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Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Christ can she not smile even at this point? She seems to have been giving Salmond a bit of a testing but not exactly charismatic?

    In my ward (Black Isle) we've got the same four councillors as we had before - 1 SNP, 1 LD, 2 'independents'. The green candidate came the closest yet to breaking in on transferred votes; turnout was down about 20% I think. What puzzled me is how so many people appeared only to have marked 1, 2, 3 & 4 on their papers. I think more needs to be done on explaining this byzantine system.

    Yes, the BBC are celebrating wining (holding) Glasgow big style – the champagne corks must have been flying at Pacific Quay last night. No ‘SNP win Angus, SNP wind Dundee, SNP make big gains in Glasgow’ headlines, just red rosettes aplenty. You’d think Lamont, as leader of the BBC Party in Scotland, could crack a smile at least - a face like a bag ae spanners...

    Don’t ask me to explain STV! That’s the voting system, not our considerably less impartial independent broadcaster.

    Basically STV is a good attempt at PR while keeping local candidates elected in terms of an individual, rather than by party. A number of candidates will be elected from each ward based on securing a pre-set quota of votes. This should give a council where councillors represent very closely the share of votes cast. If you voted 1. Bob, 2. Jean and 3. Hamish, then your voted would be counted like so..

    Votes are counted randomly for each ward, with each going to the appropriate candidates. If your vote for Bob is counted before Bob reaches his quota (i.e. given to him), then that’s it used. If it is not, and Bob reaches his quota before your vote is counted, then when your ballot paper is counted, Jean would get your vote if she’s not reached her quota and so on. You can number as few or as many as you like and really you should of course number those you would actually favour being elected only.

    I just used my 1. SNP and 2. Independent votes as after that I had the Tories/Libs/Lab on offer in addition to a candidate from the Borders Party. I looked into them and was considering giving them my 3. However, the candidate in my ward seemed a tad to nimby, and was ranting against the Borders railway. I support bringing the railway back as the Borders suffered terribly when the textiles industry declined (woollen goods imported cheaply), particularly as the Beeching cuts had left it one of the most isolated (but quite populated) areas in Scotland in terms of distance to a railway connection (lines running down the west and east coasts but a huge gap in the form of the borders region between them). The A7 is also a death trap and if commuters move from it onto the railway to get to Edinburgh it will be better for all.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    There are two worlds in the Scottish media - the real one and the BBC fantasy one.

    In the real one, the SNP 'won' the election. In the BBC one, Labour won.

    Look, there are even different election results in the BBC world compared to everywhere else.....

    Real SNP gains = 61

    BBC SNP gains = 57

    Real Labour gains = 46

    BBC Labour gains = 58

    To achieve this, what you do is deselect members of your party (in this case the BBC Scotland party) in the weeks ahead of the election making them resign their position, then when people vote for the same party they did last time, replacing the deselected candidate with the new one, you count these as gains. Cool huh!

    EDIT and oh for the missing SNP gains in BBC Labour World.... What you do here is when a Labour councillor defects to the SNP ahead of the election, stands in the election on a new SNP ticket, takes the seat whereby increasing the number of SNP councillors in a ward based on the will of the electorate, this is not regarded as an SNP gain....simples.

    post-9421-0-26626300-1336295965_thumb.pn

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Agreed. Anyone wonder why we have a BBC state run broadcaster should read this: http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-politics/4911-questions-over-bbc-scotlands-election-figure-claims.

    In a democracy we have a right to unbiased and impartial reporting....no longer it seems!

    We need political reform in the UK as it is unaccountable and open to corruption....no wonder the public don't vote, we don't trust politicians.

    A start would be for an elected MP, council or authoritive figure be accountable to the people whom elected them. So if they are convicted of a criminal offence, their electorat would be able to make a decision on wether they stay in office, instead of the party. This line could be extended to also include deliberately lieing to the electorat.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Now that we have the first preference results for the Scottish elections we can have a wee look see about what they tell us....

    As noted ahead of the council elections, from what poll data I have, I see nothing suggests the SNP are not still riding high nationally, just as they were in May 11 to the last Scotland-wide proper polls (MORI) in Jan/Feb of this year (also in 2007-9 polls incidentally before a brief panic shift to Labour when the Tories returned to Westminster). My analyses of subsets I posted before shows they are doing well for UKGE intention; the Holyrood vote shares having apparently transferred to UKGE to all intents and purposes as far as I can see.

    So, for the council elections…. In May 11, the SNP gote 45.4% of first preference votes, yet they only got 32.3% of first preference votes in the 2012 council elections and it appeared Labour made gains - at least they got a good few extra councillors. We've of course heard about this being a Labour surge/comeback etc (even though the SNP did a lot better than them). Don’t be fooled!

    If we compare the constituency and first preference results for the Holyrood and Council elections (attached) we can see what really happened, at least in terms of overall net shifts.

    The first thing we see is Labour actually got a lower share of first preference votes than in May 11, as did the Tories and the Libs. However, losses were not big; really it was a repeat of May 11 with a further erosion of unionist vote shares. Labour gained councillors yes, but this was from the Lib Dems (and possibly the Tories) who did not turn to the SNP and a product of the STV system which is close to PR, but not perfect PR. We can see the ‘others’ did quite well – these being mainly the Greens and the SSP. So why did the SNP not get 45% odd then? Well, in net terms, the ‘missing’ 13.1% SNP share went to independents. So, it’s not missing really, it’s still there. It’s just that in rural areas in the north particularly (e.g. Highland, Moray, Comhairle Nan Eilean Siar, Argyll and Bute), people have traditionally voted strongly for independent candidates at council level rather than parties. These people then voted SNP or Liberal at national level, with most of them now SNP. Take Comhairle Nan Eilean Siar: Holyrood 2011 SNP = 65%, Council 2012 = 68% independent… These voters saw no reason to stop voting for independents at council level, just as the always have done, even though they now vote SNP for SGE/UKGE.

    Of course this all in net terms and there will be some Labour voters that voted for independents, but then there will have been some Labour voters that turned to the SNP etc etc… However, it is the net combined effect that matters and the graph illustrates this neatly. Our 44-45% min for the SNP at national level is still there from all the evidence (including my UK poll subset monitoring).

    So has a wheel fallen off the SNP bandwagon? Not at all. However, I don't mind the unionists thinking that if they like as one should ‘never interrupt the enemy when they are in the process of making a mistake’.

    Touché Prof Curtis, touché…

    EDIT.

    The secret to being elected in Scotland if you are of centre-right leanings. Get yourself ejected from the Conservative and Unionist Party for saying favourable things about the SNP and independence then stand as an indpendent:

    Brian Monteith: Prime example of why the Tories must change

    http://www.scotsman....hange-1-2279075

    And Peter de Vink will join one green to form a coalition with the SNP to end 80 odd years of Labour control in midlothian:

    http://newsnetscotla...e-in-midlothian

    The strongly liberal left joining with the conservative centre right on either side of the social democratic centrist/modest left. Now that's proper politics.

    Also, a good article from Hassan on Labour's victory in Glasgow and how it is not quite the stunning victory (actually a hold with one less councillor) that the BBC has pretended it to be.

    The Story the Media Should Have Told You About Glasgow

    http://www.gerryhass...-about-glasgow/

    EDIT2. Just came across the below map. Council wards (seats) in Scotland represented by at least one SNP councillor compared to the same for Labour etc. A picture speaks a thousand words as they say... There's a reason they're the national party of Scotland - their support comes from everywhere and from all walks of life.

    --------------

    EDIT again. Sorry, but this is classic:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-council-elections-ruth-davidson-appeals-to-lib-dem-voters-to-switch-to-tories-1-2279955

    Scottish council elections: Ruth Davidson appeals to Lib Dem voters to switch to Tories

    The Tory leader added: “My message to moderate, non-socialist, Liberal Democrats is that there is a home for you with the Scottish Conservatives.

    Posted Image

    Aye, the libs have learned well the benefits of being Tory. Jesus wept - what a bunch of numpties the Scots Con&Unionists are. Ruth needs to listen to Murdo and Peter, not Call me Dave.

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    post-9421-0-00736700-1336416437_thumb.jp

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    And Scotland’s capital will now be governed by a historic coalition between Labour and the SNP. Hugely symbolic and I wish it well, for the moment the Labour party start working with the SNP instead of opposing for oppositions sake, is the moment the union (in its current form at least) comes to an end.

    At the moment, the Labour party, in not supporting Devo Max / independence is not reflecting the will of its voters. At least 65% support Devo maxx and a good third of them independence even if Devo Maxx is on offer. If there is only one question on the ballot, it is Labour voters that will carry the yes vote.

    Like this gent; ex-chairman of the Scottish Labour party.

    Scottish independence: I’ll back independence if there’s no second question, says Labour figure

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-independence-i-ll-back-independence-if-there-s-no-second-question-says-labour-figure-1-2280472

    FORMER Scottish Labour chairman Bob Thomson has said he will vote for independence if there is no second question on devo-max or home rule in the referendum .

    Mr Thomson said if he was “pushed into a corner†in a straight yes-no question on whether Scotland should remain in the UK, he would back independence, warning others in the Labour and trade union movement would do the same.

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    Posted
  • Location: New York City
  • Location: New York City

    Westminster committee criticises referendum question

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-17982560

    The MPs said the wording suggested by the Scottish government is "biased".

    The chairman of the committee, Ian Davidson MP, said: "We cannot have a contest in which separatists are both player and referee."

    Because calling people separatists isn't biased, form the man who thinks the SNP are are "neo-nazis" and threatens to give people "a doing."

    The headline should be "The biased Westminster committee acuses the Scottish Government of being biased."

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Westminster committee criticises referendum question

    http://www.bbc.co.uk...litics-17982560

    Because calling people separatists isn't biased, form the man who thinks the SNP are are "neo-nazis" and threatens to give people "a doing."

    The headline should be "The biased Westminster committee acuses the Scottish Government of being biased."

    Yes, I imagine the entire Scottish electorate will have no idea whether they are going to vote yes or no, what they are voting for, and will be standing in polling booths across the country scratching their heads the enourmously complex question placed before them. What is the answer supposed to be? Hmmm, is it a trick question? Can I phone a friend? I mean they'll have only had 2 devolution referenda to which they voted yes on both occasions, and 15 years of devolution with the last 7 of these being under a nationalist government which does not exactly keep its prime goal under wraps. Hardly time decide aye or naw at all really...

    On the BBC Radio Labour Party the morn (call Kaye), an 'impartial' correspondent was brought on which - to the horror of Kaye and co - pointed out that there were no SNP MPs on the committee but there were 4 Tories MPs from England to compliment the 4 Labour MPs. He did not say 'biased' but made it clear the entire committee was very pro-union. Any committee credibility lost in an instant, although Davidson waffled on regardless.

    3,000 responses to the Westminster consultation

    16,000 and growing to the Holyrood one

    That's about 16% to Westminster. Maybe co-incidence, but that was the % of Scots who trusted Westminster to act in Scotland's interests 'all or most of the time' in the last country-wide SSAS survey.

    Really, this whole thing smacks of desperation.

    --------------------------------------------------------

    Och this is brilliant....

    https://careers.bbc.co.uk/fe/tpl_bbc01.asp?s=QzByEJgTrIUzWwIro&jobid=43397,6952988956&key=61341156&c=415915140212&pagestamp=serftkdwubeijdwlpw

    BBC Careers. Job Advert.

    Political Analyst, Analysis & Research

    ...BBC News requires a political analyst for its Political Research Unit. You will be required to have experience of and expertise in the workings of the Labour Party...

    ....You'll be required to have expertise in the workings of the Labour Party. You'll have a comprehensive knowledge of the Labour Party and a good awareness of constitutional affairs....

    LOL.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Bye bye...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-18037889

    Borders council administration sees SNP replace Tories

    The SNP has replaced the Conservatives in a grouping with independents and Lib Dems to run Scottish Borders Council.

    SNP gained in my ward which is Tory/Lab/Lib free. Nice.

    Quite a few Tory-Lab coalitions forming in some councils even where the Tory vote went down and the SNP got the largest vote share/number of councillors. Did Labour not pay attention to what happened to the Lib Dems re Tory coalitions? Labour - party before people. Hell, even seems they made promises to the Orange Order in Glasgow to review marching restrictions in return for a few votes. Vote Labour - get Tory with good splash of bigotry...

    http://www.stirlingo...51226-30941982/

    http://www.heraldsco...flawed.17535913

    Labour GCC brought in rules to control orange marches, boasted about their success, then they need to change them following discussions with the OO ahead of a crucial election. I'm disgusted - all for maybe a few hundred bigot votes.

    And I thought Labour were the only party that can save us from the Tories. The SNP are centre (just a tad left) so can make alliances with the right and the left as seems fair - that's what the centre is supposed to do. But Scottish Labour are the left no? Oh I forgot -they are centre-right so perfect tory partners.

    Sad truth is Labour hate the SNP as the SNP are everything Labour claim to be but are not....

    At least in Edinburgh Labour are being sensible and working with the SNP to run ECC.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Bye bye...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-18037889

    Borders council administration sees SNP replace Tories

    The SNP has replaced the Conservatives in a grouping with independents and Lib Dems to run Scottish Borders Council.

    SNP gained in my ward which is Tory/Lab/Lib free. Nice.

    Quite a few Tory-Lab coalitions forming in some councils even where the Tory vote went down and the SNP got the largest vote share/number of councillors. Did Labour not pay attention to what happened to the Lib Dems re Tory coalitions? Labour - party before people. Hell, even seems they made promises to the Orange Order in Glasgow to review marching restrictions in return for a few votes. Vote Labour - get Tory with good splash of bigotry...

    http://www.stirlingo...51226-30941982/

    http://www.heraldsco...flawed.17535913

    Labour GCC brought in rules to control orange marches, boasted about their success, then they need to change them following discussions with the OO ahead of a crucial election. I'm disgusted - all for maybe a few hundred bigot votes.

    And I thought Labour were the only party that can save us from the Tories. The SNP are centre (just a tad left) so can make alliances with the right and the left as seems fair - that's what the centre is supposed to do. But Scottish Labour are the left no? Oh I forgot -they are centre-right so perfect tory partners.

    Sad truth is Labour hate the SNP as the SNP are everything Labour claim to be but are not....

    At least in Edinburgh Labour are being sensible and working with the SNP to run ECC.

    The number of Labour-tory alliances is pretty sickening: East Dunbartonshire, Aberdeen city, East Lothian, even Stirling, where the SNP were the largest party. The irony of it of course is that the only reason labour were strong enough to form this was because of gains they made against Lib Dem councillors for going into coalition at Westminster with the tories! I don't believe the SNP and tories are in any administrations together but given SLAB's constant reference to the SNP as 'tartan tories' for voting Callaghan's government down in '79 after the 40% rule imposition then you'd expect us to be the more likely to deal with them. The orange order thing is particularly disgusting and I do wonder what Jim Murphy for example thinks of that. It's sad to think that, in the west of Scotland at least, such bigotry is still given a voice even at a relatively high political level.

    One good thing about Labour running councils with the Conservatives is that voters will once again be reminded of quite why they so decisively rejected them in May last year. The tories will undoubtedly attempt to cut services and delay social house building further while going beyond the freeze, and on past experience Labour appear quite willing to go along with them: in Stirling Council the tories and Labour united at the last budget to force through a council tax cut in spite of the fact that at a national level Labour continued to claim that the freeze wasn't being properly funded.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The number of Labour-tory alliances is pretty sickening: East Dunbartonshire, Aberdeen city, East Lothian, even Stirling, where the SNP were the largest party....

    This had to happen at some point I suppose - a grand unionist coalition against the SNP/independence. Now that the council elections are over I guess they've figured this is the right time.

    Here's how things are shaping up:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk...litics-17989573

    Seeing those Lab-Con(+/-Lib) unionist coalitions is quite something. A very bad move for Labour - I'm quite astounded they're that stupid after watching what happened to the lib dems for doing the same. This shall very likely be Labour's ultimate undoing and a big factor in the yes vote come 2014. Scottish Labour voters are not New Labour soft Tory swing voters - Scots Labour voters hate the Tories. By that I mean really hate; the Labour vote lies in the old coal mining areas etc decimated by Thatcher.

    I suspect this order has come from London.

    This one too probably:

    http://www.telegraph...youngsters.html

    Johann Lamont: 'Free' university education in Scotland is holding back youngsters

    Alex Salmond’s flagship policy of a ‘free’ university education for all Scottish students is holding back some of the country’s most talented youngsters, the Labour leader will argue today.

    So is Lamont going to backtrack on no higher education tuition fees for Scots? Would match up with the centre-right policies of Milliband and co in the fine Blairite tradition (and Scottish Labour only adopted the policy to try and outmatch the SNP). A big mistake for Labour if that's the plan; think of all those 16-17 year olds who are going to be voting in the referedum. Seems Labour want to put WMDs ahead of their education...

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  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE
  • Weather Preferences: ALL WEATHER, NOT THE PETTY POLITICS OF MODS IN THIS SITE
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE

    There will be a free space for Scotland in the Euro very soon once Greece pulls out! LOL

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    There will be a free space for Scotland in the Euro very soon once Greece pulls out! LOL

    Ha ha - I think we'll keep that Scots pound in our pocket for now thanks! I think any future Scottish Government would have a job on its hands convincing people to vote for the Euro in a referendum...

    -----------------------------

    Unrelated, but this is good to hear:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics-news/2012/05/14/snp-promise-to-save-regimental-names-if-scotland-becomes-independent-86908-23859068/

    SNP promise to save regimental names if Scotland becomes independent

    THE SNP have promised they would keep the historic Scottish regiments if they ruled an independent Scotland.

    SNP defence spokesman Angus Robertson said that the party would reverse plans to scrap regimental names and axe at least one battalion.

    Under proposals from Defence Secretary Philip Hammond, the Black Watch, 3rd Battalion the Royal ­Regiment of Scotland, would become just 3 SCOTS and the Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders would be named 5 SCOTS.

    Robertson said: “The scrapping of the regimental names would be the ultimate betrayal of Scotland’s historic units.

    “It would also completely fly in the face of promises by the Tories when they were in opposition that they would reinstate Scottish Army units. With independence, we will keep the current unit names and tradition.

    “Should the worst happen and these units be scrapped by the Tories, an SNP Government in an independent Scotland will reinstate them as part of a modern, properly equipped, conventional ­Scottish defence force.â€

    A real kick in the teeth for Scots soldiers if the Tories do go back on previous promises and scrap their units/names.

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  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE
  • Weather Preferences: ALL WEATHER, NOT THE PETTY POLITICS OF MODS IN THIS SITE
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE

    I guess its simply a question for whats right for the Scottish people. But more importantly, what the men and women who served and risked their own lives would want.

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    Yes I agree the names give a sense of identity and pride in a regiment especially if that name is going back a number of centuries with a proud history.

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Yes I agree the names give a sense of identity and pride in a regiment especially if that name is going back a number of centuries with a proud history.

    Yes, in fact historically the British army was something of a oddity in that it was one area of British society where all things Scottish was actively encouraged. Highland dress and the carrying of weapons was actually banned in Scotland for a while (following the jacobite rebellion) but then the British army discovered if they encouraged Scots that they could join up and be Scottish - kilts, claymores, flags, marching to the pipes etc - this drew in recruits and was very beneficial to them as a fighting force.

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    What a sick, pathetic little man. And that’s Dave ‘Die, Die, Die!’ Cameron, not Megrahi.

    http://www.heraldsco...ameron.17581184

    Megrahi survival is insult to families, says Cameron

    So Dave, would it wet your whistle to withdraw his medicine and watch him die? Or are you just an arrogant, cowardly wee posh boy without a single moral fibre in you? I believe it’s the latter. You do not represent my country - we shall be saying goodbye soon. Thanks for the additional yes votes; keep it up. At least there’s one thing you are useful for. How’s Moussa Koussa by the way?

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    EDIT. Peter de Vink, Lord Fraser....

    http://www.thecourie...cotland-go.html

    'Something of an inevitability' — Tayside Conservative peer claims it is time 'to let Scotland go'

    A distinguished Conservative peer from Tayside has made the startling claim that Scottish independence is ''inevitable''.

    They're starting to come out of the closet/test the water. Will be drips at first, then a trickle, then a torrent....

    Lord Fraser, like Peter de Vink, understands Scotland, unlike Dave who seems to think - from his comments on Megrahi - that we all read the Daily Mail too. See the version that graces news stands in England Dave? It's not sold up here - no real market for right-wing nonsense north of the border. We have a modest-selling mild version which does not resemble its southern sister paper particularly. Hence his attempts to appeal to the darker side of human nature for political gain will not have the effect he desires. Instead, the bulk of people will react as I did - with disgust.

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I’ve been asked in the past about the demographics of independence.

    Looking into this I was surprised to find that support for the SNP is really unchanged across the social spectrum – that’s quite something. In the last MORI poll within error the support for the SNP is the same in a council estate as it is in Morningside. A national party? It seems so…

    Anyway back to independence… In terms of wealth, support is strongest among the poor/working class and weakest among the wealthy (the wealthy vote SNP for competence...). Bit of a headache that for Labour – their traditional voters support independence. In fact that is probably where the SNP have been stealing voters from them in a big way.

    Age is quite interesting..

    From the ages of 25-60, the Yes vote generally outweighs the No vote by a good margin. Only the 18-24 and over 65 groups are saying No for now. We must look at these separately as the causes of this are quite different.

    Support is actually highest in the 55-64 group, yet plunges suddenly in the over 65 group. Reason? Hmmm, well it can’t be directly about worries over pensions etc as those who would be worried about this most would be those struggling to get by. However, they are strongly supportive as we have seen based on social glass/wealth democraphics. So what is it? Well, these people remember the war and its immediate aftermath. They remember the post-war consensus when support for the union was at its peak. The baby boomers do not; they remember the swinging 60’s and flower power. They grew up watching an empire in decline, with no memories of its peak and it/the unity two WW’s brought. They were the ones that voted Yes in 1979, were betrayed by Labour then got hammered by Thatcher for having the audacity to vote for devolution. They are my parents. That would be my conclusion.

    So what about the 18-24’s? The SNP want to reduce the voting age to 16 for the referendum. Why we might ask why if this group are saying No at the moment? Well, they’re not saying No actually; they are just Unsure. As can be seen, there is a lovely correlation between age and Unsure %’s; the older the age group the less Unsure’s we see.

    At this point it is worth remembering that Unsure does not equal No. I know unionists like to group these with No, but that is incorrect. Unsure’s like the idea of independence but are unsure about what it would mean. If you don’t like the idea, you say No. I’d imagine the young are not thinking too much about it – politics is sadly something the young normally don’t take much of an interest in…. The SNP want to target this group because if those Unsures can be convinced of the benefits of independence they will become Yes’s, go out and vote and it will be a done deal. After all, they will be the independence generation. The over 65’s are set in their ways are not for turning.

    As I’ve mentioned before, my prediction is for ~62.5% Yes, as per Y-Y in 1997. The reasons for this are numerous, but based on just the Y/N poll data you can see why. Add the unsure’s to the Yes and you get something like this value as a running average. In the age demographics you can see this clearly; the 18-60 groups Yes+Unsures give this value clearly across the spectrum. Of course some Unsures may vote No, but then some current No’s will vote yes. Based on polls going back to 1998, the hardcore No is at most 35%. The highest Yes shares polled was back in 1998 at ~55%. Combine these two and you get 61%.

    The Devo max thing is the clincher on this; 70% want devo max minimum and if that’s not on the 40-45% Yes’s will join a majority of Unsures but want devo max’s to give the comfortably over 60% majority. The latest status quo is 24% and the Yes to independence even if devo max is on the ballot is 39%. If we consider these as the hardcore, then that’s 62% Yes once again….

    I could bring up all sorts of other examples such as government approval rating but no need. My tip would be to visit the Bookies and see what odds they’ll give you on a 60-65% yes vote in the referendum. You should make a good few bob if you get in now. Closer to the time, as the Unsure’s continue to turn to Yes as they have been, the odds will be much less favourable….

    Anyhoo, on a related topic but probably more interesting than my waffling about poll stats - here’s Scotland’s FM being interviewed on the US Late Late Show the other night (on CBS just after the Late Show with David Letterman).

    http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwKSxjiwZps

    ----------------------------------------------------------------

    EDIT. Author Irvine Welsh on the independence issue. He hits the nail on the head just perfectly in his own way. No need to get dressed up for the occasion; didn't add much to the opposition anyway.

    post-9421-0-11556300-1337198318_thumb.pn

    Edited by scottish skier
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  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE
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    In the general scheme of things, this Scotish debate doesnt even register does it? I mean, Europe is about to get smashed to bits and it was only last year that Salmond was talking about leaving the UK and joining the Euro club!

    So anything he has to say about anything is rather unimportant now isnt it?

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    So anything he has to say about anything is rather unimportant now isnt it?

    To people outside Scotland yes - I mean why should it really matter if they don't live here. Hence I keep thoughts/news on the issue primarily confined to the Scottish politics thread rather than the UK politics one. That way the ~8.4% (presumably) of netweather users who are Scots and have an interest in politics can chat away to their hearts content without boring everyone else.

    Obviously to those living in Scotland it is of some importance their country is governed in the future. Whatever happens in Europe is rather irrelevant to the independence debate. I mean the world is not going to vanish; life will go on, Scotland will still need a government; the choice is whether to govern ourselves like a normal country or have the neighbours do that. I would imagine you'd advocate independence/standing on your own two feet/looking after your own finances as opposed to 'dependence' would you not? I've kind of been surprised by the fact that the Tories have been so supportive of Scottish 'dependence' to date. UKIP are the same; 'independence' for the UK but 'dependence' for Scotland. Seems they have no idea what their own principles are.

    In terms of Scotland's future relationship with Europe - I'm actually a fan of Norway (it is very similar to Scotland in terms of political thinking and economy) and it's not even in the EU. I would like to be able to vote on such matters; the UK government does not offer me such choices.

    And I'm not sure why you focus on Alex Salmond as the MSM do. He's just the current First Minister. There are supporters on independence amongst all the parties (Tories are finally coming out now. e.g. Peter de Vink) and their voters. It's not really about the SNP at all; they will not decide the constitutional future of Scotland - the people of Scotland will at the ballot box. The SNP may not even form the first new government of an independent Scotland, although chances are they will as the Tories, Libs and Labour have no manifesto for that - quite embarrasingly unprepared really. You'd think they would put some plans together for that outcome to give the voters at least an idea.

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    I dont think the voters in Scotland need any ideas. They are clever enough to say what they want when they want. I also think they are sceptical of anyone who tries too hard to push one way or the other.

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I dont think the voters in Scotland need any ideas. They are clever enough to say what they want when they want. I also think they are sceptical of anyone who tries too hard to push one way or the other.

    I would certainly hope so. It does seem that they are of an increasingly independent mind these days. The MSM in Scotland has been rabidly anti-SNP since it looked like they might form a minority government ahead of 2007 (up until then they could be ignored and treated as harmless fun). Attacks from all angles in the media - even the 'mighty' News International with its 'head in the noose if you vote SNP' Sun eadline. Scots just stopped buying newspapers (the rate of decline in sales has been twice that of the UK) and went out and voted for what they felt was best, which was the opposite of what they were being 'told' to vote by the 'establishment' (for want of a better word).

    The SNP may be riding high for now - to keep doing that they need to keep being what they are; a national party that works by listening and looking for consensus, gaining support from the poor, the rich, the more conservative, the more liberal etc. A proper centre party. If they e.g. tried to drag a future independent Scotland into the Eurozone (if it survives) without permission they'd be out on their ear. After all, we do have a PR-type system (AMS) which makes having a majority very difficult, thus power is more balanced, and of course allows e.g. a 'don't you dare drag us into XXX without a referendum Party' to make sudden a rapid gains in parliament/at local level (STV).

    With respect to the latter point, I find irony in that Scotland was given PR-type systems to stop the SNP getting a majority (e.g. on 35% of the vote). However, what instead happened was people found PR-type politics quite refreshing and a big change from the old elective dictatorship FPTP approach. In many ways that has been one of the things that has allowed the SNP to steadily grow and become accepted as a competent party when FPTP could have kept them shut out as it does the smaller parties in the UK.

    I'm not sure the Europe thing will have any real influence on the debate. While the SNP have traditionally favoured Europe and the Euro as noted, it is not about them. The question I will be asked in the booth is whether I want Scotland to make its own decisions or not, just like other countries; that and that alone. I would say Scotland is not as europhobic as England - we don't have the whole 'anti-europe' flavour daily mail type stuff in our papers - does not sell (we have Scottish Daily Mail but it's a very watered down version compared to the English one). However, that does not mean people are desperate to have Scotland run by Brussels. It will be an interesting debate come the time for sure - and of course will depend on what happens in Europe.

    Regarding the current economic crisis... One thing to remember is that Scotland started to reject new Labour the moment it got its parliament. Their vote collapsed by 13.5% in just two parliamentary terms at Holyrood (Westminster voting in Scotland is simply an anti-tory one and does not represent want Scots want) well before lots of people started questioning the sanity of Tony and Gordon and long before the finacial crisis began. In that sense outside events/Labour's handling of the economy are not really significant. Scotland just started wandering off on its own path in 1997; something that was inevitable. Irvine Welsh actually conveyed this very well in his interview - the reasons for the political union are no more. The social union remains strong however and Scots is not rejecting the UK, just wanting to quietly do things its own way. We actually don't care about being important....

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    You sound like a party political broadcast for the SNP.

    But I know you dont speak for the majority of Scots because they do care about being important in the world.

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  • Location: New York City
  • Location: New York City

    You sound like a party political broadcast for the SNP.

    But I know you dont speak for the majority of Scots because they do care about being important in the world.

    Do we? I'd rather just sink into the background, the bold and brash "important" UK brought international terrorism to Scotland, stay out of harms way and make lots of money.

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    You sound like a party political broadcast for the SNP.

    But I know you dont speak for the majority of Scots because they do care about being important in the world.

    My preferred party is irrelevant to what is happening in Scotland.

    The facts speak for Scotland - not me, as per my graphs above. 70% want fill to be all but independent (FFA/Devo max), with those ready to vote for independence (far bigger than the UK Tory vote and about the same as Labour are polling) just about the same as those who don't right now. Those in the middle like the idea but are unsure of the practicalities; hence are keen on the FFA/Devo option. Even 10% of the No vote for now want almost complete autonomy. Less than 30% want things to stay as they are. Current direction is unsures moving towards Yes. That's not an SNP broadcast, its just they way things are. If you don't believe it, fine, ignore polls and surveys of thousands of people over many years, election results to date etc. Ignore the history of the current movement which goes back at least to the 1920s. Ignore 2 devolution referenda and 3 national party election wins on the trot. I'm not sure what you are basing your theories on - as a scientist, I prefer facts and figures. The UK has run its course and will soon be at an end. It's just the way it is; the end of the empirical rise and fall. First to join (ex Wales), last to leave. The British Empire party is over and with it ends the purpose of the union. Even if a no vote narrowly scraped through, Scotland would still end up FFA/Devo max, just like the only other place an independence referedum did not quite pass; Quebec. It is all but independent anyway now.

    You've been talking some sense on other threads, so I'm not sure why you're ignoring the facts in this case. If you want to dispute my conclusions I'm happy to debate, but you'll need to provide some evidence.

    -----------------------------------

    EDIT. And it's not just a lot of Scots which share my views. I've just been chatting to the painter painting my extension at the moment. He's from Basingstoke originally - moved up around 20 years ago. He votes SNP and will be voting yes to independence. His reasons were much like my own.

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  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
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    I'm sorry Village but I'll think you'll find most Scots put Scotland first and aren't too bothered about what their standing is in the rest of the world.

    We don't want nuclear weapons that's for sure.

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