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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    That was the problem. The Vow was vague and the Better Together campaign did not say exactly what it meant.

    For me, it meant FFA as it did for many more.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Genuine question, as I know far less about the Independence issue than many on here.

    Which specific promises haven't been kept? Also was there a timescale for when these were supposed to be implemented?

     

    The no campaign promised Scotland getting:

     

    Devo Max (e.g. Alistair Darling)

    Devo Super Max (BT rep on TV debate)

    As close to federalism as is possible (e.g. Gordon Brown)

     

    For example. Either way, what is finally being offered doesn't even match with post -iref smith agreement devo nano. Even the Scottish Tories (who sit on the committee) have agreed with that:

     

    http://m.heraldscotland.com/politics/13718894.Scottish_Parliamentary_committee__Scotland_Bill_still_falling_short_of_Smith_Commission_recommendations/

     

    Scottish Parliamentary committee: Scotland Bill still falling short of Smith Commission recommendations

     

     

    Ultimately, it is the court of public opinion which matters most.

     

    Yougov Poll:

     

    Before the referendum on Scottish independence the Labour party, Conservative party and Liberal Democrats vowed to give increased powers to the Scottish government if the Scottish people voted NO. To what extent, if at all, do you think they have delivered on this vow?

     
    9% Delivered completely
    26% Delivered partly
     
    30% Delivered very little
    22% Have not delivered at all
     

    So that's only 9% thinking they've delivered completely, with 53% saying they've delivered little to nothing.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, by @UKElect SNP 71 +3 LAB 26 -12 CON 24 +9 GRN 5 +3 LD 3 -2 IND 0 -1

     

    http://ukgeneralelection2020.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/uk-elect-scottish-parliament-forecast.html

     

    Torys to make gains in Scottish Parliament? 

     

    Not from polling they aren't. At best standing still.

     

    That site is weirdly only using one Yougov poll which had the Tories oddly a bit high.

     

    They are 13-14% like 2011 right now.

     

    Hence they couldn't even take Ayr East which they should really have walked under STV-PR in a by election. Was theirs for the taking on a red velvet cushion with gold trimmings and trumpets playing. SNP won on second preferences which was very impressive.

     

    The mythical Scottish Tory comeback has always been 'just over the horizon' for ~56 years since they started to go into decline in 1959.

     

    I think they might get lucky and take some blairites from Labour in May, so could squeeze another seat or two though. 9 seems a long shot based on polls which are very steady on average.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

    The no campaign promised Scotland getting:

     

    Devo Max (e.g. Alistair Darling)

    Devo Super Max (BT rep on TV debate)

    As close to federalism as is possible (e.g. Gordon Brown)

     

    For example. Either way, what is finally being offered doesn't even match with smith agreement devo nano. Even the Scottish Tories (who sit on the committee) have agreed with that:

     

    http://m.heraldscotland.com/politics/13718894.Scottish_Parliamentary_committee__Scotland_Bill_still_falling_short_of_Smith_Commission_recommendations/

     

    Scottish Parliamentary committee: Scotland Bill still falling short of Smith Commission recommendations

     

    Ultimately, it is the court of public opinion which matters most.

     

    Survation Poll:

     

    Before the referendum on Scottish independence the Labour party, Conservative party and Liberal Democrats vowed to give increased powers to the Scottish government if the Scottish people voted NO. To what extent, if at all, do you think they have delivered on this vow?

     

    9% Delivered completely

    26% Delivered partly

     

    30% Delivered very little

    22% Have not delivered at all

     

    So that's only 9% thinking they've delivered completely, with 53% saying they've delivered little to nothing.

    Thanks SS.

    I (maybe incorrectly) assume that the 53% are broadly those who support independence as the percentages are very similar to those in the latest polls.

    Not trying to be provocative but do you think there's anything the UK Government could do that would satisfy the Inde supporters?

    Just a final point, as a not particularly well informed southerner, I do value your input on this forum as I've learnt a lot about the dynamics at play in Scottish Politics.

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    Posted
  • Location: glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters hot summers
  • Location: glasgow

    The no campaign promised Scotland getting:

     

    Devo Max (e.g. Alistair Darling)

    Devo Super Max (BT rep on TV debate)

    As close to federalism as is possible (e.g. Gordon Brown)

     

    For example. Either way, what is finally being offered doesn't even match with post -iref smith agreement devo nano. Even the Scottish Tories (who sit on the committee) have agreed with that:

     

     

    Ultimately, it is the court of public opinion which matters most.

     

    Survation Poll:

     

    Before the referendum on Scottish independence the Labour party, Conservative party and Liberal Democrats vowed to give increased powers to the Scottish government if the Scottish people voted NO. To what extent, if at all, do you think they have delivered on this vow?

     
    9% Delivered completely
    26% Delivered partly
     
    30% Delivered very little
    22% Have not delivered at all
     

    So that's only 9% thinking they've delivered completely, with 53% saying they've delivered little to nothing.

     

    further  , to quote former labour mp and no supporter eric joyce 

     

     

     

     

     

    Scots voted No, in the end, on a ‘vow’ of greater devolution. Every Scot I have spoken to understands that the promised transfer of power can only take place if the books are balanced and Scots no longer legislate on England-only matters; this is manifestly part of the deal. If the UK government, Tory or Labour, reneges on it then the referendum result will have been fraudulent and founded upon a lie that won’t fly.

     

    I, and others in the No camp with me, believe Scots are best within the union. I am glad that Scots voted No. But if we were lied to and the government of the day reneges on â€˜The Vow’, the vote was a fraud and the UK is corrupted beyond repair.

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-lie-wont-fly/#more-61925

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Thanks SS.

    I (maybe incorrectly) assume that the 53% are broadly those who support independence as the percentages are very similar to those in the latest polls.

    Not trying to be provocative but do you think there's anything the UK Government could do that would satisfy the Inde supporters?

    Just a final point, as a not particularly well informed southerner, I do value your input on this forum as I've learnt a lot about the dynamics at play in Scottish Politics.

     

    I can have a look at the breakdowns, but yes, probably like that with the 9% who think everything has been delivered being mainly strongly pro-UK Tory voters.

     

    A proper form of confederalism where the UK is more like the EU and Scotland is essentially independent within it is likely the only hope long term of reversing the slow direction of travel. Even then, things like an EU Brexit throws a spanner in the works if the votes either side of the border are greatly at odds.

     

    Thanks. Sensible, polite questions get sensible, polite answers.

     

    EDIT, my bad, the poll was Yougov, not Survation:

     

    Vow deliverance by 2014 iref vote: 

     

    2014 Yes voters
    0% Delivered completely
    9% Delivered partly
    41% Delivered very little
    44% Have not delivered at all
    5% DK
     
    2014 No Voters
    17% Delivered completely
    42% Delivered partly
    23% Delivered very little
    4% Have not delivered at all
    15% DK
     
    So even No voters not overly impressed.
     
    Yougov are also one of the worst pollsters for the SNP and Yes historically.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Which specific promises haven't been kept? Also was there a timescale for when these were supposed to be implemented?

    According to Gordon Brown, most promises contained in the '.VOW'  would be in the process of being implemented from January of this year.........

     

    I have posted this link for you which might explain things a little better.  It's coming up for a year now but you will get the gist. :)

     

    http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/smith-commission-falls-short-of-devolution-vow/

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, by @UKElect SNP 71 +3 LAB 26 -12 CON 24 +9 GRN 5 +3 LD 3 -2 IND 0 -1

     

    http://ukgeneralelection2020.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/uk-elect-scottish-parliament-forecast.html

     

    Torys to make gains in Scottish Parliament? 

     

    We're getting close to a point where the Tories can gain seats at the expense of Labour on the regional lists without the Tory vote share increasing, simply due to the scale of the Labour collapse. That might very well bring out the usual vote 'SNP - and the Tories will eat your babies' type of campaign from Labour!

     

    If we get to such a point it also becomes easier for the SNP to win more list seats, where the SNP is doing very strongly in the constituency vote it's very hard for the SNP to get their first list seat, but when they do, the additional number of votes required to get a 2nd or 3rd list seat is much less because the quota divisor going from 8seats +1 (9) to 9 seats +1 (10) is much small jump than 1 seat + 1 (2) to 2 seats +1 (3).

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    And a 'Labour and Tories will eat your babies' campaign from the SNP? :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    And a 'Labour and Tories will eat your babies' campaign from the SNP? :D

     

    If they did that, they'd not do well in elections!

     

    They use positive campaigning primarily, hence their increasing success in the longer term.

     

    Heavily negative campaigning can help you not lose in the short term, but greatly damages you, as we saw in the General Election after the iref. The 'winners' of the iref got utterly thrashed, with that likely to carry over into the next Scottish election if polls are close to correct.

     

    EDIT

     

    In fact it was last minute postive campagining that may well have secured a win for No.

     

    Slide19.jpg

     

    You can see the effect of negative campaigning from No vs positive from Yes over the course of the campaign. Really was some lead to lose. >60% Yes would have solidly put the matter to bed and was Darling's stated aim early on. 65% No in 2012 was the peak (not shown).

     

    The last minute reversal (which you can see developing, although this doesn't include a few even later polls) occurs with the sudden switch to the positive 'Vow' for more powers / federalism / devo max, which we may yet discover could have been in part driven by illegal postal vote counting by the pro-union side. The Crown Office are currently marking the Police Scotland report on the latter, and we should have an answer within a few weeks.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: The Garden of England
  • Weather Preferences: A large kack of heavy cloud
  • Location: The Garden of England

    Hope over Fear rally today in George Square (organised by Tommy Sheridan et al):

    hopeoverfear.jpg

    'Union Day' Rally yesterday, same location.

    unionday3.jpg

    And if there was another referendum tomorrow it would be the same result. Edited by Dougal
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    And if there was another referendum tomorrow it would be the same result.

     

    Possibly.

     

    Polls say it would be a narrow Yes though (about 52%).

     

    This longer term trend continues:

     

    Slide19.jpg

     

    Let's call it 50(+5)/50(-5) right now.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Sheesh, that too a lot of catching up, and only from yesterday as this thread seems to 'have gone off on one' in the last 24hrs.

    Anyway,did I miss something? Have the SNP now published a date for a new independence referendum? Short of that, have they even published a set of conditions that they think should trigger a new referendum? If they have done neither then the reality is that much of the bluster of the last few pages of this thread is utterly pointless.

    If or when they do, then feel free to moan about 'too soon', 'anti democratic', 'keep asking the question until they get the answer they want'.

    P.S. In the spirt of clairvoyance that this thread seems to have embraced (and at the risk of getting banned for being off topic), I'd hereby like to congratulate the Scotland team on winning the 2015 Rugby World Cup.

    Edited by Ravelin
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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Why are the majority so silent?

    Very strange.

    They arrived a later on though apparently..........

     

    https://www.facebook.com/672305806/videos/10152250111860807/?fref=nf

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    Posted
  • Location: The Garden of England
  • Weather Preferences: A large kack of heavy cloud
  • Location: The Garden of England

    Sheesh, that too a lot of catching up, and only from yesterday as this thread seems to 'have gone off on one' in the last 24hrs.

    Anyway,did I miss something? Have the SNP now published a date for a new independence referendum? Short of that, have they even published a set of conditions that they think should trigger a new referendum? If they have done neither then the reality is that much of the bluster of the last few pages of this thread is utterly pointless.

    If or when they do, then feel free to moan about 'too soon', 'anti democratic', 'keep asking the question until they get the answer they want'.

    P.S. In the spirt of clairvoyance that this thread seems to have embraced (and at the risk of getting banned for being off topic), I'd hereby like to congratulate the Scotland team on winning the 2015 Rugby World Cup.

    ...with a last gasp 51-49 win over England!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    They arrived a later on though apparently..........

     

    https://www.facebook.com/672305806/videos/10152250111860807/?fref=nf

     

    Aye, the tiny minority 'loyalist British' know how to cause trouble. I'm starting to tire of the English-Irish 'war' continuing to spill over into Scotland.

     

    I still don't get why they want to damage their own cause though; makes no sense to me. Their actions helped boost the SNP post iref in a huge way.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    I mean seriously, can anyone show me a political comparison where the losers turn out in greater numbers than the victors so often?

    Why can't the victorious No campaign get a packed George Square?

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    Posted
  • Location: The Garden of England
  • Weather Preferences: A large kack of heavy cloud
  • Location: The Garden of England

    I mean seriously, can anyone show me a political comparison where the losers turn out in greater numbers than the victors so often?

    Why can't the victorious No campaign get a packed George Square?

    Maybe half the people in that picture voted 'No' and are too ashamed to tell anybody.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Maybe half the people in that picture voted 'No' and are too ashamed to tell anybody.

     

    Glasgow voted Yes in majority, so statistically...

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Yes bikers.

     

    I'll forgive them this time  :)

     

    https://www.facebook.com/martin.monaghan.507/videos/1145909102090307/

    Ah....perhaps that explains the group of I think  about 50 or so in our town yesterday.   They were all parked up at the side of the road.

    Had me wondering where they were all headed.   Must have been a big meet up somewhere before heading to Glasgow today.

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