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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Why can't they?

    Voting SNP doesn't equal a vote for independence....

     

    No, it doesn't equal a vote for independence, but it at least includes support for it.  I know a few tories around here (can't help it, I'm afraid) and they're some of the least likely pro-independence voters I know.  Nothing much has happened to make the tory party less attractive to them (they're still the party of the 'have lots and want more' brigade) so why are they switching? 

    It's ok folks.......Gordon Brown once more rides to the rescue!   We are saved!!!

     

     

    attachicon.gifbroonsurrection.jpg

     

    Says summat about that rag that the second most important item is 'prejudiced git isn't ill'...

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    No, it doesn't equal a vote for independence, but it at least includes support for it.  I know a few tories around here (can't help it, I'm afraid) and they're some of the least likely pro-independence voters I know.  Nothing much has happened to make the tory party less attractive to them (they're still the party of the 'have lots and want more' brigade) so why are they switching?

    Obviously as generalisation that's true.

    However, my stepdad will vote SNP up in Lanark and Hamilton East in order to get rid of Labour. He'd vote Tory down here and sees himself between the two. Voted No in the referendum.

    I'll vote Tory at this election. I voted YES. I'm certainly very pro FFA (always have been) if rather 50/50 on full independence.

    My mum is toying between SNP and Tory. Has always voted Tory at GEs.

    We certainly were not 'comfortable' for most of the last few decades... But there is no point debating this as our political differences will make the Grand Canyon look small.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ancrum
  • Weather Preferences: HOT SUNSHINE!
  • Location: Ancrum

    SW Saltire you're allowed to vote whatever you want, and I would be very disappointed if other posters got nasty about it. They do that in the UK forums but we in here don't.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    So.......Is it correct that there will be 800,000 postal voters in Scotland?   Why for heavens sake?   After the concern re the Referendum vote outcome, an investigation called for, which is still ongoing I believe, do 800,000 people (exceptions of course)  go and do exactly the same thing again?  Talk about using a stick to break your own back with!!

    In answer to your first question I have no idea as registration is still open for postal voting until Tuesday so I doubt if any official figures have been released. Some people like to vote by postal ballot, not so much out of convenience but knowing that they have "already acted". I know that sounds a bit silly as your vote doesn't count until the 7th of May. As long as postal voting is a proper official way to vote (according to the Electoral Commission I cannot see a problem with it). Surely you wouldn't propose scrapping it because of suspicion or as yet unproven allegations of irregularities?

    Personally I like to go and place my X in the box and would only vote by post if I was going t o be out of the country/away on Election Day but others should not be stopped from voting that way should they choose.

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Obviously as generalisation that's true.

    However, my stepdad will vote SNP up in Lanark and Hamilton East in order to get rid of Labour. He'd vote Tory down here and sees himself between the two. Voted No in the referendum.

    I'll vote Tory at this election. I voted YES. I'm certainly very pro FFA (always have been) if rather 50/50 on full independence.

    My mum is toying between SNP and Tory. Has always voted Tory at GEs.

    We certainly were not 'comfortable' for most of the last few decades... But there is no point debating this as our political differences will make the Grand Canyon look small.

     

     

    Fair enough. What Cameron has said this morning is pushing me harder towards voting SNP, but I don't suppose he gives a tuppeny [email protected]@k about random idiots like me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    SW Saltire you're allowed to vote whatever you want, and I would be very disappointed if other posters got nasty about it. They do that in the UK forums but we in here don't.

     

    Aye, I might not like SWS's political leanings but I'd still buy him a pint :D before lecturing him about how wrong he is :D :D

     

    Edit: Judging by Nicola Sturgeon's comments recently I'd say they will have a new independence referendum in the manifesto for 2016. If  the SNP win that election then we'd be looking at another referendum in 2019. Just my guess :)

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Nah, hang on... why are tory voters defecting to SNP?   :cc_confused:

     

    Defecting to Lib while further Lib defect to SNP; anyone still voting Lib in Scotland largely being a closet Tory.

     

    In the Ashcroft Kennedy poll, just 5% of Con 2010 are planning SNP this time. In contrast, 16% are planning Lib Dem. 4% skipping and 4% to Lab.

     

    In contrast, 41% of Lib dem 2010 are planning SNP and 46% of Lab 2010 going for the same.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    SW Saltire you're allowed to vote whatever you want, and I would be very disappointed if other posters got nasty about it. They do that in the UK forums but we in here don't.

     

    Somebody's got to give a bit of a sympathy vote to the Tories.

    Fair enough. What Cameron has said this morning is pushing me harder towards voting SNP, but I don't suppose he gives a tuppeny [email protected]@k about random idiots like me.

     

    Cameron really, really want's you to vote Labour.

     

    You only need to have a look at the Telegraph, Mail, Express etc to see that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Almost 1 in 5 in some of the recent polls. That is a lot of "sympathy"

     

    We may have to give SS some sympathy for his cheek being sore from his tongue being wedged in it :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Almost 1 in 5 in some of the recent polls. That is a lot of "sympathy"

     

    Polls tend to overestimate the Tory vote in Scotland.

     

    Last GE in Scotland was 13% (Holyrood) average. Down on 2010's 17%.

     

    Polling at the moment is about 15%.

     

    If the long term pattern for UKGE's continues, that 15% looks about right. If there's tactical to Lab + Lib, could fall below 10% as we discussed before, which would be pretty disastrous for them.

     

    Scotland's right now is more reflected in Lib + Con + a section of Lab rather than a single party.

     

    Don't get me wrong - it is good to have right to balance left. I think having SW on one hand and HC on the other is a good thing.

     

    I do find irony in the Tory support for an electoral system that destroys them in these parts though.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    Polls tend to overestimate the Tory vote in Scotland.

    Last GE in Scotland was 13% (Holyrood) average. Down on 2010's 17%.

    Polling at the moment is about 15%.

    If the long term pattern for UKGE's continues, that 15% looks about right. If there's tactical to Lab + Lib, could fall below 10% as we discussed before, which would be pretty disastrous for them.

    Scotland's right now is more reflected in Lib + Con + a section of Lab rather than a single party.

    Don't get me wrong - it is good to have right to balance left. I think having SW on one hand and HC on the other is a good thing.

    I do find irony in the Tory support for an electoral system that destroys them in these parts though.

    From what I have seen and looking at the 2011 election as you mentioned it specifically, the polls in the weeks before the election got the Tory vote pretty spot on so I'm not sure you're overestimating cal is a valid one?

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011

    If anything, in this example at least the polls on average underestimated the Tory vote? Edit, further research suggests that the previous Holyrood election polls in the run-up to the 2007 vote also underestimated the Tory vote.

    Edited by doctormog
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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    I cannot see a problem with it). Surely you wouldn't propose scrapping it because of suspicion or as yet unproven allegations of irregularities?

     

    I fail to see how you can't have a problem with it?   The  fact that suspicion and allegations of irregularities appear to exist in this postal voting scenario and a renowned Judge himself admitting that in one case last year he came across14 different ways that ballot papers could be manipulated, to me speaks volumes?

    I will continue to err on the side of caution I'm afraid.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26520836

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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    SW Saltire you're allowed to vote whatever you want, and I would be very disappointed if other posters got nasty about it. They do that in the UK forums but we in here don't.

    I appreciate the sentiments behind your post. Don't worry i won't let anonymous people online change my voting preference (through insults/stigma, through constructive debate is different). Also i'm not saying the aforementioned post crossed a line, there was nothing wrong with what he said (Apart from a couple digs), i ain't some wishy washy liberal, i can take it! :rofl:  (The irony is i am pretty liberal haha) 

     

    Fair enough. What Cameron has said this morning is pushing me harder towards voting SNP, but I don't suppose he gives a tuppeny [email protected]@k about random idiots like me.

    I typed a huge post out to you on my phone but that seems to not want to post. Can barely remember what i put tbh. You're more than entitled to your opinion...

     

    Aye, I might not like SWS's political leanings but I'd still buy him a pint :D before lecturing him about how wrong he is :D :D

     

    Edit: Judging by Nicola Sturgeon's comments recently I'd say they will have a new independence referendum in the manifesto for 2016. If  the SNP win that election then we'd be looking at another referendum in 2019. Just my guess :)

    I look forward to it  :yahoo:  I wonder if people on here will ever meet... Does anyone on here know each other in RL? I vaguely know what SS lokks like since he put a photo in the 'show yourself' thread but even if i was in the borders (or over the east side of Scotland in general) and thought i recognised him, had a wife (who  perhaps had a french accent), had a young child - i'd be more likely to say something if wife and kid wasn't there - etc etc... which is already a very long shot. I'm not sure i'd have the balls to say something, ity would have to be witty/funny if i did. 

     

    Wish somebody would buy me a bloody pint, I forgot what a pub looks like!

    Don't. I'm sooooo hungover right now. T'was a rather big night last night, i'd almost go as far to describe it as an 'alcoholicaust'.

     

    Incidentally, my old Modern studies teacher (i've mentioned him before as he's a YES man, very pro SNP, former member of CND etc) always said to buy him a pint if i ever did in a pub. So i must remember to do that.... although he did lose his job as Head of a secondary school for snorting cocaine with my higher history teacher who had been promoted to a department head in my old school... that may make it a little awkward, the elephant in the room haha. Ladsladslads  :hi:

     

    Somebody's got to give a bit of a sympathy vote to the Tories.

     

    Cameron really, really want's you to vote Labour.

     

    You only need to have a look at the Telegraph, Mail, Express etc to see that.

    I don't need sympathy SS, i don't look (demand/expect) to other people to help me SS... i thought you knew this. That's what Labour voters expect  :rofl:

     

    Polls tend to overestimate the Tory vote in Scotland.

     

    Last GE in Scotland was 13% (Holyrood) average. Down on 2010's 17%.

     

    Polling at the moment is about 15%.

     

    If the long term pattern for UKGE's continues, that 15% looks about right. If there's tactical to Lab + Lib, could fall below 10% as we discussed before, which would be pretty disastrous for them.

     

    Scotland's right now is more reflected in Lib + Con + a section of Lab rather than a single party.

     

    Don't get me wrong - it is good to have right to balance left. I think having SW on one hand and HC on the other is a good thing.

     

    I do find irony in the Tory support for an electoral system that destroys them in these parts though.

    Admittedly, PR would make the parliament look very balanced, quite 'socially democratic' don't you think? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    From what I have seen and looking at the 2011 election as you mentioned it specifically, the polls in the weeks before the election got the Tory vote pretty spot on so I'm not sure you're overestimating cal is a valid one?

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011

    If anything, in this example at least the polls on average underestimated the Tory vote? Edit, further research suggests that the previous Holyrood election polls in the run-up to the 2007 vote also underestimated the Tory vote.

     

    Sorry, I meant for UKGEs (as that's what we are heading for)*. 2010 they were getting around 18%, with some polls showing 21% (like you mention, i.e. 1 in 5), but got they 16.7%. Only final polls in the week or so before came closer.

     

    ---

     

    *I assumed this too because Polls for the (proportionally representative where people can generally vote freely for the party they really support) Holyrood pretty much never show Tories on 20%.

     

    EDIT

     

    I should add that you are correct for Holyrood.

     

    What's interesting is that there isn't any 'shy Tory' factor in Scotland. Polls are either suggesting a point or two higher than they get (which can happen with UKGE's), or largely bang on as per Holyrood.

     

    My guess is that's because the Tory vote in Scotland is largely 'core', i.e. you don't have floating 'tempted by Tory' voters who might be more shy.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    Sorry, I meant for UKGEs (as that's what we are heading for)*. 2010 they were getting around 18%, with some polls showing 21% (like you mention, i.e. 1 in 5), but got they 16.7%. Only final polls in the week or so before came closer.

     

    ---

     

    *I assumed this too because Polls for the (proportionally representative where people can generally vote freely for the party they really support) Holyrood pretty much never show Tories on 20%.

     

    EDIT

     

    I should add that you are correct for Holyrood.

     

    What's interesting is that there isn't any 'shy Tory' factor in Scotland. Polls are either suggesting a point or two higher than they get (which can happen with UKGE's), or largely bang on as per Holyrood.

    Actually the polls on the weeks running up to the last GE election were not far off the mark. There were a few anomalously low and a few anomalously high but most were in the 15 to 18 bracket. Certainly with 3 weeks or so to go none of them really overestimated the Tory vote?

    http://www.scotlandvotes.com/westminster/opinion-polls

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Admittedly, PR would make the parliament look very balanced, quite 'socially democratic' don't you think? 

     

    You know I'm a PR fan.

     

    For example, I think if the union is to remain, we should have PR parliaments for each nation and an upper PR '1 nation one vote' type senate as they have in federal systems. This means the bigger 'states' can't outvote the smaller.

    Actually the polls on the weeks running up to the last GE election were not far off the mark. There were a few anomalously low and a few anomalously high but most were in the 15 to 18 bracket. Certainly with 3 weeks or so to go none of them really overestimated the Tory vote?

    http://www.scotlandvotes.com/westminster/opinion-polls

     

    Please read my posts. I said the final ones were closer.

     

    Ipsos MORI 2010.15 17%

    TNS BMRB/Herald 2010.10 18%

    TNS-BMRB/Herald 2009.84 18%      

     

    Average of Yougov Jan-April was 18% Con.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    You know I'm a PR fan.

     

    For example, I think if the union is to remain, we should have PR parliaments for each nation and an upper PR '1 nation one vote' type senate as they have in federal systems. This means the bigger 'states' can't outvote the smaller.

     

    Please read my posts.

    Yes, my comment was made in jest.

    I'm not sure it'll ever happen...

    Someone (a group from different parties of whatever) need to get together and thrash out the most workable solution and it implemented in a few years to make sure it runs smoothly

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    You know I'm a PR fan.

     

    For example, I think if the union is to remain, we should have PR parliaments for each nation and an upper PR '1 nation one vote' type senate as they have in federal systems. This means the bigger 'states' can't outvote the smaller.

     

    Please read my posts.

     

    Ipsos MORI

    2010.15

    17

    TNS BMRB/Herald

    2010.10

    18

    TNS-BMRB/Herald

    2009.84

    18

     

     

     

     

    Average of Yougov Jan-April was 18% Con.

    I just posted you the link. I am referring to this time period "a few weeks" not months i.e. The equivalent period to now. In the run up to the last GE the 10 polls in the 2-3 weeks before the GE had the Tory vote at an average of 15.4, a slight underestimate.

    Not only did I read your post I responded to it with a link showing lol the opinion poll data! I suggest you read mine properly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I just posted you the link. I am referring to this time period "a few weeks" not months i.e. The equivalent period to now. In the run up to the last GE the 10 polls in the 2-3 weeks before the GE had the Tory vote at an average of 15.4, a slight underestimate.

    Not only did I read your post I responded to it with a link showing lol the opinion poll data! I suggest you read mine properly.

     

    The polls I posted are what we would have up until now, i.e. what we'd be looking at today in 2010. I even gave dates.

     

    The next MORI and TNS would come at the end of April (27th I have). These would show lower Con values.

     

    Here is what I said:

     

    Only final polls in the week or so before came closer.

     

    Are you disputing that polls didn't modestly overestimate the Tory vote up until this point? 18,18, 17... 18 average from yougov all polls... Result 16.7%.

     

    If so, you are looking at other polls I've never seen published.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    None of that negates a single point I have made nor validates your argument that the polls always overestimate the Tory vote. I have now shown several times in the weeks immediately prior to an election (which is what ALL my comments have referred to) the polls do not overestimate the Tory vote.

    I'm sorry but I do not believe I can make that point any more clearly. However just to highlight again I am referring to the period in the weeks not the months before the election where the polls tend to get it pretty spot on. To me that suggests based in past evidence that the Tory vote will be somewhere between 15 and 17% once more in the forthcoming election (barring unforeseen political changes in the next 3 weeks!)

    Edit: I am referring to ALL the polling data I have come across, as summarised in my previous link here http://www.scotlandvotes.com/westminster/opinion-polls

    Edited by doctormog
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    This is what I said occurs for UKGE's.

     

    Right now, we'd have had just two out of what 15 polls since Christmas which didn't overestimate the Tory vote.

     

    4 would have given 17% correctly. The remainder varyingly to high. Some over '1 in 5' which was what started this.

     

    You can see they get it right on average after now (election was 2010.34).

     

    I'm going to leave it at that.

    post-9421-0-39190100-1429451238_thumb.pn

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Anyway, moving on:

     

    Yougov for the Sunday Times

     

    Which leader do you think came across best in the debate?  (Respondents across Britain) :
     
    Nicola Sturgeon 30%
    Ed Miliband 27%
    Nigel Farage 17%
    Leanne Wood 3%
    Natalie Bennett 3%
     
    Which leader do you think came across best in the debate?  (Respondents in Scotland only) :
     
    Nicola Sturgeon 63%
    Ed Miliband 22%
    Nigel Farage 8%
    Natalie Bennett 1%
    Leanne Wood 0%
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Crikey, I go outside to do the garden and find you lot have been hammering at your keyboards like demons in the meantime. I just can't keep up.

     

    Just one thing stands out from SS: you wrote that Cameron wants us to vote Labour, well yes, I guess, but he's not exactly doing a good job is he? In fact, I'd say his comments this morning were verging on suicidal.

     

    And just to add to others' comments... even if I write things a bit squint and undiplomatically at times, freedom of expression is sacred.

     

    Anyway, back to the digging...


     

    Anyway, moving on:

     

    Yougov for the Sunday Times

     

    Which leader do you think came across best in the debate?  (Respondents across Britain) :
     
    Nicola Sturgeon 30%
    Ed Miliband 27%
    Nigel Farage 17%
    Leanne Wood 3%
    Natalie Bennett 3%
     
    Which leader do you think came across best in the debate?  (Respondents in Scotland only) :
     
    Nicola Sturgeon 63%
    Ed Miliband 22%
    Nigel Farage 8%
    Natalie Bennett 1%
    Leanne Wood 0%

     

     

    There's an elephant in the room, unfortunately.

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