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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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[belatedly] Good decision Labour, but ye ken the SNP are with you on the opposition benches right?

 

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/10/labour-tensions-boil-over-fractious-mps-meeting

 

Labour tensions boil over at fractious MPs' meeting

 

...After a short speech by Jeremy Corbyn, shadow chancellor John McDonnell sought to explain his decision to oppose Osborne's fiscal charter (having supported it just two weeks ago). He cited the change in global economic conditions and the need to assist colleagues in Scotland facing the SNP.

 

 

Jeremy et al., you have big group of SNP MPs sitting right there next to you offering a hand. You used to hang out with them / vote with them in your 'opposed to trident' etc days. Whole raft of stuff both agree on. You'll not help your party by 'facing' off them and the Tories. Will likely just damage Labour more in Scotland, as your arguing with each other while we have a Tory majority is doing.

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And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

Posted Images

assist colleagues in Scotland facing the SNP

 

Grammatically incorrect, it should be 'our colleague in Scotland'. See, they can't even get that right.

 

Seriously though, Labour really are looking like they could take a very, very long time to regain any real semblance of an effective political party again, not just in Scotland, but across the UK. Not a great situation for the country, irrespective of my personal political leanings.

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...One of those games is trying to lay huge fiscal traps for the Scottish Parliament dressed up as 'new powers', when in reality what is being offered is more responsibilities (Ie costs) with less budget and a duplicitous financial settlement that will equate to Scotland paying twice, we'll pay the same level of tax as the rest of the UK, but then have to pay more on top to probably do less than stand still. IE we'll get even less pocket money back from our taxes, while much more government spending in England is moved outside Barnett Consequentials by being counted as UK spending, even though it's spent only in England - this will ultimately hit Wales and NI too.

 

The Scotland Bill has really got to the stage of being new responsibilities with no power, which is not to the letter and definitely not to the spirit of the Smith Commission let alone the infamous vow...

 

Iain, is that you?

 

https://archive.is/j6e3A

 

SNP being lured into most blatant fiscal trap in 300 years
 
otcha! Labour and the Scottish Conservatives have been laying a fiscal trap for the SNP, and yesterday it looked as if John Swinney had fallen into it.
 
Challenged on whether or not the Nationalists would reverse the UK Government's tax credit cuts, he said there was “a significant amount of doubt†about whether the future Scottish Government could in fact reverse them.
 
Mr Swinney calculates that the UK benefit reforms could lose Scottish claimants some £6 billion by 2020. This is a very large sum to find out of a fixed budget and would mean hard choices or an increase in taxes in Scotland.
 
Without control of all taxes, from corporation to VAT, and borrowing as needed - i.e. devo max or indy - it's an impossible situation and I do expect Holyrood to reject it as exactly that.
 
UK parties really do seem seem hell bent on ending the UK. They don't seem to see that in their attempts to defeat the SNP, they are trying to defeat the Scottish people; the vast majority of which back FFA and/or indy.
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Oh, and this is just ridiculous.

 

https://archive.is/G9vDn

 

Westminster agency uses Scottish fishermen's money to promote Norwegian fish
 
LEVIES paid by Scottish fishermen are being used by a UK Government quango to promote Norwegian fish.
 
The “bewildering†situation has prompted the Scottish Government to renew their calls to devolve food levies to Scotland.

 

#uniondividends #BetterTogether

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Grammatically incorrect, it should be 'our colleague in Scotland'. See, they can't even get that right.

 

Seriously though, Labour really are looking like they could take a very, very long time to regain any real semblance of an effective political party again, not just in Scotland, but across the UK. Not a great situation for the country, irrespective of my personal political leanings.

 

#PLPmeetingfarce / #Austeritycharteruturngate was being discussed on Radio Scotland.

 

Apparently, there is truth to the story that McDonnell was trying to help Labour colleagues in Scotland. Now it is colleagues, i.e. MSPs in Holyrood, i.e. ahead of next May.

 

Of course the plan is that Labour does well in Scotland as a springboard to England.

 

Ed and SLAB did the same in 2011; made a Scottish election all about Labour winning back England. That worked out well didn't it. Turned a strong vote in the 2010 UK election and big poll lead going into 2011 into an SNP landslide.

 

I really can't believe they are going to do the same again.

 

But that's Labour's problem; they don't care about Scotland/Holyrood. Only Westminster matters.

 

The still do not seem to have come to terms with the fact that everything says their time in Scotland has come to an end.

 

The two pundits on BBCRS were right; Labour should focus on winning England because unless it does that, it hasn't a hope in hell of ever regaining ground in Scotland.

 

EDIT

 

And think about it...

 

Kezia Dugdale as FM of Scotland?

 

And...wait a minute...do they even have a finance minister, never mind one that can squeeze out every penny like Swinney?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_Cabinet_(Scottish_Parliament)#Labour_Shadow_Cabinet

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/kezia-dugdale-unveils-scottish-labour-front-bench-team

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SS:

 

This is really SLab's problem. They have an absolute dearth of competant tallent , only sheep who constantly repeat SNP baaaaad. No policies, constructive or otherwise that are of any use either to Scotland or the RUk.

 

Holyrood needs decent opposition to hold decision making to account. There are major changes to budgets on the way and it will be painful, how the pain is distributed and mitigated is vitally important. All the opposition parties need to be on the ball if Scotland is to get the very best deal it possibly can.

 

Of course, I see Indy as the absolute best deal but for the time being we have to work with Westminster so we need not only a strong 55/56/57 (pick a number lol) presence but a solid pro Scotland parliament at Holyrood working for us. Endless carping and wasting Parliamentary time and resources will not endear the electorate to return to Labour and neither will total fawning to No.10 help the Conservatives.

 

I don't want a one party state, I want a genuine Scottish State run, and also held to account, by the very best brains Scotland can produce. 

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I think it's quite likely the Tories will improve their Holyrood share of MSPs in May 2016, like in 1992 the Tories are going to play the Unionist card for all it's worth - it did work then because a sizeable enough chunk of the core Unionist but non Tory vote put a clothes peg on their nose and went into the polling both and put a X beside 'Conservative and UNIONIST'.

 

As a consequence the Tories held their ground and delayed the wipeout till 1997, though that they didn't do as badly as expected in 1992 probably made a huge number of people determined to vote tactically against the Tories to make Scotland a Tory free zone in terms of MPs in 1997. I know I've gone on about it, but the Tories did not listen to John Smith in 1992 - but for those that would still like to see Scotland remain in a much reformed and federal UK, the warning is as valid today as it was then and the clock is ticking. Tick Tock.  

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Apparently, there is truth to the story that McDonnell was trying to help Labour colleagues in Scotland. Now it is colleagues, i.e. MSPs in Holyrood, i.e. ahead of next May.

 

 

But, ehm, wait a minute, I thought 'Scottish Labour' are independent of UK Labour and not just a 'branch office', or isn't that what we were being told?

 

:cc_confused:

 

They can't have it both ways...well they'll try to but people aren't that easily fooled.

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Good to see this.

 

Government and unions should work constructively together. That's the idea of social democracy.

 

https://archive.is/GTpyL

 

STUC: SNP have strengthend union bond with historic first speech
 
The SNP has strengthened its bonds with Scotland's trade union movement with an "historic" first speech at the nationalist party conference by a prominent union leader.
 
Scottish Trades Union Congress (STUC) leader Grahame Smith will appear at the SNP Conference in Aberdeen on Saturday.
 
SNP business convener Derek Mackay said his appearance was "a welcome and historic development" for the SNP, and a chance "to strengthen the bonds of solidarity between the party and Scotland's trade unions".

 

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The Scottish Government has invited bids for a £50m design contract for the dualling of (and eradication of online roundabouts on) the 30mile Auldearn to East of Fochabers stretch of the A96.  :good:

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Latest Yougov.

 

9-13 October, with changes on last month.

 

Constituency:

51(nc)% SNP

21(-1)% Lab

19(+1)% Con

5(+1)% Lib

4(-1)% Other

 

List:

45(nc)% SNP

19(+1)% Con

20(nc)% Lab

5(+1)% Lib

6(nc)% Green

3(nc)% SSP

3(nc)% UKIP

 

Tories will like Yougov. Gives lowest SNP VI of all the pollsters (under-predicted SNP% for the GE) and shows an oddly high Tory VI. Only poll doing this. No idea why.

 

For reference, Con VI in other polls is like this...

 

Pollster: Constituency, list

TNS 12%, 11%

Survation: 14%, 13%

Panelbase: 14%, 15%

MORI: 12%, 12%

 

PoP average = 14% Constituency / 14% List

 

Could be a sign of some Lab unionist to Con, but with only one poll showing it, it's more likely a quirk of methodology.

 

---

 

Also:

 

Independence referendum tomorrow.

 

52(nc)No

48(nc)Yes

 

Again Yougov are at the low end for Yes, but our statistical tie holding steady.

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My PoP averages.

 

This gives bias to online pollsters, so could be considered conservative. SNP would be higher if all three polling types were averaged equally (telephone, door chapping and online).

 

Constituency:
53% SNP
21% Lab
14% Con
6% Lib
3% Green
1% UKIP
 
List:
48% SNP
21% Lab
13% Con
6% Green
6% Lib
3% UKIP
 
As you can see, in averages, there's nothing for Ruth to get excited about. Looks exactly like 2011 for Con share.
 
EDIT Scotlandvotes seats prediction:
 
Seats
74(+5) SNP
27(-10) Lab
16(+1) Con
6(+1) Lib
6(+4) Green
 
= 62% of MSPs for pro-indy parties
 
Although it continues to hand O&S to the Libs, which is questionable now after the GE result.
 
---
 
EDIT, and I'm also PoP'ing the EUref in Scotland now.
 
My latest is :
 
68% Remain
32% Leave
 
Excluding DK.
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I see the BBC is still at this particular insidious style of bias against the SNP:  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34533955

 

When the Lib Dems where the third largest political party in the UK by membership and MPs I don't recall a leaders conference speech getting this treatment. Rather than let the public hear anything Sturgeon had to say for herself, they post a photo and give the BBC's commentary on what was said in the text. This kind of nonsense has been standard for several years, Labour, Tory and Lib Dem politicians giving set piece speeches get to speak for themselves, even when there is video of such an SNP speech online or in broadcast news, usually it's voiced over with the BBC giving a commentary of their interpretation of what was said. 

 

The BBC is a state broadcaster propaganda machine no more, no less.

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Cheers for the polling SS, any chance you could do a PoP for UK EU referendum. I'm thinking it's about 55/45 (stay/leave) for the UK as a whole but can't say I've been avidly following polls on the question thus far. Far too early really and I expect 'stay' to see a bounce on the day, can't see us leaving (obviously not Scotland anyway - from that polling)

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Cheers for the polling SS, any chance you could do a PoP for UK EU referendum. I'm thinking it's about 55/45 (stay/leave) for the UK as a whole but can't say I've been avidly following polls on the question thus far. Far too early really and I expect 'stay' to see a bounce on the day, can't see us leaving (obviously not Scotland anyway - from that polling)

 

I will probably do one and your figures are probably about right.

 

I just started a Scottish one because, while no doubt there will be UK PoPs in sites like UKPR, Scottish ones may be few and far between.

 

Right now I'm tweaking method, but the numbers I posted are an average of two recent full Scottish polls (Survation and TNS) plus an aggregate of UK poll Scottish subsets. The latter are more frequent, but need to be aggregated to become a decent indicator due to the small sample size and the fact they are not fully weighted to the Scottish demographic.

 

The interesting thing about the EU ref, is that I expect it to be very different in Scotland than in England.

 

Only England voted for an EU ref and, well, polls suggest 'Leave' has a mountain to climb in Scotland. Given no parties in Scotland are campaigning for leave bar our one UKIP MEP (who lives in London), I can't see any real campaign happening here.

 

I suspect Scotland might find itself simply watching England debate the matter. In a way, it will be a reversal of the Scottish referendum campaign!

 

We shall see anyway.

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Some more Yougov poll findings.

 

SW, turn away now.  :)

 

The Scottish Government is expected to have full control over income tax by 2017. Would you support or oppose the following?

 

Increasing the rate of income tax in Scotland, and using the money to improve public services

52% support

37% Oppose

 

SNP voters

65% Support

25% Oppose

 

Labour voters

54% Support

37% Oppose

 

Con voters

28% Support

65% Oppose

 

---

 

Cutting the rate of income tax in Scotland, funded by reducing the money spent on public services

13% support

74% Oppose

 

SNP voters

9% Support

79% Oppose

 

Labour voters

12% Support

79% Oppose

 

Con voters

25% Support

67% Oppose

 

---

 

Cutting the rate of income tax in Scotland, funded by cutting benefits and tax credits

27% Support

60% Oppose

 

SNP voters

17% Support

72% Oppose

 

Labour voters

23% Support

66% Oppose

 

Con voters

58% Support

34% Oppose

 

So, SNP voters pretty much the opposite of Con voters. Labour voters a bit more right wing than SNP, but still more on the left.

 

Interestingly, there's almost no difference between income groupings; ABC1 are almost identical to C2DE in these questions. Scotland's better off say they'd pay more for good public services and don't want tax cuts.

 

Tories are going into the 2016 election on a tax cuts manifesto. Ho-hum.

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How much, if at all, do you trust the following to tell the truth? 

 

The SNP

45% Trust a lot / fair amount

50% Not much / not at all

= -5% NET

 

Scottish Labour

25% Trust a lot / fair amount

67% Not much / not at all

= -42% NET

 

Scottish Conservatives

21% Trust a lot / fair amount

71% Not much / not at all

= -50% NET

 

Scottish Lib Dems

17% Trust a lot / fair amount

73% Not much / not at all

= -56% NET

 

Well done Carmichael!

 

Pretty impressive for the SNP given we are in the end talking about politicians...

 

 

---

 

 

And

 


Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.

 

'X Party X' these days gives the impression of being very sleazy and disreputable

 

SNP

56% Disagree

29% Agree

= +27% NET

 

Scottish Lib Dems

44% Disagree

29% Agree

= +15% NET

 

Scottish Conservatives

44% Disagree

38% Agree

= +6% NET

 

Scottish Labour

41% Disagree

38% Agree

= +3% NET

 

Interesting on the Lib Dems. They're not seen as sleazy; just not to be trusted. Ooch for Labour to be seen as more sleazy and corrupt than the Tories.

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What consistent polling results do people think would give the SNP confidence in winning another referendum?

 

If we look at the last referendum there was a big increase in support over the campaign but would it be right to assume the same would happen again?

 

I suppose its difficult to calculate how much of that was due to engagement by the public versus the underwhelming Better Together campaign.

 

In terms of red lines for voters  how much is Trident, lets say for arguments sake Scotland was offered full Devo Max but Trident to remain?

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What consistent polling results do people think would give the SNP confidence in winning another referendum?

 

If we look at the last referendum there was a big increase in support over the campaign but would it be right to assume the same would happen again?

 

I suppose its difficult to calculate how much of that was due to engagement by the public versus the underwhelming Better Together campaign.

 

In terms of red lines for voters  how much is Trident, lets say for arguments sake Scotland was offered full Devo Max but Trident to remain?

 

Well, at the moment it's either 50.3% or 52% Yes depending on whether you want to give undue bias to one type of polling (online slightly more favours No over real telephone and door knocking random sampling).

 

I think they'd be looking at 55%.... Sustained too. 

 

And they'd base this on their own polling rather than public polling as they shouldn't be hostage to potential bad polling. This is done, e.g. by push polling questions at the request of clients.

 

I also think a decent trigger would still be used though, e.g. Brexit, new powers far from what was wanted....

 

I think if we have another iref, it will be much more of a formality too. Certainly a UK brexit could make it like that. Short and sweet -  all over.

 

I don't know about a last minute surge. My feeling is that >60% yes is readily achievable and that wouldn't be a big leap from 55%.

 

No have been basically losing 5% per year since 2012 when the Edinburgh agreement was signed. 65%, 60%, 55% now 50%... that can't go all the way to 0% but if the trend continues, we could enter Yes majority territory consistently quite soon.

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Well, at the moment it's either 50.3% or 52% Yes depending on whether you want to give undue bias to one type of polling (online slightly more favours No over real telephone and door knocking random sampling).

 

I think they'd be looking at 55%.... Sustained too. 

 

And they'd base this on their own polling rather than public polling as they shouldn't be hostage to potential bad polling. This is done, e.g. by push polling questions at the request of clients.

 

I also think a decent trigger would still be used though, e.g. Brexit, new powers far from what was wanted....

 

I think if we have another iref, it will be much more of a formality too. Certainly a UK brexit could make it like that. Short and sweet -  all over.

 

I don't know about a last minute surge. My feeling is that >60% yes is readily achievable and that wouldn't be a big leap from 55%.

I think I'd be inclined to get to 60+ % consistently in the polls. Of course other things might well drive a quicker referendum like an EU exit. I would have thought another 5 years of the Tories should easily drive that poll over 60%!

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I think I'd be inclined to get to 60+ % consistently in the polls. Of course other things might well drive a quicker referendum like an EU exit. I would have thought another 5 years of the Tories should easily drive that poll over 60%!

 

I'd agree, 60% is not only enough to say "look, opinion has changed substantially", but it also gives a 'buffer' against last minute second thoughts.

 

Not sure myself about a brexit or such triggering a new referendum unless we're absolutely sure that the effect will be to increase the Yes vote. People are complicated, they may vote to stay in the EU, but the UK dragging them out may not automatically make them want to split from the UK.

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I'd agree, 60% is not only enough to say "look, opinion has changed substantially", but it also gives a 'buffer' against last minute second thoughts.

 

Not sure myself about a brexit or such triggering a new referendum unless we're absolutely sure that the effect will be to increase the Yes vote. People are complicated, they may vote to stay in the EU, but the UK dragging them out may not automatically make them want to split from the UK.

 

Past polling did show support for independence increase at the prospect of an EU Brexit.

 

However, it's not leaving the EU that would likely trigger a move to independence specifically - an iScotland could happily be like Norway for example - but leaving the protection the EU offers from the Tories into an isolated English Tory/UKIP world of no human rights / workers rights. Want another iref? Dream on - outside the EU Britain doesn't need to be democratic.

 

Being part of the EU is intricately linked to the Scotland Act and Devolution. If you want to risk Holyrood, vote to leave the EU as part of the UK.

 

That argument is by far the strongest card and it will be played come the time.

 

EUref: Want to protect devolution? Vote Yes to the EU!

 

Scottish iref after a Brexit where Scotland voted to remain in the EU: Want to protect Holyrood? Vote Yes to independence!

 

It's why I would never consider voting to leave the EU as long as Scotland remains part of the UK.

 

I might be persuaded to leave the EU under Scottish independence, mainly from a left of centre perspective like Norway. Depends on stuff like TTIP etc...

 

---

 

EDIT

 

Folk should remember that Britain has a very poor track record when it comes to democracy and is not adverse to using violence to suppress it as we know from its colonial behaviour within living memory. The EU has pressured it into reforms in this area; devolution for Scotland + Wales and N. Ireland through the peace process being the obvious examples. 

 

This should be remembered. Holyrood is intimately linked to EU membership.

 

http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/british-withdrawal-eu-existential-threat-united-kingdom

 

In conclusion, a British exit from the EU risks undermining the very self-determination and national sovereignty that its adherents believe it will bring about. This is because it risks shattering the fragile balance and stability of the UK by threatening the peace settlement in Northern Ireland and raises the possibility of a further independence referendum in Scotland. Surely such constitutional risks are not to be taken on lightly? But at present, there is little indication that anyone calling for an EU exit is giving them much thought.

 

 

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