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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    One thing that has been made abundantly clear not just wrt the referendum, but more generally, is that Social Media can give a very false impression of overall public opinion. When you live half your life on social media it's very easy to think it is representative of reality. But it isn't. It is made up of a very particular set of demographics. Believing it to be a good indicator of where the majority lies is an exercise in self-delusion.

     

    Agree very much with this, Perception at its best. 

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon

    Democracy is about having a free and fair vote. It's a little unfair if an election/referendum is won based upon lies. Can you honestly say hand on heart that all the promises made by the unionist politicians in the run up to the referendum have been kept?

    You're saying the electorate who voted NO were fooled. I don't treat the electorate like that - the electorate, all of them not just Yes voters, are pretty savvy.

    Have the promises been kept? I think a reasonable case can be made out they have, or will be.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon

    Devonian is arguing that a political party winning a democratic election in a democracy and implementing a manifesto commitment to give the electorate more say is undemocratic.

    I said no such thing, you are putting words in my mouth.

     

    It's a nonsensical argument. Support for IndyRefs has always been substantially higher than actual support for indy, in other words even a sizeable portion of people who are completely committed to voting no, want to be asked the question.

    Asked again...And, while you may not, I put actual, counted votes first.

    Scot Nats dismiss and reject the result of the referendum.

    There was a long and exhaustive campaign. The people voted. The result was clear and decisive. But it wasn't the kind of democracy you nats like so you want it done again so the 'right' result can be obtained. Yet they have the brass neck to try and present it up as democracy!

    Edited by Devonian
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    You're saying the electorate who voted NO were fooled. I don't treat the electorate like that - the electorate, all of them not just Yes voters, are pretty savvy.

    Have the promises been kept? I think a reasonable case can be made out they have, or will be.

     

    So Gordon Brown's "home rule" is being delivered? "The Vow", in its entirety is being delivered? Welfare safe in the union is being delivered? NHS safe in the union is being delivered? I don't see it :(

     

    I do think that many of the electorate were fooled and "warned" into voting NO. If this was simply hardcore nationalistic delusion then we'd be seeing support for the SNP ebbing away and support for independence dwindling. The fact that support for the SNP is running at 55-60% and that support for independence does seem to be hardening and becoming a majority view indicates that the electorate see things similarly to me. If we get to a point six months, a year or five years from now where support for the SNP falls away to 25% and support for independence ebbs back to 35% then we can assume the electorate are saying "look we're not interested", but this is not the case.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ancrum
  • Weather Preferences: HOT SUNSHINE!
  • Location: Ancrum

    You're right Catch, sooner or later we're going to vote with our feet and walk away. Just wish it had happened earlier but then things all happen when the time is right :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    So Gordon Brown's "home rule" is being delivered? "The Vow", in its entirety is being delivered? Welfare safe in the union is being delivered? NHS safe in the union is being delivered? I don't see it :(

     

    I do think that many of the electorate were fooled and "warned" into voting NO. If this was simply hardcore nationalistic delusion then we'd be seeing support for the SNP ebbing away and support for independence dwindling. The fact that support for the SNP is running at 55-60% and that support for independence does seem to be hardening and becoming a majority view indicates that the electorate see things similarly to me. If we get to a point six months, a year or five years from now where support for the SNP falls away to 25% and support for independence ebbs back to 35% then we can assume the electorate are saying "look we're not interested", but this is not the case.

     

    Which is exactly why a rush to a new referendum is nonsensical. You'd end up running it again every time the wind changed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I think another reason is they could have been bullied out or felt they have been. I have seen posts on here that sail very close to the wind of obnoxiousness. Been accused of a troll or a reptile or replies given with pure arrogance, don't bring this thread into a good light.

    And I don't accept they need to develop a thick skin.

     

    Polling on this subject shows that supporters of independence suffer more abuse / bullying from unionists than the other way around. Online, supporters of independence are twice as likely to have suffered abuse; 20% compared to 11% for No voters.

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-abusers-and-the-abused/

     

    Not the first poll to show this; a previous one for the Daily Mail found the same.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    So Gordon Brown's "home rule" is being delivered? "The Vow", in its entirety is being delivered? Welfare safe in the union is being delivered? NHS safe in the union is being delivered? I don't see it :(

     

    I do think that many of the electorate were fooled and "warned" into voting NO. If this was simply hardcore nationalistic delusion then we'd be seeing support for the SNP ebbing away and support for independence dwindling. The fact that support for the SNP is running at 55-60% and that support for independence does seem to be hardening and becoming a majority view indicates that the electorate see things similarly to me. If we get to a point six months, a year or five years from now where support for the SNP falls away to 25% and support for independence ebbs back to 35% then we can assume the electorate are saying "look we're not interested", but this is not the case.

     

    Latest Yougov poll has 9% saying they believe more devolution has been fully delivered. 52% say very little or nothing at all has been delivered and they're correct on this.

    One thing that has been made abundantly clear not just wrt the referendum, but more generally, is that Social Media can give a very false impression of overall public opinion. When you live half your life on social media it's very easy to think it is representative of reality. But it isn't. It is made up of a very particular set of demographics. Believing it to be a good indicator of where the majority lies is an exercise in self-delusion.

     

    This is why we discuss polling data.

     

    It now shows a narrow majority back full independence (when averaged out) for the first time since 1997.

     

    Averaging the three different types of polling (online, telephone and door knocking) gives 52% Yes / 48% No based on 5 polls from 5 different pollsters (MORI, TNS, Survation, Yougov and Panelbase).

     

    A decent proportion of this ongoing movement to Yes may simply be due to demographic changes. The electorate has gained ~60,000 new voters who are more pro-Yes (young people) and lost around the same who are more pro-No (the elderly) since September 2014. That and the Tory majority of course, coupled by non-delivery of devo max even though a majority voted for that in May (51.4% for pro-independence parties).

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Polling on this subject shows that supporters of independence suffer more abuse / bullying from unionists than the other way around. Online, supporters of independence are twice as likely to have suffered abuse; 20% compared to 11% for No voters.

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-abusers-and-the-abused/

     

    Not the first poll to show this; a previous one for the Daily Mail found the same.

     

    The post you quoted and indeed others today are talking about this thread, not elsewhere. All that's being asked is for people to show a bit more humility and respect on all sides of the debate, not sure why that requires a tribal like response finger pointing at the 'other side'. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The post you quoted and indeed others today are talking about this thread, not elsewhere. All that's being asked is for people to show a bit more humility and respect on all sides of the debate, not sure why that requires a tribal like response finger pointing at the 'other side'. 

     

    I was just posting factual polling data relevant to the general topic. Second time in two days mods have called me on that.

     

    If you want, I can go back through the thread and quote you loads of abuse pro-independence supporters have received on here. All standard stuff like 'anti-english' , nazis etc. Goes right back to the beginning.

     

    However, overall I find the other threads on this forum far more heavy going / abusive than this one. The immigration topics for example are extremely heated; clearly a very divisive topic in some parts of the UK.

     

    In contrast, I think if you asked most people posting on this thread you'd find they are happy enough with it.

     

    It seems to me the ones making complaints (notably today) are the ones who rarely if ever post on it, presumably due them not being registered to vote in Scotland.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    You mean like this?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-34277913

    The sentiments expressed therein may not be universal, but as I have often pointed out, Holyrood is to rural Scotland what - some argue - Westminster is to Scotland.

     

     

    The other part of that particular ongoing story is that the Westminster Government kept an EU 'equalisation' grant that was specifically for Scotland and dispersed it across rUK. This grant was around 1/4 billion £s and occurred because under the CAP, Scotland get's the least support of any area of the EU. Why did this come about, well it was part of the 'price worth paying' for the UK rebate and opt-outs, but the discrepancy had become so big it triggered 'equalisation' payments to reduce the size of the gap.

     

    Funnily enough it's people from outside the area or those who've moved into remote areas from elsewhere in the UK who seem much more likely to argue this point about Holyrood being equally remote as Westminster. I only know a tiny handful of people who live in the Highlands that feel that way, they are all either English or lived much of their adult life in England, before retiring here. That suggests it's less to do with the reality of Holyrood vs Westminster government, and more do with either:

     

    A) That they strongly support the Union and/or...

    B) They didn't actually live in Scotland pre Holyrood - so can't genuinely compare Holyrood to direct Westminster rule.

     

    Highlands and Islands MSPs make up 12% of the Holyrood Parliament compared to 1% of the Westminster Parliament. The local MSM in this part of the world is strongly anti SNP, the P&J is very pro Union and pro Tory. If as Essan you live elsewhere but spend a fair bit of time in the North of Scotland, you would get the impression from the MSM that Holyrood is hated here and no-one would vote SNP here.... of course the reality is very different to the parallel universe occupied by the MSM in Scotland.

     

    As an aside, the P&J survives simply because it is localised, though it has always been a poor impression of it's former self prior to the long running industrial dispute where the right wing Tory backing Aberdeen Journals sought to drive union representation out of their company and sacked all union members in 1989.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    From the climate forum it's already clear that you are wholly incapable of behaving like an adult.

     

    Once again.. Can we please keep discussion respectable and in-line with the Forum guidelines! It's this sort of bickering point scoring nonsense that's not acceptable.  

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters hot summers
  • Location: glasgow

    I think another reason is they could have been bullied out or felt they have been. I have seen posts on here that sail very close to the wind of obnoxiousness. Been accused of a troll or a reptile or replies given with pure arrogance, don't bring this thread into a good light.

    And I don't accept they need to develop a thick skin.

     

    If this post is refering to me , i take back absolutely zilch zero nothing i have said within this thread to any member. I have said it openly honestly and with 100 per cent genuine belief.

     

    You and i have had a couple of words in the time i have been on this forum and the obvious dislike you appear to show for me is , i can assure you , a mutual feeling.

     

    This whole thread at the minute appears to be one big " boo hoo independance isnt going away we dont like it rattle out pram. " 

     

    The scottish people will decide collectively when and if their is another or many other independance referendums , not netweather forum members.

     

    Devonian is one of a small number of forum members who i believe come on this thread purely to troll. I make that statement purely by the fact , and you are free to check back on this thread , that i have attempted , along with many others , to engage in robust healthy but respectfull debate with him and it is rarely reciprocated.

     

    I done expect devonian to agree with me  , but when he consistently posts obtuse meaningless or downright ridiculous posts you are left with the option of ignoring him or taking the mick. 

     

    I disagree with forum members for example like essan on the subject of independance but have had many enjoyable debates with him and would like to think he is made  more than welcome to post his views on this thread and i bear him absolutely no ill will whatsoever. It is after all the interweb and im pretty sure the majority of us dont need our mammies to hold our wee hands.

     

    Feel free to report any of my posts you feel is out of order , let the mods deal with it , and i am more than happy to take my medicine.

     

    While i am allowed  , within forum rules , to post as i see fit , then i fully intend to speak my mind on the topic of this thread. Too bad if you  do not like it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    I was just posting factual polling data relevant to the general topic. Second time in two days mods have called me on that.

     

    If you want, I can go back through the thread and quote you loads of abuse pro-independence supporters have received on here. All standard stuff like 'anti-english' , nazis etc. Goes right back to the beginning.

     

    However, overall I find the other threads on this forum far more heavy going / abusive than this one. The immigration topics for example are extremely heated; clearly a very divisive topic in some parts of the UK.

     

    In contrast, I think if you asked most people posting on this thread you'd find they are happy enough with it.

     

    It seems to me the ones making complaints (notably today) are the ones who rarely if ever post on it, presumably due them not being registered to vote in Scotland.

    Let's get things straight once and for all as you simply don't want to let it drop and follow forum team requests. You were pulled up, by me, yesterday for posting polling data that was NOT relevant the thread in question...and I specifically asked you to clarify via pm to me any points you weren't sure on...by posting again publicly on this issue you have shown a blatant disregard and disrespect for the forum team, and this simply is not on.

    Your point about the majority being happy with this thread is disengenuous, as the vast majority of posters are pro Indy, people who have opposing views are ignored or dismissef, disrespectfully in a lot of cases, a perfect example of where one of your factual polls would not paint a true reflection.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    I said no such thing, you are putting words in my mouth.

     

    Asked again...And, while you may not, I put actual, counted votes first.

    Scot Nats dismiss and reject the result of the referendum.

    There was a long and exhaustive campaign. The people voted. The result was clear and decisive. But it wasn't the kind of democracy you nats like so you want it done again so the 'right' result can be obtained. Yet they have the brass neck to try and present it up as democracy!

     

    There will be another referendum when Scottish voters elect a party or parties to government with a proposal to hold one in their manifesto. You don't live here, you don't have a vote and Scotland is not a possession of the UK nor England, so you don't get to say what Scotland can or can't vote for. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    In terms of thread balance...

     

    The other thing to remember is that while a majority voted No in September, enthusiasm for the union is very low.

     

    ~7/10 would vote for devo max / all but indy tomorrow, with polls suggested a narrow majority now back full independence.

     

    Polling also shows only 18% would vote to join the union today (Panelbase) if Scotland was already independent. Most of these are over 65.

     

    It's in that 18% (SSAS survey long term average 17% that see themselves as British rather than Scottish if forced to choose) that you are likely to find people enthusiastic enough to post on forums and simple forced of numbers means they're going to be heavily outnumbered.

     

    ---

     

    EDIT

     

    Think I'll return discussion returns to Scottish politics rather than being a thread about a thread / folks calm down like Ed Stone says.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Calm it down, peeps; patience is starting to wear thin!

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    <Snip>

     

    While i am allowed  , within forum rules , to post as i see fit , then i fully intend to speak my mind on the topic of this thread. Too bad if you  do not like it.

     

    The fact is, that your post breaks the forum guidelines - as calling someone a troll is name calling, and shows a lack of respect for that poster. So I suggest you re-read the guidelines, and then practice what you're preaching - eg report posts you think are outside the guidlines, and keep your own posts within them.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    There will be another referendum when Scottish voters elect a party or parties to government with a proposal to hold one in their manifesto. You don't live here, you don't have a vote and Scotland is not a possession of the UK nor England, so you don't get to say what Scotland can or can't vote for. 

     

    Indeed but regardless, he and others are perfectly entitled to voice an opinion with the expectation of having that opinion respected. 

     

    I was just posting factual polling data relevant to the general topic. Second time in two days mods have called me on that.

     

    If you want, I can go back through the thread and quote you loads of abuse pro-independence supporters have received on here. All standard stuff like 'anti-english' , nazis etc. Goes right back to the beginning.

     

    However, overall I find the other threads on this forum far more heavy going / abusive than this one. The immigration topics for example are extremely heated; clearly a very divisive topic in some parts of the UK.

     

    In contrast, I think if you asked most people posting on this thread you'd find they are happy enough with it.

     

    It seems to me the ones making complaints (notably today) are the ones who rarely if ever post on it, presumably due them not being registered to vote in Scotland.

     

    I'm not entirely sure what your issue is - we're asking people to keep to the forum guidelines, where is the problem with that? The fact is that the feedback I and others in the team have been getting over a good period of time is that some people have been intimidated in here by some of the posts, that is clearly not ideal I'm sure you'd agree. So we're asking everyone to step back a touch and ensure that all members feel they can take part and voice their opinions without fear of being unreasonably jumped on. 

     

    I think it's a completely reasonable expectation, and  I'm sure if you ask the majority of the people on the forum, including those taking part in this thread they'd go along with that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    In response to NickR's post about social media not being representative: The reason why Yes dominated online and social media to the extent that it does, is because it does accurately reflect the demographics that dominate such platforms.

     

    Over 65s are the only age group pro Union, but it's not that people become pro union as they get older - actually the historical evidence is that the personal direction of travel is much more likely to be in the other direction. Indeed if we were to go back 25 years, it would be the 40 to 60 group that was most 'British' and pro-union, after which Scottish NatID increased with age.

    Edited by Paul
    Removed the personal stuff - please report posts you think are an issue.
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     

    I'm not entirely sure what your issue is - we're asking people to keep to the forum guidelines, where is the problem with that? The fact is that the feedback I and others in the team have been getting over a good period of time is that some people have been intimidated in here by some of the posts, that is clearly not ideal I'm sure you'd agree. So we're asking everyone to step back a touch and ensure that all members feel they can take part and voice their opinions without fear of being unreasonably jumped on. 

     

    I think it's a completely reasonable expectation, and  I'm sure if you ask the majority of the people on the forum, including those taking part in this thread they'd go along with that. 

     

    I totally agree with you. 

     

    I know, I had to complain in the past about being abused on this thread myself. The person concerned was eventually banned by the forum mods.

     

    I'm putting a few who intimidate / are abusive or contribute very little to the discussion on 'ignore' and shall to do exactly that. 

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Have the promises been kept? I think a reasonable case can be made out they have, or will be.

     

    The promises in the Vow and made by Gordon Brown in an extended live broadcast speech just before the referendum are seen as having been honoured by only 9% of Scottish voters. 

     

    As for arguing a reasonable case can be made that they promises have been kept - well perhaps from where you are sitting that might appear so given the the MSM bias. However the constitutional debate isn't just a few years old, it's generations old in Scotland and the terms, Home Rule, DevoMax and Full Fiscal Autonomy aren't really up for interpretation - they have very long established and specific meaning in the Scottish Constitutional debate and the Scotland Bill currently before parliament comes not even remotely close to that.

     

    he result was clear and decisive. But it wasn't the kind of democracy you nats like so you want it done again so the 'right' result can be obtained. Yet they have the brass neck to try and present it up as democracy!

     

    As for SNP and the wider Yes movement being the anti-democratic ones... Yes Scotland Rally in George Square in the early hours of 19th September:

     

    post-4009-0-46320900-1442665093_thumb.jp

     

    Loyalists response to winning the referendum and having charged the Yes Scotland rally out of George Square:

     

    post-4009-0-66501800-1442665100_thumb.jp

    post-4009-0-27506900-1442665113_thumb.jp

    post-4009-0-47676200-1442665119_thumb.jp

     

    https://vine.co/v/OWPzrhni0Aj

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    Posted
  • Location: Ancrum
  • Weather Preferences: HOT SUNSHINE!
  • Location: Ancrum

     Anyway - how do we think Nicola is doing, as compared to Alex Salmond? Are people liking her better, or not? Are there any polls on this SS ?

    Edited by Paul
    Stop trying to stir the pot please...
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    Posted
  • Location: glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters hot summers
  • Location: glasgow

    A year ago Scotland voted, quite clearly, not to split this island into two separate countries. That isn't, a mere year later, settled enough for the SNP...

     

    As far as i am aware there isnt another referendum being held tomorrow , but if the scottish electorate wish to have another one then they , not you i or the snp , will decide that by voting for a party that has  a referendum promise in its manifesto.

     

    Its that simple devonian.

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