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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Also, the future:

     

    18-24

    68% SNP

    10% Green

     

    What's great too is that this lot are answer polls now. No up-weighting required which used to be a problem for this group. Suggests strong engagement.

     

     

    I suppose what many of us 'oldies' probably forget is that the voters in the 18-24 age range have grown up with a 'Scottish Parliament' being pretty much an ever present fixture as they became 'politically aware'.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    I don't know. I just look at the polls at worry that something is going to go wrong. Until the first result comes in on May 8th, I won't relax.

     

    The right attitude. Don't assume they're wrong though generally, the polling experts at least deserve a degree of our trust after decades in the business!).

     

    Assume the polls are right and that the hard work is paying off, but that it means nothing until polls close at 10pm on the 7th. Every single vote needs to be fought for between now and then and these polls should act as a sign that we need to work even harder than we are now because determination, hope and spirit always pays in the end!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    I don't know. I just look at the polls at worry that something is going to go wrong. Until the first result comes in on May 8th, I won't relax.

     

    You could always stick a tenner on Labour to win the most seats in Scotland. At odds of 20/1 it might ease the disappointment somewhat if things all go wrong. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Aye, when I was polled by MORI (who got 52% SNP the last two times they polled), the English lady on the phone made me ashamed to say SNP.*

     

    Must be terrifying having someone from TNS sitting with you while you fill in the poll on a tablet PC privately with them just there to help if you need it.#

     

    ---

     

    *This isn't true. She was English, but was really nice and didn't chastise me for my VI.

     

    #TNS do chap your door - it's just how they try to get a proper, random demographic sample - but what you answer is private. 

    I forget that face to face doesn't literally mean that (I did find it funny when people claimed that there was a 'shy no' vote on online surveys). There are a number of voters who always voted Labour but haven't quite committed to voting SNP, and I suspect the high undecideds may be made up partly of these people, but actually there's no reason to assume that they're going to massively break for Labour at the end, since so far all the movement has been in the other direction.

    Actually, looking at 2011, while TNS did slightly underestimate Labour support it was much closer to the final result than YouGov, which, while having changed its methodology a fair bit since then, had a much closer race in its final few polls than TNS or MORI. TNS was, oddly, also closest in 2010 while YouGov actually underestimated the Labour vote, so maybe TNS is just better at estimating the vote share than YouGov.

     

    The main difference between the referendum and this one is that in the run up to the referendum the polls were all over the place until the end when they converged, partly because divergent ones changed their methodology to match the pack. They also had no idea what the turnout would likely be or how to weight politically because so many previous non-voters were likely to vote. This time, every single poll since the referendum has shown the SNP ahead, and every poll since March using various methodologies have shown the SNP ahead by at least 15 points. We've also had seat by seat polling, which is consistent with, or even slightly better for the SNP than, the national polls, and YouGov's nowcast based on all in panellists' voting intentions in each seat is consistent with this too. If the polls were are wrong as they were in the referendum the SNP would still be ahead by 20 points and win almost every seat, and if they were as wrong as they were in 1992 (when they were fundamentally flawed) they'd still win by about 15%. I'm not taking anything for granted and I'll still be a nervous wreck until the first actual numbers come in (the exit poll being solid might calm me down a bit) but there's no reason to doubt the current polling evidence other than it just looks too good to be true.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    More bad news for Fife

    Glenrothes paper makers, Tullis Russell have been placed into administration. Some 325 jobs will go with another 150 in jeopardy.

    BBC website has details.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Scotland Tonight live from Inverness?   Channel 4 at 8pm.   Should be interesting.

     

    https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/592669729690628098

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Lord Ashcroft's report of his focus groups in Scotland makes for an amusing read.

     

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/ashcroft-national-poll-con-36-lab-30-lib-dem-9-ukip-11-green-7/

     

    ...The belief that the SNP would keep Labour honest and ensure Scotland got the best possible deal helped to counter the argument that a vote for the SNP would let the Tories in. Some said this hardly mattered anyway since there was nothing to choose between a government led by Labour or the Conservatives (“it’s just a different shade of sh**eâ€)...

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Oh dear, looks like Labour are having their own 'unskewed polls' moment:

    https://twitter.com/markmcdsnp/status/592766590455779328

    At least then the republicans only had to 'unskew' them by about 6% in 2012, this time it's more like 20% :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Rumour is that Lord Ashcroft is a closet centre-left Scottish nationalist.

    It's weird that pollsters who previously prided themselves on accurately predicting elections decided to throw their weight en masse behind making the SNP look good. 

    Much better to trust the Lib Dems' own fantasy polling:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/27/lib-dems-ramp-up-scottish-campaign-after-polling-data-boost?CMP=share_btn_tw

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    No just TNS hitting above 50%...

     

    Survation online for the record

     

    https://twitter.com/Record_Politics/status/592800267558625284

     

    BREAKING: Extraordinary Daily Record #GE2015 poll SNP: 51% Lab: 26% Con: 14% LD: 5% Others: 4%

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    No just TNS hitting above 50%...

     

    Survation online for the record

     

    That was a mistake; it should have been:

     

    Scottish Greens: 95%; Scottish NooLabor: 0.6%; Scottish Toffs: 0.001%; Scottish FibDems: 0.565%; SNP: er, the rest. Fixed the fkr easy. Good stuff this fair-trade beer :drunk:

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    That was a mistake; it should have been:

     

    Scottish Greens: 95%; Scottish NooLabor: 0.6%; Scottish Toffs: 0.001%; Scottish FibDems: 0.565%; SNP: er, the rest. Fixed the fkr easy. Good stuff this fair-trade beer :drunk:

     

    Aye, was reading it wrong.

     

    Here's the Holyrood constituency VI for example:

     

    54% Popular People's Republic of the Black Isle (HC for FM!)

    24% Lab

    13% Con

    5% Lib

    2% Green

    2% UKIP

     

    ---

     

    On the Holyrood list, it's PPRBI - HC for leader! on 10%* vs Tories on 11%.

     

    You are getting there HC.

     

    *=Greens, kinda obviously

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

    No shy unionists down here in the borders that's for sure.

     

    Farmer down the valley has replaced his 'Better Together' field sign with a 'Lamont' one now.

     

    Still can't understand why, with every newspaper (bar a couple) and channel on your side you'd feel the need to be shy.

     

    Polling evidence from the iref said Yes were shy if there was any shyness going on; hence MORI and TNS which are non-anonymous only caught up (with online) right at the end.

    Just an observation but during the referendum the No s (Better Together)   signs   in fields were mostly owner occupiers and the Yes s were mostly tenant farmers

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    Posted
  • Location: Ancrum
  • Weather Preferences: HOT SUNSHINE!
  • Location: Ancrum

    That's what I was saying to the husband yesterday - the rich landowners have Lamont signs up in fields and the poor bloody peasant farmers have SNP Kerr.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    That's an interesting observation and one I hadn't thought about being no expert on farming.

     

    I did always wonder why in Scotland the rural areas were yellow (SNP or Lib), yet in England blue. I'm assuming this is related.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ancrum
  • Weather Preferences: HOT SUNSHINE!
  • Location: Ancrum

    Neighbour says that the farmers want to stay in the EU and that's why they are SNP. That's just what she says thought, Idk if it's right.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Latest Scottish PoP from Prof C, inc survation.

     

    If that did come off, it would be the lowest share of the vote for all 3 main UK parties ever in addition to a record SNP level.

     

    Slide112.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I suspect this might have something to do with the apparent further rise in SNP support polls are showing.

     

    https://commonspace.scot/articles/1182/negative-reporting-of-the-snp-in-uk-press-has-increased-dramatically-in-recent-weeks-research-shows

     

    Negative reporting of the SNP in UK press has increased dramatically in recent weeks, research shows
     
    Negative reporting of the SNP in the media has increased dramatically over the past two weeks of recorded media monitoring, according to research.
     
    The report, by Loughborough University Communications Research Centre, found that in the week of 30 March to 8 April – during which time Nicola Sturgeon was widely credited with a debate victory on 2 April - the SNP received the most positive coverage in the UK national press. 
     
    However, from 9-15 April - when the Tories stepped up their anti-SNP strategy - the nationalists received by far the most negative coverage, and from 16-22 April only Labour received a higher negativity rate than the SNP. (Click here to read more).

     

     

     

    Certainly an odd approach to take if your goal was to 'save the union'.*

     

    ---

     

    *Quite a few 'X days to save the union' headlines going around. Reminds me of 1997.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Aye, saw the 10 days to save the union... Must have all been a bad dream and it's 8th September, still time to get that Yes result! Oh wait what's that white stuff outside the window??  :cold:  :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    When I followed the link which SS posted above I came across this article from December:

     

    https://commonspace.scot/articles/80/alan-wyllie-talk-of-a-labour-wipe-out-is-premature-the-snp-must-be-careful

     

    I'm not sure the author would be proud of what he wrote now? In fairness to the guy we're all great with hindsight :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    This is good news. Had stalled a bit recently, but getting back on track.

     

    Certainly a match made in heaven; Norway's pumped storage married to Scotland's wind. Excess exported to Europe via Denmark.

     

    https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/77807/norway-power-link-could-create-200-jobs/

     

    Norway power link could create 200 jobs
     
    Plans have been tabled for a £2billion power link between Aberdeenshire and Scandinavia which could create 200 jobs.
     
    The NorthConnect scheme would carry electricity generated in Scotland and Norway to both nations to meet demand.

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Out of interest have there been any Scottish polls with 1000+ people?

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Out of interest have there been any Scottish polls with 1000+ people?

     

    Yeah we had a referendum last year. Unfortunately some of us were taken in by the lies from all the English folitician visitors. Otherwise we'd be looking at a sunny future already.

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