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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Just the inverse of the rubbish you've had for a long time. Politicians are afraid of change but it's coming because they have neglected the feeling s of people they represent. The daft thing is you want to be part of the EU dominated by Germany where you're going to have even less say. Give ten years of Independence from and England perhaps less and you will want out of the EU as well.

     

    I'd trust Merkel - and even Hollande - a lot more than Cameron or even Millibum. 

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I'd almost take it as a compliment to see this sort of coverage.

     

    I do. Free advertising!

    I'd trust Merkel.

     

    You evil Tory! I knew it!

     

    (© smear campaign)

     

    :)

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    I do. Free advertising!

     

    You evil Tory! I knew it!

     

    (© smear campaign)

     

    :)

     

    Now that's below the belt!  :D 

     

    Just stuck my nose in the UK GE thread and have decided to keep clear of it from now on.  Seems to be a rotating swarm of UKIPpers on the loose most nights. :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Now that's below the belt!  :D

     

    Just stuck my nose in the UK GE thread and have decided to keep clear of it from now on.  Seems to be a rotating swarm of UKIPpers on the loose most nights. :wallbash:

     

    Ha ha,

     

    Sure. It's the 'We are not PC; you should be able to say what you think even if that offends people!' brigade getting all offended when people do that....

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Some fascinating reading tonight - first off this poll:

    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/592075758689976321

    and also this article:

    https://medium.com/@gordonguthrie/strange-times-and-constitutional-politics-2085123baa0a

    While the parallels are certainly inexact, there's a lot of familiar stuff in there, especially when you consider the article was written in 2007.

    Actually, the strategy stuff at the end, while the circumstances are very different, also has a degree of relevance too - you can see the struggle the Westminster and Holyrood views are having reconciling each other, and while a significant number of his identified 'national unionists' have shifted positions there still remain a significant, and crucial, number of people who gave the union another chance but are now starting to question the feasibility of it. 

    Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    New Panelbase poll. Changes on early April (2nd).

     

    SNP 48% (+3)
    Labour 27% (-2)
    Conservatives 16% (+2)
    Liberal Democrats 4% (n/c)
    UKIP 3% (-1)
    Greens 2% (n/c)
     
    All changes just within MoE but movement to SNP would agree with Yougov, TNS and last Survation.
     
    Also:
     
    Should Scotland be an independent country?
    Yes 49%
    No 51%
     
    Which ties in with what Yougov have been getting, i.e. roughly 50/50. Weighted to the actual iref result so does back up movement to Yes since September. I expect it to stay like this until we see the aftermath of May 7th.
     
    EDIT
     
    Of note... people are now actually voting / have already voted by post. So some of the above will already be ready for counting.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    SS, you still got a copy of the Ashcroft polls data tables for Scotland from the start of March, specifically for Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine?

    We got a Tory leaflet in yesterday with the usual 'only we can beat the SNP here' poll graph, which refers to the 'Lord Ashcroft polls 11-19th Feb 2015'. The problem is, the figures they present are

    SNP 39, Con 27, LD 15, Lab 13

    which wasn't quite how I remembered them. I checked and the actual headline figures, dated 4th Mar, were

    SNP 39, Con 25, LD 20, Lab 10

    Are the Tories using the figures from without the 'incumbency factor' to make it look like the gap between them and the LibDems is larger than it probably is?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    SS, you still got a copy of the Ashcroft polls data tables for Scotland from the start of March, specifically for Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine?

     

     

    This is what ashcroft reported and is the results of the 'thinking about your own constituency' Q:

    Aberdeenshire-West-Kincardine-LAM124A.pn

     

    Tories are quoting the other straight VI numbers.

     

    Also, looks like 2010 weighting + spiral of silence adjustment (which assigns DKs back to 2010 votes to varying extents) hits SNP here a bit.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    This I believe is Prof C's latest PoP, inc the panelbase:

     

    Slide19.jpg

     

    The Prof gets this for a uniform swing:

     

    54 SNP

    4 Lab

    1 Lib

    0 Con

    0 UKIP

    0 Green

     

    Although we know the swing isn't uniform, but higher in Lab seats.

     

    Seems ludicrous though. I'd jump for joy at 30!

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Thanks SS, I thought it might be the straight VI numbers ie choose which most suits your narrative.

    Overall polls still looking surprisingly good at this stage but no complacency. Heading out later to help with canvassing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Thanks SS, I thought it might be the straight VI numbers ie choose which most suits your narrative.

     

    Even Prof C does this. He includes the last two Yougov polls for no apparent reason. This leans his poll of polls towards a single pollster, which is why you normally only include one from each in PoP analysis.

     

    If he just included the last poll from each company that have reported recently, then the numbers would be:

     

    50% SNP

    25% Lab

    15% Con

    5% Lib

    3% Green

    2% UKIP

     

    Which is probably why he didn't. Hits two magic numbers; 50% for SNP and that double Labour.

     

    Anyway, consider prof C's PoP conservative.

     

    Happy canvassing. Hope panelbase puts a spring in your step!

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    One of the reasons that I don't work as journalist or a political commentator is that deep down I don't really have a clue.

     

    The big worry is that most people who work as journalists or political commentators don't have a clue either. This article from the Liverpool Echo:

     

    http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/news-opinion/general-election-nicola-sturgeon-agree-9120941

     

    Contains the following quote from the author:

     

     

     

    What is most difficult to stomach about all this for me, though, is that everyone seems to have forgotten that in the midst of all this talk about Sturgeon, people seem to have forgotten that she is not even standing for election to the UK parliament.

     

    Sometimes, I think she forgets that herself.

     

    The idea of someone not even elected to the parliament itself potentially having any hand in the government of the country is a troubling notion.

     

    I almost choked on my lunch with laughter at the last sentence of the part I've quoted. Not a shred of irony :rofl: Although a wee bit of research has found the Liverpool Echo is owned by Trinity Mirror so perhaps not a surprise that they can't write balanced articles?

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    Do we have any indication as to which way undecideds are leaning?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Do we have any indication as to which way undecideds are leaning?

     

    Well, in the panelbase, ~85% gave an intention.

     

    The remainder are the group that always say 'DK' or 'WNV' and don't vote. Like in the iref.

     

    SNP intenders are the highest 'definitely made up my mind' on 89%. That would still yield a landslide territory 43% SNP if only those people stuck with SNP and nobody else moved to them.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    One of the reasons that I don't work as journalist or a political commentator is that deep down I don't really have a clue.

     

    The big worry is that most people who work as journalists or political commentators don't have a clue either. This article from the Liverpool Echo:

     

    http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/news-opinion/general-election-nicola-sturgeon-agree-9120941

     

    Contains the following quote from the author:

     

     

     

     

    I almost choked on my lunch with laughter at the last sentence of the part I've quoted. Not a shred of irony :rofl: Although a wee bit of research has found the Liverpool Echo is owned by Trinity Mirror so perhaps not a surprise that they can't write balanced articles?

     

    It's easy to forget - well I forget anyway - that for a lot of folk south of Cumbria - Northumberland, Scotland is another country that they have little or no experience of apart from the Scots who head south.  I guess this is partly how the English gutter press can get away with the crap they've been spouting recently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Times are a changing.

     

    http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thomsons-view/snp-election-2015-labour-clyde-business/9411

     

    Life, politics and election in the last commercial shipbuilder on the Clyde
     
    “So that will all come down,†says Jim McColl airily, pointing at the handsome old red-brick facade and entrance to the shipyard.
     
    “Yes – it’s a shame in a way but we need more room to expand the slipway and the yard.â€
     
    Wha? Stop. Cut. Rewind.
     
    But yes – you got me right first time.
     
    Here at Inverclyde, near Greenock, a shipyard boss is talking about expansion! Tell me when you last heard that word in relation to a shipyard anywhere in these islands?...
     
     
    ...The men here note it was Alex Salmond who put in a shift to get this place back from the brink only last year. From young apprentices to men with almost 40 years in the yard, there is the sense of a new beginning. A dawn. A sense of something possible.
     
    Sure – this is still Labour by tradition, but it was down all those years that saw shipyard after shipyard after shipyard go. We could not find one single welder or shipwright here who said this area would still go Labour for sure come 7 May.
     
    Even to talk in those terms would, until very recently, have been unthinkable.
     
    But now the SNP is thinkable. Just like expanding a shipyard on the Clyde has become thinkable.
     
    All around us, in the sparking of plate-welding and the hammering of rust-coloured sheet-steel, the old certainties are going down the slip into the Clyde to be washed away.

     

    Yellow Clydeside. Who'd a thunk it.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Do we have any indication as to which way undecideds are leaning?

    From what I've seen in the tabs around 50% or more of undecideds didn't vote in either 2011 or 2010, which suggests that they're probably not that likely to vote this time, although from that panelbase poll it seems that significantly more of them voted No than Yes, and like the general population significantly more of them voted for Labour than the SNP last time, although there's also a disproportionately high number of 2010 Libs too.

    The thing that makes me think most of the undecideds are likely non-voters is that the number of undecideds picked up by Ashcroft in his latest polling is actually higher in England than it was in the Scottish seats - around 15-17% typically compared to 8-12% here. Given the likely turnout differential between Scotland and rUK I think there's unlikely to be much change to the headline poll numbers either here or in the UK as a whole. Whether the poll baselines are right or not is another matter, but I haven't seen much to suggest that they're drastically wrong in either case.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    There seems to be a little bit of a concensus that the SNP will win 40+ seats and be in a position to prop up Labour.

    From what I'm hearing today its seems Labour will bring forward a Queen's speech and dare the SNP to vote against it.

    Would the SNP vote against it and risk the Torys getting in?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    There seems to be a little bit of a concensus that the SNP will win 40+ seats and be in a position to prop up Labour.

    From what I'm hearing today its seems Labour will bring forward a Queen's speech and dare the SNP to vote against it.

    Would the SNP vote against it and risk the Torys getting in?

     

    If that came to pass, the SNP could also just vote down a subsequent Tory Queen's speech.

     

    Would labour dare not to join them?

     

    If the SNP get the numbers projected, and particularly given their constitutional stance, any UK government not involving them somehow would seriously lack democratic legitimacy, notably for Scotland. It would be a new 'democratic deficit' (© Scottish Labour, Liberal Democrats and SNP) of epic proportions.

     

    After all, as I mentioned in the UK thread, the founding international Treaty of Union which binds the UK together is between two partners; Scotland and England.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    If that came to pass, the SNP could also just vote down a subsequent Tory Queen's speech.

     

    Would labour dare not to join them?

     

    If the SNP get the numbers projected, and particularly given their constitutional stance, any UK government not involving them somehow would seriously lack democratic legitimacy, notably for Scotland. It would be a new 'democratic deficit' (© Scottish Labour, Liberal Democrats and SNP) of epic proportions.

     

    After all, as I mentioned in the UK thread, the founding international Treaty of Union which binds the UK together is between two partners; Scotland and England.

     

    Does it not come down to what the English parties think they can get away with though? If (if, if) Labour get say 30 seats more than the Tories, they could put forward a Queen's speech - but that would happen only after Cameron had resigned.  So Millibrained would be seen as the only legitimate PM in England, and it might be seen as just a spoiling move to vote it down.  Constitutional mess ensues.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    I think the election result is going to be close enough that irrespective of whether Labour or Tories have the most seats, the coalition will bring a Queens Speech to Parliament - the question then is will Labour vote to bring down the coalition even if the Tories are the biggest party?

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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    Does it not come down to what the English parties think they can get away with though? If (if, if) Labour get say 30 seats more than the Tories, they could put forward a Queen's speech - but that would happen only after Cameron had resigned.  So Millibrained would be seen as the only legitimate PM in England, and it might be seen as just a spoiling move to vote it down.  Constitutional mess ensues.

    Yeah, I think this is pretty accurate.

    If Cameron gets voted down and can't get there then Labour will have a crack. If the SNP vote both down it won't look good.

    A very interesting tactic by Labour and in theory, sounds quite a good one. However, in reality there is a myriad of possibilities and permutations which will be obstacles to this plan running smoothly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Labour really do seem to think they have the SNP over a barrel.  A not out of the question scenario is where Labour abstains on the Queens Speech, David Cameron with or without the Lib Dems survives as a minority government, the Tories bring forward a DevoMax bill that would remove Scottish MPs from Westminster at the next UK GE in return for DevoMax and an elected senate replacing the House of Lords - passed with SNP support and on passing into law, Labour brings forward a confidence motion which gets SNP backing and the coalition finally falls a year or 18months into it's second term. At that point Labour basically dares the SNP to bring down it's new government, the SNP can do so safe in the knowledge that triggering a UK GE triggers the Scotland Act of 2016 and DevoMax - Labour would then be up super dupere creek without a paddle irrespective of whether people were annoyed with the SNP because there would never be Scottish MPs at Westminster again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Party on ~25% of the vote has party on nearly 50% of the vote over barrel.

     

    Ed's a bright one so he is.

     

    Any UK government that doesn't somehow involve the SNP (should they get a majority of Scots MPs) is setting the latter up for a new majority in 2016, likely even bigger than 2011, backed up by an even bigger Green vote. Manifestos yet to be decided...

     

    Polls right now have 60% of MSPs SNP + Green. How would that look if Westminster has been playing silly burgers for a year?

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    If that came to pass, the SNP could also just vote down a subsequent Tory Queen's speech.

     

    Would labour dare not to join them?

     

    If the SNP get the numbers projected, and particularly given their constitutional stance, any UK government not involving them somehow would seriously lack democratic legitimacy, notably for Scotland. It would be a new 'democratic deficit' (© Scottish Labour, Liberal Democrats and SNP) of epic proportions.

     

    After all, as I mentioned in the UK thread, the founding international Treaty of Union which binds the UK together is between two partners; Scotland and England.

     

    Cameron as PM gets the first Queens Speech on May 27th unless he resigns first. If he can't pass it or resigns Labour then gets the Queens speech. If the SNP did vote Labour's down then presumably the Tories and Labour would immediately repeal the fixed terms act and call a second election or alternatively we'd have an executive (like we do now during the election period) but no government than act beyond the Royal Prerogative.

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