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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    "Praise the Lord and Pass the ammunition" :D  Just need to watch those postal votes now!

     

    If you hear a lot of paper shuffling and licking going on, you'll know what's happened. EastRen for a record number of postal votes? :D

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    He'll need to hope that Jesus is a Tory cos he's needing a miracle of biblical proportions judging by that poll.

     

    Only my constituency looking tight on that list, and even that's winnable for the SNP. It would only take a 1% swing to the SNP, well within MOE and very possible.

    Yep, every seat is winnable for the SNP. I do think your seat, my seat and the only Tory seat will be very very close. Since these seats are basically IMBY I'll be very interested to see how they fall... All three could be Tory, 1 Lab and all three could be SNP. Probably somewhere in the middle.

    I genuinely think Labour may have < 5 seats come the end of this. Tories 1-3, Lib <4...

    Therefore giving the SNP over 50 seats...

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Mind these polls are 2010 weighted so hurt the SNP.

     

    Massive down-weight of SNP 2010 in my constituency; typical of discredited 2010 weighting.

     

    Going to do the math to try and correct, but poll may well show Kerr taking the seat.

     

    Moore's screwed anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    For HC it has to be the Popular People's Republican Socialist Front of the Black Isle. 

     

    ---

     

    I recall the first time I had to actually make a choice was in 1997 for my first vote.

     

    I did consider Labour and Lib. However, I was suspicious of Blair (not being left wing) even though Labour were offering a Scottish Parliament.

     

    So, this left me the Libs and SNP. Given both were not that far apart, SNP just left and Libs just right but both yellow flag liberals, I opted for SNP. As I've said before, I wasn't desperate for indy at that time - devo looked a good start. However, the Libs refusal to support indy as an option in the constitutional convention had me wondering about whether they really were liberal democrats.

     

    SNP I could be sure would work in the interests of Scotland and were very clear what they stood for. So, that's what it was.

     

    Tony confirmed my suspicions very quickly. I lost any trace of faith in the Libs in 2007 when they refused a referendum on devo max / federalism. Nope, not liberal democrats, but conservative (not wanting radical change) and unionist. That's when I largely gave up on the idea that the union could modernise to some sort of new, federal / confederal relationship and decided indy was definitely the only option short of something drastic changing.

     

    I'm glad I never voted for New Labour or Lib. I'd have regretted it.

     

    I voted Labour at every election up to and including 1992. Then switched to Green which was then pretty unusual I think. However I have to say I cheered mightily when the tories got the boot in 1997 - even went as far as rummaging through old boxes to find an aged piece of something nice to put i my pipe. I'd spent near my entire adult life under the laminate floors, a good chunk of it being hounded by the witch in one way or another.  Then to find noolabor lead by a warmonger millionaire...

     

    (note that I haven't denied your first sentence :D - If only it were possible!)

    Edited by Hairy Celt
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    My seat with 2010 weighting removed:

     

    36% SNP
    32% Con
    20% Lib
    8% Lab
    3% UKIP
    1% Green
     
    That looks more like the 2011 result for the two Holyrood constituencies covered combined.
     
    Also, SNP got 41% on the regional list for South Scotland in 2011. Yes vote was around 36% locally.
     
    EDIT
     
    Sorry, totally messed up a formula.
     
    Corrected!
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

     

    My seat with 2010 weighting removed:

     

    36% SNP
    32% Con
    20% Lib
    8% Lab
    3% UKIP
    1% Green
     
    That looks more like the 2011 result for the two Holyrood constituencies covered combined.
     
    Also, SNP got 41% on the regional list for South Scotland in 2011. Yes vote was around 36% locally.
     
    EDIT
     
    Sorry, totally messed up a formula.
     
    Corrected!

     

    It really does. An amazing amount of split-ticket voting went on in the southern border seat in 2011 too - John Lamont won fairly comfortably 42% to 26% over the SNP but the SNP won the list vote 35% to 31.5%:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ettrick,_Roxburgh_and_Berwickshire_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I wonder how much the Nicola Sturgeon factor is effecting the polling. It seems hard to believe that Alex Salmond would have been able to garner so much positivity.

     

    You can clearly see the differences in both her tone towards the rest of the UK and in the crowds that turn up to see her in Scotland which seem more carnival in atmosphere with a real sense of joy. 

     

    You can of course never quantify her effect on the SNP but its hard to think of any other Leader being so popular.

     

    IMO if the SNP do as well as expected its much in part to her.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    I wonder how much the Nicola Sturgeon factor is effecting the polling. It seems hard to believe that Alex Salmond would have been able to garner so much positivity.

     

    You can clearly see the differences in both her tone towards the rest of the UK and in the crowds that turn up to see her in Scotland which seem more carnival in atmosphere with a real sense of joy. 

     

    You can of course never quantify her effect on the SNP but its hard to think of any other Leader being so popular.

     

    IMO if the SNP do as well as expected its much in part to her.

     

    I agree with this. I think she has had a good positive effect but she's been near the top for a while now. I'd go as far as to say it's the lack of Salmond which is making the difference, he was a far more divisive character than Sturgeon has proved to be. Being female has helped her, I don't care what people say...it has definitely helped her.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl

    Yeah, true. Isn't that ok though? I mean if it stops people doing illegal activity. I don't want every text analysed, CCTV everywhere etc etc but some level of policing on the web is necessary IMO. Probably excessive currently though.

    If you're stupid enough to conduct a drug deal over the web or where a murder has occurred or plans for explosives etc without even code words then you deserve to get caught.

    Haha - love it! or even with code words...?

     

    Didn't get to watch last night's debate live but caught up with it later and really enjoyed it. I've got to agree with Nigel on the audience, not fair for the BBC to pack it out with nationalists who clapped and cheered every time Nicola spoke. :rofl:

     

    Seriously, I though Sturgeon did very well and speared Milliband at the end. Milliband overall did reasonably well, except for at the end. Bennett and Woods got a few good points across but struggled in places. Farage, was Farage. Everything was down to EU & immigration and insulting the audience wasn't exactly a master stroke.

     

    I was again impressed; unlike Mr Millipede who was clearly coached to only talk direct to camera, Nicola had a great way of engaging with the audience and talking normally to them, rather than the rehearsed sound bites and 'on-message' Labour election phrases churned out (which I thought looked and sounded patronising).  I got the impression a very significant part of the audience genuinely appreciated her straight talking no nonsense approach, regardless of their political affiliations.  Rather like the audience I got caught up in the buzz she created and texted my significant others with "haha, the wee Scottish dynamo is getting the biggest applause and the wiggly worm goes right up into high positive when she's on one."

     

    Of course Mr Farage could have been right and the 'remarkable audience' was some of the kilty thread bussed down and on a win a holiday for the loudest Nicola cheer competition :clapping:  but I was spontaneously bouncing away happily, clapping like mad and no left wing news organisation approached me to offend the man on the right of my screen.....

     

    You can clearly see the differences in both her tone towards the rest of the UK and in the crowds that turn up to see her in Scotland which seem more carnival in atmosphere with a real sense of joy. 

     

    You can of course never quantify her effect on the SNP but its hard to think of any other Leader being so popular.

     

    IMO if the SNP do as well as expected its much in part to her.

     

    Absolutely agree.  Alex Salmond is viewed more as a bogey man down here, which Cons/Labour/LibDem leaders play to and promote, and my sense is that a lot of people are quite scared of him and what political carnage he might unleash.  It is in their interests to imply he's still the leader of the SNP as evidenced in the dirty poster campaigns and a slip of the tongue from Mr M last night as it got heated at the end of the debate.  On the other hand most of the English political editors talk about Nicola Sturgeon with respect and an increasing admiration.  The general media down here (TV, radio and a lot of the papers) have been more respectful, complimentary and constructive about her than any of the other party leaders.  As well there have been increasing comments in the media about people in England wishing they could vote for the SNP under her leadership.   I agree its difficult to quantify how many people in Scotland will vote SNP purely because her although I suspect she appeals to far more of the electorate than her predecessor.

     

    In my opinion she's done Scotland proud.  

    Edit:  Excuse the mess of multi quotes with nothing in them - obviously over tired with all this election excitement. 

    Edited by Soaring Hawk
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Quite a good sum-up from an academic perspective on what things seem to be heading towards, outlining the various possible permutations.

     

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-snps-exponential-rise-is-throwing-the-british-system-of-government-into-turmoil/

     

    The SNP’s exponential rise is throwing the British system of government into turmoil
     
    The 2015 general election looks set to be an exceptionally good one for the SNP, who look set to not only supplant Labour as the largest party north of the border, but to rout it. Sean Swan argues that this could see considerable change in the way British politics is conducted in future, particularly given their possible involvement in any minority or coalition government emerging from the election...
     
    ...The Yes side’s response to defeat was political mobilisation via the SNP, aiming to hold the balance of power following the May general election. By 22 September SNP membership had jumped 70 per cent. Over 18,000 people had joined since the referendum, bringing membership to a record 43,644. By March, membership had reached 100,000, making the SNP the third largest UK party by membership. The SNP today is what Labour once was – a movement...
     
    ...The Systemic crisis
     
    The fundamental question is whether a ‘British’ nation still exists. 62.4 per cent of Scots reject a British national identity, identifying as ‘Scottish only’. A shared party system is central to ‘British’ politics, and if the SNP supplant Labour in Scotland, it will be “harder than ever to talk about ‘British politics’â€...
     
    I note the author understands that the SNP are not a party, but a movement. Has a good grasp of things.
     
    I pick out the last bit as it is particularly important, although the author hasn't quite picked up on the full implications.
     
    People go on and on about how the media is biased against the SNP.
     
    Yes, it is. Of course it is. However, why this is the case needs to be understood a bit better.
     
    The media have a tendency to reflect the establishment. Journalists who get themselves 'in' with dominant political parties get advantages, from insider tips, to getting invited to the right functions etc. It helps careers etc.
     
    So, as long as Lab + Con + Lib are the powers that be in Scotland, so the media will tend to be aligned to them.
     
    The media is most aligned to Labour of course as it has been so dominant in Scottish politics for so long.
     
    However, if the SNP become the dominant force, that will not last.
     
    It's not that suddenly all the papers will back the SNP...that the BBC will become pro-indy. It's that being good pals with Jim Murphy won't matter a jot if he's lost his seat and resigned as a result. That or the leader of a minor Holyrood party.
     
    Nope, instead better to try and establish a more cordial relationship with politicians of importance. You know, like Nicola Sturgeon...
     
    And so Scotland's media will start to change to better reflect the views of the electorate as expressed in their voting behaviour.
     
    It has already begun. First online with the rise of the new iScot media, then in traditional print with the Sunday Herald backing yes and the new National forming a common sight on news stands.
     
    Scotland is changing and the media will catch up. An SNP landslide in may will make a big difference here, much more so than 2011.
     
    As Scotland disengages from British politics, i.e. by increasingly not voting for British parties, so its media will, in time follow.
     
    And when Scotland's media starts to reflect Scotland better in terms of indy + devo max support, holding back movements for the latter will become increasingly impossible.
     
    ---
     
    Just to add to this....
     
    End of a political dynasty.
     
    Darling gone
    Brown gone
     
    Could go:
    Jim Murphy
    Margaret Curran
    Ian Davidson
    Douglas Alexander
    Charles Kennedy
    Menzies Campbell
    Michael Moore
     
    I'm picking out these as they are familiar faces on the TV, for comment in the papers etc.
     
    All could vanish from Scottish political life. No more friendly chats on the couch before the BBC cameras... a bit of joshing and free reign to SNP bash...
     
    Truly would be the end of an era and the beginning of a new.
     
    ---
     
    Here's another example of this already happening.
     
    The Scottish media is slowly becoming less British and more Scottish.
     
    Increasingly we have the same 'sister' papers north and south of the border completely at odds with each other. Like, well, they were being printed for two different countries.
     
    sunssay.jpg
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    So what are we thinking for the SNP manifesto on Monday, big case for FFA on the way potentially?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The generation gap is growing incredibly.

     

    From the TNS poll.

     

    VI splits at a single point on the age demographic:

     

    18-64 years

    59% SNP

    6% Green

    =65% Combined for pro indy parties

     

    Only one group is out of step..

    65+

    30% SNP + Green

     

    Still attached a Britishness Scotland once felt.

     

    Time is not on the union's side.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    The generation gap is growing incredibly.

     

    From the TNS poll.

     

    VI splits at a single point on the age demographic:

     

    18-64 years

    59% SNP

    6% Green

    =65% Combined for pro indy parties

     

    Only one group is out of step..

    65+

    30% SNP + Green

     

    Still attached a Britishness Scotland once felt.

     

    Time is not on the union's side.

     

    I wonder how much of the 65+ age group's Britishness comes from the after effects of WWII? My parents were born towards the end of the war so didn't experience the really bad bits, but they both very strongly remember rationing. Any thoughts? :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I wonder how much of the 65+ age group's Britishness comes from the after effects of WWII? My parents were born towards the end of the war so didn't experience the really bad bits, but they both very strongly remember rationing. Any thoughts? :)

     

    As I've talked about before, it was that and the post-war consensus (welfare state + nationalised British industries) that created British solidarity and with that a shared identity.

     

    Britishness was born in Scotland at that time. Before that it wasn't really an identity in Scotland. Scotland was Scottish; just part of the British Empire.

     

    The old Scottish unionists (what used to be Scotland's Tories) were very nationalistic. 'A strong Scotland in the empire!'. They wouldn't have countenanced the idea that Scotland was just a region of a greater Britain / England. They were also fairly pro-home rule. As, incidentally, was Keir Hardie; founder of the Scottish Labour party.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Ancrum
  • Weather Preferences: HOT SUNSHINE!
  • Location: Ancrum

    My dad was RAF, he had no time for Westminster whoever was in power. He had no time for Churchill even during the war he said, as the man was a Tory and had turned the troops against the miners. I think there must be other people my age who are not for the union - maybe the people doing the polls are in the wrong places!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    My dad was RAF, he had no time for Westminster whoever was in power. He had no time for Churchill even during the war he said, as the man was a Tory and had turned the troops against the miners. I think there must be other people my age who are not for the union - maybe the people doing the polls are in the wrong places!

     

    No, of course there are.

     

    There are young people for the union, just as their are older people that have been pro-indy all their lives. I am of course speaking generally.

     

    In the over 65's, Yes is ~40%. That compares to over 60% in younger age groups.

     

    It's not a smooth transition; there is a distinct jump when you go into the post-war baby boomer generation in terms of support for the union. People born in 1944 are the most British in identity. Those born before and after this increasingly less so (2011 census). The most British people in Scotland are 71 years old.

     

    There is also another factor; the over 65's tend to rely on the traditional print media, BBC etc for information too. As we all know, this has never been known for its avid support of the SNP / Scottish independence.

     

    ----

     

    EDIT

     

    IMO, the referendum came too early. If the SNP had got their first majority in 2016, then it would have very likely been a yes, if simply due to demographic changes with time continuing.

     

    Of course that's still possible. May 16 is just a year away.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Even the Tory candidate in my constituency is admitting the SNP are ahead, this from John Lamont's Facebook page (it comes up as a sponsored link on my Facebook, I didn't go trawling :) )

     

    11143559_899409333415599_268165554138388

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    This wouldn't surprise me.

     

    Would be fairly standard British establishment 'reward for failure' stuff.

     

    Danny's constituents chuck him out for failing them, Danny gets elevated to the aristocracy.

     

    Would join the likes of Annabel Goldie who led the Scottish Tories to their worse electoral defeat ever and Jack McConnell who lead labour to defeat in Scotland for the first time in decades.

     

    https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/lib-dem-plan-keep-danny-alexander-government-after-election

     

    Lib Dem plan to keep Danny Alexander in government after election
     
    Liberal Democrat aides are reportedly planning to keep Danny Alexander in government after the election by offering him a peerage if he loses his Highlands seat.

     

     
     
    Here was me thinking the Liberal Democrats didn't like the HoL as it wasn't democratic.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    So.......Is it correct that there will be 800,000 postal voters in Scotland?   Why for heavens sake?   After the concern re the Referendum vote outcome, an investigation called for, which is still ongoing I believe, do 800,000 people (exceptions of course)  go and do exactly the same thing again?  Talk about using a stick to break your own back with!!

    Edited by Blitzen
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  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    So.......Is it correct that there are 800,000 postal voters in Scotland?    Here we go again!!!

     

    And 240,000 of them live in EastRen?

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    So.......Is it correct that there are 800,000 postal voters in Scotland?    Here we go again!!!

     

    That was me, I registered multiply... All votes to be marked 'none of the above'...

     

    We had a very young Libdem canvasser here yesterday. He looked so unhappy I didn't give him too hard a time.  Lots of Kenndy lamp-posts round here, mostly erected a bit squint.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    That was me, I registered multiply... All votes to be marked 'none of the above'...

     

    We had a very young Libdem canvasser here yesterday. He looked so unhappy I didn't give him too hard a time.  Lots of Kenndy lamp-posts round here, mostly erected a bit squint.

     

    Ashcroft's polling didn't look good for Kennedy.

     

    With 2010 weighting removed, looks like this:
     
    53% SNP
    31% Lib
    7% Con
    6% Lab
    2% Green 
    1% UKIP
     
    So could be worse for charles than projected.

    post-9421-0-90754100-1429436804_thumb.jp

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

     

    Ashcroft's polling didn't look good for Kennedy.

     

    With 2010 weighting removed, looks like this:
     
    53% SNP
    31% Lib
    7% Con
    6% Lab
    2% Green 
    1% UKIP
     
    So could be worse for charles than projected.

     

     

    Interesting (in a small way) to see there that SNP appear to have gained roughly equally from all other parties except 'other' which must be mainly Green.  Which suggests (even confirms) that in this constituency at least, their appeal is mainly to do with the post-referendum fall-out.  And that could be a bit of a headache for the next cohort of elected SNP MPs, as they'll have to try to represent all their electors, and that doesn't quite tie in with their outspoken views on how they'll support a Labour gov't.

     

    <tries to think a bit more...>

     

    Nah, hang on... why are tory voters defecting to SNP?   :cc_confused:

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  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    It's ok folks.......Gordon Brown once more rides to the rescue!   We are saved!!!

     

     

    post-1989-0-61233200-1429441503_thumb.jp

    Edited by Blitzen
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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    Interesting (in a small way) to see there that SNP appear to have gained roughly equally from all other parties except 'other' which must be mainly Green.  Which suggests (even confirms) that in this constituency at least, their appeal is mainly to do with the post-referendum fall-out.  And that could be a bit of a headache for the next cohort of elected SNP MPs, as they'll have to try to represent all their electors, and that doesn't quite tie in with their outspoken views on how they'll support a Labour gov't.

     

    <tries to think a bit more...>

     

    Nah, hang on... why are tory voters defecting to SNP?   :cc_confused:

    Why can't they?

    Voting SNP doesn't equal a vote for independence....

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