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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Great post as ever SS.

     

    Is there a website you know of where you can play around the various percentage vote/swings and see what constuencies change hand? I can't seem to find one.

     

    Thanks

     

    http://www.scotlandvotes.com/

     

    Westminster and Holyrood options. As good as any.

     

    When things are tighter, you need to remember the values given are based on a uniform national swing. By that I mean if the SNP are up 5% and Labour down 5%, it is assumed this applies in every seat.

     

    Of course it could be labour are down 10% in glasgow and the SNP up 10%, but less change in already held SNP seats, meaning the uniform swing method underestimates gains.

     

    The bigger the gap the leading party has and lower total share the one behind it has (e.g. in the case of Labour drops below 30%), the more uniform swing predictors improve in accuracy.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    As interesting as the figures at the moment suggest, I'm not going to get over excited about them unless they are still showing something similar in 7-8mths time.

     

    I'm not, as we need to hope Scotland doesn't do its stupid last minute tactical thing again to stop the Tories.

     

    I think we can be sure there'll be no tactical for the Libs so the SNP will destroy them apart from a few seats where they have big leads and local popularity, e.g. northern isles.

     

    Labour less easy to predict. They are however at lows I've never seen before, notably in terms of trust / satisfaction. As mentioned in past posts, Dave C is a god in Scotland compared to Ed and Nick, even though he's seriously unpopular.

     

    Of course the last time a tactical vote was tried it delivered a Tory government just like it did throughout the 80's and early 90's with the feeble 50.

     

    And we are as you say, in a totally different world where 45% voted to end the UK with 74% wishing nearly that. 

     

    If we get a 'devo max please or else' vote, then SNP landslide possible. All we need is people to vote what they voted in the last election in Scotland, i.e. 2011. We're not asking for a big change in loyalties or anything.

     

    ---

     

    Also, at this stage, a narrow SNP lead for Westminster is fine. It will be terrifying Labour and that will have an impact on them; most likely a self destructive one.

     

    I'm sure the SNP are aware of the 2010 weighting issue and they could have asked for 2011 only weighted results as they paid for the poll. 

     

    It wouldn't surprise me if they've been happy to go with 2010 weighting precisely because it makes their lead more slender, but enough to put the wind up Labour.

     

    We are already seeing fall outs in Labour as they wake up to what they may have done.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/labour-chief-quits-amid-vote-fallout.25484429

     

    Labour council chief quits amid indyref fallout
     
    A LEADING Labour Party office bearer has quit her post amid post-referendum fallout, citing disillusion with the party nationally.
     
    Aileen Colleran, chairwoman of Glasgow City Council's Labour administration, has stepped down, claiming the party cannot "pretend it's business as usual" and will leave frontline politics at the next local elections.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    I just put SS's re-weighted poll numbers into Electoral Calculus and got even more dramatic numbers out:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=17.1&LAB=25.6&LIB=3.8&NAT=42.9&region=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted

    SNP 46MPs (+40 seats)Lab 11MPs (-30 seats)Con  2MPs (+1 seat D&G from Labour)LD   0MPs (-11 seats)
    It's virtually unthinkable that Charles Kennedy and Alistair Carmichael would lose their seats, they will be the two Lib Dems in the numbers SS gives above.

    Now if you put the latest YouGov into Electoral Calculus for the whole UK and include UKIP you get Labour short of a majority by 10:

    Lab 316 seatsCon 296 seatsLD   11 seats
    However EC at the UK level doesn't account for the SNP - thus Labour's talked about potential advantage due to fewer votes required per seat may well be nullified by a swing to the SNP in Scotland, 5% swing only 3 seats fall, 8% swing potentially 19 seats could fall.

    If we take the perhaps rather extreme outcome at the top of this post for Scotland on SS's latest figures for weighting the Panelbase poll to 2011 instead of 210 and mash it with the UK figures, Labour loses 36 seats and the Lib Dems 3. You thus end up with:

    326 seats required for overall majority:Con 296 seatsLab 280 seatsSNP  46 seatsLD    8 seats
    A majority coalition UK government could only be formed with the Scottish National Party involved, unless you had a Labour/Tory government. Cue constitutional crises.

    The numbers probably wont be that dramatic, but the potential for a big loss of Labour MPs in Scotland is very definitely there, certainly interesting times.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit
  • Weather Preferences: Hot N' Sunny / Cauld N' Snawy
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit

    post-9026-0-38372500-1412349440_thumb.pnpost-9026-0-40645200-1412349454_thumb.jppost-9026-0-96584600-1412349464_thumb.jppost-9026-0-38421900-1412349475_thumb.jp

    I'm not, as we need to hope Scotland doesn't do its stupid last minute tactical thing again to stop the Tories.

     

    I think we can be sure there'll be no tactical for the Libs so the SNP will destroy them apart from a few seats where they have big leads and local popularity, e.g. northern isles.

     

    Labour less easy to predict. They are however at lows I've never seen before, notably in terms of trust / satisfaction. As mentioned in past posts, Dave C is a god in Scotland compared to Ed and Nick, even though he's seriously unpopular.

     

    Of course the last time a tactical vote was tried it delivered a Tory government just like it did throughout the 80's and early 90's with the feeble 50.

     

    And we are as you say, in a totally different world where 45% voted to end the UK with 74% wishing nearly that. 

     

    If we get a 'devo max please or else' vote, then SNP landslide possible. All we need is people to vote what they voted in the last election in Scotland, i.e. 2011. We're not asking for a big change in loyalties or anything.

     

    ---

     

    Also, at this stage, a narrow SNP lead for Westminster is fine. It will be terrifying Labour and that will have an impact on them; most likely a self destructive one.

     

    I'm sure the SNP are aware of the 2010 weighting issue and they could have asked for 2011 only weighted results as they paid for the poll. 

     

    It wouldn't surprise me if they've been happy to go with 2010 weighting precisely because it makes their lead more slender, but enough to put the wind up Labour.

     

    We are already seeing fall outs in Labour as they wake up to what they may have done.

    SS, I think as long as Labour have that bad toothed, vindictive faced, Alex Salmon hating, Westminster Policy loving Johann Lamont as leader, then the traditional Labour Voters (like me in the past) will vote otherwise!

    Huva swatch at these!

    Big Innes

    Edited by Big Innes Madori
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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Interesting aside to the above numbers, but the surviving 11 SLAB MPs in those figures include the most pro-Union and ardent nat-haters like Willie Bain, Ian Davidson, Margaret Curran, Gordon Brown, Douglas Alexander and of course Jim Murphy. Hardly likely to be encouraging a Labour SNP coalition!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Panelbase trust ratings:

     

    Do you trust NICOLA STURGEON, Deputy First Minister, to stand up for Scotland's interests?
    Yes: 54%
    No: 33%
    Don't know: 13%
    Net trust rating: +21

     

    Do you trust ALEX SALMOND, First Minister, to stand up for Scotland's interests?
    Yes: 55%
    No: 37%
    Don't know: 9%
    Net trust rating: +18

     

    Do you trust JOHANN LAMONT, leader of Scottish Labour, to stand up for Scotland's interests?
    Yes: 37%
    No: 42%
    Don't know: 22%
    Net trust rating: -5

     

    Do you trust RUTH DAVIDSON, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, to stand up for Scotland's interests?
    Yes: 31%
    No: 51%
    Don't know: 18%
    Net trust rating: -20

     

    * Do you trust WILLIE RENNIE, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, to stand up for Scotland's interests?
    Yes: 23%
    No: 51%
    Don't know: 26%
    Net trust rating: -28

     

    Do you trust ED MILIBAND, leader of the Labour Party, to stand up for Scotland's interests?

    Yes: 23%
    No: 61%
    Don't know: 16%
    Net trust rating: -38

     

    Do you trust DAVID CAMERON, Prime Minister, to stand up for Scotland's interests?
    Yes: 24%
    No: 65%
    Don't know: 11%
    Net trust rating: -41

     

    Do you trust NICK CLEGG, Deputy Prime Minister, to stand up for Scotland's interests?
    Yes: 13%
    No: 71%
    Don't know: 16%
    Net trust rating: -58

     

     

    Looking good for Nicola to take over.

     

    Dear, dear Ed. Down there with Dave.

     

    Seems Scottish Labour retaining some trust from the faithful, but not UK Labour. Bodes well for May 15 as a vote there is a vote for Ed / UK Labour, not Scottish Labour.

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    Completely unrelated.

    As Skifreak pointed out, that was entirely my point. The opportunistic reading of economic data was shocking over the course of the referendum.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    To be fair, some did get the SNP win in the final month. They were also closer than a lot of the nationalists in the referendum.

     

    I was saying that we were wrong...they were right :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    I'm concerned at the infatuation with polls though it's good to see the SNP on the up. I am more interested in how we can strengthen the economic case for and indy Scotland and how we can overcome London media bias. STV are getting far too cosy with the Daily Record (MGN) for my liking.

     

    We need a Spitting Image Scotland style or a TWTWTW as a counterweight. Where is the voice of our own talent?

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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I'm concerned at the infatuation with polls though it's good to see the SNP on the up. I am more interested in how we can strengthen the economic case for and indy Scotland and how we can overcome London media bias. STV are getting far too cosy with the Daily Record (MGN) for my liking.

     

    We need a Spitting Image Scotland style or a TWTWTW as a counterweight. Where is the voice of our own talent?

     

    Unfortunately the only way to quantify voting intention is with polls.

     

    Personally though i only put stock in the ICM as a Westminster pollster.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Unfortunately the only way to quantify voting intention is with polls.

     

    Personally though i only put stock in the ICM as a Westminster pollster.

    OK, polls can be  interesting but not to the point of obsession.

     

    For Scotland to move forward we need to have viable alternative policies. Should we have a completely indy Scots Pound, should we have our own defence or be part of NATO, What would be our real (as opposed to imagined) relationship with the EU, Commonwealth and rUK. Will we have an elected second chamber, where do we stand on a written constitution and Bill of Rights. Will we create a purely Scottish (Central) bank?

     

    These are important and if not addressed imaginatively and thoroughly then we will be put through the Westminster shredder again. Indy is a long term strategy to improve Scotland's lot and to be successful we have to have working alternatives to the dross served as fine fare from the Parochial Village.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    I just put SS's re-weighted poll numbers into Electoral Calculus and got even more dramatic numbers out:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=17.1&LAB=25.6&LIB=3.8&NAT=42.9&region=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted

    SNP 46MPs (+40 seats)Lab 11MPs (-30 seats)Con  2MPs (+1 seat D&G from Labour)LD   0MPs (-11 seats)
    It's virtually unthinkable that Charles Kennedy and Alistair Carmichael would lose their seats, they will be the two Lib Dems in the numbers SS gives above.

    Now if you put the latest YouGov into Electoral Calculus for the whole UK and include UKIP you get Labour short of a majority by 10:

    Lab 316 seatsCon 296 seatsLD   11 seats
    However EC at the UK level doesn't account for the SNP - thus Labour's talked about potential advantage due to fewer votes required per seat may well be nullified by a swing to the SNP in Scotland, 5% swing only 3 seats fall, 8% swing potentially 19 seats could fall.

    If we take the perhaps rather extreme outcome at the top of this post for Scotland on SS's latest figures for weighting the Panelbase poll to 2011 instead of 210 and mash it with the UK figures, Labour loses 36 seats and the Lib Dems 3. You thus end up with:

    326 seats required for overall majority:Con 296 seatsLab 280 seatsSNP  46 seatsLD    8 seats
    A majority coalition UK government could only be formed with the Scottish National Party involved, unless you had a Labour/Tory government. Cue constitutional crises.

    The numbers probably wont be that dramatic, but the potential for a big loss of Labour MPs in Scotland is very definitely there, certainly interesting times.

     

     

    Yeah, I doubt the LDs would go to 0 seats, but effectively on the levels they're polling here there almost aren't enough votes for Kennedy to hold on and also to get more than a derisory share of the vote in more than a couple of other seats. Carmichael should be safe, unless we can find a popular independent type to run against him (former Labour man Jonathan Wills came out for Yes I believe, and he's pretty well known in Shetland at least, so if he ran as an independent I doubt the SNP would put anyone up against him). Even then, his marjority is greater than 50%, so it'd be pretty tough for anyone to beat him even if they could take a lot off the majority. Kennedy will likely survive on a personal vote but the rest look in trouble - Ming's stepping down means that there's even a fair chance the SNP could take NE Fife, while the tories and the SNP both have a shot at taking out Sir Robert Smith in West Aberdeenshire.

    Interesting aside to the above numbers, but the surviving 11 SLAB MPs in those figures include the most pro-Union and ardent nat-haters like Willie Bain, Ian Davidson, Margaret Curran, Gordon Brown, Douglas Alexander and of course Jim Murphy. Hardly likely to be encouraging a Labour SNP coalition!

     

    In reality I doubt Davidson or Curran, or maybe even Bain, would survive on those national numbers - the model, fairly enough, assumes that the swing from Labour to SNP would be evenly distributed across all constituencies, but in reality the biggest gains are likely to be in Labour's Glasgow heartlands where by-election-esque swings of 20+% can't be ruled out. Brown will likely survive, just about, although his constituency did vote Yes, wee Dougie should also just about hang on while Jim Murphy looks incredibly safe barring a massive tory revival, having managed to turn the safest tory seat in Scotland into a bastion for Labour.

    In rural Scotland the SNP is likely to gain only very modestly if at all away from heavily LD constituencies, since gaining in already SNP seatsPerthshire, Moray, Banff and Buchan and Angus would require a more or less direct swing from the tories to us, while the middle class Labour vote in Edinburgh, East Lothian, East Renfrewshire, D+G etc. seems more likely to hold up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    You can now have your say to the Smith Commission on further powers to the Scottish Parliament:

    http://www.smith-commission.scot/news/say-submitting-ideas-views-proposals-commission-03-october-2014/

    In the attached guidelines it asks those submitting their views on further powers to consider:

    What are the principles underpinning your proposals?

    For example, do the proposals seek to enhance the financial authority of the Scottish Parliament, enable the delivery of jobs or social justice, or enhance the strength of the constitutional settlement as a whole? Answers to these sorts of questions will be very important in helping us understand how the proposals fit into an overall package of further devolution. We are keen to avoid a simple “shopping list†of further powers.

    You can submit your views by email or in writing at present, website states that you will also be able to do so through the website from Monday 13th October.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Thanks skifreak! will get the thinking bunnet on!

    Edited by frogesque
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Do you trust NICK CLEGG, Deputy Prime Minister, to stand up for Scotland's interests?

    Yes: 13%

    No: 71%

    Don't know: 16%

    Net trust rating: -58

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29476172

     

    Clegg 'guarantor' for new Scottish powers
     
    Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has declared himself the "guarantor" in government over delivering more powers for the Scotland.
     
    That's actually a real headline article.
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Worth a read:

     

    http://danieldwilliam.livejournal.com/111197.html

     

    "In the wake of #IndyRef I’ve seen many suggestions that Scottish Labour are dead and that the SNP will win a majority of seats of Westminster seats in the 2015 General Election.

    I don’t think the end has come for Scottish Labour. I think Scottish Labour is in long term decline with an existential threat. Nothing that is acceptable to them will repair their situation. The end is nigh-ish.

     

    . . . ."

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    That's actually a real headline article.

    To be honest SS, given the complete distrust for the Westminster leaders to stand up for Scotland's interests, why did we still vote No to keep them in charge?

    Confused.com

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Further developments on the postal vote thing.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/police-start-probe-into-postal-vote-allegations.25509123

     

    Police start probe into postal vote allegations
     
    Prosecutors have instructed the police to launch a formal investigation into allegations that pro-Union campaigners breached electoral secrecy laws during the referendum.
     
    The development comes a week after police launched an initial assessment of complaints surrounding comments made by Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson that postal vote "tallies" were being taken in the weeks before the referendum ballot closed at 10pm on September 18.

     

     
     
    Suggests they believe they have sufficient grounds to move forward with the aim of potential prosecutions.
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    Today's Yougov...
     
    Another clear SNP lead over Labour in Scotland subsets (9 point gap) for Westminster.
     
    Tories in the lead again for the UK.
     
    Scotland - Do you think Ed Miliband is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party?
    17% Well
    75% Badly
     
    Impressive.
     
    ---
     
    Meanwhile, more from the Scotland-wide panelbase

    The powers struggle: poll reveals support for devo max
     
    TWO-THIRDS of Scots want the unionist "vow" on more powers for Holyrood to extend as far as devo max, meaning MSPs running everything except foreign affairs and defence, according to a new poll commissioned by the SNP.
     
    "The Panelbase survey found 66% of respondents wanted the commission on more powers headed by Lord Smith of Kelvin to produce devo max, with 19% opposed and 15% undecided.
     
    Devo max had majority backing from supporters of all parties, with 59% of those who voted LibDem in the 2011 Scottish election in favour, 60% of Tory voters, 62% of Labour voters, 71% of Green voters and 79% of SNP voters."
     

     

    I guess that's the SNP May 2015 manifesto sorted then.

     

    I wonder how Labour will handle the Ed is anti-devolution problem when out on the streets campaigning.

     

    ---

     

    EDIT

     

    More Yougov:

    Which of main party leaders do you trust the most?
    54% None of them
    18% Dave
    12% Ed
    6% Nick
    6% Nigel

    Edited by scottish skier
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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    More detail on individual powers:

     

    Control of all taxation raised in Scotland?:

    Yes – 71%

    No – 19%

    DK- 10%

     

    Control of all areas of government policy except for defence and foreign affairs, which is sometimes referred to as 'Devo Max'?:

    Yes – 66%

    No – 19%

    DK- 15%

     

    Control of the welfare and benefits system?

    Yes – 75%

    No - 17%

    DK – 8%

     

    Control of policy regarding the state pension?

    Yes – 65%

    No – 25%

    DK – 10%

     

    Control of oil and gas tax revenues generated in Scottish waters?

    Yes – 68%

    No – 21%

    DK – 11%

     

    Control of broadcasting policy?

    Yes – 54%

    No – 30%

    DK – 16%

     

    Guaranteed consultation by the UK Government with the Scottish Government when deciding the UK's stance in European Union negotiations?

    Yes – 72%

    No – 16%

    DK – 12%

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Latest UK Westminster Scottish subsamples:

     
    Populus:
    43% SNP
    24% Lab
    14% Con
    6% Lib
     
    Ashcroft:
    44% SNP
    30% Lab
    13% Con
    4% Lib
     
    Seems Cons are getting an inverted conference bounce in addition to Labour taking a dive.
     
    Another Labour MPs vs MSPs knives out article.
     

     

    lament.jpg

    Edited by scottish skier
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  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    The dafties will put Murphy in... 

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  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Latest UK Westminster Scottish subsamples:

     
    Populus:
    43% SNP
    24% Lab
    14% Con
    6% Lib
     
    Ashcroft:
    44% SNP
    30% Lab
    13% Con
    4% Lib
     
    Seems Cons are getting an inverted conference bounce in addition to Labour taking a dive.
     
    Another Labour MPs vs MSPs knives out article.
     

     

    lament.jpg

    Someone on another site pointed out that she looked as if she was in Syria! :laugh:

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