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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    looking forward to the results night. Glad when its all resolved. Some of the German/ Italian news channels showing the results live over here, although I can view BBC world news and Sky News.Not one bit of interest with the locals, most could not even point to Salzburg on the map ,nether mind Edinburgh. Drinking local beer and the forthcoming ski season occupies their thoughts most importantly!

    However, there is some serious political thought in our near neighbours of the South Tirol who will be very encouraged should the outcome of the result favour a nod to the Yes campaign. They will then proceed to rack up the tempo for a exit from Rome Government.

    C

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

    Posted Images

    Just a couple of pieces from the BBC which underlines what an incoherent shambles the recent panicked pronouncements over further powers is. Gordon Brown and Danny Alexander went on about Federalism, Cameron today that the UK Government is not even close to considering an English Parliament, yet points out the WLQ will get much more pressing yet has no concept of how to deal with it:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29170545

    Welsh politicians complain that pledges made to Scotland are unfair. Similar basis to what backbench Tories and UKIP are arguing, public spending per head equal across the UK. That won't make a fairer British State, it will mean more wealth transferred from Scotland to London and the SE, more of our taxes paying for infrastructure that further overheats the SE at the expense of everywhere else. More of our oil revenues used to undermine the NE of Scotland's post oil economic potential not enhance it.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-29217832

    The thread I started on England in a federal UK has had 5 posts !! That underlines the problem with UK wide constitutional reform!

     

    While I agree in general that the situation is a mess, the point about wealth being transferred from Scotland (or wherever) to London and the SE is just wrong plain and simple. Greater London generates the largest amount of UK GDP (or GVA) in total or capita by far (oil receipts or not). Of course the wealth and opportunity should be shared more evenly, but this has to be done in a way that doesn't strangle the largest contributor to the economy. This is not unique to this country with the rise of so-called 'megacities' worldwide, it is the natural agglomeration of businesses, population and wealth.

     

    Other than that, yeah the pledge seems hasty and pretty unsatisfactory on most sides.

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  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I agree that the polls could be shown up come the result. With no previous template and a question of how truthful voters might be with pollsters essentially anything could happen on Thursday.

    I don't prescribe to the notion that the hidden million haven't been represented in polling, unless these people have all decided to go Victorian without a phone or internet connection it's likely they would have been sampled.

    Whether they're telling the truth to pollsters or just saying DK is another matter.

    In terms of what happens on Thursday however this could be worrying if you support No, we know from previous research that those new voters are going to be represented by more DEs in terms of demographics than lets say AB's.

    This voter group is likely to have been previously disconnected with politics, have a high degree of cynicism. So the fact we have seen an excellent voter registration suggests that a lot of people who've never voted intend to.If you're a BT supporter the alarm bells should be ringing.

    For those that have a lot, good jobs, houses the emotion argument can get trumped by the fear of change, however if you're struggling to make ends meat how much do you really have to lose?

    The vote essentially IMO will be decided purely on which demographic really gets to the polls, will the cynicism and disconnection still reduce DEs turnout?

    There are reasons to be cheerful if you support Yes however the fear of change message may well erode some of that increased turnout in pro Yes groups.

    We shouldn't underestimate the difficult decision people have to make. And how that softer middle ground of voters will be effected. To show the unprecedented nature of this vote. There is no modern example of a developed wealthy nation separating from another wealthy nation, all modern winning referenda have been in countries which either had the spectre of communism as a backdrop, or were war torn or suffered oppression and human rights abuses.

    There is no clear it will be better after Yes, with the best will in the world Yes have not made a clear economic case that stands up to scrutiny however IMO it's difficult for them to do so. You have to accept risk if you vote Yes, this is impossible to avoid, if you're happy to accept some risk and feel in your heart it's the right thing to do then it's a no brainer.

    The question is which will win out in those in the middle? That IMO will decide the result especially in those new voters.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    RE: Health Budget Article

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29213416

     

    Couple of giveaway sentences in there... the story moves from suggestion and allegation to statement and conclusion. Clever writing. Also places this conclusion prior to the response from Alex Neil, which in itself is pretty factual and dismissive of the sensationalist 'whistle blowing'.

     

    They suggest the NHS is facing a £400m funding gap, and sweeping changes will be needed for boards to break even.

    The whistleblower has alleged that pressures on the NHS come from Scottish government policies.

    The Scottish government reversed the closure of Accident and Emergency departments at Monklands and Ayr hospitals, but the papers suggest such dramatic measures may be back on the table.

    "Radical and urgent decisions need to be made regarding the shape and configuration of services," the document states. But it also points out that boards are "without the mandate and authority to implement the scale of change and redesign required"."We need to commit to these priorities and accept that significant changes require to be implemented," the papers conclude.

    Thereby, you have an article that is a regular discussion piece on budget requirements re: implementation of short term, key services in trade off with longer term community plans spanning the next 6 years and under review for implementation by 2020.

    This could have easily been written with a slant focusing on immediate funding of vital services, and also could have focused on the budgetary requirements levvied via UK Govt and/or the costs of taking private healthcare back under state ownership.

    What really confuses me with respect to all arguments on health is the lack of reporting on the NHS marches to save the NHS from swathing privatisation, this is before we even examine the muddy waters of TTIP and the gruesome precedent this could set for the NHS UK wide.

    Some recent parliament commentary from Alex Neil located here includes PFI, Budgets, independence preference among NHS staff and privatisation queries..

    http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/28862.aspx?r=9497&i=85334&c=1710758#.VBgVV_ldWSp

     

     

    Edit - Add Link Why Yes in the NHS argument from the Herald in September here.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/letters/prescribing-yes-to-protect-nhs.25254127

     

    Clearly the area of health has been identified as pivotal for undecideds, hence the release of a story engineered from a meeting that took place over 30 days ago..

     

    Edited by lorenzo
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    The question was this and is that supposed to be an intelllgent answer?

     

    this is what balhama posted on it last night

     

     

    Public sector pensions will be equally safe. In May this year Neil Walsh, the Irish-born pensions officer for the Prospect trade union (which is neutral on independence), conducted a conference call for union members to explain the ramifications of a Yes vote to the union’s members, and others in a similar position.

    “If you [are] a member of a public service pension scheme that’s already delivered by a Scottish administration - and that includes the NHS, teachers’ pension scheme, fire authority, local government pensions - then literally I can’t imagine what would be very different under independence because you’re already having your occupational pension delivered by a Scottish administrator.

    The responsibility for each and every one of those schemes, NHS, teachers, police, fire and local government, would be taken over by an independent Scotland and continue to be delivered in precisely the same way that you’ve always been used to.â€

    On the subject of UK-wide public sector pensions, such as those applying to the armed forces and civil service, Walsh noted that negotiation would be required between governments, but that nobody should worry and members wouldn’t notice any change:

    “The Scottish Government says the most appropriate way to divide up responsibility is for them on independence to take responsibility for the state and public service pension of anybody who lives in an independent Scotland at that time, the UK Government says that that might not be the most appropriate way.

    But I don’t think anybody says no-one will become responsible for your public sector pension after independence. It would be a matter for negotiation behind the scenes, and actually you as a member should just continue on paying your contributions seamlessly if you are an active member or receiving your benefits seamlessly if you’re a pensioner member.â€

     

     

    I would imagine if its a UK wide scheme then this will be passed over to the Scottish government during the negotiations and should be an easy pass over seen as its a pension thing its not really a negotiation more Westminster handing over what is legally entitled to the people

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    ICM have been talking about getting the Yes vote wrong before their poll is released today. It can only mean that they have now found Yes are further ahead than they predicted as they will be basing the Herald article on latest findings. Looking forward to this coming out today. Also I hear there are another 3 polls tonight!

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    While I agree in general that the situation is a mess, the point about wealth being transferred from Scotland (or wherever) to London and the SE is just wrong plain and simple. Greater London generates the largest amount of UK GDP (or GVA) in total or capita by far (oil receipts or not). Of course the wealth and opportunity should be shared more evenly, but this has to be done in a way that doesn't strangle the largest contributor to the economy. This is not unique to this country with the rise of so-called 'megacities' worldwide, it is the natural agglomeration of businesses, population and wealth.

     

    Other than that, yeah the pledge seems hasty and pretty unsatisfactory on most sides.

     

    GDP is not always the best indicator of actual wealth. The UK's GDP per head is one of the highest in the world. Is everyone wealthy? London and the SE's GDP is the highest in the UK. Is everyone who lives in London wealthy?

     

    The point is that capital spending in London is far higher than anywhere else in the UK. The ultra-massive infrastructure projects are treated as UK spending.

     

    This article from the Spectator covers it nicely:

     

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2013/12/london-is-different-the-government-will-spend-money-there/

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    It's a v interesting debate about accuracy of the pollsters that seems to be developing (today especially).

     

    Reading Kellner on YouGov's website last night he seems to believe that "No" has weathered the storm of a couple of weeks ago and is defo ahead and looks like winning.

    But then reading the ICM guy expressing doubts about accuracy of the polls thru' the summer, it's hard to know what to believe, quite frankly.

     

    If the pollsters are eventually proved v wrong and "Yes" wins by a large margin big Qs will be asked of the pollsters and their traditional sample collection and methodology - and not just by pundits following this debate but also by fellow researchers, quite frankly!

     

    Interesting times.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    RE: Health Budget Article

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29213416

     

    Couple of giveaway sentences in there... the story moves from suggestion and allegation to statement and conclusion. Clever writing. Also places this conclusion prior to the response from Alex Neil, which in itself is pretty factual and dismissive of the sensationalist 'whistle blowing'.

     

    They suggest the NHS is facing a £400m funding gap, and sweeping changes will be needed for boards to break even.

    The whistleblower has alleged that pressures on the NHS come from Scottish government policies.

    The Scottish government reversed the closure of Accident and Emergency departments at Monklands and Ayr hospitals, but the papers suggest such dramatic measures may be back on the table.

    "Radical and urgent decisions need to be made regarding the shape and configuration of services," the document states. But it also points out that boards are "without the mandate and authority to implement the scale of change and redesign required"."We need to commit to these priorities and accept that significant changes require to be implemented," the papers conclude.

    Thereby, you have an article that is a regular discussion piece on budget requirements re: implementation of short term, key services in trade off with longer term community plans spanning the next 6 years and under review for implementation by 2020.

    This could have easily been written with a slant focusing on immediate funding of vital services, and also could have focused on the budgetary requirements levvied via UK Govt and/or the costs of taking private healthcare back under state ownership.

    What really confuses me with respect to all arguments on health is the lack of reporting on the NHS marches to save the NHS from swathing privatisation, this is before we even examine the muddy waters of TTIP and the gruesome precedent this could set for the NHS UK wide.

    Some recent parliament commentary from Alex Neil located here includes PFI, Budgets, independence preference among NHS staff and privatisation queries..

    http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/28862.aspx?r=9497&i=85334&c=1710758#.VBgVV_ldWSp

     

     

    Edit - Add Link Why Yes in the NHS argument from the Herald in September here.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/letters/prescribing-yes-to-protect-nhs.25254127

     

    Clearly the area of health has been identified as pivotal for undecideds, hence the release of a story engineered from a meeting that took place over 30 days ago..

     

    What a totally specious analysis. The word "state" reflects the fact that they are quoting from the document. Similarly, if someone has allegations and suggestions as to what they think the situation is, they can still reach conclusions based on these (i.e., conclusions that work on the assumption that their calculations are correct).

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    What really confuses me with respect to all arguments on health is the lack of reporting on the NHS marches to save the NHS from swathing privatisation, 

     

    Maybe, with respect to those taking part, because they weren't really very significant?

    Police estimate between 3,000-5,000 attended the rally in Trafalgar Square - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29094093

    But the NHS employs over 1.7 million people so at most less than 0.3% of the workforce took part.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    I'd be interested if the "Yes" campaign 'leaders' have made an official response to the SNHS story released on the BBC today.

    Sturgeon on 'funding gap'

     

    Posted at

     

    12:04

    Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has denied that details of a potential £400m NHS funding gap means the health service is at risk under the SNP.

    She said: "This is a discussion document not a decision document. I'm part of a Government that has protected the revenue budgets of the health service and will continue to strive to do that.

    "It's a discussion document written in the context of the status quo, not in the context of independence."

     

     

    Sounds like a pretty poor attempt to squirm out of that one. Not convincing at all. (Note also "will continue to STRIVE to do that". YES always going on about no guarantees... well there's an example.)

    Edited by NickR
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  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    It's a v interesting debate about accuracy of the pollsters that seems to be developing (today especially).

     

    Reading Kellner on YouGov's website last night he seems to believe that "No" has weathered the storm of a couple of weeks ago and is defo ahead and looks like winning.

    But then reading the ICM guy expressing doubts about accuracy of the polls thru' the summer, it's hard to know what to believe, quite frankly.

     

    If the pollsters are eventually proved v wrong and "Yes" wins by a large margin big Qs will be asked of the pollsters and their traditional sample collection and methodology - and not just by pundits following this debate but also by fellow researchers, quite frankly!

     

    Interesting times.

     

    Whatever the outcome researchers are going to busy over the next couple of years. I think there's a lot of questions being thrown up by this, polling being one of many. Defo interesting times, that's one thing we can all agree on :)

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  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit
  • Weather Preferences: Hot N' Sunny / Cauld N' Snawy
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit

    I don't Know if any of you have seen this doing it's rounds?

    Subject: Scotland

    "Scotland has only 8.3% of the UK's population. 8.3%! Remember this important figure... 8.3%

    But we DO have...

    32% of the land area.

    61% of the sea area.

    90% of the fresh water.

    65% of the natural gas production.

    96.5% of the crude oil production.

    47% of the open cast coal production

    81% of the untapped coal reserves

    62% of the timber production

    46% of the total forest area

    92% of the hydro electric production

    40% of the wind wave and solar energy production

    60% of the fish landings

    30% of the beef herd

    20% of the sheep herd

    9% of the dairy herd

    10% of the pig herd

    15% if the cereal holdings

    20% of the potato holdings

    ...obviously 100% of the Scotch Whiskey industry.

    We have a...

    17 billion pound construction industry

    13 billion food and drink industry

    10 billion business services industry

    9.3 billion chemical services industry

    A 9.3 billion tourism industry

    7 billion financial services industry

    5 billion aeroservice industry

    4.5 billion pound whiskey exports industry

    3.1 billion pound life sciences industry

    Scotland still has 350 million pounds worth of textile exports

    We have 25% of Europes wave and wind energy potential.

    And finally we are blessed to have 1.5 trillion pound worth of oil and gas reserves.

    All of this, yet only 8.3% of The UK's population... Whaow Scotland should be rich!

    ------------------

    Do you know... This is the UK's legacy of success in our history of being better-together is as follows...

    The UK has the 3rd lowest pensions in the 34 OECD countries of the world

    The UK has the single most expensive childcare in the European Union

    The UK has the second lowest-paid economy in the entire developed world

    The UK has the 3rd longest working hours in the EU

    The UK has the lowest number of holidays in the EU

    The UK has the 8th highest gender inequality pay gap out of the EU's 28 countries

    The UK has the highest likelihood of poverty in disablement in the EU

    The UK has the highest rail prices in Europe

    The UK has the second highest housing cost in Europe

    The UK has the highest fuel poverty rates in Europe.

    The UK is the 4th highest country of wealth inequality in the entire planet!

    But surely these awful figures cannot be possible when you read the following Scottish statistics...

    Now, finally, did you also know that in all of the UK's elections for Westminster ever!... Not one vote cast in SCOTLAND has ever mattered! Because of the Westminster numbers, whatever government England votes for, the UK gets. So we have no democracy here!!! 4 decades of tory rule that we voted against is proof enough, and our defiance was punished by the closure of all the mines; closure of all the steelworks; closure of all the shipyards losing hundreds if thousands of jobs. The term used by Westminster's Thatcher when these industries needed some assistance was "let the markets decide". Funny how when the greedy bankers collapsed everywhere they were bailed out to the tune of over a trillion pounds of our money... Not a mention of "let the markets decide".

    FACTS:

    Fact: Scotland has an oil boom waiting to happen on the West Coast, but Michael Hesaltine signed a cessation of any form of oil exploration in the entire area in the 80's to make way for nuclear submarines which Scotland doesn't want!

    Fact: Scotland has shown its revulsion time and time again to nuclear weapons but they place them here against our countries wishes. A recent contingency report was carried out a out the feasibility of relocating them in Portsmouth. The report stated that it was unfeasible because the detrimental risk to the area of an incident was too high. (Ok for the Clyde though)

    Fact: Scotland, with only 1 Tory MP, was forced to take the shocking attack on the poor & disabled called The Bedroom Tax, even though as our nations government, Holyrood voted to utterly reject this awful tax on the poor. Westminster gave us it anyway!

    Fact: We are led to believe that the oil in our waters is finished and its a dying industry. Yet 13.5 billion has been invested by oil companies in the last 2 years alone!

    Fact: The Clair Oil Field is about to open, and on its own has over 650 million barrels which will be extracted over 20+ years with production reaching a hundred thousand barrels a day!

    Fact: Scotland gives more to Westminster than it gets back. Do you really think they'd be so keen to keep us if we were being subsidised like they'd have us believe?

    Fact: Westminster has amassed over £1.3 trillion debt and still growing at nearly £6000 a second. Thats another £516 million today alone which YOU will have to pay for.

    Fact: Of the 178 countries that have gained their own independence across this planet, not one single one of them has ever asked to reverse this independence, and very few of them have the assets we have.

    SCOTLAND, WHAT ARE WE SCARED OF?"

    Big Innes

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    An interesting read that would seem to back up some of my impressions of the YES camp.

     

    http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/ewan-morrison-yes-why-i-joined-yes-and-why-i-changed-to-no/

     

    That's a very interesting article and one that resonates with my current thinking 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    I'd be interested if the "Yes" campaign 'leaders' have made an official response to the SNHS story released on the BBC today.

     

    The Scottish government said the paper was "part of the regular discussions among NHS leaders to plan for NHS Scotland's future".

     

    Health Secretary Alex Neil said: "We've protected Scotland's NHS from the Tories' cuts, and with independence we can ensure that it is never again under threat from Westminster's dangerous obsession with austerity.

     

    "Despite Scotland's budget being slashed by 7.2% by George Osborne between 2010/11 and 2015/16, our increases in health spending means that the NHS is receiving record high funding, with a budget increase of over £1bn between 2010/11 and 2015/16."

     

    He added: "To ensure we can continue to develop the NHS, it's important that NHS boards regularly discuss their future plans to inform budget discussions with Scottish government officials, and to identify how we will continue to deliver quality care and treatment.

     

    "We continue to develop our health service to meet the changing demands of the people of Scotland, and that's why we've already legislated to integrate health and social care from April next year.

     

    "This integration of services is particularly important to ensure our elderly population is kept well and provided with care in the best setting for their wellbeing."

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29213416

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  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

     

     

     

    Sounds like a pretty poor attempt to squirm out of that one. Not convincing at all. (Note also "will continue to STRIVE to do that". YES always going on about no guarantees... well there's an example.)

     

    Spin it how you like. But it is exactly what I said it would be, a discussion document.

     

    A discussion document about how cuts would have to be implemented when the Westminster governement cuts the block grant again. It is called good Government to be prepared is it not?

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  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Worth reading

    "Polling analyst and political gambler" Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB):

    New post. Why Ipsos-MORI's final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night http://bit.ly/1uF8sDA

     

    Ipsos were the most accurate at predicting 2011 Holyrood election results. And theirs tom evening is phone-based (which i prefer for accuracy).

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  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Alex Salmond tried to make a reply this morning on Radio Scotland. Gary Robertson kept hectoring over him. When he finally got to speak he advised it was reflecting the 3% efficiency savings agreed when the budget was set. However Gary Robertsons angry ranting gave the game away. Make an accusation and dont allow an answer. Gary's questions were 5 times the length of the answers allowed. It sums up why BBC is totally morally bankrupt. Thats why we protested because they are an utter disgrace to democracy. If we win it will be victory over them as well!

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    Reference the polling data. SS has been saying for ages that the weighting has been wrong and few fellow posters on here even laughed mocking at the figures that have been blatantly skewed when the H&I showing at majority NO vote....when it should have been the other way round!

     

    The No campaign has been too negative, nothing to offer except fear. This becomes depressing, even the most die hard No campaigners will tell you this. There needed to be some positivity, but nothing was on offer except, stick with us and you will be ok.

     

    The reason,I think, that Devo-Max was not offered, was because Westminster does want to relinquish any powers. For example, WLQ has never been address, why..because allowing devolved areas to vote only to applicable countries, would mean less Westminster say, less work for the HOL and less legitimacy to withdraw powers at a later stage...looking like Big Brother. So maintaining those votes at Westminster (even if it looks unfair and undemocratic to English voters) is paramount to having the finger on the trigger to withdraw any devolved powers in one swift action. This is further tied up by the reluctance to deal with the HOL question on an elected second chamber, to have a proper federal UK we will need a elected second chamber and an English only parliament, this is not going to happen that is why Devo-max was never on offer.

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  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    It's a v interesting debate about accuracy of the pollsters that seems to be developing (today especially).

     

    Reading Kellner on YouGov's website last night he seems to believe that "No" has weathered the storm of a couple of weeks ago and is defo ahead and looks like winning.

    But then reading the ICM guy expressing doubts about accuracy of the polls thru' the summer, it's hard to know what to believe, quite frankly.

     

    If the pollsters are eventually proved v wrong and "Yes" wins by a large margin big Qs will be asked of the pollsters and their traditional sample collection and methodology - and not just by pundits following this debate but also by fellow researchers, quite frankly!

     

    Interesting times.

     

     

    see I was watching the news the other night and even they were saying that these polls done for the referendum can be way off as they don't really have anything to base it on like the do with election polls because it is vastly different and they don't have very much to base it against so these official polls could end up being way off at the end of the day

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  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    What a totally specious analysis. The word "state" reflects the fact that they are quoting from the document. Similarly, if someone has allegations and suggestions as to what they think the situation is, they can still reach conclusions based on these (i.e., conclusions that work on the assumption that their calculations are correct).

    We don't have sight of the paper itself to corroborate. Just my impression Nick.

    For me an article ramped from regular budget discussions, papers over the real point in the bigger argument around the NHS, the funding policy alterations made to protect acute services. Re lexus, my thoughts are that proposes is a world apart from concludes.

    I think it is also a fair point to say this whole story could be presented in another context.

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  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    post-18233-0-08161600-1410870927_thumb.j

     

     

    just watching reporting Scotland on the BBC and it showed you Gordon brown coming into a public meeting shaking hands with people then went in to a close up when he sat down and he looked like a broken man don't know if that means anything but he didn't look happy at all

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  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    right I just watched the NHS thing on reporting Scotland they said the paper was leaked to them by NHS chiefs and the paper states over the next two years the NHS in Scotland will face a £400 million shortfall and this paper was only supposed to be seen by NHS chiefs it wasn't ment to be in the public.

     

    most importantly it never said anything about INDEPENDENCE which would lead me to believe this is going on about what will happen under the UK government and maybe why it was leaked.

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  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    Bookies still not having a yes vote

     

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

     

    avg looks like 3/1 for Yes and 1/4 for No

     

    And BetFair are paying out on No  :shok: . Wow

     

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/leisure/11098848/Betfair-pays-out-early-on-Scottish-independence-No-vote.html

    Edited by JoeShmoe
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