Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Scottish Politics 2011-2017


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 30.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Scottish-Irish Skier

    8874

  • mountain shadow

    1528

  • skifreak

    1435

  • frogesque

    1306

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Someone's feeling the strain.

     

    Eh?? Even by Murpho's normal standard that is bizarre (assuming it's real in the first place). This is turning into the longest, weirdest political suicide the world has ever seen.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Eh?? Even by Murpho's normal standard that is bizarre (assuming it's real in the first place). This is turning into the longest, weirdest political suicide the world has ever seen.

     

    From a Highland perspective, they've all bloody lost it. We had some twerp-like FibDem canvasser again today spouting such utter tosh my jaw nearly hit the cat-flap.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    This is actually pretty good from (Tory) Fraser Nelson in response to Nicola Sturgeon bumping into his SNP voting aunt while out campaigning. Then these two sending him a 'selfie' of that encounter.

     

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority/

     

    Five rules of politics that Nicola Sturgeon has broken
     
    ...Don’t try to recruit actual members. The age of mass membership of political parties is dead. If she were a proper politician, she’d content herself with plunging membership – knowing that this was a sign of modernity, rather than a party being hollowed out...

     

     
     
    I think it's parody anyway.
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Much better to have Mrs Sturgeon's finest Scottish caviar than sample the delights of Nigel Farage's all-English baloney?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Much better to have Mrs Sturgeon's finest Scottish caviar than sample the delights of Nigel Farage's all-English baloney?

     

    Apparently farage is the drool that gathers in the bottom of wheelie bins, so I reckon we win with caviar :D

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
     

    Exc: Times / YouGov / Scotland 16-20 April SNP 49 Lab 25 Con 17 LD 5 Other 4 Unchanged on April 8/9

     

     

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    This is actually pretty good from (Tory) Fraser Nelson in response to Nicola Sturgeon bumping into his SNP voting aunt while out campaigning. Then these two sending him a 'selfie' of that encounter.

    I think it's parody anyway.

    If that's really him that wrote it he's got a good sense of humour.

    As for the poll SS, steady as she goes, that'll do fine.

    Edited by Ravelin
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    As for the poll SS, steady as she goes, that'll do fine.

     

    Aye. Only change is well within MoE: Con - 1, Lib + 1

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Aye. Only change is well within MoE: Con - 1, Lib + 1

     

    I never thought I'd see the SNP polling more than LabConLibDem combined. That's insane when you think about it.

     

    I've been a fan of Frankie Boyle for years, not only is he one of the funniest people, he's also very sharp when it comes to commentary:

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/20/britain-criminally-stupid-race-immigration

     

    Edit:

     

    Here's Lord Forsyth spouting nonsense for the Tories in this article:

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/20/tories-playing-dangerous-game-scotland-lord-forsyth

     

    Claimed that the Conservative party is in part to blame for the rise of the SNP after it helped to prop up Alex Salmond’s minority government in the Scottish parliament between 2007 and 2011. He said: “The great irony of the SNP’s position now [is that] the Tories gave support to a nationalist minority government saying we could do business with them. The result was that in constituencies in the north-east of Scotland and so on, lots of Tories felt they had permission to vote SNP to keep Labour out. So you got tactical voting and that got the SNP into the Tory heartlands.â€

     

    He's spouting total and utter nonsense with this, there was no change to the Tories' position in the NE of Scotland between 2007 and 2011.

     

    In 2007 in the North-East of Scotland the Tories had two MSPs returned via the additional member system, none via constituencies. In 2011 the Tories had two MSPs returned via the additional member system, none via constituencies.

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Where's Salmond?  It's most unlike him to be quiet.  Has he been sat on by Nicola?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Southside 30m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Glasgow Southside 30m ASL.

    Still convinced that these polls are not taking account of the potential scale of unionist tactical voting. Absolutely certain Jim Murphy will be bailed out by Tories in East Renfrewshire. Labour and SNP very close in Edinburgh South, so I suspect Tory voters will switch to Labour there as well to see them through. 

     

    Glasgow North, Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Coatbridge, Kirkcaldy, maybe North Ayrshire and Arran, all of which I'm convinced will remain Labour seats.

     

    Reckon Jo Swinson will get bailed out by Labour & Tory voters in East Dunbartonshire (Yes, Labour supporters voting for one of the coalition parties...), and I reckon in the South of Scotland we might see a Tory returned with the help of some Labour supporters there too. We've already had Labour activists openly campaigning for a Tory candidate in Perth, trying to raise support in working class areas.

    Edited by Glaswegianblizzard
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    Still convinced that these polls are not taking account of the potential scale of unionist tactical voting. Absolutely certain Jim Murphy will be bailed out by Tories in East Renfrewshire. Labour and SNP very close in Edinburgh South, so I suspect Tory voters will switch to Labour there as well to see them through.

    Glasgow North, Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Coatbridge, Kirkcaldy, maybe North Ayrshire and Arran, all of which I'm convinced will remain Labour seats.

    Reckon Jo Swinson will get bailed out by Labour & Tory voters in East Dunbartonshire (Yes, Labour supporters voting for one of the coalition parties...), and I reckon in the South of Scotland we might see a Tory returned with the help of some Labour supporters there too. We've already had Labour activists openly campaigning for a Tory candidate in Perth, trying to raise support in working class areas.

    The difficulty with Tory voters voting tactically is that firstly their party isn't advocating it and that secondly, we don't know how enamoured with the idea they are, only that most would consider it. Further, a significant chunk would consider voting SNP as well as Labour. With this in mind, I can't see how Labour will pick up a huge chunk of Tory votes. Edited by NorthernRab
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    The difficulty with Tory voters voting tactically is that firstly their party isn't advocating it and that secondly, we don't know how enamoured with the idea they are, only that most would consider it. Further, a significant chunk would consider voting SNP as well as Labour. With this in mind, I can't see how Labour will pick up a huge chunk of Tory votes.

    Undoubtedly there'll be some, but I don't see why it wouldn't be factored into the Ashcroft polls already with the 'thinking about your constituency question'. Added to that 60+% of tories say they would never vote Labour, so even if all those that would consider it did so in East Ren Murphy would still lose. The tory and unionist LD vote have already been massively squeezed in Edinburgh South by Labour so I'm not sure how many more points they could take there, but I'll concede that if they are going to hang on in a seat it'll most likely be that one. I think we also have to acknowledge that, in a fairly large number of seats, the tactical case is unclear or at least unclear enough that the weaker unionist party could make a compelling case to its own supporters to stick with them on tactical grounds (in fact both the LDs and tories in this seat are convinced that they're picking up supporters of the other party on tactical grounds). Curtice suggested it might make a difference in maybe 4-5 seats, and that was before we extended the lead, so while I think it will happen it's not going to make much of an impact UNLESS there's a genuine swingback from us to Labour at the last minute.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    In past polls ahead of previous elections, 'tactical voting' was very obvious.

     

    Or at least Scottish standard tactical voting which was SNP supporters / leaners starting to say Labour or Lib in their efforts to stop the Tories.

     

    You saw this in e.g. the SNP Westminster vote falling from low 30's in 2009 (what they got in 2007 Holyrood) to May 2010, with an acceleration of this in the few months before the election.

     

    There is evidence for Tories trying to prop-up Labour already in some constituencies; Edinburgh south is an example. Also Con trying to prop up Lib, e.g. in Kennedy's seat.

     

    Seems already to be factored into the polls.

     

    The Scottish Tory vote is really down to core already. Getting core to vote for another party - especially their long term rival - is not easy.

     

    As I've noted, I'd be quite up for more con to Lab tactical. If the SNP fail to take a few 'bonus' seats as a result, I think that would be worth a fall in the Tory vote / a hat trick of falls for all 3 main UK parties + the potential bonus of all three getting their lowest shares of the vote ever (to all extents and purposes) in a UKGE in Scotland. The latter is certainly what will happen if Tories ignore Ruth / Dave and try to e.g. save Ian Murray's hide. They might even not succeed in that, causing them a double blow.

     

    Certainly, if we take polls at face value, the Tories look like the only party which might be able to come out of the election saying that their vote held up. Polls do suggest Con vote may fall again simply due to the passage of time, but if it only fell a point or two, that would be good going for them.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ancrum
  • Weather Preferences: HOT SUNSHINE!
  • Location: Ancrum

    I know this is by-the-by and irrelevant, but I will never understand why anybody in Scotland would ever vote tory. What have they ever done for us -  apart from impose the Poll Tax on us first as guinea pigs...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Another thing about tactical voting, in a contest that looks like being very tight UK wide, why would you want to give your main rival an extra seat? It could make all the difference in whether the Tories or Labour are the 'biggest party' (TM Scottish Labour) and 'get to form the government' (TM...).

    For E.Ren specifically, as a Tory voter would you rather Murphy won or would you rather see Labour embarrassed by seeing him lose his seat? The temptation to see the latter would be high i'd expect.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    The difficulty with Tory voters voting tactically is that firstly their party isn't advocating it and that secondly, we don't know how enamoured with the idea they are, only that most would consider it. Further, a significant chunk would consider voting SNP as well as Labour. With this in mind, I can't see how Labour will pick up a huge chunk of Tory votes.

     

    Tory candidates are asking for tactical votes though, so the party might not be advocating it but they certainly aren't stopping it:

     

    https://www.facebook.com/JohnLamontBorders?fref=ts

     

    10004069_900427736647092_305328209913945

     

    Pretty clear cut. I wonder how many other candidates are begging for votes?

     

    They are obsessed with the SNP, the Tory's website homepage is dominated by anti-SNP stuff, remember this is the main UK page!!! (if you click the link be prepared to skip past the part about signing up, or sign up if you like that sort of thing :) )

     

    https://www.conservatives.com/

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    I know this is by-the-by and irrelevant, but I will never understand why anybody in Scotland would ever vote tory. What have they ever done for us -  apart from impose the Poll Tax on us first as guinea pigs...

     

    I don't get it either mardatha, I know what the arguments are in favour of it, but I cannot see it.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    I know this is by-the-by and irrelevant, but I will never understand why anybody in Scotland would ever vote tory. What have they ever done for us -  apart from impose the Poll Tax on us first as guinea pigs...

     

    With apologies to SWS, but what have the tories ever done for anybody in the UK, apart from look after themselves? They don't suddenly become wonderfully caring south of Carlisle.

     

     

    Good to see the Scottish Greens are winning Lauren's exit poll by a healthy margin - 100%!   :whistling:

     

    Damn, instant karma - some fkr's gone and voted tory! (Must figure out how to hack this, can't be that difficult if that guy hacked the CPS and got Wandsworth to release him...)

    Edited by Hairy Celt
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    With apologies to SWS, but what have the tories ever done for anybody in the UK, apart from look after themselves? They don't suddenly become wonderfully caring south of Carlisle.

     

     

    Good to see the Scottish Greens are winning Lauren's exit poll by a healthy margin - 100%!   :whistling:

     

    Damn, instant karma - some fkr's gone and voted tory!

     

    So you're a Green at heart?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    So you're a Green at heart?

     

    Republican socialist green Europhile carnivore party.  Founding member.  Membership: 1.   Tactical voter extraordinaire.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    With apologies to SWS, but what have the tories ever done for anybody in the UK, apart from look after themselves? They don't suddenly become wonderfully caring south of Carlisle.

    Good to see the Scottish Greens are winning Lauren's exit poll by a healthy margin - 100%! :whistling

    Damn, instant karma - some fkr's gone and voted tory! (Must figure out how to hack this, can't be that difficult if that guy hacked the CPS and got Wandsworth to release him...)

    Well that's quite a broad topic...

    If we draw our attentions to the situation in the 1970s

    Ie vastly overpowered Tarde unions, 3 day weeks, nationalised companies haemorrhaging money

    Black outs, rampant unemployment, high taxes...

    The party fundamentally champion the belief that what you put in is what you get out.

    Now obviously, they accept that some are in a more difficult position than others hence concessions to a 'safety net', to free healthcare (not an insurances based policy), free education etc.

    They don't believe people have an inherent right to ther people's money. I believe if I fall ill I should get treated, free eduction so I can progress but after that (until I hit pension age) I must stand on my own two feet and push on.

    A regulated market helps keep prices lower and improves efficieny (within reason).

    I'm not particularly 'socially conservative' but I suppose Christian principles have their place. Although, I was in favour of gay marriage I do underarm as how to Christians this is problematic. Marriage is

    after all a Christian tradition, certainly in this country.

    Generally, the party give a sense of tradition and identity although here in Scotland so has the SNP.

    They also aim for the country to have significant wider influence. Achieved by a strong defence (although on this issue as long as the money was ploughed into improving conventional forces then trident could e scrapped) and a forceful and proactive approach to diplomacy.

    I could go on but I reckon the 'I don't understand how anyone could vote Tory' is really 'I don't agree with the views of the Tories' not the former. As Catch notes, therefore, I'm waisting my breath or rather my phone's battery

    Edited by SW Saltire
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Republican socialist green Europhile carnivore party.  Founding member.  Membership: 1.   Tactical voter extraordinaire.

     

    Can you send me an application form to join?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Going back to the Ashcroft polling, if any seat shows the calamity facing Labour, it is the North Edinburgh and Leith seat, I mean, look at this...

     

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/edinburgh-north-leith/

     

    A party which finished a distant fourth with only 10% of the vote look like winning it this time! Crazy stuff.

     

    Just over two weeks to go and I think I better order in the popcorn now. And a big bag at that.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...