Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Scottish Politics 2011-2017


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Yougov leadership ratings:

     

    Do you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing well or badly as First Minister?
    66% Well
    28% Badly
    = +38% NET
     
    Do you think that Ruth Davidson is doing well or badly as leader of the Scottish Conservative party? 
    38% Well
    37% Badly
    = +1% NET
     
    Do you think that Kezia Dugdale is doing well or badly as leader of the Scottish Labour party?
    24% Well
    37% Badly
    = -13% NET
     
    Do you think that David Cameron is doing well or badly as Prime Minister?
    32% Well
    61% Badly
    = -29% NET
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 30.9k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    • Scottish-Irish Skier

      8874

    • mountain shadow

      1528

    • skifreak

      1435

    • frogesque

      1306

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland
    £170m contract for phase 1 of the AIIP (Aberdeen Inverness Improvements Project) has been awarded. This will see the following rail improvements by 2019:
     
    • Double-track 16 miles of line between Aberdeen and Inverurie
    • Build a new station at Forres and straighten the railway alignment
    • Extend platforms at Insch and Elgin to accommodate longer trains
    • Upgrade signalling systems along the route.
    • Install infrastructure for new stations at Dalcross and Kintore.
     

    Due to bring the following benefits:

    • Half Hourly service from Inverurie to Aberdeen all day.
    • Reduced Inverness to Aberdeen Journey times.
    • Allow operation of HSTs for Inverness to Aberdeen journeys
    • Extra peak time services between Elgin and Inverness
    • Park and Ride and Inverness Airport station at Dalcross. 
    ​
    Phase II which will come in Network Rails CP6 planning period will follow the A96 dualling from Inverness to Auldearn. This has to be completed first to allow demolition of road bridges which currently prevent track doubling between Inverness and Nairn. Phase 2's double tracking and dynamic loop provision further East will allow:
     
    • Half hourly service between Inverness and Elgin
    • Hourly service between Inverness and Aberdeen.
    • Clockface timetable for example trains to Elgin on the half hour, trains to Aberdeen on the hour from Inverness.
    • Journey time reduced towards 1hr 45mins target. 

    While fixing the major holes in Central Belt infrastructure the Scottish Government has greatly increased infrastructure investment across the rest of Scotland and it underpins a policy goal of spreading economic opportunity and growth more evenly across Scotland to provide a balanced economy with good geographical distribution. 

     

    There has been huge strides forward in infrastructure post devolution and quite simply the vast majority of these schemes wouldn't have happened under direct rule, it's the difference between a SG government that sees Scotland as a nation and is building genuine intercity infrastructure North/South and East/West and the old Scottish Office who saw Scotland as not very important region.

     

    As far as the political aspect of this goes, people shouldn't underestimate the effect on voting intention that derives from the above... As long as the unionist parties remain 'branch' offices as Johan Lamont put it, they will struggle to make headway.

    Edited by skifreak
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    I hope I'm not being thick here but...would a station at Culloden not make quite a bit of sense for Inverness in terms of commuting / a potential park and ride scheme?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    I hope I'm not being thick here but...would a station at Culloden not make quite a bit of sense for Inverness in terms of commuting / a potential park and ride scheme?

     

    There's certainly been chatter about either reopening Culloden station or building a new station that could serve the Retail Park and the University of the Highlands and Islands Campus. 

     

    The plus point though for Dalcross is that within not to long of it opening it should have a half hourly service, even with the Highland Main Line Improvements which are in the pipeline it will be only have hourly trains passing Culloden. 

     

    Some sort of reconfiguration of Inverness Station to either provide through platforms on the curve from the HML / Aberdeen line to Ness Viaduct  or move the concourse of the station into Station Square and extend platforms 5 and 6 into the current concourse so trains could come in from the East/South then directly head out Northwards to create regular cross-inverness commuter services around the inner Moray Firth would be a huge win. That said the most needed thing to improve the service for the Inner Moray Firth is restoring some double track on the Far North Line between Muir of Ord and Inverness, if a train misses it's slot at present, it's an instant 40 minute delay to it and the following trains because of the entirely single track line from Ness viaduct to Muir of Ord station. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    The last of Scottish steel making to close since the industrial revolution.

    Better Together?

    Thatcher Mark 2 awaits.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Well, at the moment it's either 50.3% or 52% Yes depending on whether you want to give undue bias to one type of polling (online slightly more favours No over real telephone and door knocking random sampling).

     

    On this subject...

     

    One thing that is evidence in recent polling is that online pollsters using 2014 iref weighting - i.e. people are asked what they voted in the 2014 iref and the sample is weighted to this - consistently get lower Yes than MORI telephone (no past vote weighting of any form) and TNS doorstep sampling (2015 GE weighting only).

     

    Well, 2014 weighing would seem like a good idea - people would surely remember if and how they voted in such an important matter. I imagine they do to. Problem would only occur if people had regretted how they voted sufficiently to lie about that.

     

    Doing so might create something like this....

     

    8 x Yougov 2015 unweighted base (difference from reality / census):
    19%(+9)% rUK born
    76%(-7)% Scotland born
    5(-3)% Born elsewhere
     
    Average Yes = 45.2%
     
    Now, that's odd. A sample with heavy over-representation of people born in England (mainly) who were much more likely to have voted No (~7 in 10) - also very labour heavy / SNP light as normal for Yougov uwb - and yet it says it voted more Yes than was the case.
     
    Also:
     
    Yougov, Survation, Panelbase 2015 unweighted bases:
    46(-4)% SNP May 2015
     
    Average Yes = 48%
     
     
    So, our unweighted samples are also lower in SNP than was the case - a problem not confined to Yougov - yet at the same time also claims to have voted Yes more strongly than was the case.
     
    This quite strongly suggests there is a group of people saying they voted Yes when they actually voted No. From the CoB data, these seem to be Scottish born.
     
    Of course the net effect is that Yes is down-weighted, resulting in the poll finding lower support for indy that would otherwise have been the case.
     
    Another 2010 type weighting problem? This fell down because people consistently claimed to have voted SNP when they didn't, instead voting tactically for Lab or Lib.
     
    Would certainly go some way to explaining why online iref weighted polls show a very narrow No, yet non iref weighted polls show a modest Yes majority.
    Edited by scottish skier
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I think this, like the Human Rights legislation, should be refused.

     

    Unless Holyrood passes these into Scottish law, they will not apply in Scotland.

     

    Now in theory, Holyrood should pass them as they are not devolved matters. However, Tories have no mandate in Scotland so democratically, Holyrood could just say No and there's not really anything Westminster could do, at least not anything that wouldn't hurry along the end of the union.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34560125

     

    SNP conference 2015: Minister wants Scotland excluded from union bill
     
    The Scottish government has made an official request for Scotland to be excluded from the UK government's bill proposing curbs on trade union powers.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Go Nicola! Go SNP! 

     

    May 2016 Holyrood - 'Bring it on!'

     

    Gets my two votes.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    To be honest, I think this is exactly what will happen.

     

    It is a huge fiscal trap designed to damage Scotland as much as possible while pretending to be 'more powers'.

     

    It is not in the interests of unionist parties that Scotland is economically and socially a success because that could further the independence cause / show up the rUK.

     

    If there was not a sizeable proportion who back indy, maybe things might be different. However, as long as there is, then Scotland must not do well and unionist parties will try to damage Scotland for this purpose. It is the same the world over when a country shows interest in independence.

     

    Decent, federal type devolution will never happen. Holyrood was never meant to be anything more than a talking shop for Labour to sit in, giving jobs to prospective Westminster MPs and providing a wee haven while the Tories were in power in London. Nothing has changed for the pro-union parties. 56/59 MPs wasn't enough and neither will another SNP majority in Holyrood. Only a Yes will.

     

    https://archive.is/Ifxxb

     

    Agenda: Kill the Scotland Bill because it will never last anyway

     

    Martin Sime is chief executive of the Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations.
    Edited by scottish skier
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    https://archive.is/ol3co

     

    UN arrives in Scotland to probe 'grave' violations of disabled people's human rights by Tory welfare cuts
     
    UNITED Nations officials have arrived in Scotland to investigate allegations that Westminster welfare reforms have led to “grave or systematic violations†of disabled people’s human rights...
     
    ...The UN investigators will specifically examine whether the British government has committed "systematic and grave violations" of the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. The UK is the first country in the world to be investigated in this manner...
     
    #makesyouproud
     
     
    Sturgeon tells Scotland: the only alternative to Labour incompetence and Tory cruelty is independence
     
    THE only alternative to Labour incompetence and Tory heartlessness is Scottish independence, Nicola Sturgeon said yesterday as she sought to position the SNP as the default party of government north of the border.
     
    The First Minister said Jeremy Corbyn’s shambolic leadership had made Labour unelectable, paving the way for an era of “extreme and uncaring†Conservative rule at Westminster.
     
    What's scary about this that Sturgeon is essentially quoting Labour (e.g. Labour MPs saying the party is 'shambolic') and the Tories (e.g. Tory cabinet ministers calling Osborne 'evil' for tax credit cuts) talking about themselves.
     
    ---
     
    EDIT
     
    Comres UK Poll, Westminster intention:
    42% Con
    29% Lab
    13% UKIP
    7% Lib
    5% SNP (54% in Scotland)
    3% Green
     
    Tories retain a comfortable 7 point lead in my PoP and are up a couple of points on the GE. By contrast, Labour were about to overtake them at the same 2010 time frame.
     
    Decent sized Scottish subsample answers to these questions...
     
    For each of the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your view?
    15% Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party is united
    64% Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party is divided
     
    Of course the Tories are divided too; on Europe as always...
     
    34% David Cameron's Conservative Party is united
    46% David Cameron's Conservative Party is divided
     
    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Another Labour MSP quitting ahead of May's election. Never heard of him personally.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13882160.Labour_MSP_hailed_as__rising_star__to_quit_Holyrood/

     

    Labour MSP hailed as 'rising star' to quit Holyrood
     
    A SCOTTISH Labour MSP who had been seen as a rising star within the party has announced that he is stepping down from Holyrood.
     
    Drew Smith, who was elected as a representative for Glasgow in 2011, said it had been a privilege to serve in the Scottish Parliament but that he was keen to seek "new challenges" after May's election.
     
    Must be a lot of competition for the list from those facing potential loss of their constituencies.
     
    Yes City Glasgow Regional List is probably not one you want to be on unless you were very close to the top of it.
    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    ^He might be one of the almost 'accidental' MSPs of Labour's lists in 2011, had they not done so badly in the constituencies, people like him probably were more paper candidates than actually expecting to get elected. So it could be a genuine case of OK, that was good for 5 years, but I've got other things I want to do... or the MSPs including the sort of younger and more promising ones (ie not the Richard Bakers of this world) that Labour really needs are being sacrificed as the former Labour big-beasts at Westminster circle like vultures seeking the top of the lists! 

    Edited by skifreak
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    General situation update.

     

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-scottish-former-voters-see-party-as-irrelevant-and-part-of-the-past-a6701836.html

     

    Labour: Scottish former voters see party as 'irrelevant' and 'part of the past'
     
    Labour is now seen as “irrelevant†and “part of  the past†by voters in Scotland who have deserted the party, according to its own research into its general election defeat in May.
     
    Focus groups conducted in Edinburgh and Glasgow found that Labour was seen as “indistinguishable from the Tories†and “an incompetent version†of the them. Anger about Labour “taking Scotland for granted†for years has dissipated, but only because the party is “simply an irrelevance†which is “firmly in the past….part of the heritage.â€

     

     

    This was a long time coming. Labour peaked in the 1960's.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    General situation update.

     

     

     

    This was a long time coming. Labour peaked in the 1960's.

     

    Focus groups: says all you need to know about SLab. Must listen . . . blah, rebrand . . . blah, we've heard it all before.

     

    If even the Trade Unions are starting to rumble about leaving them then it's game over and the lady with the excess avoirdupois is already on the second verse.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    SS,

    What is your thoughts on Kezia surviving a SLAB mauling at the election next year?

    Or is she safe no matter what?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    SS,

    What is your thoughts on Kezia surviving a SLAB mauling at the election next year?

    Or is she safe no matter what?

     

    No idea. I guess it would probably be partly down to her, i.e. whether she's had enough.

     

    When a party falls from grace to become a minor force, the pressures to resign following electoral defeats lessons. It becomes the norm to lose, so the leader stops getting much blame for it.

     

    For example, Ruth Davidson led the Scottish Tories to their lowest share of the vote in a UK GE in Scotland ever, yet nobody called for her resignation.

     

    Likewise Willie Rennie oversaw the Liberals get thrashed, yet he's still there.

     

    The question is whether we consider Labour at rock bottom or whether they have further to fall.

     

    Polls suggest they could lose another 10 seats or so in May next year. If that did happen, then Kezia would be facing another big blow and might 'have to go' as a result, either pushed or, as noted, because she didn't want the job any more. If she did go, the new leader would take over a minor party and could probably last a few elections, even if they lost a few more seats slowing in future elections.

     

    ---

     

    On the focus group thing...

     

    I agree that Labour got obsessed with focus groups and all that guff. I think more their problem was not actually listening to findings!

     

    The findings of the above are potentially very important. 

     

    Labour have held onto the idea that the rise of the SNP is a temporary thing. However, the evidence suggests otherwise; both Labour and the Tories have been in long term decline in Scotland since the middle of the last century, with the yellow vote (SNP + Lib, now SNP, and to an extent lib Green etc) on the rise (actually things have come full circle since the Libs dominated pre WW1 and Scotland was moving to home rule within the empire under them). It's just that various things held off the final crash for Labour; namely FPTP Westminster elections.

     

    So, we are facing a situation where the SNP are likely to present the dominant force in Scotland for the foreseeable, with no potential for a recovery for any ostensibly 'unionist' party. This is likely to remain the state of play until the constitutional question is answered, either through devo max, or indy. With the former essentially off the table, it's the latter that will likely be the ultimate solution.

     

    So, the Leader of Labour becomes someone leading a party that is 'in the past...part of the heritage'; just like Ruth Davidson is doing, and surviving as leader despite defeats / continued long term decline.

    Edited by scottish skier
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    'One Nation, One United Kingdom'.

     

    Doing a great job at that Dave!

     

     
    Furious reaction to Draft Wales Bill as proposals for the next wave of devolution branded an 'insult to our country'
     
    First Minister Carwyn Jones cannot see how it 'could possibly pass' while Leanne Wood brands the draft Wales Bill an 'insult'
     
    The launch of Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb’s Draft Wales Bill has triggered a furious reaction from Labour and Plaid Cymru.
     
    First Minister Carwyn Jones said the measures amounted to an English veto on Welsh laws while Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood described the legislation as an “ insult to our country â€.
     
    The Welsh Labour leader blasted it as an “ill-thought out and inadequate Bill†that rowed back from what the electorate voted for in the 2011 referendum.

     

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Thanks for your answer above SS about Kezia. You are right of course, SLAB are so relatively small now that replacing their leader every time they get minced would be pointless.

     

    I know there are some on this site who deny that the mainstream media are biased against the SNP and the Yes movement. Here is yet another nugget courtesty of Wings. Why are the press allowed to print complete and utter lies and get away with it?

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/tiny-correction-watch/#more-76960

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Thanks for your answer above SS about Kezia. You are right of course, SLAB are so relatively small now that replacing their leader every time they get minced would be pointless.

     

    I know there are some on this site who deny that the mainstream media are biased against the SNP and the Yes movement. Here is yet another nugget courtesty of Wings. Why are the press allowed to print complete and utter lies and get away with it?

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/tiny-correction-watch/#more-76960

     

    Because they can! A correction or retraction may be forthcoming on an inside page of no merit written in the tiniest type face they can muster. It will be some months hence but by that time no one will be interested having moved on to the next SNP bad concoction.

     

    Besides, no one really cares about the Express - have you actually read any of their weather forecasts? Merits reporting to the TSA for those alone!  :rofl:

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    This is simultaneously LOL (for someone grabbing the cancelled twitter account), creepy (for the name SO change by UK government), and kinda incompetent (for them letting the first one happen).

     

    Scotland Office are apparently busy changing their twitter and facebook to 'UK Government for Scotland'.

     

    I just went to here:

     

    https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/scotland-office

     

    And clicked the twitter link which directed me to here:

     

    @scotlandoffice

     

    Their original twitter.

     

    Which now seems is used by a pro-indy guy to interesting effect.

     

    Don't imagine the link from the real Scotland office site will last!

     

    ---

     

    EDIT google search for 'Scotland office twitter' takes you to the now parody account.

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    This is simultaneously LOL (for someone grabbing the cancelled twitter account), creepy (for the name SO change by UK government), and kinda incompetent (for them letting the first one happen).

     

    Scotland Office are apparently busy changing their twitter and facebook to 'UK Government for Scotland'.

     

    I just went to here:

     

    https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/scotland-office

     

    And clicked the twitter link which directed me to here:

     

    @scotlandoffice

     

    Their original twitter.

     

    Which now seems is used by a pro-indy guy to interesting effect.

     

    Don't imagine the link from the real Scotland office site will last!

     

    ---

     

    EDIT google search for 'Scotland office twitter' takes you to the now parody account.

     

    It's those evil cybernasties wot did it! I can just picture Mundell ( not Mun-dell) choking on his porrage the morn

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    'UK Government for Scotland' sounds dictatorial, like the Chinese Government for Tibet.

     

    Aye. Facebook page is nicely patronising too.

     

    Scotland  = whisky, thistles and heilan coos.

     

    Just missing some Irn Bru and the Krankies.

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Welcome to the future.

     

    Scottish taxpayers money spent on 'UK' infrastructure projects in England which have additional major knock on effects for Scotland, yet votes on this fall under EVEL.

     

    That's how it will be: English Votes for Scottish Laws and English Votes for English Laws. Scottish votes won't count for anything.

     

    https://archive.is/fo1XL

     

    Chris Grayling: Scottish MPs could be barred from voting Heathrow's third runway

     

    Scottish MPs could be barred from a future vote on a third runway at Heathrow.

     

    The Leader of the House Chris Grayling said that the issue could be branded 'England-only'.
     
    His comments came just hours before a crunch vote on controversial plans for 'English votes for English laws' (evel).

     

     

    This is akin to the EU spending billions of UK contributions on a new infrastructure for France and Germany, while excluding Britain from voting on the matter.

     

    #colonialism #UKisdying

    Edited by scottish skier
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...