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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Aye. Seems even Ed's not overly enthusiastic about Murphy.

     

    Well maybe Murphy is actually going to try to break London control over Scottish Labour after all if that's the case? Maybe Murphy is about to try to carve out his own little northern empire since his excursion south hasn't worked out quite as well as he'd planned?

     

    Edit: I've just gone and read the full Independent article and wow! So it appear that the MPs at least are pushing for Murphy and Dugdale as they are the most well known/popular. So personality over substance in the hope of keeping their jobs after May, and sod the longer term future of the party north of the border. Quite why they seem to think Murphy is popular in Scotland, and therefore their potential savior, eludes me. Being on TV a lot does not always equate to being popular, as Ed will attest to. If Murphy does get the gig I look forward to the huge raft of comedy material he provided on his 'Irn Bru crate' tour coming back to haunt him.

    Edited by Ravelin
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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    So David Cameron says an EU referendum will not damage the UK economy and then slams those who argue the UK should stay in the EU "come what may"! Does he do irony?

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    So David Cameron says an EU referendum will not damage the UK economy and then slams those who argue the UK should stay in the EU "come what may"! Does he do irony?

     

    To be honest Skifreak, I am sickened by what has occurred since the referendum. Whilst I always knew the No vote would be a disaster for Scotland, not in my worst dreams, did I think it would happen so far and so fast.

     

    Still, the Devo Maxer No voters might save the day by voting SNP next May. If Scotland brings in 40+ SNP MP's then maybe, just maybe, a fully federal UK will be on the cards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Aren't we better 'pooling and sharing' resources with the EU? What about 'being part of something bigger'? You know, 'one of the most successful free markets in the world'?

     

    I assume Cameron will also now slam those who argue Scotland should remain part of the UK 'come what may'? He must of course back the Scottish government negotiating a new deal with Westminster and if that's not achieved, going for another referendum. In his own words, he doesn't believe in 'increasing union' between countries, rather just a common market and co-operation.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Well maybe Murphy is actually going to try to break London control over Scottish Labour after all if that's the case? Maybe Murphy is about to try to carve out his own little northern empire since his excursion south hasn't worked out quite as well as he'd planned?

     

    Carve?  Now there's a nice word!........Somehow though I don't think it'll be Murphy doing the carving!  This had me bent over with laughter!   Don't think I've ever seen anything quite so subtle.

    post-1989-0-60289800-1415657092_thumb.jp

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Just had a chance to now browse the Wings panelbase tables...


     


    People who plan to vote SNP in 2015 support for independence:


    93% Yes


    4% No


    3% DK/WNV


     


    Similar for Yougov


    96% Yes


    2% No


    2% DK


     

     

    With SNP on 48% average for Westminster, it seems the 45% are going to vote SNP. 

     

    Which of course means, with the unionist vote split under FPTP....

     

    This is important as it suggests there will be no Labour recovery. If Yes didn't so strongly correlate back to SNP (this is far stronger than ahead of September 2011 SNP vs Yes which was more 80%), then you might imagine some backsliding to Labour potentially. Not so it appears.

     

    Labour are really in deep dung.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Happen to see a brief snippet of the Sunday politics show, the panel were worried that Labour might not be able to form a coalition government if the SNP have 20 MPs after the election 2015. It may have just dawned on the Labour that they are in trouble in Scotland. New leader, new sense of direction and the BBC to help? (New sense of direction will be regurgitated propaganda....that's the cynic in me). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Happen to see a brief snippet of the Sunday politics show, the panel were worried that Labour might not be able to form a coalition government if the SNP have 20 MPs after the election 2015. It may have just dawned on the Labour that they are in trouble in Scotland. New leader, new sense of direction and the BBC to help? (New sense of direction will be regurgitated propaganda....that's the cynic in me). 

     

    Apparently, when Katy Clark MP was asked on Scotland Tonight why Miliband is less popular in Scotland than Nick Clegg, she replied "It could be Scotland that lets us down."  Campaign shoulder to shoulder with the Tories, gleefully backing their threats on currency, borders, the EU etc, then assume you'll get votes afterwards?

     

    Labour's arrogance knows no bounds.

     

    Meanwhile, after Labour furiously denied the Lamont 'Branch Office' accusation, Murphy tells us it's all true and control needs to be wrenched from London.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/murphy-i-will-wrest-scottish-labour-from-uk-party-control.25842676

     

    Murphy: I will wrest Scottish Labour from UK party control
     
    JIM Murphy will today pledge to loosen Scottish Labour's ties with the UK party and raise £1 million to take on the SNP if he becomes leader next month.
     
    The frontrunner in the race to replace Johann Lamont will outline plans to wrest greater control over campaigning, policy, fundraising and staffing from UK Labour.

     

     

    I think Jim has seen the writing on the wall and his best chance of furthering his career is as an MSP.

     

    I wanted him to win. Now I'm thinking him losing the leadership contest might be just as fun.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    From the same Herald article...

     

     

     

    The former Scottish Secretary will reveal plans to raise the £1m through increased donations from unions, businesses and members, and by attracting new members to the party.

     

    All Labour's existing Holyrood and Westminster seats, and target constituencies, would be guaranteed £5000 for campaigning, he will say, and paid organisers would be recruited in each Scottish parliament region to support local parties.

     

    Well if he manages to raise £1m outwith the auspices of the larger UK Labour party well done him. If he's going to take over employment of the staff in Scotland then that £1m is going to be eaten into, and will need to be constantly refreshed of course.

     

    When it comes to cash for campaigning, how much of the £1m will be left? In that respect he's going to find it hard to outspend the SNP I'd think. All the SNP need to do is raise £12 from each of their 85K members to match his fundraising target, something that shouldn't be too difficult to do (I'll almost certainly contribute more than that towards my local constituencies funds for May 2015, on top of my regular contribution to the central party). Not that I think it should be all about who has the most cash, it'll also about who has the most 'feet on the ground' and who is going to most passionate about ensuring their candidate wins.

     

    P.S. I'll give the LibDems some credit for being eternal optimists. I got a copy of their semi-regular newsletter through the door last week, one thing they seem to be good at if you have a LibDem MP/MSP. Well it had one of their usual election result graphs with the caption "Election results from 2010 show that in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine it's a straight race between the LibDems and the Conservatives". Yeah, right! 

    Edited by Ravelin
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    From the same Herald article...

     

     

     

     

    Well if he manages to raise £1m outwith the auspices of the larger UK Labour party well done him. If he's going to take over employment of the staff in Scotland then that £1m is going to be eaten into, and will need to be constantly refreshed of course.

     

    When it comes to cash for campaigning, how much of the £1m will be left? In that respect he's going to find it hard to outspend the SNP I'd think. All the SNP need to do is raise £12 from each of their 85K members to match his fundraising target, something that shouldn't be too difficult to do (I'll almost certainly contribute more than that towards my local constituencies funds for May 2015, on top of my regular contribution to the central party). Not that I think it should be all about who has the most cash, it'll also about who has the most 'feet on the ground' and who is going to most passionate about ensuring their candidate wins.

     

    That's assuming he can raise £1m. The more I read about Murphy the more I dislike him. I wonder if London Labour will allow him to wrest any more control from the main party, they may see that as too much of a threat?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Just in case you had any doubts.

     

    Labour party first, Scotland second (if you are lucky).

     

    https://archive.today/ekHmq

     

    scr.png

     

    Also, that Katy Clark interview discussed on Wings:

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/behind-the-mask/

     

    ...Readers could be forgiven for feeling that in those seven years out of power in Scotland, the party hasn’t learned a thing. Rather than admitting its own failings, time and again it retreats to a sour, bitter resentment of the electorate (alongside its undying tribal hatred of the SNP), and a demand that voters return what Scottish Labour regards as its birthright – unquestioned, unchallenged control of Scotland.

     
    Labour’s unquenchable sense of entitlement in Scotland is a plague, not only on the party but on Scotland itself, because it destroys any chance of a strong, effective opposition. And sometimes the only thing you can do with a plague is to burn it out and start again from the ashes.

     

    It's incredible. Basically, its our duty to vote Labour because the UK is a two party state. Other parties don't matter; it's Labour or the Tories. Scotland should vote Labour and if it does not, 'it lets Labour down'.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    From the same Herald article...

     

     

     

     

    Well if he manages to raise £1m outwith the auspices of the larger UK Labour party well done him. If he's going to take over employment of the staff in Scotland then that £1m is going to be eaten into, and will need to be constantly refreshed of course.

     

    When it comes to cash for campaigning, how much of the £1m will be left? In that respect he's going to find it hard to outspend the SNP I'd think. All the SNP need to do is raise £12 from each of their 85K members to match his fundraising target, something that shouldn't be too difficult to do (I'll almost certainly contribute more than that towards my local constituencies funds for May 2015, on top of my regular contribution to the central party). Not that I think it should be all about who has the most cash, it'll also about who has the most 'feet on the ground' and who is going to most passionate about ensuring their candidate wins.

     

    P.S. I'll give the LibDems some credit for being eternal optimists. I got a copy of their semi-regular newsletter through the door last week, one thing they seem to be good at if you have a LibDem MP/MSP. Well it had one of their usual election result graphs with the caption "Election results from 2010 show that in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine it's a straight race between the LibDems and the Conservatives". Yeah, right! 

    Does this mean Scotland can expect to see bus loads of English Red Tory activists heading north? It's not as if there can be that many SLAB activists left.

     

    Regarding finance though, Perhaps Cameron & Co. can let them have a bit of bung since they all managed to work so close during the BT campaign.  :girl_devil:

     

    Now, Just for laughs, suppose the good Mr. Murphy wins the SLAB leadership then gets the size 12 from Westminster in May and also fails to get a place in Holyrood 2016 . . . 

     

    Answers on a postcard (unstamped) to the Rt. Honerable Ed Miliband MP, House of Commons. (EDIT: if he's still there of course)

    Edited by frogesque
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     

    Now, Just for laughs, suppose the good Mr. Murphy wins the SLAB leadership then gets the size 12 from Westminster in May and also fails to get a place in Holyrood 2016 . . . 

     

    Well, they could put him first on the list. That way if he failed to win a constituency seat, then he should be ok.

     

    Would be utter humiliation. It's like being a Tory or Lib if your leader can't even win a seat under FPTP and needs to get in on the list.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    You know when you read something online and you think "Hmmmmmmm".

     

    http://www.labourhame.com/the-nominations-are-over-and-the-debate-begins/#comments

     

    After the post from Jim Murphy there is a comments section. What is currently the 6th comment from a Charlie Robertson made me think "Hmmmmmmm". It sounded too clean, too prepared....

     

    If you copy the image into Google and do a search you find the guy's a marketing and networking consultant. Maybe I'm getting over cynical but there's something not right about the post.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    You know when you read something online and you think "Hmmmmmmm".

     

    http://www.labourhame.com/the-nominations-are-over-and-the-debate-begins/#comments

     

    After the post from Jim Murphy there is a comments section. What is currently the 6th comment from a Charlie Robertson made me think "Hmmmmmmm". It sounded too clean, too prepared....

     

    If you copy the image into Google and do a search you find the guy's a marketing and networking consultant. Maybe I'm getting over cynical but there's something not right about the post.

    Looks like a script from 50 Shades, clinical on the surface but there's a lot of dirty stuff going on under the covers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Looks like a script from 50 Shades, clinical on the surface but there's a lot of dirty stuff going on under the covers.

     

    50 Shades of Murphy? Are you sure that's enough to cover every angle?

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Not sure of this has been posted recently..

     

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

     

    Tories wiped out, Lib Dems down to 1 and Labour but a handful. Notable scalps, Alan Reid, Michael Moore, David Mundell, Anas Sarwar (please make it so!!), Tom Harris, Malcolm Bruce, Chatshow Charlie.

     

    Two notables not standing as they don't want the embarrasment of losing, Alastair Darling and Menzies Campbell. Also psycho Eric Joyce, all three seats will go SNP.

     

    Margaret Currand and wee Dougie Alexander also in trouble.

     

    Roll the 45 + 15 Revenge in May!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Not sure of this has been posted recently..

     

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

     

    Tories wiped out, Lib Dems down to 1 and Labour but a handful....

     

    Yes, I understand the EC site has been updated recently to include regional models for Scotland and take into account Scotland-only polling.

     

    Definitely a must as UK uniform swing predictions were coming up with e.g. 10 seats for the SNP even though polls had them on 45% of the vote in Scotland and 4-5% across the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Not sure of this has been posted recently..

     

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

     

    Tories wiped out, Lib Dems down to 1 and Labour but a handful. Notable scalps, Alan Reid, Michael Moore, David Mundell, Anas Sarwar (please make it so!!), Tom Harris, Malcolm Bruce, Chatshow Charlie.

     

    Two notables not standing as they don't want the embarrasment of losing, Alastair Darling and Menzies Campbell. Also psycho Eric Joyce, all three seats will go SNP.

     

    Margaret Currand and wee Dougie Alexander also in trouble.

     

    Roll the 45 + 15 Revenge in May!

    Aye, looks good, still a bit of work to do in Fife though, Glenrothes looks possible but Pa Broon (Kirkaldy & Cowdenbeath) still appears safe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    Silly subsample time...

     

    Latest MORI UK-wide poll:

    32% Con

    29% Lab

    14% UKIP

    9% Lib

    8% SNP  :shok:

    7% Green

     

    Scotland subsample:

    59% SNP

    14% Lab

    12% Con

    8% Green

    4% Lib

    2% UKIP

     

    SNP+Green = 67%

     

    If the SNP overtake the UK Libs, can they take their spot in the Leader's debates?

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

     

    Silly subsample time...
     
    Latest MORI UK-wide poll:
    32% Con
    29% Lab
    14% UKIP
    9% Lib
    8% SNP  :shok:
    7% Green
     
    Scotland subsample:
    59% SNP
    14% Lab
    12% Con
    8% Green
    4% Lib
    2% UKIP
     
    SNP+Green = 67%
     
    If the SNP overtake the UK Libs, can they take their spot in the Leader's debates?

     

     

    I don't know what's more incredible, the SNP at 8% UK wide, or 59% in Scotland, or Labour almost being beaten into third place by the Tories in Scotland or the LibDems looking like they might end up as the sixth biggest party in Scotland. Too much to take in all at once.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    I don't know what's more incredible, the SNP at 8% UK wide, or 59% in Scotland, or Labour almost being beaten into third place by the Tories in Scotland or the LibDems looking like they might end up as the sixth biggest party in Scotland. Too much to take in all at once.

     May 2015 - Bring it on!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    We should never have voted Yes. Look what's happening as a result of indy.

     

    scotships.jpg

     

    We should have listened to the unionists.

     

    separationshutsshipyards.jpg

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/barely-worth-the-words/

     

    #bestofbothworlds

     

    Anyway, why is the SNP vote shooting up again?

     

    EDIT

     

    Incidentally, does this mean unionist politicians no longer consider Mrs SS a (in the pejorative sense) 'foreigner'?

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    Another interesting couple of questiona from the above MORI poll.

     

    On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statement?

    Labour is ready to form the next government

     

    Scotland:

    20% Agree

    70% Disagree

     

    UK

    22% Agree

    61% Disagree

     

    On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statement?

    Ed Miliband is ready to be Prime Minister

     

    Scotland:

    8% Agree

    82% Disagree

     

    UK

    13% Agree

    72% Disagree

     

    Man oh man. When Labour are less popular in Scotland than the UK as a whole...

     

    ---

     

    EDIT.

     


    Populus poll for the FT. Question on equality, Scotland subsample.


     



    25% It doesn't matter how big the gap is between the richest and the poorest, as long as the poorest are getting better off

    62% The gap between rich and poor should not be allowed to get too wide, even if that means holding back the richest

     

    Pleasingly in line with my own views. 


     

    And by Party support (UK data, apart from SNP obviously)

     

    SNP


    19% It doesn't matter how big the gap is between the richest and the poorest, as long as the poorest are getting better off

    69% The gap between rich and poor should not be allowed to get too wide, even if that means holding back the richest


     


    Lab


    22% It doesn't matter how big the gap is between the richest and the poorest, as long as the poorest are getting better off

    65% The gap between rich and poor should not be allowed to get too wide, even if that means holding back the richest

     

    UKIP


    28% It doesn't matter how big the gap is between the richest and the poorest, as long as the poorest are getting better off

    51% The gap between rich and poor should not be allowed to get too wide, even if that means holding back the richest


     

    Lib


    35% It doesn't matter how big the gap is between the richest and the poorest, as long as the poorest are getting better off

    44% The gap between rich and poor should not be allowed to get too wide, even if that means holding back the richest

     

    Con


    46% It doesn't matter how big the gap is between the richest and the poorest, as long as the poorest are getting better off

    40% The gap between rich and poor should not be allowed to get too wide, even if that means holding back the richest



     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Aye, looks good, still a bit of work to do in Fife though, Glenrothes looks possible but Pa Broon (Kirkaldy & Cowdenbeath) still appears safe.

    Serious question, if Broon thinks there's even the slightest chance of not retaining his seat do you think he'll retire rather than face the potential embarrassment? When do the nominations for the seats need to be in anyway?

    I don't know what's more incredible, the SNP at 8% UK wide, or 59% in Scotland, or Labour almost being beaten into third place by the Tories in Scotland or the LibDems looking like they might end up as the sixth biggest party in Scotland.

    I'd just love to see at least one poll with Labour in 3rd place behind the Tories. How the hell would the Daily Record and BBC spin that one?

    As for Milliband's poll ratings, you begin to wonder if they could get any worse. I've said for well over a year the guy is unelectable and I stick by that.

    Edited by Ravelin
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