Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Scottish Politics 2011-2017


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    but justice ect.. back to Westminster.

    Justice and the Scottish legal system has never been under the control of the relevant 'UK' departments / UK ministers of state or Lord Chancellor etc. Scots Law has always been an independent legal jurisdiction under the control of Scottish Ministers, this can not be changed - another example of where the Treaty of Union binds the Westminster Parliament.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 30.9k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    • Scottish-Irish Skier

      8874

    • mountain shadow

      1528

    • skifreak

      1435

    • frogesque

      1306

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    While Scotland has always retained a high level of autonomy in legal matters, Westminster historically legislated over matters such as criminal law before devolution through the Scotland office.

    I think this is switch thats being referred to, but it will never, ever happen. Our legal systems are actually quite vastly different in certain areas.

    Edited by NorthernRab
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Daily Record embark upon moral crusade to cover up for their folly...

     

    post-7292-0-36240900-1412194977_thumb.pn

     

    Beyond words at this nonsense..

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Someone has seen sense possibly.

     

    https://archive.today/HT2cC

     

    Scotland exempt from Tories’ Human Rights Act axe
     
    SCOTLAND will be protected from Tory attempts to scrap the Human Rights Act in Westminster, the UK Government has conceded.
     
    In his conference speech Prime Minister David Cameron said he wanted to end the UK’s relationship with the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg and scrap the 1998 Human Rights Act replacing it with a British Bill of Rights.
     
    The move has been attacked by human rights groups, but the Scotland Office have said it would not apply north of the Border.
     
    Yet it just moves things further.
     
    'Hey, why do the Scots get no tuition fees global standard basic human rights and we don't?'
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Letter from Pete Wishart MP to the Speaker of the House of Commons - underlines how insignificant the proposed 'debate' actually is on more powers for Scotland that is due on 16th October, compared to the fanfare it was given by Gordon Brown and the MSM in the last couple of days before the referendum:

    http://petewishart.wordpress.com/2014/10/01/dear-mr-speaker-concerning-that-gordon-brown-debate/

    It is a 30minute (max) end of day adjournment debate and unless Gordon Brown specifically gives-way to allow others to speak, then this 'debate' will consist of a speech by Gordon Brown and a response from a Scotland Office minister - with no opportunity for a vote on anything. Scotland hasn't so much been sold a pig in a poke, rather outright conned by HM Government working in a coordinated manor with other UK parties and the MSM to purposefully deceive.

    When I've been out and about today, political chatter is definitely cranking upwards again and so is the sense of anger. Also today the new YES hub in Inverness getting ready to open, 3 times the size of the YES Shop it's replacing.

    post-4009-0-22036100-1412197184_thumb.jp

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Daily Record embark upon moral crusade to cover up for their folly...

     

    attachicon.gifCapture.PNG

     

    Beyond words at this nonsense..

    Said a few pages back - wonder what their circulation will come January. I note we are also getting a Record love fest on STV ads. Someone getting desperate?

    Letter from Pete Wishart MP to the Speaker of the House of Commons - underlines how insignificant the proposed 'debate' actually is on more powers for Scotland that is due on 16th October, compared to the fanfare it was given by Gordon Brown and the MSM in the last couple of days before the referendum:

    http://petewishart.wordpress.com/2014/10/01/dear-mr-speaker-concerning-that-gordon-brown-debate/

    It is a 30minute (max) end of day adjournment debate and unless Gordon Brown specifically gives-way to allow others to speak, then this 'debate' will consist of a speech by Gordon Brown and a response from a Scotland Office minister - with no opportunity for a vote on anything. Scotland hasn't so much been sold a pig in a poke, rather outright conned by HM Government working in a coordinated manor with other UK parties and the MSM to purposefully deceive.

    When I've been out and about today, political chatter is definitely cranking upwards again and so is the sense of anger. Also today the new YES hub in Inverness getting ready to open, 3 times the size of the YES Shop it's replacing.

    attachicon.gifYES-Inv-Oct14.jpg

    Time to get the "Don't blame me, I voted YES" posters and stickers out

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    When I've been out and about today, political chatter is definitely cranking upwards again and so is the sense of anger.

     

    Nemo me impune lacessit - seems apt at the moment?

     

    Edit: It will be obvious to most that I mean this metaphorically, but in case anyone's wondering, I mean this metaphorically :)

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    The FM has announced he will bring in a bill to stop councils (non SNP led) chasing voters for unpaid Poll Tax debt from 20 odd years ago.

     

    That should guarantee another few thousand votes in the General Election Scottish Labour wipeout next May.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

     

    Someone has seen sense possibly.

     

     
    Yet it just moves things further.
     
    'Hey, why do the Scots get no tuition fees global standard basic human rights and we don't?'

     

     

    As i'm sure your aware, the UK will still be a signatory to the UN declaration of human rights. It's the EU act that they want to repeal (though i disagree).

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    As i'm sure your aware, the UK will still be a signatory to the UN declaration of human rights. It's the EU act that they want to repeal (though i disagree).

    Yeh and all the case law that comes with it. Yipee!

    And why on earth not call a spade a spade? It would be the English Bill of Rights.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Yeh and all the case law that comes with it. Yipee!

    And why on earth not call a spade a spade? It would be the English Bill of Rights.

     

    My point was that it's not removing human rights, that's just scaremongering.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    My point was that it's not removing human rights, that's just scaremongering.

    It is removing ECHR case law which is as much part of human rights as the particular articles.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    My point was that it's not removing human rights, that's just scaremongering.

    The whole exercise was simply grandstanding by the Tories to look tough . They have no intention of leaving the European Court of Human Rights as that would look awful to the rest of the world and you couldn't go around preaching democracy when you've pulled out of that.

     

    So basically it was just throwing a bit of meat to the baying crowd by wanting to get rid of the Human Rights Act.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    Panelbase poll:

     

    Holyrood:

    SNP: 42%

    Labour: 27%

    Conservative: 15%

    Liberal Democrat: 5%

    UKIP: 5%

    Other: 5%

     

    Westminster:

    SNP: 34%

    Labour: 32%

    Conservative: 18%

    Liberal Democrat: 5%

    UKIP: 6%

    Other: 5%

     

    Holyrood is weighted stupidly by EU election, so likely harming SNP.

     

    Anyway averaging with the 19th September Survation poll and for Holyrood:

    46% SNP

    30% Lab

    14% Con

    4% Lib

    3% UKIP

     

    Greens have 9% on the list from Panelbase, suggesting full indy parties possibly up to 55%, +4% on 2011.

     

     

    Panelbase say they 2010 weighted for Westminster VI. Eh? Anyway, this likely to mean the SNP share is considerably higher and Lab + Lib Dem lower for Westminster.

     

    I think we can therefore conclude that the SNP are going ahead for Westminster.

     

    Even if those values are real, Labour -10% with SNP +14% on 2010 should send a shiver along the Labour benches looking for a spine to crawl up.

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    FTSE plummets as Scotland remains in the UK.

    9th September: 6843

    Closed today: 6455

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    FTSE plummets as Scotland remains in the UK.

    9th September: 6843

    Closed today: 6455

     

    Completely unrelated.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

     

    Panelbase poll:
     
    Holyrood:
    SNP: 42%
    Labour: 27%
    Conservative: 15%
    Liberal Democrat: 5%
    UKIP: 5%
    Other: 5%
     
    Westminster:
    SNP: 34%
    Labour: 32%
    Conservative: 18%
    Liberal Democrat: 5%
    UKIP: 6%
    Other: 5%
     
    Holyrood is weighted stupidly by EU election, so likely harming SNP.
     
    Anyway averaging with the 19th September Survation poll and for Holyrood:
    46% SNP
    30% Lab
    14% Con
    4% Lib
    3% UKIP
     
    Greens have 9% on the list from Panelbase, suggesting full indy parties possibly up to 55%, +4% on 2011.
     
     
    Panelbase say they 2010 weighted for Westminster VI. Eh? Anyway, this likely to mean the SNP share is considerably higher and Lab + Lib Dem lower for Westminster.
     
    I think we can therefore conclude that the SNP are going ahead for Westminster.
     
    Even if those values are real, Labour -10% with SNP +14% on 2010 should send a shiver along the Labour benches looking for a spine to crawl up.

     

     

    It's a strange one as panelbase were the ones who found that large numbers of people misremember voting SNP in 2010 when they actually told them at the time (accurately) that they voted Labour. It does look as though it was weighted to what they recall voting rather than what they actually voted, or to what the recall sample was, so a fair chance the real figures are much better. We'll certainly be hoping to capitalise on the large number of first time voters in working class areas who got engaged in politics through the referendum, and if we can get them to turn out disproportionately for us (our ~8x more activists than Labour will come in handy as normal elections are far more dependent on GOTV than the referendum) while the apolitical part of the 'silent majority' stays home then we could easily end up with a vote share in the mid 40s. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Do we dare doubt the pollsters after the last time?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     

    Panelbase say they 2010 weighted for Westminster VI. Eh? Anyway, this likely to mean the SNP share is considerably higher and Lab + Lib Dem lower for Westminster.
     

     

    As expected, total dog's breakfast of a 2010 weighting from panelbase.

    Unweighted base 2011 vote:

    42% SNP

    31% Lab

    14% Con

    8% Lib

    4% Green

    2% Other

    So not far off at all with very little 2011 weighting required. Sample looks fairly representative.

    How the same sample says it voted in 2010:

    17% Con

    31% Lab

    12% Lib

    36% SNP

    2% UKIP

    2% Other

    Aye, so that's right. I remember that stunning SNP win vividly; a precursor to 2011.

    Dear, dear panelbase. Only people being honest are Tories + UKIP etc. You've a crap load of tactical SNP voters in there that voted Labour or Lib to stop the Tories but are either forgetting that, confusing with 2011 or are ashamed to admit it.

    Of course the result is huge SNP respondent down-weighting etc and as a result, a small SNP lead for Westminster VI. Likely reality without this stupidity is a 10 point+ lead for the SNP.

     

    EU weighting a pigs ear too, which doesn't help SNP.

    Come on panelbase, pick the most recent important general election (2011) in Scotland and stick with that; you are starting to look silly. The pollsters that did that for the iref came closest.

     

    EDIT. Just noted your post Lomond. The above explains the low SNP in the Westminster part of panelbase. 36(+16)% SNP in 2010? 31(-11)% Lab, 12(-7)% Lib? LOL.

    Edited by scottish skier
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Do we dare doubt the pollsters after the last time?

    It's much easier, in theory at least, to model a GE or Holyrood turnout accurately than an 80+% one where large numbers of 'unlikely' voters turn out to vote. Still, it is possible that turnout will be up on normal (though still significantly lower than the referendum) which might boost whoever's supporters are turning out.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    EDIT. Just noted your post Lomond. The above explains the low SNP in the Westminster part of panelbase. 36(+16)% SNP in 2010? 31(-11)% Lab, 12(-7)% Lib? LOL.

     

    The demographically weighted sample prior to 2011 past vote weighting said they voted like this in 2011 V#1:

    42(-3)% SNP

    31(-1)% Lab

    14(nc)% Con

    8(nc)% Lib

    4(+4)% Green

    2% Other

    Said this for 2015:

    17.1% Con

    25.6% Lab

    3.8% Lib

    42.9% SNP

    6.7% UKIP

    3.8% Other

     

    Before ridiculous 2010 weighting applied.

     

    Suggests SNP mid 40's, Lab mid 20's. Not to unlike some recent yougov sub samples.

     

    Prof C and the polling co's have slaughtered 2010 weighting as SGP discusses:

     

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/pondering-panelbase-puzzler.html

     

    ---

     

    EDIT

     

    Above would yield in terms of Scottish MPs:

     

    45(+39) SNP

    10 (-31) Lab
    2 (-9) Lib
    2 (+1) Con
     
    That would be entertaining. 
     
    Under FPTP, if Labour slipped below 30% (their core devotees were 26% based on 2011 regional) and SNP went above 40%, you are looking at all round slaughter of unionist parties. Only the Tories are likely to survive on 1 MP with a very outside chance of gaining at the expense of Labour or the libs in another seat with low SNP such as in the Borders.
    Edited by scottish skier
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Do we dare doubt the pollsters after the last time?

     

    To be fair, some did get the SNP win in the final month. They were also closer than a lot of the nationalists in the referendum.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Suggests SNP mid 40's, Lab mid 20's. Not to unlike some recent yougov sub samples.

     

     

    I know it isn't as simple as this but it's interesting that the Indy Ref Yes vote was 45% and the SNP are likely to have support in the mid 40s. Maybe a suggestion that those that voted Yes will mainly vote SNP, with the remaining 55% or thereabouts split between the other parties?

     

    As interesting as the figures at the moment suggest, I'm not going to get over excited about them unless they are still showing something similar in 7-8mths time.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

     

    EDIT

     

    Above would yield in terms of Scottish MPs:

     

    45(+39) SNP

    10 (-31) Lab
    2 (-9) Lib
    2 (+1) Con
     
    That would be entertaining. 
     
    .

     

    Great post as ever SS.

     

    Is there a website you know of where you can play around the various percentage vote/swings and see what constuencies change hand? I can't seem to find one.

     

    Thanks

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Week Ahead: Bimbling lows keeping the weather unsettled, showery and cool

      Low pressure is going to keep doing its thing during the upcoming week, rolling in from the Atlantic, then hanging around to bring days of sunshine and showers with occasional longer spells of rain. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-16 06:49:50 Valid: 16/05/2021 0600 - 17/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 16TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-15 09:37:16 Valid: 15/05/2021 0600 - 16/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 15TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...