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Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    So the SoS for Scotland, Alistair Carmichael described as weasel words the concept that Scotland would have another referendum if the people of Scotland vote for it. A Liberal Democrat describing democratic principles as weasel words... Perhaps I need to retract my comment in the UK thread that the Lib Dems are starting to get it.

     

    I don't think we need to waste any more time listening to the views from that corner of the chamber [sNP MPs]

    Well Mr SoS next May you will find that the Scottish Lib Dems occupy a very small corner of the said chamber indeed.

    Edited by skifreak
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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Well Mr SoS next May you will find that the Scottish Lib Dems occupy a very small corner of the said chamber indeed.

     

    Of that we can rely on. Libs are screwed in Scotland. A Fringe party in Holyrood, soon to be the same at Westminster level. At best they'll keep 2/11 of what they have, with the bulk of the rest falling to the SNP.

     

    Could have been so different if they'd backed their policy of federalism and proposed a second question for a 3-way referendum in 2007.

     

    The question is whether Labour can be taken out. Looking very likely in all polls; SNP surging ahead. Developments - including today's HoC debate farce - seem to be just fuel for this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     

    Anyway, SNP polling 62%! 

     

    No quite, but a reflection of where mean is.

     

    Few years back and MoE changes in subsets would mean 40%+ SNP for Westminster in Scotland in a UK subset would be a high end MoE result. Now it's 62%...

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    JFF as they say in the model output threads in winter:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=13&LAB=16&LIB=4&NAT=62&region=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted

    That 62% SNP sub sample polling figures into EC:

    CON	- 1	 0LAB	-41	 0LIB	-11	 0SNP	+53	59
    Edited by skifreak
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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29606220

     

    Having read this article on the BBC, I looked at the comments page and the top rated are not looking good for labour...most people will get the impression that Labour are undemocratic with this english only votes. More importantly, Labour have not grasped the concept that in Scotland they are already losing support and with UK MSN portraying them in the undemocratic light they could shed further support.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Devo debate now on BBC Parliament from The House of Lords.

    Nobel Labour peers dripping with bile and completely unaware of the current debate in Scotland.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Devo debate now on BBC Parliament from The House of Lords.

    Nobel Labour peers dripping with bile and completely unaware of the current debate in Scotland.

     

    I suppose EVEL / WLQ also applies to the Lords too. 

     

    Couldn't have e.g. Scottish Labour lords debating English domestic policy which is devolved in Scotland; that is already undemocratic.

     

    What a pickle eh. 

     

    Certainly, it seems a No vote was not a vote for stability / normality, but for likely a great big mess as predicted on here. A Yes would have been much quicker and cleaner.

     

    May 2015 could well be particularly screwed up if Scotland elects the SNP and England (+Wales to an extent) elects a good few UKIP. Possibility of neither Labour nor the Tories strong enough to lead a simple coalition, even with the decimated Libs, leaving the SNP and UKIP as potential kingmakers of sorts, although with likely severe limits on who each of these might work with on bills (SNP would not go into formal coalition with the Tories nor UKIP and Labour wouldn't have them...will not vote on English policy... UKIP e.g. hardly going to work with Labour or a pro-EU lib dem group..).

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    The way I see it, Westminister wants a quick fix to more devolved power to Scotland, all nicely wrapped up by GE 2015. Unfortunately the cats are out of the bag, there will be lots of scrambling about try to make concessions to each party, but ultimately, if more powers are not forth coming remotely close to "home Rule", then things will become very interesting in Scotland and the elite in Westminster.

     

    As it has been said before, this is the being of the end for cosey two party monopoly in UK governance.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    So the referendum really was about the hope of the poorer Yes voters wanting to improve their chances in life against the fear of the richer selfish No voters in losing their wealth..

     

    Poverty survey shows that the highest Yes vote came from the councils with the highest incidences of poverty, where as the No vote was stronger in the wealthier areas.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-29618050

     

    No real surprise I suppose but I guess within that, there will be many No voters who want to make amends for their vote and are demanding Devo Max in larger and larger numbers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    I like the new Guardian coined phrase "The Forces of Evel".

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/14/solemn-vow-to-scots-william-hague

     

    After the promises, the payback. Having told the Scots they could have anything they wanted provided they didn’t vote for independence – a sequence of events now officially trademarked “The Solemn Vow†by all parties – parliament met for a general debate on devolution following the Scottish referendum. The title of the debate was just about the last time that Scotland was mentioned for the next 90 minutes.
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    I like the new Guardian coined phrase "The Forces of Evel".

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/14/solemn-vow-to-scots-william-hague

    The title of the debate was just about the last time that Scotland was mentioned for the next 90 minutes.

     

    Pretty well sums up the 'debate'. Even the Speaker seemed to be in on the act with snide put downs and supercilious comments. As long as Westminster has the Union, Scots can be relegated to second class peasants citizens subjects.

     

    It would be nice to see a total wipeout of Labour and Tory MPs in the GE but I do hope the Greens will have a presence as well as the SNP. Don't like absolute majorities - leads to laziness and sloppy thinking!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     

    It would be nice to see a total wipeout of Labour and Tory MPs in the GE but I do hope the Greens will have a presence as well as the SNP. Don't like absolute majorities - leads to laziness and sloppy thinking!

     

    The problem here is FPTP. There's really little chance of the Greens getting a seat anywhere and so FPTP means a Green vote is a vote for unionist parties which they'll greatly appreciate. 

     

    So, if you want devo max or indy, SNP are your best bet for 2015. In the end, Scots MPs have little influence in Westminster. Scottish unionist party MPs have nearly zero influence as they'll just vote with the UK party. Sure we had Broon as PM, but did he actually do anything for Scotland? Nope; he just cared about being the head honcho of the UK. An SNP majority of Scottish MPs would however have some clout and in many ways would be feared much more than an SNP majority in Holyrood. It would be feared because it would mean unionist parties were now a minority in Scotland (which does not bode well for survival of the union), but also because in the case of a hung parliament the SNP could wield serious power, and finally, the SNP could actually withdraw Scotland from the union simply through a majority Yes vote for this amongst Scots Westminster MPs. This has been the means the union could be ended by Scotland since it began; something the unionists loved to remind Scots of right up to 1999 when focus drifted to Holyrood. It is highly improbable that the SNP would go down this route due to potential difficulties with international recognition, but legally, they could.

     

    My advice when people ask is SNP 2015 then who you really support in 2016 for Holyrood; if you want indy or devo max, then a pro-indy party. I'd be quite happy if the SNP didn't get a majority in 2016 (although people can't accuse them of power abuse with the current majority they have - they've continued with consensus on bills) but overall pro-indy parties did, e.g. SNP + Greens + SSP.

     

    Personally, I'm against FPTP. However, since UK parties seem so in favour of it, I'm content with the irony that it could result in a huge unionist wipe-out in May and the death of Scottish Labour as a significant political force in Scotland. Labour after all begged the Scottish people for this to happen by asking them to vote No (meaning Scots would vote in the 2015 FPTP election). Let's give them their wish.

     

    For now I think the SNP should go into 2015 on a devo max ticket and the other pro-indy parties should support them for that. Depending on what happens here, they and other pro-indy parties can go into 2016 on a 'If devo max not delivered by 20XX (with current parliamentary term), then another referendum on indy. Alternatively, if more devo is delivered, but is far from max, such a referendum could be new devo offered (what you get if you vote no) vs indy (the result of a Yes vote) which would be perfectly fair / democratic.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/september-national-newspaper-abcs-times-best-performing-title-fourth-month-row

     

    The Sunday Mail (down 16.99 per cent), Daily Star Sunday (down 15.95 per cent), Daily Record (down 14.5 per cent) and the Daily Star (down 14.16 per cent) were the worst performing titles year on year.

     

     

    You reap what you sow.

     

    Seems commenting on articles is no longer allowed on the Record/Mail either. Wonder why.

     

    Maybe it was that readers were very, very angry at its betrayal of its traditional Labour vote readership in supporting the Tories in the referendum campaign and particularly its lies over 'the vow'. Until the commenting vanished, that was very much the case.

     

    Sign of the times.

     

    SNP healthy lead in MORI Scotland subset today too; 5% of the UK national total (60% in Scotland) with labour on 28% in the subsets. Miliband getting slaughtered in sat ratings as usual.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania

    I myself am such a political 'tragic', I would be in a permanent state of excitement if I was living in Scotland right now....such rapid change to the political establishment taking place. Can't compare of course, but wish my local people could turn politics on its head like this. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Very little press coverage of these latest polls either, the MSM propoganda continues and they wonder why no buys their papers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Very little press coverage of these latest polls either, the MSM propoganda continues and they wonder why no buys their papers.

     

    Well technically they are not 'full' polls as we are using subsets of UK polls. An aggregate of these has reasonable statistical validity, although papers are unlikely to report such things.

     

    Just prior to 2010, SNP were getting at best 2% of the UK national total. That's 24% in Scotland. They got 20%.

     

    Now they are getting 4.3% of the UK total, conservatively, and that's with the 2010 false recall problem that hurts them and which didn't exist pre-2010 obviously.

     

    What we have is a lot of 'Labour in trouble in Scotland' articles floating around so I'm sure there have been polls but unpublished. 

     

    Survation are supposed to be polling Scotland for, ironically, the daily record this month. It remains to be seen whether this happens and whether it includes Westminster VI.

     

    ---

     

    On a related note...

     

    My own current UK-wide Westminster VI analysis for October so far (MORI, Opinium, ICM, Survation, Ashcroft, Yougov).
     
    No pollster favoured; average of values from each pollster in each calendar month. For pollsters doing multiple polls, these are averaged to give the monthly value which is used in the aggregate.
     
    Changes on September in brackets:
     
    33(-2)% Lab
    31(nc)% Con
    17(+2)% UKIP
    8(nc)% Lib
    ...
    4.3(+0.5)% SNP
     
    Lab lead the lowest it has been (2%) since it peaked (11%) in early 2013. Losing to UKIP mainly now.
     
    SNP share very impressive (and conservative as 2010 recall problems present) given Scotland is 8.3% of the UK electorate.
     
    A perfect storm is brewing?
     
    Tory + UKIP = 48%. SNP taking a majority of Scottish seats... 'Vow' not worth the toilet paper it was written on... EU ref potentially on the Horizon...
     
    Increasingly ripe for another iref in 2016 manifestos...
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    See this Tory Lord Freud and his no minimum wage for the disabled...

     

    Remember Labour had this idea too.

     

    https://archive.today/L8uLg

     

    Labour Backed £4-a-Day Pay for Mentally Disabled

     

     

    ATOS was Labour. Work (as slave Labour) for benefits (if you lose your job after paying taxes+NI for years through no fault of your own) was Labour. NHS privatisation was Labour. Tuition fees came from Labour. Bedroom Tax came from Labour. Tories are just straight up about such things; that's the only difference.

     

    Expenses 12/13:

    - Alex Salmond: £9,691

    - Anas Sarwar: £204,607

     

    Troughing red Tories.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    See this Tory Lord Freud and his no minimum wage for the disabled...

     

    Remember Labour had this idea too.

     

     

    ATOS was Labour. Work (as slave Labour) for benefits (if you lose your job after paying taxes+NI for years through no fault of your own) was Labour. NHS privatisation was Labour. Tuition fees came from Labour. Bedroom Tax came from Labour. Tories are just straight up about such things; that's the only difference.

     

    Expenses 12/13:

    - Alex Salmond: £9,691

    - Anas Sarwar: £204,607

     

    Troughing red Tories.

     

    Freud started off as one of Blair's recruits. Tory and Labour attitude to benefits is so close now that it was an easy switch for him to make to the Tories. What a sad, sad state of affairs. I've disliked Freud for years, now bordering on visceral hatred.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    But still Labour Broadcasting Corporation keeps quiet on these things.

    Although you can guarantee Pa Broon's speech tonight in Westminster will be given good coverage.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Although you can guarantee Pa Broon's speech tonight in Westminster will be given good coverage.

     

    Yougov - which is quite biased towards labour - got this for El Gordo in terms of trust early September:
     
    32% Trust
    58% Don't trust
     
    This was before the broken vow and the EVEL / anti-Scottish devolution stance. Polar opposite to ratings for AS and NS.
     
    I think the BBC and Labour mistake their own adoration for Broon with a general public one.
     
    He's a failure and typifies everything wrong with the North British Labour party.
     
    I do hope they keep rolling him out to make sure as many people as possible become aware of this. Although going by the above ratings, there can't be many who are not.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    But still Labour Broadcasting Corporation keeps quiet on these things.

    Although you can guarantee Pa Broon's speech tonight in Westminster will be given good coverage.

    post-4009-0-05528700-1413446547_thumb.pn

    Lies, damn lies and the BBC!

    Anyone just glancing over the headline would think Brown was setting the agenda and leading the way in some major constitutional role - er no, he'll give a speech sometime late this evening in a so called adjournment debate to a likely all but empty chamber with perhaps one response from the government benches before the day's business is concluded in the house - so around 20-30minutes tops!

    I'm not sure which is the bigger farce, Brown's debate or the BBC's Scottish News page this morning. Will this stay top headline for days, unlike Nicola Sturgeon being confirmed as SNP leader (and thus effective FM elect) which quickly sunk to the bottom of the page.

    This has been the BBC's most powerful form of bias, notionally balanced, but always selective prominence and creative omission - leading to headlines like today's, not actually a lie but deliberately formed to intentionally mislead.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Nice piece by Wings on how resources are "pooled" throughout the Uk, erm pretty much only for the benefit of the Midlands and South East of England..

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-pooling-and-the-sharing/#more-62249

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    So David Cameron promises 'one last go' at EU migration restrictions. Two things. Firstly, that language seems deliberate to imply that if the HM Government don't get what they want, then HM Government will be backing out? Secondly freedom of movement is a fundamental tenant of the EU and it's not a one way street like the British imperialistic mindset that Brits are free to go and colonise other EU nations, but the people of those other nations don't have the same freedom to come here!

    Could / should the Yes parties stand on a manifesto commitment in 2016 if an EU referendum is coming in 2017 that turns the EU referendum into a defacto Indy Ref? Basically the premise being if Scotland votes to stay in the EU and rUK votes out - then as Scotland can no longer be in both the UK and the EU that is in itself a mandate for independence?

    Perhaps even a second question in Scotland 'If the UK votes to exit the EU - Should Scotland become an independent country?'.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Plenty have made the argument that Scotland wont be independent until we have an independent and balanced media... now Yougov have stats to flag up the influence of an overwhelmingly pro union biased media on the referendum:

     

    A new survey suggests that newspapers played a greater role in determining how people voted in the Scottish Independence referendum last month than either social media or the campaigns themselves.

    The research conducted by YouGov for News UK revealed that 60% of voters said they relied on newspapers (and their websites) for the majority of their information on the independence debate.

    How anybody can equate that with the following quote beggars belief though:

     

    Newspapers remain central to healthy political debate and the Scottish referendum just proved it.

    http://www.news.co.uk/2014/10/survey-reveals-voters-turn-to-newspapers-for-information-on-scottish-independence/

    Edited by skifreak
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Given the declining sales of the pro-union press, hopefully when the next Indi vote comes around there wont be as many left.

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