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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    just watching reporting Scotland on the BBC and it showed you Gordon brown coming into a public meeting shaking hands with people then went in to a close up when he sat down and he looked like a broken man don't know if that means anything but he didn't look happy at all

     

    Has Gordon Brown ever looked happy? Any time I've seen him attempt it it's just looked, ehm...wrong

     

    _45044907_brown_smile512.jpg

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Has Gordon Brown ever looked happy? Any time I've seen him attempt it it's just looked, ehm...wrong

     

    _45044907_brown_smile512.jpg

     

     

    it was just the way it was he came in shaking hands smiling then when he sat down you know you can just tell when there is something wrong with him he looked broken.

     

    might be nothing he might have been tired or wore out but its the first I have seen it from him through this he just had that resigned look on his face and worse than usual looked totally worried

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Kar, who knows far more about this than me, has already mentioned how complicated the pension issue is. So the question is, is there any truth in this or is it scaremongering.

     

    Scotland would have to shoulder an estimated £100 billion of pensions already promised to public sector workers north of the border if it votes for independence.

     

    Unlike its share of the UK national debt, which Alex Salmond, the first minister, has threatened to walk away from if he is not allowed to keep the pound, Scotland would definitely honour unfunded public sector pension promises in full.

     

    The Treasury has said the total liability figure for an independent Scotland was very difficult to estimate but “could be in the region of £100 billionâ€, which compares to £1.08 trillion for the whole of the UK.

     

    That comes on top of another approximately £100 billion of UK debt an independent Scotland would be under pressure to take on if it separates.

    With the exception of local authority workers and university staff, most public sector pensions throughout the UK are unfunded. Actual pension payments are financed by the contibutions of younger workers — a system known as pay as you go.

     

    I have no reason to dispute those figures or general statements.. they seem about right and are in no way scaremongering. The money has to come from somewhere, be it black gold or taxes  as no one has yet grown a money tree!

     

    The last bit is probably not totally accurate as public sector pensions as well as the state pension are funded from the general Treasury coffers which effectively means the public purse otherwise known as the taxpayer.

     

    It is widely acknowledged that public sector pensions are far more generous that most private sector ones usually being final salary schemes and index-linked and are often referenced to as gold plated. An example is that to match an average headmasters pension a private pension pot would need to be £1/2 million. The average private pot is only c £20-£30k

     

    AS has promised to maintain the agreed state pension so that would need to come of Scotlands coffers. Equally if he honours the public sector schemes they would need to be funded going forward from the Scottish treasury. My understanding is that Scotland has quite a proportionately high public sector so it's burden per capita may be higher than rUK.

     

    There are definitely significant shortfalls in the public (and many private) sector schemes.(see below.), 

     

    The shortfalls for prior year liabilities may be negotiated with WM but if AS refuses to pick up the share of the UK general debt WM will probably not want to bailout Scottish public sector workers.

     

    The solutions are all very uncertain but the one CERTAINTY is there are real HUGE public and private sector pension shortfalls which will need to be funded somehow by someone.

     

    http://citywire.co.uk/money/qanda-the-truth-about-public-sector-pensions/a587825

     

    The government and the public sector are at a stalemate over pensions, and each is peddling their own propaganda. So what are the real facts about public sector pensions?

    Debt: Public sector pensions are seriously underfunded to the tune of £1.2 trillion – that’s the equivalent of £45,000 per household, and the debt is increasing rapidly as the government isn’t putting anything aside to cover its obligations, not to mention the fact that people are living longer and pensions will have to be paid for longer.

    Longevity: It is a fact that we are living longer. The Office for National Statistics says a man aged 65 today will live to 83 on average, and a 65-year-old woman to 85 – meaning a possible 20 years in retirement. The Hutton Report into public sector pensions provides even more frightening figures, stating that a person retiring from a professional occupation can expect to live another 28 to 30 years.

    Private v public: According to a report by think-tank the Intergenerational Foundation, the gulf between private and public sector pensions is also increasing.

    • 88% of public sector workers are entitled to final salary pensions compared with fewer than 10% of private sector workers;
    • 78,000 retired public sector workers receive annual pensions of more than £25,900 – more than the average wage in the UK;
    • Over 12,000 retired public sector workers collect pensions of more than £50,000 per year;
    • The average public sector pension is around £7,000 a year, compared with £3,700 a year in the private sector;
    • 13 million private sector workers will currently get no pension other than the state pension.

     

     

    http://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2013/03/public-sector-pensions-funding-gap-set-to-double/

    The shortfall in public sector pensions is set to double over the next six years, according to the Centre for Policy Studies’ analysis of Budget figures.

    Johnson said that the figures were ‘indicative of successive governments’ talent for underestimating the cost of providing public service pensions’.

    He added: ‘Once taxpayer-funded employer contributions, over £16bn last year, are added to the burgeoning cashflow shortfall, along with additional costs care of the Treasury’s 25 year “no change†pledge [following the refoms], the annual cost of providing public service pensions will be over £1,500 per household, by 2016,

     

     

     

     

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

     

    I heard the Betfair bit at lunch. Seems a strange move if true, given that the polls have been narrowing if anything. Even stranger that they are paying out but still appear to be taking bets on a No vote.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    To be honest guys the volume of bets on the referendum are pretty insignificant anyway so no bookies are going to be hurt either way. The odds simply reflect the value of bets on each option. If, say a million was suddenly lumped on Yes, the odds would narrow quickly. Means nothing.

     

    These were the words of my brother who works for Ladbrokes.

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    To be honest guys the volume of bets on the referendum are pretty insignificant anyway so no bookies are going to be hurt either way. The odds simply reflect the value of bets on each option. If, say a million was suddenly lumped on Yes, the odds would narrow quickly. Means nothing.

     

    These were the words of my brother who works for Ladbrokes.

     

    yes, it does smack of publicity stunt

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    yes, it does smack of publicity stunt

     

    A bit of talk about this over on Scot goes Pop, and the consensus seems to be 'publicity stunt'. This comment is one of the more detailed. Even although the guy is talking about the Betfair Exchange and not the Sportsbook I think his point is still valid.

     

     

    This betfair talk is absolute absolute pish. It is categorically not true. If it was true the market would still not be open and the odds certainly wouldn't be at 1.28 were they pretty much have been the last few days with no change whatsoever. There will be movement later when polls come out. If that info was already out there the odds would have began going down for NO already, back to the levels they were at for most of the campaign. This hasn't happened.

    Anyone who knows anything about Betfair or who uses the site knows this is absolute utter trash talk. People can close position and trade out any time on exchanges, to lock in a profit, or accept a loss. That is a very different thing from the market actually being settled which it categorically hasn't.

    If it was all over on the betting exchanges the board would be clear, and all that would be left would be 1.01 to lay against NO and 1.01 to back on YES, from the cheeky chaps who do that sort of thing when the result is undecided.

    Give no credence to this kind of talk. If anyone had inside info on tonight's polls the markets would be changing, and right now they are as static as they have been for days.

    Never trust the Torygraph.

     

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/poll-of-polls-longer-term-perspective.html

    Edited by Ravelin
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

     

    Debt: Public sector pensions are seriously underfunded to the tune of £1.2 trillion – that’s the equivalent of £45,000 per household, and the debt is increasing rapidly as the government isn’t putting anything aside to cover its obligations, not to mention the fact that people are living longer and pensions will have to be paid for longer.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    another reason to vote YES that Westminster are ruining the pensions and from the looks of it things will just keep getting worse what more reason do you need than to protect your income after retirement

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    So.... what time is everyone voting tomorrow, im working from home so im thinking late morning / early afternoon will be quietest

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    So.... what time is everyone voting tomorrow, im working from home so im thinking late morning / early afternoon will be quietest

    Should be very quiet......you'll be on your own!! polling day is Thur 18th

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I have no reason to dispute those figures or general statements.. they seem about right and are in no way scaremongering. The money has to come from somewhere, be it black gold or taxes  as no one has yet grown a money tree!

     

    The last bit is probably not totally accurate as public sector pensions as well as the state pension are funded from the general Treasury coffers which effectively means the public purse otherwise known as the taxpayer.

     

    It is widely acknowledged that public sector pensions are far more generous that most private sector ones usually being final salary schemes and index-linked and are often referenced to as gold plated. An example is that to match an average headmasters pension a private pension pot would need to be £1/2 million. The average private pot is only c £20-£30k

     

    AS has promised to maintain the agreed state pension so that would need to come of Scotlands coffers. Equally if he honours the public sector schemes they would need to be funded going forward from the Scottish treasury. My understanding is that Scotland has quite a proportionately high public sector so it's burden per capita may be higher than rUK.

     

    There are definitely significant shortfalls in the public (and many private) sector schemes.(see below.), 

     

    The shortfalls for prior year liabilities may be negotiated with WM but if AS refuses to pick up the share of the UK general debt WM will probably not want to bailout Scottish public sector workers.

     

    The solutions are all very uncertain but the one CERTAINTY is there are real HUGE public and private sector pension shortfalls which will need to be funded somehow by someone.

     

    http://citywire.co.uk/money/qanda-the-truth-about-public-sector-pensions/a587825

     

    The government and the public sector are at a stalemate over pensions, and each is peddling their own propaganda. So what are the real facts about public sector pensions?

    Debt: Public sector pensions are seriously underfunded to the tune of £1.2 trillion – that’s the equivalent of £45,000 per household, and the debt is increasing rapidly as the government isn’t putting anything aside to cover its obligations, not to mention the fact that people are living longer and pensions will have to be paid for longer.

    Longevity: It is a fact that we are living longer. The Office for National Statistics says a man aged 65 today will live to 83 on average, and a 65-year-old woman to 85 – meaning a possible 20 years in retirement. The Hutton Report into public sector pensions provides even more frightening figures, stating that a person retiring from a professional occupation can expect to live another 28 to 30 years.

    Private v public: According to a report by think-tank the Intergenerational Foundation, the gulf between private and public sector pensions is also increasing.

    • 88% of public sector workers are entitled to final salary pensions compared with fewer than 10% of private sector workers;
    • 78,000 retired public sector workers receive annual pensions of more than £25,900 – more than the average wage in the UK;
    • Over 12,000 retired public sector workers collect pensions of more than £50,000 per year;
    • The average public sector pension is around £7,000 a year, compared with £3,700 a year in the private sector;
    • 13 million private sector workers will currently get no pension other than the state pension.

     

     

    http://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2013/03/public-sector-pensions-funding-gap-set-to-double/

    The shortfall in public sector pensions is set to double over the next six years, according to the Centre for Policy Studies’ analysis of Budget figures.

    Johnson said that the figures were ‘indicative of successive governments’ talent for underestimating the cost of providing public service pensions’.

    He added: ‘Once taxpayer-funded employer contributions, over £16bn last year, are added to the burgeoning cashflow shortfall, along with additional costs care of the Treasury’s 25 year “no change†pledge [following the refoms], the annual cost of providing public service pensions will be over £1,500 per household, by 2016,

     

     

     

     

     

    Many thanks for that detailed reply Kar. Which ever way you hatch it it's a nightmare scenario.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Should be very quiet......you'll be on your own!! polling day is Thur 18th

     

    Maybe he just wants to be first in the queue, a bit like outside an Apple shop when the new iPhone goes on sale. That's a thought, who fancies a bit of publicity by camping out in a sleeping bag overnight in front of a polling station?

     

    Seriously thought, I'll probably vote in the morning. Would like to take my 7yr old with me, so prior to dropping him off at school.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    If a bet looks too good to be true never trust a bookie. Total stunt. They paid out on Rangers winning the league once and Celtic ended up winning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    Maybe he just wants to be first in the queue, a bit like outside an Apple shop when the new iPhone goes on sale. That's a thought, who fancies a bit of publicity by camping out in a sleeping bag overnight in front of a polling station?

     

    Seriously thought, I'll probably vote in the morning. Would like to take my 7yr old with me, so prior to dropping him off at school.

    Sounds a decent idea with the weather not being bad at the moment. What's the location of your polling station like? Scenic glen or busy high street?

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    another reason to vote YES that Westminster are ruining the pensions and from the looks of it things will just keep getting worse what more reason do you need than to protect your income after retirement

     

    It's not clear to me why Scotland won't have the same problem on transfer. And the money has to come from somewhere

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Just thought of something else. If the bookies have seen good polls for yes. Maybe they are trying to get the no bets in before the polls come out!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Would students in Scotland still have free universities and free prescriptions for all? Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the union paying towards that? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

    What's that old saying? You never see a poor bookie?

    If I was a yes voter I might be a bit worried by this news. You could argue it's a publicity stunt but that article highlights the rationale for the decision; the big money is going on "No", whereas the pocket change is going on "Yes", typically.

    These guys are in the business of making money - their very game is balancing risk vs reward. Is the risk of losing multi-millions, and the bad publicity surrounding paying out early on a incorrect outcome, worth the reward of good publicity for "getting it right" before anyone else? It looks like it is for them.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    It's not clear to me why Scotland won't have the same problem on transfer. And the money has to come from somewhere

     

     

    we might have the same problem on transfer but we could work straight away to take steps to rectify it maybe it would be too late for those near retirement but people still paying or just taking a pension up we could certainly help them and the Scottish government has a far better track record than Westmonster for doing things right for the people

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

     

    Nobody claimed it wasn't true. They are paying out but that doesn't mean it isn't a publicity stunt. The odds on No winning have been increasing so it's likely that most of the best they have taken on No are at shorter odds than they have now. Their exposure may not be that high. If they were 100% sure of  No then surely they would close their sportsbook to bets on that result?

     

    Just thought of something else. If the bookies have seen good polls for yes. Maybe they are trying to get the no bets in before the polls come out!

     

    Possible. If there's good polls for Yes coming up then encouraging people to bet on No now could be a good earner for them.

     

    Sounds a decent idea with the weather not being bad at the moment. What's the location of your polling station like? Scenic glen or busy high street?

     

    Village centre and not that scenic unfortunately. On the positive side the chip-shop is right next door, Chinese and Indian Takeaways, a small CO-OP and two pubs all within 2mins walk.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Would students in Scotland still have free universities and free prescriptions for all? Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the union paying towards that? 

     

     

    no the union isn't they are reducing our budget and the only reason these things have been kept so far is due to the Scottish government taking tough decisions with reducing college places to make sure all these things are still free the only way to guarantee these things is with independence.

     

    the union doesn't pay for these

     

    post-18233-0-73831200-1410876802_thumb.j

     

    people need to get this illusion out there heads that westmonster give us extra money when they don't its the other way around

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    What's that old saying? You never see a poor bookie?

    If I was a yes voter I might be a bit worried by this news. You could argue it's a publicity stunt but that article highlights the rationale for the decision; the big money is going on "No", whereas the pocket change is going on "Yes", typically.

    These guys are in the business of making money - their very game is balancing risk vs reward. Is the risk of losing multi-millions, and the bad publicity surrounding paying out early on a incorrect outcome, worth the reward of good publicity for "getting it right" before anyone else? It looks like it is for them.

     

     

    there paying out on polls that have been way out in the past look at previous referendums.

     

    maybe there just being stupid and not doing any real researching on it

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    not our pound and we cant keep it ppppfffffttttt

     

    post-18233-0-19265900-1410877783_thumb.j

     

    more powers after a no vote ppppfffffftttttt

     

    post-18233-0-21033300-1410877796_thumb.j

     

    not privatising the NHS ppppfffffffftttttttt

     

    post-18233-0-63545500-1410877809_thumb.p

    Edited by Buriedundersnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

    there paying out on polls that have been way out in the past look at previous referendums.

     

    maybe there just being stupid and not doing any real researching on it

     

    They haven't paid out early through stupidity or lack of research - that would be stupid, and bookmakers are too wealthy to be that stupid, or complacent.

     

    It would be interesting to see some reliable figures on past early pay-outs vs outcomes, so we can at least attempt to quantify how significant this news is. My initial take is that more often than not they are correct, otherwise they wouldn't still be doing it.

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