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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I'm hearing David Mundel, our only Tory, is doing a Jim Murphy / Danny Alexander and sending out leaflets without any mention of the Conservative Party on them.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    I'm hearing David Mundel, our only Tory, is doing a Jim Murphy / Danny Alexander and sending out leaflets without any mention of the Conservative Party on them.

     

    That seems to be the thing to do if you are a modern, 'appening politician....or maybe not.

     

    I've always thought we should vote more for the person and the policies rather than blindly for a party, but even I think this is taking it a little too far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    That seems to be the thing to do if you are a modern, 'appening politician....or maybe not.

     

    I've always thought we should vote more for the person and the policies rather than blindly for a party, but even I think this is taking it a little too far.

     

    John Lamont (standing in my constituency) is apparently doing the same.

     

    I didn't look at the bumph I got from him myself by mail - used it to light the fire - but being reported.

     

    Seems being even a Borders Tory is a no-no at the moment!

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

    I make a point of reading all the campaign leaflets I get. The latest one seems to be all about Scotland and nothing about our local constituency and has made its way to the recycling as I don't need it to light my gas fire.

    Interestingly the Labout one was more focussed on constituency issues rather than just Scotland-wide ones

    .

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    They seem to be saying, My party may be toxic but I'm a good bloke, honest, really really I'm a good bloke . . . honest

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    So far, both the one I had from the Tories and Libs focussed on the SNP rather than constituency or national matters.

     

    'Only we can stop the SNP' was prominent on both.

     

    Hence both binned. I want to know what you are going to do, not just 'vote for me to stop them!'.

     

    The Lamont one was in Tory blue and red; I just hadn't read past SNP = Bad to notice that it didn't actually say Conservatives on it.

     

    Same for Moore's one - touched with Liberal yellow but again all about beating the SNP. Not sure if it said lib dems on it.

     

    I rank constituency matters lower overall due to devolution. No point moaning about potholes or the local GP services to your MP! It's not them in control. My MSP is excellent for this and the potholes are no more since the SNP ousted the Tories on the local council.

     

    So, for me the party that focuses on reserved to Westminster matters is most important in the UKGE.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Aviemore has been submerged in a sea of Lib Dem yellow diamonds, except there didn't seem to be much mention of the Lib Dems on them 'DANNY ALEXANDER wining here' - well we will see about that!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Aviemore has been submerged in a sea of Lib Dem yellow diamonds, except there didn't seem to be much mention of the Lib Dems on them 'DANNY ALEXANDER wining here' - well we will see about that!

     

    Well, word is that Carrbridge (my home villiage) won't be voting for Danny again.

     

    They had a wee 'raising of the standard' (saltire) ahead of the referendum.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Anyway, Scotland officially now has no Westminster MPs at all*.

     

    We're free of the feeble 53.

     

    Nice.

     

    (*Parliament has been dissolved and MPs are no longer allowed to use that prefix as they are out of a job from now).

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    So long Broon...

     

    Au revoir Darling...

     

    Certainly end of an era on the first.

     

    ----

     

    Jim - you are no longer an MP!

     

    http://www.jimmurphy.scot/

     

     

     

    '.scot' FGS

     

    why not .haggis or .bru

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    I make a point of reading all the campaign leaflets I get. The latest one seems to be all about Scotland and nothing about our local constituency and has made its way to the recycling as I don't need it to light my gas fire.

    Interestingly the Labout one was more focussed on constituency issues rather than just Scotland-wide ones

    .

     

    Which issues out of interest?

     

    Danny Alexander has been reminded us that he's the "Highland Hero / Highland Champion" (his words) almost daily. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Clicked on that link to Jim Murphy's website, bad for the blood pressure! 

     

    http://www.jimmurphy.scot/news-room/News-desk/news.aspx?p=1041606

     

    What economically illiterate nonsense. It's in a similar vein to how Scotland is 'subsidised', but the UK has a deficit! So Scotland would have run a £6.5b budget deficit last year (well it may or may not have, it's long been suspected that GERS under estimates certain taxes that would be due to a Scottish Treasury), but the UK had almost another £100b deficit at £97.5billion. It's late but i make that out as Scotland being around £1.5b better off in FFA than a per capita share of last year's UK deficit. 

    Edited by skifreak
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    What Catch said!

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    Posted
  • Location: A cottage in the woods, Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Ice
  • Location: A cottage in the woods, Northants

    Sassenach agrees with Catch

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    I think there's something in the water this morning, maybe we're all pumped up cos there's snow in the air? :D Love your post frogesque :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Aye, mebe! You did no bad yourself Catch  :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Breaking...

     

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/cracking-comres-poll-of-all-labour-held.html

     

    Cracking ComRes poll of all Labour-held seats in Scotland shows gigantic 19% swing to the SNP
     
    The headline pretty much contains all the information I have at the moment, but I'll update this post when more details are made available.  A 19% swing is (unbelievably) a touch lower than the
     
    Ashcroft constituency polls were generally showing, although that may simply be because the swing isn't quite as huge in affluent Labour-held areas that Ashcroft hasn't covered yet.  It would still be enough to cause absolute carnage.

     

     
     
    More to follow...
     
    Apparently full results at 6.30.
     
    ITV presenter promoting the results is in Paisley and Renfrewshire to ask voters why they're going SNP. So, no results, but suggests the poll says that one is falling...
     
    It's Dougie Alexander's seat at 60% Lab / 18% SNP in 2010...
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Comres poll gives this for seats previously held by Labour (they have none at the minute - no party holds any):

     

    SNP 43% (+24)
    Labour 37% (-14)
    Conservatives 13% (-1)
    Greens 2% (+1)
    UKIP 2% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats 2% (-12)
     
    Uniform swing sees Labour lose 28 of 41 to the SNP.
     
    However, should be more than this as we know from constituency polling and other studies that the SNP gain is strongest in the strongest Labour seats. i.e. where it needs to be.
     
    Poll used flawed 2010 weighting with both Labour and Lib up-weighted as usual to the detriment of the SNP. Even after weighting the sample is too Labour 2010 heavy.
     
    Nice.
     
    ---
     
    Really simple conversion to national poll gives:
     
    45% SNP
    30% Lab
    16% Con
    3% Lib
    6% Other
     
    Which is particularly impressive for a 2010 weighted poll and looks better than 2011 constituency vote where the SNP took 70% of seats.
     
    Also, suggests no Con change since 2010 which suggests Con voters are not planning to vote Labour tactically. We know Labour are now targeting the conservative + UKIP vote, having largely given up on 2010 Lab to SNP + Yes, but there's no evidence its working.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

     

    Comres poll gives this for seats previously held by Labour (they have none at the minute - no party holds any):

     

    SNP 43% (+24)
    Labour 37% (-14)
    Conservatives 13% (-1)
    Greens 2% (+1)
    UKIP 2% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats 2% (-12)
     
    Uniform swing sees Labour lose 28 of 41 to the SNP.
     
    However, should be more than this as we know from constituency polling and other studies that the SNP gain is strongest in the strongest Labour seats. i.e. where it needs to be.
     
    Poll used flawed 2010 weighting with both Labour and Lib up-weighted as usual to the detriment of the SNP. Even after weighting the sample is too Labour 2010 heavy.
     
    Nice.
     
    ---
     
    Really simple conversion to national poll gives:
     
    45% SNP
    30% Lab
    16% Con
    3% Lib
    6% Other
     
    Which is particularly impressive for a 2010 weighted poll and looks better than 2011 constituency vote where the SNP took 70% of seats.
     
    Also, suggests no Con change since 2010 which suggests Con voters are not planning to vote Labour tactically. We know Labour are now targeting the conservative + UKIP vote, having largely given up on 2010 Lab to SNP + Yes, but there's no evidence its working.

     

    That point is, basically, backed up by the tables which break the result down into seats where Labour's majority is >40% over SNP, 30-40% over SNP and <30%.

    All of the >40% seats (the likes of Glasgow NE and Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath) except for Glenrothes and Rutherglen, were polled by Ashcroft, with an aggregate lead on the standard VI question of 4%, and on this poll the SNP is a staggering 6% up in these seats, suggesting they'd take almost all of them (although the MoE is around 6%) and that the swing in these seats is around 25% as suggested by Ashcroft. The slightly less amazing number is for the 30-40% majority seats, where the SNP and Lab is tied, on these figures, but where the aggregate of the Ashcroft polls in these seats so far is around a 9% SNP lead, with only 3 of 12 seats in this category not polled. Again, the MoE for this subsample is also 6-7%, significantly greater than the combined 9000 aggregate sample of the Ashcroft polls, and with the weighting as you say it isn't drastically worse, but that would be the only sign of any real swing back that I could see.

    For the seats where Labour's majority is <30% the SNP has an 8% lead, which is largely as I suspected - many strongly middle class or no-voting seats are included in this list, e.g. Edinburgh South, East Lothian, Stirling, Aberdeen North and South, so these seats, even if (as I reckon will happen) we win them, it will be on much smaller swings, although fortunately the required swing is much lower anyway. Also, difficult to tell whether there was an even geographical spread on these or not - for example, if a disproportionately large part of the 30-40 subsample came from, say, rural Galloway and suburban Dunfermline then that would definitely skew things, as would having most of the 40% sample from the least affluent bits of Glasgow NE and Kirkcaldy (albeit that wouldn't be especially unrepresentative of those seats). Overall though, looks pretty much in line with the rest of the polling data, which is a positive.

    Anyway, Ashcroft might just have a Scottish seat in his polls tomorrow, although it's hard to tell - he said he was releasing polls for the '8 closest seats so far', which would imply a revisit to Mundell's seat and East Ren, although since he polled there just a month ago he might just be meaning the closest English marginals. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Agreed LSS.

     

    The main thing about the Comres poll that was pointed out by those knowledgeable on the subject was the weird weighting.

     

    Not only did it use flawed 2010 weighting, but actually grouped the SNP with 'another party' for this, i.e. they were grouped with the UKIP, Greens, SSP etc. A very strange approach given the SNP were the second largest party in Scotland in 2010 and comfortably ahead of the Tories + Libs in Labour seats overall.

     

    Essentially, Comres used English polling methods for Scotland. I guess this is because they have very little experience in polling Scotland. In my records, they've never GE polled here before at all. 

     

    Makes the excellent SNP result all the better.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie (and yes there are Scottish Liberal Democrats unlike the Labour branch office) has attacked Jim McColl for speaking out in support of full fiscal autonomy.  So the Lib Dems are now attacking and ridiculing one of their long term core principles and that needs to be made clear to anyone still thinking of supporting the Lib Dems this time round on their former federalist credentials. I don't really understand how the Lib Dems got to where they are, they should be there with the SNP leading a full campaign for full fiscal autonomy, but it seems all the federalists and home rulers have left, leaving a bitter rump of arch unionists behind who are anything but Liberal and despise democracy!  

     

    Labour have been on an anti FFA/DevoMax splurge in social media in recent days too, Project Fear is being cranked up again with tales of economic disaster and tax hike misery. So we can probably expect every attempt to roll back even the modest changes of the Smith Commission. 

     

    Even if you oppose independence because you believe we are better working together in the Union and/or because you feel British, if you also want to see a stronger parliament that is democratically accountable for revenue it needs for it's spending then the only way to send that message in May is by voting SNP. The Lib Dems won't do it.

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