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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Owned by the Rothschilds? It was recently sold by the Pearson group to the Japanese media group Nikkei  Promise me you will buck up SS. As you are well aware I'm a staunch supporter of independence but I don't think the economics are cut and dried and need careful thought and not a little expertise.

     

    For example Professor Ronald MacDonald of Glasgow University (He is currently the Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy at the Adam Smith Business School) says If Scotland were independent or fiscally autonomous, it would face a budget deficit this year of around 10% of GDP, around twice Britain’s deficit.

     

    Wikipedia needs updating.

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist

     

    I think the main point is should people in Scotland pay too much attention to what publications from other countries think? Especially a country that's keen to keep a hold of Scotland's taxes, territory and resources.? The Economist has never openly stated it is anti-Scottish independence, but as Owen Jones says, you can tell its stance.

     

    They are worth noting, but we have plenty of economists in Scotland. They ultimately know Scotland better than economists from other countries and we are dealing with a process of self-determination. Of course they two will have their biases.

     

    Take your Ronald MacDonald for example. He is a well established supporter of the union / Better Together and I doubt that's for purely economic reasons. We do have a good number of 'British' people in Scotland who won't be persuaded to independence because they are British in identity.

     

    Of course on the flip side we have people who are Scottish and won't be persuaded to back the union.

     

    Both will invariably find facts and arguments to suit what they believe.

     

    All a bit trivial really as we see from polling that it isn't really about economics.

     

    If it was, we'd see much more equal levels of support across all demographic groups; all would be faced with the same information and decide similarly.

     

    Instead, we find that the main factor is generational identity. Basically, the groups that are not very British any more (everyone under 65) support indy and those that hang on to lingering sense of Britishness that once pervaded every aspect of Scottish life (the post-war consensus baby boomers) in majority don't. The transition is not gentle, but a huge generational step change around the 60-65 years mark. 

     

    No country has ever gone for independence based on economics. It might be talked about a lot, but its not what drives things. Instead, it is social / cultural and political. The UK cannot survive unless Scots vote generally the same way as English people and they see a common purpose to the union that benefits them very clearly. They used to do this and feel that (post-war nationalised industries and institutions...welfare state etc). Since the 1970's, this has progressively broken down leading to where we are now.

     

    Referendum studies showed that the main reason for people voting Yes was that 'Scotland would be better governed by a government it elects'. Hardly a surprise; that's the reason every country votes for indy.

     

    ---

     

    Anyway, with the Tories back, we can expect severe economic damage like last time.

     

    At the same time, it looks worrying like we may end up with a very divided opposition not in a position to counter the damage being caused by the Tories.

     

    So it may not be long before, for economic reasons, more people back independence.

     

    Although, as noted, the working population already backs it comfortably (that must be annoying for the Tories).

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland
    For example Professor Ronald MacDonald of Glasgow University (He is currently the Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy at the Adam Smith Business School) says If Scotland were independent or fiscally autonomous, it would face a budget deficit this year of around 10% of GDP, around twice Britain’s deficit.

     

    A large chunk of that deficit would be accounted for by UK debt repayments/interest and effective fiscal transfers to UK expenditure that doesn't generate Barnett Consequentials. If Scotland was independent today and had been for decades, then there wouldn't be the huge national debt to service, indeed unless governments had been unthinkably incompetent there should actually be a surplus squirrelled away generating income.

     

    The IFS (which the MSM used to bang on about how bad the deficit would be at present and in the near future) continue to predict that even with those UK factors in play, Scotland's fiscal position later this decade will be better than the UKs and continue to improve faster than the UKs even if oil prices remain seriously depressed (they ultimately can't for reasons laid out in the Oil thread).

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Owned by the Rothschilds? It was recently sold by the Pearson group to the Japanese media group Nikkei  Promise me you will buck up SS. As you are well aware I'm a staunch supporter of independence but I don't think the economics are cut and dried and need careful thought and not a little expertise.

     

    For example Professor Ronald MacDonald of Glasgow University (He is currently the Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy at the Adam Smith Business School) says If Scotland were independent or fiscally autonomous, it would face a budget deficit this year of around 10% of GDP, around twice Britain’s deficit.

     

    Will the economics ever be perfectly cut and dried? I appreciate that far more needs to be more settled if there's another referendum (e.g. the currency issue), but you can predict all you want, you'll never really know how it's going to work out until it's put in place and under way. Obviously it's not as simple as building a bridge, it is all very open ended from all sides. I appreciate you'll realise all this knocker, just asking if anyone can ever plot out exactly how it will turn out? :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland
    Instead, we find that the main factor is generational identity. Basically, the groups that are not very British any more (everyone under 65) support indy and those that hang on to lingering sense of Britishness that once pervaded every aspect of Scottish life (the post-war consensus baby boomers) in majority don't. The transition is not gentle, but a huge generational step change around the 60-65 years mark.

     

    A few posters on here regularly have commented that we're wrong about this and it's simply as you get older you get more right wing and more conservative, so even in ten years time the generational breakdown won't shift.

     

    Aside from the fact that most people that support Indy have made a personal journey in the opposite direction through their lives, there's demographic evidence in the present population to show that this is a generational thing / not an age thing. In the oldest portion of the over 65's group, support for Independence and sense of primarily or exclusively Scottish NatID rises again, of course there are far fewer people of this age, but 10 years ago it was notably more marked, thus it does add confirmation to the argument that the Baby Boomer generation was a blip in seeing itself as British. 

    Edited by skifreak
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Yes, economics is a long term thing and I don't think anyone could look at the history of the union and say it was economically beneficial to Scotland.

     

    The empire never really benefited anyone other than the wealthy landowners and tobacco lords etc; most people lived in abject slum poverty while the wealthy held parties in massive luxurious mansions that still dot the country.

     

    Scotland's time in the union is characterised by continuous mass economic emigration as people left, seeking a better life elsewhere. Even during the oil boom of the 70s onwards we still saw continued emigration, mass unemployment and poverty as London sucked jobs and revenues south. In contrast, the SE of England has boomed, with England's population swelling accordingly. Scotland was around 20% of the UK population at the time of the union, now its 8%. Economic disaster.

     

    The reversal of this long term trend to net immigration and recent resurgence in Scotland's economy is attributable to one thing only; partial self governance in the form of devolution.

     

    Imagine if people had voted No in 1997. Doesn't bear thinking about.

     

    And now we are back to a Tory majority. We all know the damage to Scotland's economy that they brought the last time. Utter disaster for both Scotland and the UK. Huge, sustained unemployment, recession and all culminating in the debacle of Black Wednesday.  

     

    ----

     

    EDIT

     

    Aye, I remember the last period of Tory rule well.

     

    Learning geology* in a rotting portakabin in a school where the heating broke down all the time, while watching the decaying hotels that used to accommodate shipworkers etc on holiday instead accommodate DSS. And that was in a wealthy town. Prospects for a job on leaving school? Very grim unless you left your country behind and moved to the south of England.

     

    And all the while, hundreds of billions in free money was flowing into the London coffers from just out of sight off the coast.

     

    ---

     

    *So I might not have to become another economic emigrant forced out of Scotland.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34234024

     

    Gosh, and there I was thinking 'it's up to the Scottish electorate to decide whether we have another referendum'.

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    Re. Scottish exports.

     

    Exports are doing better than many predicted. The Index of Manufactured Exports for Scotland shows that in the past year manufacturing export volumes have risen by 2.7% in real terms. :)

     

    Source. Article in the Economist Sept. 12th-18th, A year after the independence referendum, Scotland’s unexpectedly strong economic performance underlines the benefits of union. :(

     

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21664219-year-after-independence-referendum-scotlands-unexpectedly-strong-economic-performance

    Funny that having briefly experienced global exposure and attention, akin to that of a regular independent state, Scotland's international profile seems stronger than ever.

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34234024

     

    Gosh, and there I was thinking 'it's up to the Scottish electorate to decide whether we have another referendum'.

    Can't see any departure from their previous position in that article HC?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34234024

     

    Gosh, and there I was thinking 'it's up to the Scottish electorate to decide whether we have another referendum'.

     

    From that article:
     
    "It's then for people in Scotland, whether it is in this election or in future elections, to decide whether they want to vote for our manifesto and then if there is in the future another independence referendum, whether that's in five years or 10 years or whenever, it will be down to the people of Scotland to decide whether they want to vote for independence or not.
     
    "So at every single stage this is something that is driven by and decided by the people of Scotland, not by politicians."
     
    It seems you were bang on in your assumptions!
     
    ---
     
    Out of interest HC, what's your thoughts on this Corbyn fella? 
     
    He any chance down south or are we screwed until its a Yes.
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    SS I know you directed your question to Hairy Celt but for what it's worth, my personal view?

     

    Corbyn is a Unionist with international leanings. I think he would like to see a stronger world wide coming together of the left. No place in that scenario for an IScotland. He also needs a SLAB revival to prop up his chances south of the border.

     

    It ain't gonna happen! I Ref#2 here we come.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    SS I know you directed your question to Hairy Celt but for what it's worth, my personal view?

     

    Corbyn is a Unionist with international leanings. I think he would like to see a stronger world wide coming together of the left. No place in that scenario for an IScotland. He also needs a SLAB revival to prop up his chances south of the border.

     

    It ain't gonna happen! I Ref#2 here we come.

     

    Oh for sure, I'm quite aware of Corbyn's "independence for everywhere (Eire, N. Ireland, Tibet, Palestine , even the UK at times (from the EU)) except Scotland" stance. Standard old Labour hypocritical stuff; Scotland should provide left wing MPs to help save the English from themselves, even thought this fails and Scotland gets Tory governments as a reward.

     

    It's just Hairy is old left Labour and has more experience of English politics so might have had some thoughts.

     

    I'd still prefer some proper opposition to the Tories while we remain stuck here. 

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    JC has been an MP for >30 years and there's good reasons why he's not been any part of any cabinet or shadow cabinet.  I don't think many labour MPs trust him and he seems to change his mind on issues for sometimes quite obscure reasons.  It might not be a fashionable thing to write, but I think labour's in for a long period of internal debate and turmoil. I hope I'm wrong because the UK's stuffed with the way politics is going just now under the tories and SNP.  It's not just the politicians' fault, I think the British (all of us) as a bunch of people have got some weird superiority complex hangover that makes us disliked internationally like virtually no other people. It's systemic and not something that's easily remedied, but our current leaders have no sense of self-awareness...  <rambles on endlessly>

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    JC has been an MP for >30 years and there's good reasons why he's not been any part of any cabinet or shadow cabinet.  I don't think many labour MPs trust him and he seems to change his mind on issues for sometimes quite obscure reasons.  It might not be a fashionable thing to write, but I think labour's in for a long period of internal debate and turmoil. I hope I'm wrong because the UK's stuffed with the way politics is going just now under the tories and SNP.  It's not just the politicians' fault, I think the British (all of us) as a bunch of people have got some weird superiority complex hangover that makes us disliked internationally like virtually no other people. It's systemic and not something that's easily remedied, but our current leaders have no sense of self-awareness...  <rambles on endlessly>

     

    Thanks for your thoughts HC. I kinda feel the same; he seems a bit uncompromising but at the same time, changes his mind inexplicably as you say.

     

    Speak for yourself about 'British'. I'm 'Scottish Only' (2011 census) and I think there are a good few countries we could learn a lot from.  :)

     

    As for the SNP; they are a movement in response to the situation, not a party. Independence will see them slowly disband; job done. A good share of them will form a new left in an iScotland alongside the Greens, SSP, new RISE party etc.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    JC has been an MP for >30 years and there's good reasons why he's not been any part of any cabinet or shadow cabinet.  I don't think many labour MPs trust him and he seems to change his mind on issues for sometimes quite obscure reasons.  It might not be a fashionable thing to write, but I think labour's in for a long period of internal debate and turmoil. I hope I'm wrong because the UK's stuffed with the way politics is going just now under the tories and SNP.  It's not just the politicians' fault, I think the British (all of us) as a bunch of people have got some weird superiority complex hangover that makes us disliked internationally like virtually no other people. It's systemic and not something that's easily remedied, but our current leaders have no sense of self-awareness...  <rambles on endlessly>

    It's taught in schools, part of the PSHE programme. I know this from how my year 11 daughters attitude to many things has changed in the last few years. When I talk to her about some private stuff, I get my teacher said this and that and the other. Going to be hard to fix a whole generation of brainwashed 11 to 25 year old's. If it doesn't start from younger.

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    It's taught in schools, part of the PSHE programme. I know this from how my year 11 daughters attitude to many things has changed in the last few years. When I talk to her about some private stuff, I get my teacher said this and that and the other. Going to be hard to fix a whole generation of brainwashed 11 to 25 year old's. If it doesn't start from younger.

     

    What's the PSHE programme?

     

    Some folks have concerns about aspects of the new CFE in Scotland, but kids developing a superiority complex about being British ain't one of them!

     

    The opposite in fact; right-wingers complaining its all to 'soft and be nice to each other' without enough 'competition'.

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  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    What's the PSHE programme?

     

    Some folks have concerns about aspects of the new CFE in Scotland, but kids developing a superiority complex about being British ain't one of them!

     

    The opposite in fact; right-wingers complaining its all to 'soft and be nice to each other' without enough 'competition'.

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal,_Social_and_Health_Education

     

    It covers other things that are important too, but it's how they teach those two aspects that is concerning. 

     

    Another link: https://www.pshe-association.org.uk/content.aspx?CategoryID=1043

    Edited by alexisj9
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Lightening things up a bit: 

     

    Yer cannae beat the bagpipes! :D

     

    And, the absolute best tune ever: 

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

     

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal,_Social_and_Health_Education

     

    It covers other things that are important too, but it's how they teach those two aspects that is concerning. 

     

    Another link: https://www.pshe-association.org.uk/content.aspx?CategoryID=1043

     

     

    What concerns you about how they're taught?

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  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    What concerns you about how they're taught?

    Can't explain it, have a chat it's just the way she talks, like a young tory. Especially on subjects of work. Benefits, sick people in work. That everyone can do something line, those that don't are just lazy scroungers. Which I'm sure most people agree on anyway, but it's not true. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Can't explain it, have a chat it's just the way she talks, like a young tory. Especially on subjects of work. Benefits, sick people in work. That everyone can do something line, those that don't are just lazy scroungers. Which I'm sure most people agree on anyway, but it's not true. 

     

    Had a look at some of the PSHE stuff and well, I could see where that might come from.

     

    http://www.whitbyhs.cheshire.sch.uk/downloads/PHSE%20Document%202.pdf

     

    Some kinda worrying stuff in there for example. Not so much concepts, but presentation / delivery. Centre-right flavour certainly.

     

    Total non-expert though. Doesn't apply in Scotland.

     

    Thankfully my almost 8 year old isn't coming home from School sounding like a Tory!

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Yeah I had a rummage about PSHE too. It lends itself to right-wing indoctrination but what do you expect from this lot? Dave, Gove, Gideon and that lot are a disgrace and an embarrassment to the country.  But we knew that anyway, although most parts of this 'serious discussion' area seem to be populated by tory apologists and fascist freaks - best I keep out!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Labour supporting daily Herald cartoon today.

     

    4216836.jpg

     

    It's an interesting situation certainly.

     

    Some have argued that you would see a left revival UK-wide if only folks in England had a left party to vote for.

     

    We shall now see whether that has any substance. Could be instrumental in the future of the union.

     

    If Corbyn can pull off 50%+ in UK opinion polls and go into 2020 on a devo max for Scotland ticket, he might pull off a 'save the union for a while' move that Labour managed in 1997. If not...

     

    Herald doesn't seem to have a lot of faith.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Hmm, Yougov appear to have stopped weighting by country of birth.

     

    So, that 48% Y / 52% no is likely the other way around as their panel is far too rUK born dominated. In their last poll back in May, rUK born were double what they should be and so weighted down heavily.

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