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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    Unless there was an outright Green majority (which is simply never going to happen), all an increased number of Green MPs in Westminster would be able to do is maybe pull things a bit more left liberal.

     

    So in that sense, people can happily vote Green and not worry about some of their more strong left liberal ideas getting anywhere.

     

    They'd certainly form a good counterbalance to the far economic right Tories.

    So people should vote for UKIP if they are anti-EU (but say left leaning), or for reduced immigration even if they are liberal? Etc.

    I understand what your saying but if you vote for a party you must understand and accept what is in their manifesto. No, you don't have to agree with it all (like I don't) but a party which is SO radical must be fairly close to one's ideals.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    So people should vote for UKIP if they are anti-EU (but say left leaning), or for reduced immigration even if they are liberal? Etc.

    I understand what your saying but if you vote for a party you must understand and accept what is in their manifesto. No, you don't have to agree with it all (like I don't) but a party which is SO radical must be fairly close to one's ideals.

     

    If you get beyond the puerile crap the leaders spout for the daily soundbites, there are clear differences between the parties; most folk pick the one that comes closest to what they think.  For example, I'll put up with the Scottish Greens' policies on economics and the EU because I approve of most of the rest of their policies.  There'll be other folk who may vote UKIP despite not liking their policies on education and social policy.  Otherwise a lot of people wouldn't vote at all!

     

    This is democracy... it might not be perfect but it's better than the alternatives.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    David Blunket:

     
    “Once people have stopped listening, once their minds are switched off to even rational argument then it’s extremely difficult to win that back,†he told BBC Radio 4’s World at One.  
     
    “I think that’s happening. People are not even prepared to take leaflets or to engage in discussion. It’s as though a great part of the Scottish nation have switched off and that is so dangerous for the Union and for the future of Britain as a whole and I think what happens from 8 May will need something different to the normal run of politics.

     

     
    Nothing like a bit of condescension to win over hearts and minds eh?
     
    You are not rational you jocks. Now shut up, look at me and listen good.
     
    Oh, and how many times since 2007 have Labour told us their problem is they 'stopped listening to the electorate and need to re-engage with them'?
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    I am frankly so sick and tired of being told that I am no longer thinking rationally by Labour activists. 

     

    The arrogance in suggesting that just because you argue a different position from them that you are no longer thinking clearly is frankly astounding. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

     

    David Blunket:
     
     
    Nothing like a bit of condescension to win over hearts and minds eh?
     
    You are not rational you jocks. Now shut up, look at me and listen good.
     
    Oh, and how many times since 2007 have Labour told us their problem is they 'stopped listening to the electorate and need to re-engage with them'?

     

    What Blunket actually means is that the Scots are thinking rationally, and they don't like that one bit.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Some Labour councillors now clearly not thinking rationally. 

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/splits-as-labour-councillors-refuse-cash-donation-to-mps-campaigns.124679809

     

    Splits as Labour councillors refuse cash donation to MPs' campaigns

     
    LABOUR MPs fighting for their political survival in a traditional party heartland have been denied financial backing by colleagues on the council.
     
    In a clear sign of party fractures amid the most intense pressure it has ever faced in Scotland, North Lanarkshire councillors voted against donating anything to their four MPs who many predict will be unseated next week.
     

     

     
    Almost Last days of Pompeii-esque watching the apparent end of a Labour Scotland.
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    I am frankly so sick and tired of being told that I am no longer thinking rationally by Labour activists. 

     

    The arrogance in suggesting that just because you argue a different position from them that you are no longer thinking clearly is frankly astounding. 

     

    The benefit of living where I do is the complete absence of Labour 'activists'. They have so little chance of winning here they just don't bother. Anecdotally I've heard any they do have were told to help out in Aberdeen in the hope of salvaging something there.

     

    Mind you, if Ashcroft is correct the Tories are sitting in 2nd place but I've not seen an activist from them here either. At least the LibDems, bless them, are trying, as was the very pleasant Green candidate who knocked on my door.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    My seat - Moore's - is dominated by SNP in terms of banners, stickers etc. Also stuff through the door and activists. Not like everywhere in terms of activists, but the most dominant / you do see them out and about.

     

    Second place with just a couple of field signs are the Tories. Not seen any activists though. Only a couple of mailed letters through my door.

     

    So far, the only Lib sign I've seen outside the house of a friend in Lauder who has always been faithful to Moore / knows him.

     

    Northern Irish unionist and to be honest, a bit of a closet Tory to a large extent. But then that's what the remaining lib vote is really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    I have often wondered if signs and posters actual have any influence over people's votes. They, regardless of party, simply suggest to me that someone in the property or vicinity strongly supports one political party. Perhaps that is the point (as I have never really thought differently about a party when I have seen lots of its posters or heard of the party having x million members).

    I was having an indepth discussion today at work about the forthcoming election and it is interesting just how many people (albeit in that smallish sample) that have not made up their minds who to vote for. Perhaps that is against the grain of opinion polls but it seems to be the view of a large number of people I have spoken with. There are of course also a number who know which party they will vote for and are quite vocal about it (and that counts across a number of parties).

    It should be an interesting week but I would be surprised if tonight's Q&A sessions with the party leaders has a massive effect.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Posters in windows I imagine has very little effect if any.

     

    I mean it's hardly as If I'd consider Tory because the farmer down the valley has put up a big Lamont sign in his field!

     

    I think the main effect would be a moral boost for canvassers or the opposite if there's a lack of them for your side I suppose.

     

    Lots of DKs isn't against the grain. You always get around 25% DK. In the UK its normally 35%. They're the ones who normally end up not voting, especially if they are DK at this stage. Many of these will swear blind to you that they plan to vote, just as they say that to pollsters. Very, very few people will say that they won't vote; it makes them look silly. Pollsters normally get at most 5% saying that, then the turnout is 65%...

     

    Polls right now have the lowest level of DK I've ever seen in a GE in Scotland; an effect of the iref I suspect. Only TNS had a higher level, but it always has that due to face to face methodology.

     

    Normally the DKs that do vote break evenly in proportion to the do knows. This is why standard practice in polling is simply to exclude them as that is the same as proportional re-allocation.

     

    The only time DKs might break for one particular option is if it seems everyone else is doing that.

     

    This might be happening in Scotland. DK was higher a couple of months back, but has been reducing, mainly to SNP, hence the increased boost for them. It has largely come from women, who normally have a higher level of DK.

     

    In fact, remarkably, for the first time, women are now more supportive of the SNP than men. The same thing happened in 2011; men swung to the SNP first, then women later; in the last month or two. SNP support came close to that for men, but even in the end was a bit lower.

     

    A similar thing happened in 2010; the DK broke more for Labour in late stage as polls showed Labour VI rising sharply ahead of the vote, i.e. they were best placed as an anti-Tory vote.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    For a look back in time, our latest three polls (TNS, MORI, Yougov) at this time back in 2010 gave, on average:

     

    (difference from result)

     

    40(-2)% Lab

    23(+3)% SNP

    20(+1)% Lib

    15(-2)% Con

     

    Basically bang on within normal MoE (+/-3%).

     

    DK was much higher too; about 10-15% so.

     

    Interestingly, the max range between different polls was 8 points in 2010. This time its lower at 6 maybe. This could be due to the lower level of DK / higher certain to vote level.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    As I said we will see in a week's time. Surely that is not a contentious point!

     

    I was writing my post when you typed that. I didn't see it until I posted.

     

    I agree. We are in somewhat uncharted territory!

     

    As you know, my big hope is 30 seats. That's a majority.

     

    Any more would just be a big bonus.

     

    I'm still nervous of course. Maybe I shouldn't be because the polls said in the iref that Yes wasn't going to do it - if it was, we needed some shy Yes voters to magically appear on the night. In the end, the pollsters called it way within MoE.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    God I'm glad I've already voted, otherwise I'd still be giving myself headaches about whether to vote SG or SG. I feel really sorry for all those DKs. Lol, I'm having a flippant evening so probably best sign off before I get banned.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    God I'm glad I've already voted, otherwise I'd still be giving myself headaches about whether to vote SG or SG. I feel really sorry for all those DKs. Lol, I'm having a flippant evening so probably best sign off before I get banned.

     

    The good thing about voting Scottish Green is it can be added to the % for SNP to total '% voted for pro-indy parties'.

     

    All counts. :)

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    Do you know what the policies of the Greens are?

    Or are you voting for them as a 'protest' vote?...

    (I told my self repeatedly that I wouldn't 'bite' but I've failed yet again)

    Yes I know why I am voting Green, not to spite the other parties....millionaire politicians was just a observation and can see why you questioned me. I don't agree will all the Green party policies, but are closer to my views.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Good news on the oil and gas front.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-32511554

     

    Drilling on Loyal field west of Shetland starts
     
    The start of drilling on the Loyal field - marking the start of a seven-year drilling campaign west of Shetland - has been announced.
     
    One mother of a development this one. Real biggie.
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    Posted
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania

     

    Good news on the oil and gas front.

     

     
    One mother of a development this one. Real biggie.

     

     

    I guess you have very strict environmental regulations in place in regards to drilling sites and transportation issues. And a reasonably good environmental record. Is there ever any public concern about exploiting new oil reserves in terms of people being concerned about possible threat to natural environment there? I never hear of it, and that surprises me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I guess you have very strict environmental regulations in place in regards to drilling sites and transportation issues. And a reasonably good environmental record. Is there ever any public concern about exploiting new oil reserves in terms of people being concerned about possible threat to natural environment there? I never hear of it, and that surprises me.

     

    UK continental shelf one of the strictest areas globally for this and yes, the record is very good. Offshore drilling was, to a large extent, born off the coast of Scotland.

     

    ----

     

    Note I flagged this because I work in the industry. Although note my last post about energy production in Scotland was on renewables which I'm a big backer of (the oil industry is diversifying into it too, including my co + institute).

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Well, Ed's 'I'd rather let the Tories in than work with the SNP' chat is going down well judging by social media.

     

    Could potentially give a wee boost to the SNP from the looks of it.

     

    Meanwhile, on the subject of postal voting:

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/general-election-administrators-warned-to-prevent-illegal-postal-vote-tallies-by-poli.124835285

     

    General Election administrators warned to prevent illegal postal vote tallies by political agents after Scottish Referendum row
     
    ELECTORAL administrators and returning officers for the General Election have been warned to keep the postal ballot secret and told that voting tallies by political agents is illegal.
     
    The guidance has come as a result of the experience during the Scottish Referendum when it was alleged pro-union campaigners breached electoral law by examining postal ballot papers to gauge how well the Better Together campaign was doing before the polls had closed on September 18.

     

     

     

    Police investigation over the iref postal vote fraud is still ongoing. Ruth has been questioned a few times now. Not sure what the latest is.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Ancrum
  • Weather Preferences: HOT SUNSHINE!
  • Location: Ancrum

    The result should have been declared null and void and they should have been prosecuted SS, and held another Ref.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    The result should have been declared null and void and they should have been prosecuted SS, and held another Ref.

     

    I think that's taking it a bit far, however I'd like to see what the reaction was if it had happened the other way around?

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Great news for the independence movement last night as Ed says Scottish votes are irrelevant.

    We shall see of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I think that's taking it a bit far, however I'd like to see what the reaction was if it had happened the other way around?

     

    I'd agree. However, if it turns out to be true, i.e. that Better Together did illegally study postal votes well before the count began, then it would weaken any case against another future iref. After all, it does seem BT changed their campaign very late in a panic what with Broon, the 'vow' and a massive ramp of scare stories. This was quite possibly in response to postal votes not looking quite as good as hoped.

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