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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Prospect of another iref not scaring 67% the electorate

     

    More or less likely to vote SNP if a new indyref is in their manifesto:

    31% More Likely
    36% Makes no difference
    33% Less Likely
     
    The less likely of course will be those that wouldn't vote SNP anyway.
     
    Herald spin on the findings is amusing:
     
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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

     

    Some of the MSM will never change. Some how you could never imagine putting "Two thirds of Scots likely to vote SNP whether a promise for a further referendum is in their manifesto or not"

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Labour supporting daily Herald cartoon today.

     

    [snip]

     

    Herald doesn't seem to have a lot of faith.

     

    So what? It's a cartoonist's prerogative to make fun of any situation, not accurately reflect what's happening. 

     

    Labour party membership has rocketed, a precursor to electoral success - but then it's not the SNP, so we'll ignore it eh?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    So what? It's a cartoonist's prerogative to make fun of any situation, not accurately reflect what's happening. 

     

    Labour party membership has rocketed, a precursor to electoral success - but then it's not the SNP, so we'll ignore it eh?

     

    No need to be so touchy HC. The Herald is a Labour supporting paper; I just noted their cartoon take on the situation.

     

    I added my own thoughts which are basically 'I don't really know if people in England will vote for Corbyn and what happens could be important in Scotland'. 

     

    Also that the last time we found ourselves in this situation - i.e. with a Tory majority and indy ahead in the polls - Labour needed to look like they were guaranteed a win and were offering devolution to stave off independence. This time of course we are looking at devo max as probably the only thing that could settle the constitutional matter ahead of indy.

     

    I already said I'd prefer Corbyn leading a decent opposition to the Tories while Scotland remains stuck in the union.

     

    Jeez, maybe I shouldn't defend Corbyn / attack the record of the right in the Corbyn thread! Which I'll do when he's unjustly vilified etc, even though I wouldn't vote for him because, while he and I agree on a lot of things, we don't agree on enough.*

     

    ---

     

    *The obvious one being that he believes MPs elected in England should govern Scotland, when I believe members elected in Scotland should do that as is the norm in democratic countries.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    I'm only touchy because I know anything I write in here is just going to get your immediate loving attention - you're like some bloody class monitor.  Is it any wonder there's so little proper debate?

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    I'm only touchy because I know anything I write in here is just going to get your immediate loving attention - you're like some bloody class monitor.  Is it any wonder there's so little proper debate?

    So you post knowing that your post will receive a response which you won't like?

    If you don't like what SS posts then defend your position instead of going in a huff

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland
    Labour party membership has rocketed, a precursor to electoral success - but then it's not the SNP, so we'll ignore it eh?

    Would be interesting to get a breakdown of the numbers of new members both before and after the leadership election by area. It would probably be better for Labour if it were disproportionately drawn from England - that would lend wait to the theory that there are large numbers towards the left of centre who had disengaged from the political process. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    A very valid question for Corbyn from James Kelly at Scotgoespop...

     

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/james-kelly-scottish-question-jeremy-corbyn-what-makes-us-inferior-ireland-1519685

     

    James Kelly: A Scottish question for Jeremy Corbyn: 'What makes us inferior to Ireland?'
     
    Like many people who mysteriously ended up on Labour's mailing list without asking to be added, I received an email from Jeremy Corbyn at the weekend offering me the chance to suggest a question to put to David Cameron at PMQs on Wednesday.
     
    But, right now, many of us in Scotland are far more interested in putting questions to the new Leader of the Opposition, a person we are still trying to get the full measure of. The one I'd choose is this: what exactly is it that makes Scotland inferior to Ireland?
     
    Throughout his long parliamentary career, Corbyn has championed the cause of a united and independent Ireland, even to the extent of offering the hand of friendship to those who were waging a campaign of violence in pursuit of that goal. His new shadow chancellor went further still, insisting that we should actually "honour" the IRA and its bombings for helping to bring about the peace process.
     
    And yet the immaculately peaceful national movement in Scotland, which even in last year's referendum defeat attracted far wider public support than Irish unity currently does, seems to leave Corbyn utterly cold.
     
    To his credit, he has accepted the right of the Scottish people to choose independence in the future if they want (although the language he's used on that point has at times been troublingly ambivalent), but he makes no secret of the fact that he wishes the issue would simply go away...
     
    Aye, this has always been the hypocritical nature of Labour. It doesn't stand in N. Ireland as it traditionally backs the SDLP who wish a re-united Ireland independent of the UK. The SDLP even traditionally take the Labour whip in Westminster.
     
    The SDLP are of course the Northern Irish equivalent of the SNP; both are moderately left of centre economically / moderate liberals which seek independence (+ reunification in the case of the SDLP) through peaceful, democratic means.*
     
    However, when it comes to Scotland..... Labour hate the SNP and British nationalism trumps all. 
     
    ---
     
    *Only a couple of squares apart on the political compass.
     
     
    And political positions (from wiki):
     
    SDLP
    Ideology:
    Social democracy
    Irish nationalism
     
    Political position:
    Centre-left
     
    SNP
    Ideology:
    Scottish nationalism
    Civic nationalism
    Social democracy
     
    Political position:
    Centre-left
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Could the irritating wee fact that Ireland is an island (and Scotland isn't) have anything to do with it? :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Could the irritating wee fact that Ireland is an island (and Scotland isn't) have anything to do with it? :D

     

    That's probably the most nonsensical reason for the union ever given; and the one often used by unionists who can't provide a sensible one!

     

    Should Denmark join with Germany because it only shares a land border with Germany? Denmark is as much an island as Scotland is in terms of borders...

     

    Should Malaysia hand over sovereignty of those island territories it shares with Indonesia to the latter?

     

    Maybe Portugal and Gibraltar should just form regions of a greater Spain; after all, they are all part of the same peninsula.

     

    Why not go the whole hog and every country from Portugal to Thailand to South Africa merge into one? They are after all one big island?

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    That's probably the most nonsensical reason for the union ever given; and the one often used by unionists who can't provide a sensible one!

     

    Should Denmark join with Germany because it only shares a land border with Germany? Denmark is as much an island as Scotland is in terms of borders...

     

    Should Malaysia hand over sovereignty of those island territories it shares with Indonesia to the latter?

     

    Maybe Portugal and Gibraltar should just form regions of a greater Spain; after all, they are all part of the same peninsula.

     

    Why not go the whole hog and every country from Portugal to Thailand to South Africa merge into one? They are after all one big island?

    Absolutely right, SS. But, it's just the sort of half-crazy belief-system that fuels many Nationalists, Separatists and Unionists alike. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    So what? It's a cartoonist's prerogative to make fun of any situation, not accurately reflect what's happening.

    Labour party membership has rocketed, a precursor to electoral success - but then it's not the SNP, so we'll ignore it eh?

    I think some people's willingness to ignore the fact that the Labour parliamentary group is still largely one of centre-right Blairites is somewhat confusing to be honest.

    While I'm extremely happy to applaud and support leftist (or any indeed any) grassroots political involvement, the fact that Corbyn will have to navigate a ship through very stormy waters with a steering wheel jammed in a rightward direction cannot be overlooked. In this sense at least, the illustration is fairly apt.

    I can't detect any reference to the SNP within the sketch, though.

    Edited by NorthernRab
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Well, it's official.

     

    Yes is ahead in the polls.

     

    Survation have released a poll for the daily mail which has 49.4% Y / 50.6% N. So, three statistical ties and 2 Yes out in front fairly clearly.

     

    If we average all 5 recent polls together (TNS, MORI, survation, Yougov and panelbase) as Prof C would do, you get 50.3% Yes. First time that's ever happened in a PoP since, well, the last time the Tories had a majority.

     

    Now, that's being a little unfair though as it's giving too much weight to one type of method, i.e. online. Really, we should give equal weight to each method (telephone, face to face and online). Do that and it's 52% Yes / 48% No.

     

    We also might want to exclude Yougov as they seem to not use CoB weighting which favours No as it result in too many English born. But what the hell, lets be conservative.

     

    Either way I think we are at or a little past crossover.

     

    Steady as she goes is what we want...

     

    ----

     

    Mail Survation poll Holyrood prediction:

     

     
    editable-cross_bigger.png

    Scottish Daily Mail/@Survation poll for #sp16 SEATS SNP 71 Labour 26 Con 14 Greens 12 LibDems 6

     

     

     

    Fairly standard. Greens chasing the Tories for third place.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Absolutely right, SS. But, it's just the sort of half-crazy belief-system that fuels many Nationalists, Separatists and Unionists alike. :D

     

    Well, geography is an important factor in why countries originally developed. The reason Scotland is Scotland is a lot to do with geography* (looks South to the Cheviots and North to the Southern uplands then down the Tweed valley although can't see the Solway).

     

    However, it's not a reason in itself to create a country from existing ones that developed 'naturally'.

     

    ---

     

    *Geography is the reason this happens:

     

    20101211_brm968.gif

     

    http://www.economist.com/node/17680973

     

    Scotland is geographically - and thus socially / economically - 'connected' internally, but much less so with the rUK. This is of course normal for countries; most people spend their lives in one only, only crossing borders for holidays occasionally.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Also:

     

    Q24. If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?", how would you vote?

     

    51% Remain a member of the European Union

    29% Leave the European

     

    = 64% Remain ex DK

     

    Looks fairly standard.

     

    ----

     

    And, from Yougov, in order from left-wing to right-wing:

     

    Some people talk about 'left', 'right' and 'centre' to describe parties and politicians. With this in mind, where would you place each of the following...?
     
    LEFT
    Nicola Sturgeon
    53% Left Wing
    12% Centre
    9% Right wing
     
    Alex Salmond
    45% left wing
    13% Centre
    12% Right wing
     
    Kezia Dugdale
    36% Left wing
    10% Centre
    15% Right wing
     
    Ruth Davidson
    4% Left wing
    5% Centre
    57% Right-wing
    RIGHT
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Scotland is geographically - and thus socially / economically - 'connected' internally, but much less so with the rUK. This is of course normal for countries; most people spend their lives in one only, only crossing borders for holidays occasionally.

     

    It would be good to see that graphic broken down within Scotland too, as I'm sure there would be clear divisions there too.

     

    You could use that argument to split Scotland into smaller units, for example with Strathclyde as an independent country. Most people who live in and around Glasgow will never travel outwith the area unless they're going on holiday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    It would be good to see that graphic broken down within Scotland too, as I'm sure there would be clear divisions there too.

     

    You could use that argument to split Scotland into smaller units, for example with Strathclyde as an independent country. Most people who live in and around Glasgow will never travel outwith the area unless they're going on holiday.

    I think Glaswegians travel to Edinburgh fairly often, at least compared to Invernessians and Aberdonians.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    I think Glaswegians travel to Edinburgh fairly often, at least compared to Invernessians and Aberdonians.

     

    The majority don't. Very few people commute from Glasgow to Edinburgh, or vice versa.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I think Glaswegians travel to Edinburgh fairly often, at least compared to Invernessians and Aberdonians.

     

    Yes. My workmate spends every second weekend in Glasgow. I have colleagues from Blairgowrie to Selkirk who commute. Don't work with anyone who commutes from England; Newcastle alone is ~2.5 hours on a good day.

     

    I'm in the Highlands fairly regularly, as are my parents. Was in Aberdeen the other day and on the phone to there fairly regularly.

     

    Not been to England (outside of airport transit) since 2010 by contrast.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    It would be good to see that graphic broken down within Scotland too, as I'm sure there would be clear divisions there too.

     

    They'd look like the divisions shown for England; i.e. notably more communication within Scotland, but e.g. the remote highlands would probably not be talking to the central belt as much as the latter did internally.

     

    That however doesn't detract from Scotland not talking much at all to the rest of the UK, which was the point of the illustration and conclusion of the study.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    They'd look like the divisions shown for England; i.e. notably more communication within Scotland, but e.g. the remote highlands would probably not be talking to the central belt as much as the latter did internally.

     

    That however doesn't detract from Scotland not talking much at all to the rest of the UK, which was the point of the illustration and conclusion of the study.

     

    I'm still not sure what it's supposed to prove though? So we don't use the phone to speak to people far away...what does that prove? I speak to people outside Scotland every day via Facebook, so maybe it's the cost/time involved with a phone call that causes the graphic?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I'm still not sure what it's supposed to prove though? So we don't use the phone to speak to people far away...what does that prove? I speak to people outside Scotland every day via Facebook, so maybe it's the cost/time involved with a phone call that causes the graphic?

     

    It's not me you need to argue with, but the authors of the study. It's their conclusions. :)

     

    They're just saying Scotland looks like other countries phone calls-wise; most phone calls within it are made to places within it and not across the border. Britain in contrast, does not; it's clearly sub-divided.

     

    Sure there is a geography / distance factor; that's why I posted it. I was responding to a discussion on geography and how this relates to countries.

     

    Here's the original study:

     

    http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0014248

     

    Redrawing the Map of Great Britain from a Network of Human Interactions
     
    Carlo Ratti, Stanislav Sobolevsky, Francesco Calabrese , Clio Andris, Jonathan Reades, Mauro Martino, Rob Claxton, Steven H. Strogatz
     
    Do regional boundaries defined by governments respect the more natural ways that people interact across space? This paper proposes a novel, fine-grained approach to regional delineation, based on analyzing networks of billions of individual human transactions. Given a geographical area and some measure of the strength of links between its inhabitants, we show how to partition the area into smaller, non-overlapping regions while minimizing the disruption to each person's links. We tested our method on the largest non-Internet human network, inferred from a large telecommunications database in Great Britain. Our partitioning algorithm yields geographically cohesive regions that correspond remarkably well with administrative regions, while unveiling unexpected spatial structures that had previously only been hypothesized in the literature. We also quantify the effects of partitioning, showing for instance that the effects of a possible secession of Wales from Great Britain would be twice as disruptive for the human network than that of Scotland.
     
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    It's not me you need to argue with, but the authors of the study. It's their conclusions. :)

     

    They're just saying Scotland looks like other countries phone calls-wise; most phone calls within it are made to places within it and not across the border. Britain in contrast, does not; it's clearly sub-divided.

     

    Sure there is a geography / distance factor; that's why I posted it. I was responding to a discussion on geography and how this relates to countries.

     

    Here's the original study:

     

    That certainly puts a different spin on it than the original graphic. It still doesn't allow for different forms of communication. It didn't seem to allow for the fact that a local call is a lot cheaper than a national call via BT, so that will have an effect on the geographic spread of landline calls. It would be interesting to see the same study repeated where cost wasn't a factor and which included other forms of communication.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    What is it proving though?

    I mean, someone in Cumbria will not often talk to someone in Devon... Or Kent or Inverness.

    Surely you talk to family and friends usually (business calls aside ie London/Edinburgh HQs)

    So family (normally) living nearby and friends being from work or school so either where you grew up or where you have moved to. That's going to be 95% + of your communication.

    Call wise it's basically all where I live. Even texts are rarely out of even my home region, sometimes uni friends up here or work friends down there (Gretna area) and that's it.

    FB I chat to people from Somerset and Leicestershire almost daily but that wouldn't show on said survey.

    My real point is (due to the internet) I feel like we are more connected than ever with other people. I feel pretty similar to a Devonshire person whereas, if they spoke a different dialect and days before good transport and internet, I'd feel quite removed.

    Surely, it's a positive thing to feel more included and that's why I view a national (note: 'national', micro-scale would be ok if people want it but I still don't like) re-introduction of Gaelic to be 'backward' and counter-productive to the country and rather isolationist.

    We are the same race so accent, skin colour, religion etc are all irrelevant to me in most ways.

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