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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Got any of that statistical evidence? I'd be interested to read it. Ta! 

     

     

    It's been covered to death previously in the thread, by people who know far more about it than I do (e.g. Scottish Skier) :)

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/

     

    A little plea to everyone...reading the whole thread would help a lot of peeps on here. People seem a wee bit trigger happy today. Love ya all :) :) :)

    No surprise that it is written by somebody that is pro-independence. How do we know that what they write is not just a bunch of cobblers?

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    why don't they embed for me when I only use that bit is it because of my signature?

     

    It's cos you're on the hitlist sent out by GCHQ.

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

     

     

    It was in the link, I think :)

    Nope, it wasn't. 

    The link just says "You'd be forgiven for thinking that ICM believe this is a trivial matter, but in fact country of birth is still one of the strongest predictors of referendum vote" and then he does some "rough calculation" - if something is enough of a factor to skew a poll then it needs proper statistical analysis. You can't just apply some "rough calculation" and claim it invalidates a professionally carried-out poll by a large and well-respected polling organisation. 

    He makes it sound like a known, proven, demonstrable factor - for instance, in his "rough calculations" there's no mention of controlling for age, for occupation, for sex, all of which are known factors which DO relate to the voting intention. 

    So he needs to demonstrate that country of birth ALONE is an indicator, and that his "rough calculations" do not include any influence from the other known influences already present in the sample. 

    ​Otherwise, I'd call it bigotry… 

    It's been covered to death previously in the thread, by people who know far more about it than I do (e.g. Scottish Skier) :)

     

     

    Ahh… I just didn't quite have the strength to read 659 pages of discussion… oh well. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    No surprise that it is written by somebody that is pro-independence. How do we know that what they write is not just a bunch of cobblers?

     

    I'm not being funny but it was someone else who posted it up, I'm not going to go digging through Google for proof of what someone else said. I only piped up earlier cause BMW had thought N13 was dismissing the inclusion of English opinion in a poll, and this was not the case. I know both N13 and BMW from this thread and the Scottish weather thread, I get on with both of them well and I didn't want there to be a misunderstanding between them. That was all. If you are so desperate to know if it's a bunch of cobblers then look it up. I am sure enough of it not being cobblers that I am not going to look it up. If you can find evidence to the contrary then fair enough, I'll change my opinion to what the facts are.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    But now Spain have finally reared their head and claimed that Scotland would not be allowed to fast track into the EU and would have to accept the Euro.... presumably that means they can't fish in our waters if they aren't part of the EU?

    I did post a few days ago that AS was being a bit premature about automatic rights to join the EU and reject the Euro. I even specifically mentioned Spain but was dismissed as it being scaremongering.

    The EU itself (as well Spain) continue to say automatic entry is NOT guaranteed.

    Its highly likely to happen but AS doesn't have as much negotiating power against the EU establishment and ALL of its states as he does with Westminster.

    His task is achievable long term but he hasn't got a God given right to run roughshod over EU beauraccy.

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&ei=N5IZVPHvPKTMygPJ8oD4DA&url=http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/spain-independent-scotland-years-eu-membership&cd=5&ved=0CCsQFjAE&usg=AFQjCNE96QSkacXiTX4C3Nf4rPDoTZJa9w&sig2=jLJTMyiDvolkLPqVV8X07A

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

     

    Ahh… I just didn't quite have the strength to read 659 pages of discussion… oh well. 

     

    The link did indicate that country of birth is an indicator, but again I'm not getting into anything over something I didn't post up in the first place, I was only trying to keep the peace.

     

    As for not having time to read all the thread, honestly woman...get a move on :D :D :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Blimey, I'd better go and tell my various friends who were born in UK military bases in Germany, Cyprus, etc., that they are more likely to vote NO. It's going to come as an awfy shock to at least two of them...

     

     

    As with everything the polls apparently show, it's probably not quite as simple as 'Born outside Scotland' = 75% chance of voting No. It certainly isn't in my household where I'm the only voter born in Scotland, with the other 3 voters born in England. Of those 3 the wife is a confirmed No but the two teenagers are one definite Yes and one probable Yes. Then again the 'kids' moved to Scotland when they were 4&6 so have lived most of their life here. Maybe the length of time someone born elsewhere ahs lived here is more of a factor, or where they spent thier childhood years?

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

     I am sure enough of it not being cobblers that I am not going to look it up. If you can find evidence to the contrary then fair enough, I'll change my opinion to what the facts are.

    This is why I love the Kilted thread… :)

    Can't stop to discuss, though - got some reading to do…! ;)

    Edited by BleakMidwinter
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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    Anyone want a guess / sweep-stake on the result then? Closest wins the biggest snowfall of the winter in their back yard :p

     

    I'm going to say 55/45 for No

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    Posted
  • Location: cheltenham.
  • Weather Preferences: if its warm i want sun..if its cold i want snow.
  • Location: cheltenham.

    4' 285' 323 scotsfolk have registered to vote.

     

    after taking the trouble to do that..it'll be interesting to see how many of that number actually do vote tomorrow. and even though the polling stns are open 7am till 10pm you can guarantee some people will be zooming up in a last minute rush.

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    Posted
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport

    I'm not being funny but it was someone else who posted it up, I'm not going to go digging through Google for proof of what someone else said. I only piped up earlier cause BMW had thought N13 was dismissing the inclusion of English opinion in a poll, and this was not the case. I know both N13 and BMW from this thread and the Scottish weather thread, I get on with both of them well and I didn't want there to be a misunderstanding between them. That was all. If you are so desperate to know if it's a bunch of cobblers then look it up. I am sure enough of it not being cobblers that I am not going to look it up. If you can find evidence to the contrary then fair enough, I'll change my opinion to what the facts are.

    No not desperate to look it up, just thought that you might actually know what you were talking about was actually factual or made up but i guess it doesn't matter if it's true or not aslong as it doesn't go along with anti independence.

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    Posted
  • Location: cheltenham.
  • Weather Preferences: if its warm i want sun..if its cold i want snow.
  • Location: cheltenham.

    4' 285' 323 scotsfolk have registered to vote.

     

    after taking the trouble to do that..it'll be interesting to see how many of that number actually do vote tomorrow. and even though the polling stns are open 7am till 10pm you can guarantee some people will be zooming up in a last minute rush.

    and at least it cannot be a dead heat. :nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    No surprise that it is written by somebody that is pro-independence. How do we know that what they write is not just a bunch of cobblers?

     

    Tell you what then, go trawl through the data tables the polsters release for every poll and work out for yourself if it's cobblers or not. That's what James Kelly and Scottish Skier do. I've done too on the odd occasion too and, although both are unashamedly pro-Yes, I can see that they do base their opinions on the evidence provided.

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    Posted
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport

    Tell you what then, go trawl through the data tables the polsters release for every poll and work out for yourself if it's cobblers or not. That's what James Kelly and Scottish Skier do. I've done too on the odd occasion too and, although both are unashamedly pro-Yes, I can see that they do base their opinions on the evidence provided.

    Sounds like desperation IMO to pick up on absolutely anything that might indicate a win for yes.

    I guess if the no vote wins you can blame it on all the English living in Scotland lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    No not desperate to look it up, just thought that you might actually know what you were talking about was actually factual or made up but i guess it doesn't matter if it's true or not aslong as it doesn't go along with anti independence.

     

    Steady on, it's a well known fact that residents of Scotland who were born in England are far more likely to vote NO. It's not made up, go and look it up. I know that the earth is round but I don't need to look it up to prove it myself or to anyone else. I also know that residents of Scotland who were born in England are more likely to vote NO, I've read plenty of polling stats which prove it so I don't need to go back to it. It's a well known fact, nowt to do with it going along with anti-independence.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Anyone want a guess / sweep-stake on the result then? Closest wins the biggest snowfall of the winter in their back yard :p

     

    I'm going to say 55/45 for No

     

    51.97% NO to 48.03% YES and I'll have my snow on the 3rd of January 2015 thanks :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Steady on, it's a well known fact that residents of Scotland who were born in England are far more likely to vote NO. It's not made up, go and look it up. I know that the earth is round but I don't need to look it up to prove it myself or to anyone else. I also know that residents of Scotland who were born in England are more likely to vote NO, I've read plenty of polling stats which prove it so I don't need to go back to it. It's a well known fact, nowt to do with it going along with anti-independence.

    My daughter, born in England, will definitely be voting 'yes'. So would I, had I not gotten myself infatuated with a person of the female persuasion, and  crossed the border...

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Sounds like desperation IMO to pick up on absolutely anything that might indicate a win for yes.

    I guess if the no vote wins you can blame it on all the English living in Scotland lol.

    So much easier just to make flippant remarks than actually take the time to analyse something isn't it?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Im no Gordon Brown fan but this is the best speech of the whole No campaign. 

     

     

    That is just what the No campaign has missed - someone showing some passion for the Union in the same way that the Nationalists feel passion for the breakaway!

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    Posted
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport

    So much easier just to make flippant remarks than actually take the time to analyse something isn't it?

    Yes it is :-), Equally it is just as easy to say that everything that BTG says is all lies and anything that comes out of Salmonds mouth is gospel :-)

    Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    It's cos you're on the hitlist sent out by GCHQ.

     

     

    is that why there a van always parked outside :help: really need to go to shop, oh well :ninja:

    Im no Gordon Brown fan but this is the best speech of the whole No campaign. 

     

     

     

     

    just as well a lot of Scotland don't like him then and people who did are starting to turn away from him now as well

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    I did post a few days ago that AS was being a bit premature about automatic rights to join the EU and reject the Euro. I even specifically mentioned Spain but was dismissed as it being scaremongering.

    The EU itself (as well Spain) continue to say automatic entry is NOT guaranteed.

    Its highly likely to happen but AS doesn't have as much negotiating power against the EU establishment and ALL of its states as he does with Westminster.

    His task is achievable long term but he hasn't got a God given right to run roughshod over EU beauraccy.

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&ei=N5IZVPHvPKTMygPJ8oD4DA&url=http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/spain-independent-scotland-years-eu-membership&cd=5&ved=0CCsQFjAE&usg=AFQjCNE96QSkacXiTX4C3Nf4rPDoTZJa9w&sig2=jLJTMyiDvolkLPqVV8X07A

     

    Do you think the EU would allow some sort of interim arrangement where trade can still occur between the EU and Scotland? Or do you think it would be a stonewall "You're out on your ear, see ya" type thing? I can see where the possibility of a long delay could occur with full membership, but I would be surprised if the EU would allow a complete stop on all trade, movement of people, etc.

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