of the Union.

     

     

    Now:

     
    Red Arrows flypast to honour India's Prime Minister
     
    The Red Arrows fly over London trailing smoke in the colours of the Indian flag in honour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he begins a visit to the UK

     

     

    Pretty creepy country the UK.
     
    #minitrue
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