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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Oh dear Nick.Wrong side of bed this morning. Wrong side of bed this morning. Wrong side of bed this morning.Would you prefer one space or two.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

     

    hello kar.

     

    Scotland will not be the first member to not be seen to go down the joining the euro route. I dont know if you read it , but  in the link i posted , you will see from the E .U`s own website

     

     

    http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/euro/adoption/who_can_join/index_en.htm   

     

    So as far as im aware , if scotland  , upon continuation of eu membership as an independant country would join the above. Croatia , who joined last year , does not as you can see have a target date for joining the euro yet your quote appears to say they are in 2019 so there appears to be a discrepancy there.

     

     

     

    From  your link....

    However, under the Treaty, Sweden is required to adopt the euro.

    The remaining non-participating Member States acceded to the Union in 2004 and 2007, after the euro was launched. At the time of their accession, they did not meet the conditions for entry to the euro area, therefore their Treaties of Accession allow them time to make the necessary adjustments – they are Member States with a 'derogation', as is Sweden. These Member States have committed to joining the euro area as soon as they fulfil the entry conditions. When this is the case, the 'derogation' is 'abrogated' by a decision of the Council, and the Member State concerned adopts the euro.

     

    From my link...

    The EU would not allow Scotland to join unless it agreed to join the euro and made good faith attempts to qualify. The SNP's apparent policy of joining saying it would try to qualify for the euro and then never getting around to it would be totally unacceptable to other EU members and would not be accepted..

     

    Maybe I'm misunderstanding this but I read it as new States timetables for joining the Euro are determined by meeting criteria but there is no longer any provision for opting-out.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    I haven't been polled but my family and I were canvassed by Better Together for their Inverness survey.

    Never heard about the outcome though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Another snap of Glasgow.

     

    10628330_776741895721327_762745175355888

     

    Similar scenes in other cities - I've seen vids from Inverness and Perth on Facebook.

     

    As I understand it, largely to an extent spontaneous; Yes organise something with local activists, then passers by just join in.

     

    Dougie McLean (writer of song) appears and joins in singing Caledonia in Perth.

     

    https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152372826592496&set=vb.596992495&type=2&theater

     

    This is all being shown by the MSM right?

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    Another snap of Glasgow.

     

    10628330_776741895721327_762745175355888

     

    Similar scenes in other cities - I've seen vids from Inverness and Perth on Facebook.

     

    As I understand it, largely to an extent spontaneous; Yes organise something with local activists, then passers by just join in.

     

    Dougie McLean (writer of song) appears and joins in singing Caledonia in Perth.

     

    https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152372826592496&set=vb.596992495&type=2&theater

    I think I'm beginning to wonder if that poll earlier today is fake or not. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Someone reporting an IÇM poll where yes have 8% lead.Not confirmed yet of source or validity! Sorry Nick forgot your space again hope you can read this!

    Edited by November13
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    A quick summary of things that could impact your vote on Thursday:

     

    Sunshine is more likely to make people vote for the "optimistic choice", rubbish weather puts people in a less happy mood so they're more likely to go for the safer less optimistic choice.

     

    Rain dampens turnout, those least likely to go to the polls in this case are demographically speaking CDE, bad weather is less likely to effect older voters, this group resolutely will row to the polling station if need be!

     

    Herd mentality, backing the winner, why is narrative important, people like to be on the winning side, also the more people that choose an option the more this normalizes the choice.

     

    Rebel vote which could be an issue here, the warnings of impending doom could backfire if a rebellious vote begins to increase, dire warnings are likely to rebound in younger voters.

     

    DK's where do they go, historically in normal referendum those break for the status quo.. With little research on independence referendum we have to really look at psychological research into how we react to stress, the greater we perceive the personal impact of a decision the more likely we are to head to the perceived safety of the less riskier option. Women are generally less risk averse and so are more likely to go for this option.

     

    As you can see a bit of good news for both camps, some favours Yes and some No.

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    Posted
  • Location: Central Falkirk
  • Location: Central Falkirk

    Earlier this afternoon I was up the High Street in Falkirk, and passed the 'Yes' and BT stalls, very close to one another. It was a bit of a chicane, dodging the prowling canvassers. I was struck by the marked age-differential - lots of younger people manning the Yes stall, and engaging passers-by in conversation - some only in their late teens, I'd say. All very pleasant and enthusiastic. By contrast, on the BT stall, most of the activists were much older, all of them the far side of fifty.

     

    If 'yes' loses, it's likely that they'll have failed to engage the over fifties - and the poll data supports that. With an ageing population, that's a real issue. I'm the wrong side of fifty myself, but only just. I honestly don't think that it's just the fear factor with our older Scots, no matter what Yes keep saying. Older people have long memories, and have achieved some perspective as they've watched governments and politicians come and go. They've developed a healthy distrust of politicians from both sides, and don't like younger people telling them what to think. So the undeniably effective grassroots campaign hasn't worked so well with them, requiring as it does the energy of younger people to carry the message out. No-one likes to be patronised by someone half of your age - believe me (and I'm bruised by repeated such encounters with my own children). Ditto social media. Distrust of facebook and twitter is almost universal for those over sixty, apart from the (very) few who embrace it.

     

    I know the results aren't in yet, but if yes loses, and as it contemplates how to do it differently / better next time around (and there will be a next time around, quite soon); two things will be key. One is cultivating a more sympathetic media, one way or another, and the other is reaching out to enrol the support of older people far more effectively. Those in retirement now are doing very nicely, thanks, many of them, and the challenge will be to deflect them from their cosy featherbedded self-interest in order to see that they might be able to improve things so that the younger generation will have it just as good as they do now. If yes wins, the challenge will be to meet the huge expectations built up that things can be improved for the many with no penalty for the few. But i suspect today's pensioners will be alright either way!

    Edited by decomm18
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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    I see Sillars has been making threatening noises to some of the big co.s, if next week returns a "Yes".

    Is he from the more left wing part of the SNP?

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    I think I'm beginning to wonder if that poll earlier today is fake or not.

    Inverness a few hours ago

    post-8058-0-53189500-1410633112_thumb.jp

    Edited by NorthernRab
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I see Sillars has been making threatening noises to some of the big co.s, if next week returns a "Yes".

    Is he from the more left wing part of the SNP?

     

    He's not in the SNP as I understand it. Not a politician any more for sure. His wife was Margo McDonald (RIP), MSP.

     

    Was in the past, coming from a Labour background.

     

    What he said was to appeal to Labour voters which want exactly the stuff he was proposing. Seems to have gone down well with them.

     

    SNP have of course pointed out he's entitled to his own personal views.

     

    I'm very supportive of part nationalisation of new developments in oil and gas; all perfectly possible as every country shows (bar UK and USA). He chimed with me, although maybe a little too firebrand!

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    The no poll was internal and coincided with the tweet about the postal vote. I am very suspicious of internal polls. This new ICM poll with yes 8% lead seems to be a mistake but we will see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Here's something interesting if Scotland stays.. Based on universal swing of the last Scottish poll from Youguv for Westminster the Tories could pick up 3 seats from the Libs. Most notably, Aberdeen West and Berwickshire. I suspect that Edinburgh West while showing a Tory victory would be edged by the SNP given their presence on the council as i recall.


    Someone reporting an IÇM poll where yes have 8% lead.Not confirmed yet of source or validity! Sorry Nick forgot your space again hope you can read this!

     

    ICM came out on Thursday, it would be highly unusual for a second poll 2 days later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    ICM poll: Y 54% N 46%

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    ICM poll: Y 54% N 46%

     

    Aye, on whatScotlandthinks as lorenzo notes.

     

    Online methodology.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Does ICM normally use ground or telephone rather than internet?

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Beaker busy getting owned on Twitter for claiming massive BT support in Inverness, highly amusing..

     

    https://twitter.com/dannyalexander/status/510846135846834177

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    I wonder what the Unionists respond with the latest ICM poll. They will be running out of ideas!! :-)

    Edited by pip22
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Does ICM normally use ground or telephone rather than internet?

     

    Been using internet, then did a telephone.

     

    Telephone gave 49% yes the other day

     

    Online reported above looks like an 9% direct 'swing' in a month. Ties in with TNS and yougov huge swings.

     

    Shades of '11 but later this time due to carpet bombing of Scotland by the media?

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Observer Opinium poll released and gives 53% N to 47% Y.

     

    What to trust ? The polls or the pictures ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Observer Opinium poll released and gives 53% N to 47% Y.

     

    What to trust ? The polls or the pictures ?

     

    Nice from opinium. They've never polled Scotland before. Zero experience.

     

    If they're getting a statistical tie, that's great news for Yes.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    What do you make of Curtice stating the weighting to the ICM poll for the poll of polls would be placed at 0.7 SS -

     

    Is this normal for polls with smaller sample size?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    What do you make of Curtice stating the weighting to the ICM poll for the poll of polls would be placed at 0.7 SS -

     

    Is this normal for polls with smaller sample size?

     

    Ignore Curtice.

     

    He's never done that before, e.g. when Yougov use a 1200+ sample size (thus should be 1.2).

     

    BBC pay his wages.

     

    700 is not a small sample. Scotland is 5.3 million. UK is 65 million yet 1k is considered fine.

     

    Yes lead in that poll is not down to sample size. I'll check tables as normal.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    Are we getting a Panelbase tonight?

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