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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Prof C's analysis of the MORI poll.

     

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/ipsos-mori-find-a-swing-to-the-snp-too/

     

    He concludes that figures already include tactical voting it seems and any more might save Labour maybe a seat or two.

     

    I did say this before - tactical voting normally shows in polls. It was very, very obvious in 2010; SNP slipping from highs of ~33% in mid to late 2009 slowly back to Labour and the Libs as the prospect of the Tories returning loomed closer. The more this occurred, the more it accelerated ahead of voting day. I can't help but feel what was happening was the electorate was increasingly backing the parties looking like winning which were not Tory.

     

    Then it was Lab +  LIb. Right now, it's, well, SNP.

     

    Touch wood, fingers crossed etc.

     

    Looks like we are living in the last 7 days of a Labour Scotland.

    Was having a look through some articles from 2011 and some of the parallels are uncanny - e.g. this one:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/apr/17/iain-gray-scottish-labour-leader

     

    Gray is adamant that the "ground war" – the constituency-level campaigning beneath the media's radar – is where Labour is winning. It is a strategy that won Labour past general elections and the last two byelections.

    Party activists have personally contacted 750,000 voters in recent months and will have spoken to one million by polling day, he said.

    "I think the ground war is enormously significant. I have called this the doorstep election and I think it will be won or lost on the doorstep," he said. "The response we're getting on the ground is very positive [and] I'm very optimistic about the outcome.""

     

    Gray is adamant that the "ground war" – the constituency-level campaigning beneath the media's radar – is where Labour is winning. It is a strategy that won Labour past general elections and the last two byelections.

    Party activists have personally contacted 750,000 voters in recent months and will have spoken to one million by polling day, he said.

    "I think the ground war is enormously significant. I have called this the doorstep election and I think it will be won or lost on the doorstep," he said. "The response we're getting on the ground is very positive [and] I'm very optimistic about the outcome."

     Or this one:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/may/02/scottish-elections-liberal-democrats-snp

    "Alexander and his Lib Dem colleagues are adamant the polls are too crude, and fail to take account of local loyalties and local politics. Outside the political bubbles of Westminster and Holyrood, voters think for themselves, Alexander said, particularly in the Highlands. "I'm just not seeing the levels of support for the SNP you're seeing in the polls. I'm just not seeing it," he said."

    and 

    "Gray has focused instead on threatening the large number of undecided voters - one poll suggested a third of voters had yet to choose a party - with alarmist warnings about the apparent threat Salmond poses to the future of the UK."

     

    The main difference is this time the lead in the polls is 20-30 points rather than 10-15 points, and we've already seen how seemingly strong Lib Dem incumbents can be dislodged with relative ease in their former heartlands.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    "Gray has focused instead on threatening the large number of undecided voters - one poll suggested a third of voters had yet to choose a party - with alarmist warnings about the apparent threat Salmond poses to the future of the UK."

     

     

    I believe this is current Lab + Lib strategy?

     

    Albeit it there's some confusion as to whether it's Salmond or Sturgeon that's the threat.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    It certainly has proved an effective strategy for SNP to effectively put Salmond into the broom cupboard for this election - that stupid tory poster of him shows how much more easily he can be used as a focus for their spite than can the fragrant Nicola.  How this is being pulled off when it's actually Salmond who's standing for election, not her, is the bit that I really admire.  Even on here, SNP folk are stunningly silent on the matter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    It certainly has proved an effective strategy for SNP to effectively put Salmond into the broom cupboard for this election - that stupid tory poster of him shows how much more easily he can be used as a focus for their spite than can the fragrant Nicola.  How this is being pulled off when it's actually Salmond who's standing for election, not her, is the bit that I really admire.  Even on here, SNP folk are stunningly silent on the matter.

     

    Sturgeon has the top job in the far more important Holyrood parliament and she's very much her own woman.

     

    As for Salmond...

     

    'Strike me down and I shall become more powerful than you can ever imagine'.

     

    He's the new loose cannon backbencher. A perfect role and one more suited to his style to be honest.

     

    He knew his time was done; he had his chance to lead Scotland to a Yes but didn't get there. Time to hand over the reigns to the next generation.

     

    And boy is it that. 60%+ SNP in the under 55's. 70% in the 18-24's. Nicola is the SNP leader for generation Yes.

     

    I admit though it's a blinder.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    It certainly has proved an effective strategy for SNP to effectively put Salmond into the broom cupboard for this election - that stupid tory poster of him shows how much more easily he can be used as a focus for their spite than can the fragrant Nicola.  How this is being pulled off when it's actually Salmond who's standing for election, not her, is the bit that I really admire.  Even on here, SNP folk are stunningly silent on the matter.

     

    I said a few pages back that I felt Sturgeon was a lot less divisive than Salmond, it has been a good move to "sideline" him. Salmond is only standing as an MP, he's not leader of the party so why would he be at the forefront of the campaign?

    Time to hand over the reigns to the next generation.

     

     

     

     

    That's more or less what he said not long after he stood down. The emphasis being on the "generation" part...

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    The real blinder played by Nicola, and played in an honest fashion not least by her Cabinet example, is that she has galvanised the ladies. Alex has a bare knuckle bruising style and could at times be off putting.

    The SNP has evolved into a far more inclusive and less combative party since IRef. We now have far more common cause.

    Edited by frogesque
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    That's more or less what he said not long after he stood down. The emphasis being on the "generation" part...

     

    Yep, he is old school. Nicola new.

     

    I was always impressed with her at FMQ's when she stood in. Quite different style; less combative. Or at least would hand you your erse on a plate in a really polite and pleasant manner.

     

    Even more impressed now she's making her own mark. 

     

    As the polls show, we have just one generation which is still holding on to the union; the over 65's. Salmond was the young upstart for them in the 1970's; leader of the 79 group. You have to admire him sticking doggedly with it through the following two decades of wilderness.

     

    He was right though. Holyrood was far, far more important than Westminster if Scotland was ever to become a nation again. It is now the primary centre of Scottish politics and is the place where independence will be legislated for if/when it happens.

     

    Hence Nicola is now in charge there while he sees if he can have a wee bit of fun before fully retiring...

     

    Bet a big smile crossed his face when he saw the wallet pinching posters. Just what he expected.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    He's only 61!  I would still expect him to have another job to do in the HoC over the next parliament.  Perhaps not quite as visible, but a committee room dealer, which is where all the decisions are made in that corrupt cesspit anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    He's only 61!  I would still expect him to have another job to do in the HoC over the next parliament.  Perhaps not quite as visible, but a committee room dealer, which is where all the decisions are made in that corrupt cesspit anyway.

     

    Aye, sure. But he's been Mr SNP since the 70's, even if not leader. It was definitely time for him to take a back seat, if not actually really taking a back seat, but doing something like you say.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Yep, he is old school. Nicola new.

    I was always impressed with her at FMQ's when she stood in. Quite different style; less combative. Or at least would hand you your erse on a plate in a really polite and pleasant manner.

    Even more impressed now she's making her own mark.

    As the polls show, we have just one generation which is still holding on to the union; the over 65's. Salmond was the young upstart for them in the 1970's; leader of the 79 group. You have to admire him sticking doggedly with it through the following two decades of wilderness.

    He was right though. Holyrood was far, far more important than Westminster if Scotland was ever to become a nation again. It is now the primary centre of Scottish politics and is the place where independence will be legislated for if/when it happens.

    Hence Nicola is now in charge there while he sees if he can have a wee bit of fun before fully retiring...

    Bet a big smile crossed his face when he saw the wallet pinching posters. Just what he expected.

    There is now one less over 70 voting Lab. My SIG other now proudly has an SNP badge on her handbag and it's all thanks to Nicola and our local candidate who knocked her door and listened to her concerns re. mental health.

    Make no assumptions, it is still all to play for and age is no barrier

    Edited by frogesque
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    There is now one less over 70 voting Lab. My SIG other now proudly has an SNP badge on her handbag and it's all thanks to Nicola and our local candidate who knocked her door and listened to her concerns re. mental health.

    Make no assumptions, it is still all to play for and age is no barrier

     

    Sorry!

     

    I'm totally generalising. It's just the one age group where a strong attachment to a bygone britishness still holds on, as I've talked about before.

     

    Still SNP is their favourite party, just not 70% like the 18-24s!*

     

    --

     

    *Big green vote for Holyrood in this group for the benefit of HC.

    Anyway, the imperial master speaks.

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/29/david-cameron-time-for-tory-campaign-let-rip-final-week-election-conservatives?CMP=share_btn_tw

     

    Cameron, who said he would have been heartbroken if Scotland had voted to leave the UK in the independence referendum, said he had not foreseen the failure of Labour in Scotland and the success of the SNP. Amid concerns that the continuing political uncertainty in Scotland shows that referendums fail to resolve political dilemmas, the prime minister strongly defended his decision to allow the Scottish and his plans for an EU referendum.

    “Scotland probably would have held their ‘illegal’ referendum, there would have been appalling legal rows between Scotland and the rest of the UK,†he said of the scenario if he had resisted the SNP’s call for a referendum after winning a majority in the 2011 Holyrood election. “It would have been disastrous.â€

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    I believe this is current Lab + Lib strategy?

     

    Albeit it there's some confusion as to whether it's Salmond or Sturgeon that's the threat.

    Fascinating (although frankly long overdue) murmurings about Murphy's leadership:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11572405/Knives-out-for-Jim-Murphy-as-poll-suggests-wipeout-for-Scottish-Labour.html

    And sure enough, at the bottom:

    "A Scottish Labour spokesman said: “Jim is running the best, most professional and most active election campaign ever for Scottish Labour.

    “With a third of voters undecided, our focus is on winning voters over to support Labour. We offer a clear road to a fairer Scotland while the SNP offer a road to a second referendum.â€"

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Aye, sure. But he's been Mr SNP since the 70's, even if not leader. It was definitely time for him to take a back seat, if not actually really taking a back seat, but doing something like you say.

     

    Back bench at least.  I'd put a small wager on front bench within 5 years, such are his skills. Depending on how things hang next Thursday and immediately beyond, of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Back bench at least.  I'd put a small wager on front bench within 5 years, such are his skills. Depending on how things hang next Thursday and immediately beyond, of course.

     

    If you are talking about a UK cabinet position, Salmond has no interest in that. 

     

    If he'd wanted such a position, he'd have joined the Labour party decades ago.

     

    Jeez, he just walked away from being FM of his country to take a chance on becoming the equivalent of a minor MEP for a small country inhabited primarily by foreigner immigrant, scrounging lepers.

     

    It's so not about power for Salmond. That's why they don't get him.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Classic glory hunting from the Sun (although to be fair they have been generally pro-SNP in their Scottish editions for a few years now):

    https://twitter.com/ScottishSun/status/593516366193250307

    Backing the tories in England, which is fairly gutsy although you'd expect that given the Miliband Leveson stuff (although he did try to worm his way back into their favour afterwards). They still would've endorsed him if he'd been 10-15 points ahead though.

    Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Classic glory hunting from the Sun (although to be fair they have been generally pro-SNP in their Scottish editions for a few years now):

     

    I suspect we might see a Yougov from the Sun soon favourable to the SNP...

     

    Was a MORI poll a week or two out commissioned by them ahead of 2011 that suddenly had them all 'Play it again Salm!' when it confirmed a likely landslide.

     

    Got really badly burnt in 2007 sales-wise with this:

     

    master.Scottish_Sun_election_day_2007.jp

     

    Caused circulation to plummet for years following.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Sorry!

     

    I'm totally generalising. It's just the one age group where a strong attachment to a bygone britishness still holds on, as I've talked about before.

     

    Still SNP is their favourite party, just not 70% like the 18-24s!*

     

    --

     

    *Big green vote for Holyrood in this group for the benefit of HC.Anyway, the imperial master speaks.

    No probs SS, I wasn't having a dig, rather just saying that if an over 70,ex Greenham Common, exLabour member can be convinced then almost anyone can.

    I have however given up on the neighbour, orange leaning and Rangers supporter with matching tats. Not worried though, he's for UKIP!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    No probs SS, I wasn't having a dig, rather just saying that if an over 70,ex Greenham Common, exLabour member can be convinced then almost anyone can.

    I have however given up on the neighbour, orange leaning and Rangers supporter with matching tats. Not worried though, he's for UKIP!

    I've met a number of people who don't meet the 'stereotype' of an SNP voter or Yes supporter voting for the party, and age is certainly no determinant of political support (as my 80+ year old die hard SNP supporting grandparents always remind me!) - that MORI poll did actually put the SNP ahead amongst retirees, as it did amongst homeowners, private renters, those living in the most deprived areas, those in the least deprived areas, those in the middle, private sector workers, public sector workers, men, women, almost every demographic listed in fact.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ancrum
  • Weather Preferences: HOT SUNSHINE!
  • Location: Ancrum

    This is why I always liked Alex Salmond - because he isn't about Alex Salmond - he's about Scotland. Every single sound bite on telly had the word "Scotland" in it. Such a change to wee Cleggie or Milliband or Call me Dave - their body language and fake expressions are an insult to the intelligence.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ancrum
  • Weather Preferences: HOT SUNSHINE!
  • Location: Ancrum

    Another thing  (sorry for two posts lol my brain is just waking up here) - part of the reason for the SNP support is that there is no competition. People down south who are on zero hours contracts, who are stuggling like hell with chronic illness but are being sanctioned (and starved sometimes), who are forced to live in 2 bedroom homes because their council has no 1 beds and can't afford the bedroom tax, they have nobody to vote for.

    No hope for them at all - because Labour seems to have abandoned its roots and turned into pink tories.

    I've never voted Labour but my dad did all his life and used to tell me how things were, way back. I know without a doubt that the tories would be quite happy to turn the clock back to the old days - look at Ian Duncan Smith for goddsake. I feel so sorry for voters south of the border who have nobody to vote for!

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    Another thing  (sorry for two posts lol my brain is just waking up here) - part of the reason for the SNP support is that there is no competition. People down south who are on zero hours contracts, who are stuggling like hell with chronic illness but are being sanctioned (and starved sometimes), who are forced to live in 2 bedroom homes because their council has no 1 beds and can't afford the bedroom tax, they have nobody to vote for.

    No hope for them at all - because Labour seems to have abandoned its roots and turned into pink tories.

    I've never voted Labour but my dad did all his life and used to tell me how things were, way back. I know without a doubt that the tories would be quite happy to turn the clock back to the old days - look at Ian Duncan Smith for goddsake. I feel so sorry for voters south of the border who have nobody to vote for!

     

    Well there is the Green Party south of the border. I realize they have not much hope of being in Government, but they get my vote, as the main three parties are  self serving millionaire politicians... just my thoughts!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    Well there is the Green Party south of the border. I realize they have not much hope of being in Government, but they get my vote, as the main three parties are  self serving millionaire politicians... just my thoughts!

    Do you know what the policies of the Greens are?

    Or are you voting for them as a 'protest' vote?...

    (I told my self repeatedly that I wouldn't 'bite' but I've failed yet again)

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Unless there was an outright Green majority (which is simply never going to happen), all an increased number of Green MPs in Westminster would be able to do is maybe pull things a bit more left liberal.

     

    So in that sense, people can happily vote Green and not worry about some of their more strong left liberal ideas getting anywhere.

     

    They'd certainly form a good counterbalance to the far economic right Tories.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    SS,

     

    Do you know of any site producing a bingo card for the "nicht o' the lang dirks" next Thursday.

     

    It would be handy to have something to tick off as they lose.

     

    Notice Deputy Dugdale banging on again about a 2nd referendum at FMQ's. They more they talk about it, the more I think Labour are the one's of want it, to get that winning feel again.

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  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Electoral calculus has updated.

     

    It is showing the highest number of projected SNP seats since its inception and with only a week to go. Only Coatbridge, Chyrston & Bellshill, Glasgow North East, Glasgow South West and Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath buck the trend, although, strangely it has Glasgow South West going SNP on the chance of winning but behind on the predicted votes.

     

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

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