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Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Out of interest have there been any Scottish polls with 1000+ people?

     

    Quite a few (i.e. if you mean full scale Scotland-only polls as opposed to subsets of UK polls which must be treated with care). Latest were 48, 49, 51 and 54% SNP.

     

    All detailed here:

     

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-be-likely-to-vote-in-a-uk-general-election#line

     

    The poll of polls above (in my earlier post) is based on these.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Quite a few (i.e. if you mean full scale Scotland-only polls as opposed to subsets of UK polls which must be treated with care). Latest were 48, 49, 51 and 54% SNP.

     

    All detailed here:

     

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-be-likely-to-vote-in-a-uk-general-election#line

     

    The poll of polls above (in my earlier post) is based on these.

    Yep, worth bearing in mind too that the Ashcroft polls are also 1000 sample polls, so there have been around 40-50 full scale Westminster polls since the new year in Scotland and 20 this month, all basically pointing to the same outcome (the only constituency or national polls in Scotland showing the SNP behind were the most recent poll in the Berwickshire seat which was by 1%, the February East Ren poll which had Murphy ahead by 1% before it was reversed to a 9% lead this month and the Glasgow NE poll from January which had Labour 7% ahead there, and those are all seats you'd only expect the SNP to win if it had already won 50+).

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Farage accuses around 123,000 English people of being anti-English (SNP are the second most popular party for English people living in Scotland after Labour).

     

    Interesting.

     

    My guess this is stage 2 of his plan. Stage 1 was taking the UKIP vote down from touching maybe 4% to 2% in Scotland by calling Scotland a scrounging country getting too much English taxpayer's money. Stage two is calling English people racist against themselves etc, presumably aiming to halve VI again to 1%. That would put UKIP behind the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party again as per the 2011 election result.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/nigel-farage-accuses-snp-of-racism.1430238875

     

    Nigel Farage accuses SNP of racism
     
    NIGEL Farage has courted fresh controversy by branding the SNP "openly racist" and has accused ex-party leader Alex Salmond of fuelling anti-English resentment in Scotland.

     

     
    Anyone got any alternative explanations?
     
    Certainly, I think the name 'UKIP' needs some revision. They are classed as a minor party in Scotland currently polling 2% with that heading down each day all thanks to, erm, Nigel Farage.
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

     

    Farage accuses around 123,000 English people of being anti-English (SNP are the second most popular party for English people living in Scotland after Labour).

     

    Interesting.

     

    My guess this is stage 2 of his plan. Stage 1 was taking the UKIP vote down from touching maybe 4% to 2% in Scotland by calling Scotland a scrounging country getting too much English taxpayer's money. Stage two is calling English people racist against themselves etc, presumably aiming to halve VI again to 1%. That would put UKIP behind the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party again as per the 2011 election result.

     

     
    Anyone got any alternative explanations?
     
    Certainly, I think the name 'UKIP' needs some revision. They are classed as a minor party in Scotland currently polling 2% with that heading down each day all thanks to, erm, Nigel Farage.

     

     

    Be interesting (mildly) to see what support UKIP has in Wales - I would have thought somewhere between that in England and Scotland.  Farage possesses a peculiar English trait of smug ignorance that is borne largely of privilege and insularity.  For him, really, despite protestations, his idea of the Britishness does exclude Scottishness - with apologies for those words.

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    Be interesting (mildly) to see what support UKIP has in Wales - I would have thought somewhere between that in England and Scotland.  Farage possesses a peculiar English trait of smug ignorance that is borne largely of privilege and insularity.  For him, really, despite protestations, his idea of the Britishness does exclude Scottishness - with apologies for those words.

     

    They managed 27.55% of the total votes cast in the 2014 European Elections. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    They managed 27.55% of the total votes cast in the 2014 European Elections. 

     

    For Scotland, or the UK?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    For Scotland, or the UK?

     

    UK.

     

    However, turnouts were very low.

     

    And you can blame SNP voters for our skipper MEP; polls 'had it in the bag' so they disproportionately didn't turn out letting Coburn in by a whisker.

     

    Still, I think it's good to have him. Serves as a reminder of the need to vote.

     

    Incidentally, he thinks Scotland is full up so should stop further immigration from England. Well, that's what I understood from the below; English people being the biggest immigrant group in Scotland.

     

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/ukip-mep-wants-less-immigration-and-more-breeding-1-3423128

     

    SCOTLAND’s newly-elected Ukip MEP David Coburn has said the country should breed more rather than allow increased immigration.

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    UK.

     

    However, turnouts were very low.

     

    And you can blame SNP voters for our skipper MEP; polls 'had it in the bag' so they disproportionately didn't turn out letting Coburn in.

     

    Still, I think it's good to have him. Serves as a reminder of the need to vote.

     

    Rather predictably, I'd suggest that figure was a protest vote more than anything else.

     

    Lol... Just read a quite entertaining piece by oor Marina on the Graun, entitled, 'when you're hot, you're hot.' No prizes who's the subject.  Recommended to bring a smile to your face, if needed.

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/28/nicola-sturgeon-snp-election-campaign

    Edited by Hairy Celt
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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    For Scotland, or the UK?

    Neither, for Wales! I was answering your initial question but should have clarified :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    So are we to get a whole flurry of polls for the last 8 days?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    So are we to get a whole flurry of polls for the last 8 days?

    I expect we'll get a MORI poll, probably another YouGov or two, an ICM, potentially another TNS and maybe a few more Ashcroft polls, so quite a lot for 8 days really!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    I expect we'll get a MORI poll, probably another YouGov or two, an ICM, potentially another TNS and maybe a few more Ashcroft polls, so quite a lot for 8 days really!

    Called it - latest poll has similar changes to the others but from a higher baseline, so we end up with:

    SNP 54%

    Lab 20%

    Con 17%

    LD 5%

    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/318815-stvipsos-mori-poll-snp-set-to-win-all-scots-seats-at-general-election/

    On a UNS that would be enough for the SNP to take Orkney and Shetland too.

    Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Called it - latest poll has similar changes to the others but from a higher baseline, so we end up with:

    SNP 54%

    Lab 20%

    Con 17%

    LD 5%

    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/318815-stvipsos-mori-poll-snp-set-to-win-all-scots-seats-at-general-election/

    On a UNS that would be enough for the SNP to take Orkney and Shetland too.

     

    I'm assuming these are CTV figures, in which case SNP +2, Lab -4 on their last one.

     

    EDIT

     

    Here's the STV graphic:

     

    344156-ipsos-mori-election-poll-graphic-

     

    UNS projection:

     

    344155-ipsos-mori-election-poll-graphic-

     

    Now easy tigers, it's votes on the day that count!

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    I'm assuming these are CTV figures, in which case SNP +2, Lab -4 on their last one.

    Yeah, should've put that in, also Con +5 and LD +1

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
    Lab 20%

    Con 17%

     

    Come on Ruth, one last push, you know you can do it! :crazy:

     

    I never thought I'd have wanted to see the Tories with more votes in Scotland than Labour but hey, after listening to Murphy on Radio Scotland this morning, why not. It'd be the funniest thing to see, although of course the danger then would be it 'legitimising' a Tory rather than a Labour Westminster government i.e. "we even got more votes in Scotland than Labour did".

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Come on Ruth, one last push, you know you can do it! :crazy:

     

    I never thought I'd have wanted to see the Tories with more votes in Scotland than Labour but hey, after listening to Murphy on Radio Scotland this morning, why not. It'd be the funniest thing to see, although of course the danger then would be it 'legitimising' a Tory rather than a Labour Westminster government i.e. "we even got more votes in Scotland than Labour did".

     

    The Schadenfreude had to kick in eventually Ravelin :D

     

    I can now see us in the position by Friday next week that we're all feeling a bit disappointed when the SNP "only" manage to take 44 seats....I can see the headlines now "Disaster for the SNP as they fail to win 15 Scottish seats".

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    MORI:

     

    Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nicola Sturgeon is doing her job as First Minister of Scotland?

    74% Satisfied

    24% Dissatisfied

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    MORI charts:

     

    spom-apr-2015-vi.jpg

     

    spom-apr-2015-leaders-satisfaction.jpg

     

    Ruth has gained some respect it seems. Could be sufficient for the Tories to hold core levels in spite of Dave.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    This is interesting.

     

    Primary preferred party:

    45% SNP

    14% Con

    14% Lab

    5% Lib

     

    This is 'all respondents', i.e. includes the 20% who always say 'DK' and tend not to vote (20% of the sample in this case).

     

     

    post-9421-0-36102700-1430310831_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    This is interesting.

     

    Primary preferred party:

    45% SNP

    14% Con

    14% Lab

    5% Lib

     

    This is 'all respondents', i.e. includes the 20% who always say 'DK' and tend not to vote (20% of the sample in this case).

    The really concerning thing for Labour in this poll is that just 5% of those certain to vote are undecided - not much scope for improvement there, nor from the fact that 86% of SNP voters say they're certain to vote that way compared to just 66% of Labour voters.

    As for the above numbers, Labour probably shouldn't get too excited (not that they will) about the relatively high number of might vote for them if they had a chance - almost half of the 30% comes from SNP voters, who presumably are either SNP/Lab swing voters in Lib Dem, SNP or tory seats or are just being polite to them in not dismissing them entirely, while only 1/3 of tory or LD voters would consider 'tactically' voting for them. In fact, 27% of their support is already in the 'not my first choice' category, so their core vote is really just 14%, and just 11% in the most deprived areas.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    2011 Regional List Result.

     

    Basically where you are free to vote in a PR method for whoever you really support knowing that you can help them get seats even if they did poorly under FPTP constituency...

     

    >50% SNP+Green+Margo+SSP+Solidarity

    26% Lab

    12% Con

    5% Lib

    1% UKIP

     

    Looks a bit familiar huh?

     

    Slide113.jpg

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl

    Despite all the polls I'm not cutting my fingernails, so I can sit up biting them all night on the 7th.   

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    I'm assuming these are CTV figures, in which case SNP +2, Lab -4 on their last one.

     

    EDIT

     

    Here's the STV graphic:

     

    344156-ipsos-mori-election-poll-graphic-

     

    UNS projection:

     

    344155-ipsos-mori-election-poll-graphic-

     

    Now easy tigers, it's votes on the day that count!

     

    Not holding my breath but please, please let it be so!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Prof C's analysis of the MORI poll.

     

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/ipsos-mori-find-a-swing-to-the-snp-too/

     

    He concludes that figures already include tactical voting it seems and any more might save Labour maybe a seat or two.

     

    I did say this before - tactical voting normally shows in polls. It was very, very obvious in 2010; SNP slipping from highs of ~33% in mid to late 2009 slowly back to Labour and the Libs as the prospect of the Tories returning loomed closer. The more this occurred, the more it accelerated ahead of voting day. I can't help but feel what was happening was the electorate was increasingly backing the parties looking like winning which were not Tory.

     

    Then it was Lab +  LIb. Right now, it's, well, SNP.

     

    Touch wood, fingers crossed etc.

     

    Looks like we are living in the last 7 days of a Labour Scotland.

    Edited by scottish skier
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