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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    We are the same race so accent, skin colour, religion etc are all irrelevant to me in most ways.

     

    Totally agree.

     

    I feel almost as much at home in France - my second country - as I do in Scotland.

     

    ----

     

    I imagine the authors of the work would be shocked to discover they are stating the obvious - people in a country tend to talk more with each other than they do with the country next door. That was essentially all they were showing. It's hardly earth shattering.

     

    82% of people living in Scotland were born in Scotland. Statistically therefore, ~82% of people's relatives, friends / colleagues are also Scottish and living in Scotland. Hence most personal phone calls in Scotland are within Scotland. 

     

    The same will apply to e.g. phone calls within government bodies such as the NHS. NHS Scotland will mainly call within NHS Scotland. Police Scotland will mainly call within police Scotland. SDI will mainly call Scottish businesses and vice versa.

     

    Only in private businesses might you expect more cross border calls.

     

    74% of calls in Scotland are internal; just as you'd expect for a largely self contained country... and therefore, as the authors concluded, you could completely shut off all cross border calls (a total extreme) and the country would not be greatly impacted in terms of communication; 74% of calls would be unaffected.

     

    Of course if you cut Edinburgh off from Glasgow, the impact would be much, much greater. We can't see that from the map, but we can see it from the English regional data; i.e. if you cut off London from the Midlands, 50% of calls could be affected; double the impact...

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Rifts starting to develop in SLAB over Corbyn.

     

    Kezia of course is seen as to the right of Sturgeon (Yougov) and was heavily critical of Corbyn before she realised he was going to win.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13719656.Darling__Scottish_Labour_should_not_lurch_to_the_left_now_that_Corbyn_has_won/

     

    Darling: Scottish Labour should not lurch to the left now that Corbyn has won
     
    SCOTTISH Labour must not be dragged to the left following the election of Jeremy Corbyn as UK party leader, Alistair Darling has warned.
     
    The former Chancellor, who steered the cross-party Better Together campaign to victory in last year's independence referendum, said he could not see a "silver lining" to left-winger Mr Corbyn's triumph.
     
    In an interview with The Herald, he urged Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale to remain rooted in the political centre ground, saying it would pay a "heavy price" if it attempted to challenged the SNP from a platform far to the left of Nicola Sturgeon's SNP.
     
    So far, Corbyn seems to have displayed all the knowledge and insight of Scottish politics you'd expect for a MP for Islington, London, England. Status quo unionism seems to be his vision for the future and Scotland; an annoyance because it stopped delivering Labour MPs (at least I've not found anything to suggest otherwise?). He's not going to have much time for Scotland; too busy fighting the right-wing press in England which is the country he's mainly interested in (as he should be as that's where he's an MP for).
     
    So, what can Kezia do? Risk losing labour heartland voters from the leafy avenues of North Morningside and the Grange with a Corbyn-like hard left agenda? Or stick with the Blairite agenda to keep them (in the face of a left UK Labour) which was what got labour to where it is now.
     
    Darling obviously thinks hold on to what you have rather than go for some sort of clearly fake damascene conversion which will just highlight further Labour's lack of conviction / principles.
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    This is going to generate a hell of a lot of new Yes votes. A soon as those letters start arriving on doormats. We are already seeing the swing in that group.

     

    Sad that it had to be this way. However, don’t blame me; I voted Yes.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34260902

     

    Commons back Osborne plan for tax credit cuts
     
    MPs have backed government plans to cut spending on tax credits in the face of opposition from Labour and the SNP.

     

     
    We must be looking at 400 million being taken away from Scots in work and trying their best to struggle by.
     
    They voted for the UK because the British welfare state offers used to offer them support in hard times. British solidarity.
     
    -----
     
    EDIT
     
    Also:
     
    Rough poll summary, ironing out the noise, for the past few years to date:
     
    Sep-12 ~35% Yes / 65% No
    Sep-13 ~40% Yes / 60% No
    Sep-14 ~45% Yes / 55% No
    Sep-15 ~50% Yes / 50% No
     
    Slow but steady.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Meanwhile...

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13738934.Police_pass_info_to_prosecutors_as_it_ends_year_long_probe_into_allegations_of_illegal_indyref_postal_vote_tallies/

     

    Police pass info to prosecutors as it ends year-long probe into allegations of illegal indyref postal vote tallies
     
    POLICE Scotland have passed on "information" to the Crown Office having concluded a year-long investigation into allegations pro-Union campaigners breached electoral secrecy laws during the Scottish independence referendum.
     
    The development comes nearly a year after police were instructed to launch an official probe over complaints surrounding comments made by Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson that postal vote "tallies" were being taken in the weeks before the referendum ballot closed at 10pm on September 18.
     
    On televised coverage of the referendum results, 45 minutes after the polls closed, Ms Davidson said that the Better Together camp had been "incredibly encouraged" by the results of a "sample opening" of the postal ballot that she said had taken place around the country over the few weeks prior to the poll.

     

     
     
    Suggests the police think their may be grounds for prosecution.
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    No it suggests that they have completed their investigations, which were requested by the Crown Office. As it was the Crown Office which asked for the police to look into the matter in the first place then it is procedural for the findings, upon conclusion of the investigation, are passed to the Crown Office. In fact it would be baffling if they were not. It doesn't mean anything about grounds for prosecution simply that the police are reporting their findings. What those findings are will be of more significance.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    which were requested by the Crown Office..... What those findings are will be of more significance.

     

    Ok, I stand corrected. I forgot how the complaints came about in this case.

     

    Very much so, yes.

     

    If there is evidence of widespread counting of postal votes, prosecution should follow. Likewise, we saw a sudden change in unionist party strategy at this time, which could suggest if postal voting counting had been occurring; the change in strategy was based at least in part on this.

     

    Would clearly add to the case for a new future referendum at some point. For a referendum to be sound, it needs to be completely free and fair. Counting secretly placed votes illegally immediately renders it neither (this would of course apply to either side being involved in any funny business).

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I'm just waiting for Scottish Labour to openly condemn Corbyn for not being patriotically British with his refusal to sing God Save the Queen.

     

    I mean remember the crap Scots athletes in Team GB got for doing that...

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Rough poll summary, ironing out the noise, for the past few years to date:

     
    Sep-12 ~35% Yes / 65% No
    Sep-13 ~40% Yes / 60% No
    Sep-14 ~45% Yes / 55% No
    Sep-15 ~50% Yes / 50% No
     
    Slow but steady.

     

     

    Extrapolating that....

     

    Sep-16 ~55% Yes / 45% No
    Sep-17 ~60% Yes / 40% No
    Sep-18 ~65% Yes / 35% No

     
    So new Indy Ref around 2018? If only it were that simple. :smile:
     
    Edited by Ravelin
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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    No it suggests that they have completed their investigations, which were requested by the Crown Office. As it was the Crown Office which asked for the police to look into the matter in the first place then it is procedural for the findings, upon conclusion of the investigation, are passed to the Crown Office. In fact it would be baffling if they were not. It doesn't mean anything about grounds for prosecution simply that the police are reporting their findings. What those findings are will be of more significance.

    Nonsense. In cases such as this, the police contact the Fiscals in order to establish whether there is legally a case, it's their job to investigate on behalf of the Fiscals. It is not procedural for their findings to be handed to the COPFS if there is no case to be had.

    Ruth is still completely innocent, but there is certainly a case to be at least considered if the report has been sent to the COPFS. It'll be a nightmare for whoevers marking that case though.

    Edited by NorthernRab
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Former FM has allowed publication of what would have been his victory speech, compare that to Cameron's!

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34267778

     

    Brought a wee tear to the eye the last line...

     

    "They will learn of this momentous day and thank you for investing your trust in each other. And in them."

     

    instead of this, the future generation will say..

     

    "We learned of the momentous day when we couldn't invest and trust one another"

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Former FM has allowed publication of what would have been his victory speech, compare that to Cameron's!

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34267778

     

    Brought a wee tear to the eye the last line...

     

    "They will learn of this momentous day and thank you for investing your trust in each other. And in them."

     

    instead of this, the future generation will say..

     

    "We learned of the momentous day when we couldn't invest and trust one another"

     

    Moving and gracious. A statesman.

     

    Unlike Cameron who couldn't wait to gloat, purr and stick the boot in with EVEL.

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    Unlike Alistair Darling who pretty much opened with a gloating attack on the other side.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Poll of ethnic minorities:

     

    2015 Election vote:
    60% SNP
    27% Lab
    8% Con
    3% Other
    2% Lib
     
    Scottish Parliament Constituency VI:
    65% SNP
    23% Lab
    5% Con
    3% Other
    2% Lib
     
    EDIT
     
    Oh, and didn't notice before, but again the SNP coming in as the most popular party for English (born) people again (Panelbase).
     
    34-38% SNP
     
    Nice.
    FE1E8749-45C9-4B00-8A9186310107D697_medi
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    Today's "National"

     

    'The Con: Only 9% of Scots believe The Vow has been kept'

     

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/the-con-only-9-of-scots-believe-the-vow-has-been-kept.7649

    Hopefully this rag will die soon? Is this what I am supposed to say if I don't like the message?

    Re. NR's post and the "nonsense" comment, I guess he has more info than I do and knows the postal votes matter is being treated in the same way as a normal police led prosecution rather than a Crown request. If this is the case I must have missed the reporting as what I read suggest that it was the Crown which instigated the investigation and asked the police to investigate and not the other way round - they would then surely in this instance have required a response/information regardless of whether they believed there was a case to answer? Either way a comment that was less rude and more informative than "nonsense" would have been appreciated.

    I'm getting a touch fed up with the very predictable and aggressive "it's our way of thinking or the wrong way" mentality in here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Hopefully this rag will die soon? Is this what I am supposed to say if I don't like the message?

     

    Do you see the Daily Record as a quality read?   :D

     

    I'm staying out of the police story. I understood the normal procedure was as Rab said, but then accepted there are stories saying the Crown Office asked the police to investigate like you said so...

     

    Either way, we should find out soon enough and, well, ahead of May's election it seems. That would be good as it would allow the electorate to take it into account when making their voting decision.

     

    ---

     

    On a similar topic.

     

    I understand requests are with the Information Commissioner to force the release of who saw the #Nikkilieaks memo and when ahead of the leak to the press by Carmichael; the Scotland Office so far refusing to be open on this. So, we might yet hear who else knew about / if anyone else was involved before May's election too.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    Yes, I am actually not sure of the situation re. The investigation which is why I raised my point of how I read the situation (as opposed to it being a normal prosecution case). I didn't expect it to be dismissed summarily as nonsense without firm evidence to back up such a dismissal. I don't mind if I am proven wrong in this case I just viewed it as not a "normal police-led prosecution".

    As for the Daily Record - our views on that "news"paper are probably very similar :D We do however need the Record and other publications (DM?) for "entertainment"/discussion purposes.

    Edited by doctormog
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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    Hopefully this rag will die soon? Is this what I am supposed to say if I don't like the message?

    Re. NR's post and the "nonsense" comment, I guess he has more info than I do and knows the postal votes matter is being treated in the same way as a normal police led prosecution rather than a Crown request. If this is the case I must have missed the reporting as what I read suggest that it was the Crown which instigated the investigation and asked the police to investigate and not the other way round - they would then surely in this instance have required a response/information regardless of whether they believed there was a case to answer? Either way a comment that was less rude and more informative than "nonsense" would have been appreciated.

    I'm getting a touch fed up with the very predictable and aggressive "it's our way of thinking or the wrong way" mentality in here.

     

    Sorry man, the word nonsense is pretty commonly used in civilised debate. 

    Yes, I am actually not sure of the situation re. The investigation which is why I raised my point of how I read the situation (as opposed to it being a normal prosecution case). I didn't expect it to be dismissed summarily as nonsense without firm evidence to back up such a dismissal. I don't mind if I am proven wrong in this case I just viewed it as not a "normal police-led prosecution".

    As for the Daily Record - our views on that "news"paper are probably very similar :D We do however need the Record and other publications (DM?) for "entertainment"/discussion purposes.

     

    What makes you think it's not an ordinary case? The fact that the COPFS directly instructed the police to investigate is irrelevant - they do so for hundreds if not thousands of relatively procedural cases every month. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    An interesting (and surprising) statistic. Can I get the link please?

    I was under the impression that the COFPS were not normally the instigator of investigations but rather the recipient of police investigations for further actions/prosecution. I guess I was mistaken.

    Out of curiosity how many investigations (as a proportion) start off at the COPFS then progress to a police investigation upon request as opposed to the other way round (and please don't respond with a patronising reply as it is a genuine question). I am genuinely curious but have been dismissed twice without being informed why (beyond vague brush offs).

    I am actually genuinely trying to find out more about how this works in this and similar situations so any clarification would be really appreciated. :)

    Edited by doctormog
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    An interesting (and surprising) statistic. Can I get the link please?

     

     

    You mean the use of the word 'nonsense'?

     

    It's used all the time like Rab says. Quick google search for, in this case, 'David Cameron nonsense' and off we go in seconds...

     

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11661342/David-Cameron-Dont-dare-call-us-Great-Shrinking-Britain.html

     

    David Cameron has delivered a rebuke to critics of Britain’s level of defence spending, saying it is “nonsense†to say that the country’s military capabilities are “shrinkingâ€.
     
     
    Ken Clarke: Some of Cameron's EU demands are nonsense
     

     

    A Downing Street source dismissed Robinson’s story story as “total nonsenseâ€.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    An interesting (and surprising) statistic. Can I get the link please?

    I was under the impression that the COFPS were not normally the instigator of investigations but rather the recipient of police investigations for further actions/prosecution. I guess I was mistaken.

    Out of curiosity how many investigations (as a proportion) start off at the COPFS then progress to a police investigation upon request as opposed to the other way round (and please don't respond with a patronising reply as it is a genuine question). I am genuinely curious but have been dismissed twice without being informed why (beyond vague brush offs).

    I am actually genuinely trying to find out more about how this works in this and similar situations so any clarification would be really appreciated. :)

    I don't think you'll find statistics on direct correspondence between the police and the Fiscals over such matters (you could try?), but ask anyone who's worked in criminal law (myself included - my degree and job are both in Scottish criminal law) and they'll tell you the same. It'll be contained within the prosecution guide on the COPFS website if you want to take a look.

    The police investigate on behalf of and under the instruction of the Fiscals, it is the Fiscals job to direct them and their responsibility to ensure that all evidence is gathered, regardless of whether that evidence is beneficial to the prosecution of the defence. There's frequent back and forths between the two organizations and the police phone the Fiscals daily in order to obtain legal advice and direction.

    All investigations, with the exception of TV license stuff etc, is first compiled as a report by the police which is then sent to the Fiscals to mark, as this one was unless said investigations fall at the first hurdle (such as extremely minor tit for tat stuff).

    Edit: if you have any other questions I'd be happy to (attempt) to answer them. :)

    Edited by NorthernRab
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    Thanks.:)

    The only other questions I have is, wouldn't it be unusual, in a caselike this, for the police not to hand over their findings (which was sort of my initial point)? Given the information already in public (Davidsons own public actions), I would have thought that the matter could not be dismissed at an early stage. I'd have thought they would say (in proper terms) "this is what we have found out, you decide how to proceed"?

    Essentially (and this a question not a statement:) because of this, the police passing on their findings doesn't really tell us anything we don't already know, it is what happens next that is of significance?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    I think we can conclude that if the police had reported ‘No obvious criminal activity / insufficient evidence of such’ to the Crown Office, we’d probably know about it by now. So, instead, it seems they may have found something and the Crown Office now need to decide whether to take that forward.

     

    Let’s go back to what Ruth Davidson said on live TV (BBC’s Scotland Decides) to the nation, when postal votes should not have been counted in any way:

     

    “We have had people at every sample opening around the country over the last few weeks while that’s been coming in and we have been incredibly encouraged by the results from that.

     

    “Going into today, from the postal votes that were cast, our side would have had a lead and I think that we have a confidence, I hope a quiet confidence, that the quiet majority of Scots have spoken today.â€

     

    From that, I don’t think it can be disputed that she did have access to data from the illegal counting of postal votes in some form. The tone she uses also suggests she really didn’t feel that was wrong. I attribute this to the standard ‘Scots have lost their minds’ attitude of hardcore British unionists; they truly believe Scottish people need to be saved from themselves by the far more intelligent and sensible British. That Scotland is undemocratic and people have temporarily lost their minds in voting SNP. Ergo, anything and everything must be done to save the union. Counting of postal votes to change strategy if needed is therefore perfectly ok; people will understand the necessity of doing this in hindsight.

     

    Whether she or any other senior figure (e.g. Labour’s McTernan) ends up getting prosecuted is another matter. There would need to be some sort of direct evidence such as e-mails linking them to what was going on; reports of illegal counts etc with them copied in, maybe replying with thanks. That or material witnesses linking e.g. Ruth directly to the illegal counting; ‘I gave Ruth an the team a breakdown of the numbers we found over the phone’ or the like.

     

    The first line of what she said suggests the whole thing was very coordinated, so a paper or e-mail trail there may well be.

     

    However, the trail may not go all the way to the top clearly and it could e.g. be concluded the unionist side did undertake illegal counting and those actually doing that on the floor end up in some bother. However, Ruth et al. walk because they can’t be materially linked and won’t admit in court what they said on the TV, instead brushing that off as a misunderstanding. That would however seriously damage reputations and still add justification for holding a future iref on the grounds the first was not truly free and fair.

     

    We shall see.

    Edited by scottish skier
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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    On a related topic...

     

    Nice to have academic studies confirm what keeps being said on here:

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/13764523.State_of_the_parties_on_year_on__unionists_won_war_but_have_they_lost_the_peace_/

     

    At a conference examining Scotland's post-referendum landscape this week, the Aberdeen University academic Michael Keating argued that despite the electoral map of the country being turned on its head since the vote, in a sense there was also a continuity. The SNP, he said, was now simply seen by voters as the fulfilling Labour's former role - sticking up for Scotland in London from the left of centre.
     
    Meanwhile, the unionist parties have struggled to come up with a convincing narrative in the post-devolution landscape. Considering Labour's refusal to deal with the SNP at Westminster pre-general election, and Tory depictions of the SNP as pickpockets, his analysis that the behaviour of unionists is damaging the union deeply is convincing.

     

     

    As I've said on a number of occasions, a party / cause can only bring itself down. The opposition can't do that, only try to fill the void caused by that party / cause bringing itself down.

     

    In this case the cause is the union and it is the unionists destroying that cause.

     

    The postal vote thing is just one example, #nikileaks another and so on.

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