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Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Latest Survation poll for BT:

     

    49 No

    42 Yes

     

    Without DK's 54/46,

     

    A caveat as its been done for BT, I've looked at the question order and there doesn't seem to be any dodgy goings on but personally I prefer to see polls done not for either side.

     

    Just looked at the methodology, bizarre to say the least, getting two responses from the same household even though in that case they weighted them only as 0.5.

     

    It's clear this poll was rushed out to feed into a bounce back narrative for No.

     

    I'd advise Yes to get a poll out quickly showing some good news, even if its let say a bit dodgy, narrative at this point of a campaign can be important.

     

    Quite remarkable to have Yes so high in landline polls.
     
    Interestingly, Survation randomly phone people, get 1000 to respond, and find Labour won 2011.
     
    Lab 39(+7)%
    SNP 38(-8 )%
    Con 13(-1)%
    Lib 9(+1)%
     
    TNS and ICM have similar problems.
     
    Very high non-response rates still.
     
    Meanwhile, the carpet bombing of Scotland by the British state continues to intensify.
     
    We're getting daisy cutters and everything now.
     
    I'd be a little nervous if I was BetterTogether. Why is such a large section of the electorate (and apparently more pro-indy) refusing to be polled.
     
    The carpet bombing may be affecting polls, but in a different way to the result.
     
    I was just thinking to myself that we don't really have any previous referenda globally to compare with in terms of how the media is altering polls as it seems is the case. Quebec is totally useless due to its media being Quebecois francophone with various leanings (autonomy, sovereignty), whereas Scotland's is almost wholly on one side; unionist.
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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters hot summers
  • Location: glasgow

    I read the technicalities and so on paper it's doable.... still a big ask though IMHO to be the first new member state , if accepted, not to have to go down the Euro route (or been seen to attempt to do so..

     

    Earlier this year, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso handed a boost to British Prime Minister David Cameron, who backs the No campaign.

    Barroso said in an interview in February Scotland would have to reapply to join the EU.

    The Commission says that’s the way things stand today.

    “This position, that has not changed, is on the record. It is not our role ten days before the vote to interfere in the campaign with new statements that will be taken up partly here and there,†said Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen, a spokeswoman for the EU executive.

    Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond insists that an independent Scotland would remain inside the EU.

    But Vivien Pertusot of the French Institute of International Relations told Euronews that Scotland “will have to apply for membership.â€

    “The bigger risk is if Scotland arrives with lots of demands: if it applies to the EU – we don’t want the euro, we don’t want to be part of Schengen. That’s going to be extremely difficult for Scotland to have all those opt-outs that it has been enjoying as a UK member.â€

     

     

    Being a member of the euro is a core element of the EU project – as fundamental as committing to the free movement of goods and services, persons and capital. Indeed, the use of a common currency is regarded in EU theory as an aspect of the free movement of capital. Even the two countries that (being members of the EU before the euro was agreed) negotiated opt-outs – the UK and Denmark – have until very recently been treated as "pre-ins" (i.e. countries expected to join the euro eventually) rather than permanent outs.

    Since the euro was agreed to, the EU has not accepted any new member that did not commit to joining. And indeed, over time, when they qualified, the new countries that joined the EU have indeed been joining the euro. The Eurozone had 11 members in 1999, then Greece joined in 2001 (12), Slovenia in 2007 (13), Cyprus and Malta in 2008 (15), Slovakia in 2009 (16), Estonia in 2011 (17), and Latvia in 2014 (18). Lithuania is scheduled to join in January 2015 (19), Croatia in 2019 (20), Hungary in 2020 (21). The Czech Republic aims to join in 2017 and Romania hopes to join in 2020 – making 23 members by 2020. The EU would not allow Scotland to join unless it agreed to join the euro and made good faith attempts to qualify. The SNP's apparent policy of joining saying it would try to qualify for the euro and then never getting around to it would be totally unacceptable to other EU members and would not be accepted..

     

     

    Negotiations will be interesting especially with Spain and others with separatist issues having to all agree.

    hello kar.

     

    Scotland will not be the first member to not be seen to go down the joining the euro route. I dont know if you read it , but  in the link i posted , you will see from the E .U`s own website

     

     

    http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/euro/adoption/who_can_join/index_en.htm   

     

     

    Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Sweden do not currently have a target date for adoption of the euro.

     

    So as far as im aware , if scotland  , upon continuation of eu membership as an independant country would join the above. Croatia , who joined last year , does not as you can see have a target date for joining the euro yet your quote appears to say they are in 2019 so there appears to be a discrepancy there.

     

    as for spain , the spanish government have already said they will not block scotland 

     

     

    “Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo insisted his country would not raise any objection to European Union recognition - if Scottish independence was accepted by Westminster.â€

    And the Edinburgh Agreement commits Westminster to accepting the referendum result.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

     

    Without wishing to detract from the discussions , i will point out  that these issues are practically at the bottom of reasons why scottish voters will vote for or against independance. 
     
    from ss.............
     
     
     
    i will agree there is a lot to negotiate , but i dont agree its a big ask. its extremely do able. 
     
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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    Most hilarious warning from the ''No'' Camp saying Putin will invade Scotland if she votes yes.  :rofl:

    Source?

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    In the interests of clarity about my credentials.Not 15.44 Honours degree in psychology,HNC Business studies,worked in insurance industry for 16 years,ran for Scotland internationally,been in SNP since 18,studied Scottish history and economics my whole adult life.I am technically middle class in every definition.But I believe Scotland is held back by the union.I believe even in my own field the big jobs are kept for London.I don't see why I should have to go to London to get a better job.I have witnessed every large Scottish insurance company being taken over and the jobs quickly moving down south under this fabulous union.There are no real opportunities within my industry other than back room administration.Do I want this to continue no I want change.So when I hear guff bout brass plates being moved after independence it makes me laugh.They decimated my industry years ago.And do you know why this thread makes me curse sometimes.Its not people coming on who are regulars and generally well informed about Scotland.Its the trolls and occasional toe dippers with opinions but no knowledge of politics,economics or Scotland.Frankie Boyle said opinion without knowledge is useless white noise.He said of course celebrities have the right to opinion on Scotland the same way he has the right to opinion on the Hedron collider.In other words its not valid if its just throwing opinion around for the sake of it.The lady who thinks social justice and deprivation is not the UKs fault.Who's fault is it then?We have had 300 years to get it right and Scotland is still thesik man of the UK.In reward for our loyalty Westminster takes our oil gives us some of our own money back and then puts nuclear weapons on the doorstep of our biggest city.That's the crazy world of the Scottish sycophantic loyal UK subjects.Well heres something to consider.The days of bullying and Stockholm syndrome are over.I will not be bullied or intimidated.The UK government and media are corupt but they ain't fooling me.

    Did they not teach you to put a space after a full stop during the course of your degree? It makes it extremely hard to (want to) read your posts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    NickR twitter

     

    BREAKING: "No" camp warns of threat of Putin invading Scotland in event of #YesScotland vote #indyref

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    NickR twitter

     

    BREAKING: "No" camp warns of threat of Putin invading Scotland in event of #YesScotland vote #indyref

    Twitter is your source?? Whose twitter account? Anything just a tad more reliable?

    Also, you said that they had said Putin will invade Scotland in the event of a YES vote. That's not even what the tweet says.

    Edited by NickR
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    In the interests of clarity about my credentials.Not 15.44 Honours degree in psychology,HNC Business studies,worked in insurance industry for 16 years,ran for Scotland internationally,been in SNP since 18,studied Scottish history and economics my whole adult life.I am technically middle class in every definition.But I believe Scotland is held back by the union.I believe even in my own field the big jobs are kept for London.I don't see why I should have to go to London to get a better job.I have witnessed every large Scottish insurance company being taken over and the jobs quickly moving down south under this fabulous union.There are no real opportunities within my industry other than back room administration.Do I want this to continue no I want change.So when I hear guff bout brass plates being moved after independence it makes me laugh.They decimated my industry years ago.And do you know why this thread makes me curse sometimes.Its not people coming on who are regulars and generally well informed about Scotland.Its the trolls and occasional toe dippers with opinions but no knowledge of politics,economics or Scotland.Frankie Boyle said opinion without knowledge is useless white noise.He said of course celebrities have the right to opinion on Scotland the same way he has the right to opinion on the Hedron collider.In other words its not valid if its just throwing opinion around for the sake of it.The lady who thinks social justice and deprivation is not the UKs fault.Who's fault is it then?We have had 300 years to get it right and Scotland is still thesik man of the UK.In reward for our loyalty Westminster takes our oil gives us some of our own money back and then puts nuclear weapons on the doorstep of our biggest city.That's the crazy world of the Scottish sycophantic loyal UK subjects.Well heres something to consider.The days of bullying and Stockholm syndrome are over.I will not be bullied or intimidated.The UK government and media are corupt but they ain't fooling me.

    Just putting out there, but in most parts of life there are more than one cause or party to blame for any given problem. Whilst Westminster are partly to blame for many of the woes we experience now. There are other factors and nations which have directly impacted our way of life. Worth noting that many other first world countries that experience major social problems and deprivation. It's not a UK only problem.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    SS regarding Survation haven't they weighted down the Labour vote to bring it into line with the actual vote? Given how some people can't even remember if they voted in 2011 or who they voted for perhaps the polls are all wrong.

     

    Personally I'm disappointed with recent polls for Yes. After the YouGov poll of last weekend I expected to see momentum show up more in future polls. The ICM which was good for Yes had far too many DK's in it, the rest have shown a static picture.

     

    Theres two polls coming out tonight but I think Yes needs to change the narrative quickly, theres also another troubling aspect here concerning me.

     

    Are we seeing softer Yes's developing, those that were happy to back it because the probability of a win was low but then faced with the prospect that they might win are now developing cold feet because "fear of change" and the risks associated with it are becoming more apparent in their minds.

     

    Just a thought maybe I'm totally wrong....

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    Twitter is your source?? Whose twitter account? Anything just a tad more reliable?

    Also, you said that they had said Putin will invade Scotland in the event of a YES vote. That's not even what the tweet says.

    C'mon now. Just type in ''Scotland Putin'' in twitter for you to see it. It should be there in front of your eyes.

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    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    How can polls which generally survey circa 1100 people be representative of a country which expects over 4M to vote? 

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Did they not teach you to put a space after a full stop during the course of your degree? It makes it extremely hard to (want to) read your posts.

     

    This is the type of post the thread could do without Nick, adds no value. Thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    C'mon now. Just type in ''Scotland Putin'' in twitter for you to see it. It should be there in front of your eyes.

    One tweet - by Patricia McBride. Who is she? Where is this on a slightly more reliable source that someone's twitter account?

     

    Like I say, that one tweet doesn't even say what you say it said.

     

    If this is the level of engagement, argument, and evidence YES supporters use then Scotland's in trouble!

    This is the type of post the thread could do without Nick, adds no value. Thanks.

     

    I would say that if he adds a space as a result of my post then it will have added a lot of value.

     

    Or do you disagree that no spaces makes it much harder work to read? Serious question.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Perhaps you might want to stop tit for tat Nick.I wasn't aware my grammar was being analysed along with my intellect!

    Have you heard of typos Nick?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    SS regarding Survation haven't they weighted down the Labour vote to bring it into line with the actual vote? Given how some people can't even remember if they voted in 2011 or who they voted for perhaps the polls are all wrong.

     

     

     

    Yes, of course. That only corrects a low respondent problem if not much weighting is required and/or sometimes you are up-weighting a group, sometimes down, i.e. you have no real problem reaching them on average.

     

    However, a pollster should be asking why quasi-random sampling can't get the SNP comfortably ahead in 2011 recall in unweighted bases. They won by 16 points overall in a landslide and are a popular party of government. Why then are their voters so tricky to find. Well, if they are refusing to be polled...

     

    This is not just a Survation problem, but one all pollsters are having trouble with, even if only ICM have actually state they are a aware of it ('10% flatly refusing to respond').

     

    Glasgow today I believe.

     

    10698434_864839143526997_580659625276986

     

     

     

    While the official no campaign hold a pro-union / British anti-catholic / anti-Irish march through Edinburgh. Thankfully it seems to have passed off peacefully.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    Perhaps you might want to stop tit for tat Nick.I wasn't aware my grammar was being analysed along with my intellect!

    Have you heard of typos Nick?

     

    This is nothing to do with grammar or typos. Seriously, it would be a LOT easier to read your posts if you added a space after each full stop. It's a genuine point. Could you not try?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    How can polls which generally survey circa 1100 people be representative of a country which expects over 4M to vote? 

    They do their best but are not infallible. I think it would be wrong for Yes supporters to go down the Romney USA road of believing every poll is wrong. Pollsters in here are like us snow lovers regarding NWP when theres a chance of snow! lol Models that were crap are now lauded because they show a chance of snow, the model we used to like is suddenly having a reliability problem when it goes against that.

     

    Generally polls will converge close to a vote so that we don't see such variation, you have to take into account margin for error of course. Weighting and screening who will definitely vote help to reduce errors but theres no perfect poll.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    If we wanted a global example to work with, we'd need:

     

    - A small country ruled by a larger one.

    - Small country threatening to go independent

    - Large country heavily in control of media in the small country

    - Almost no media outlets pro-independence; all largely against

    - Large country able to put pressure on businesses etc

    - Large country threatening small country

    - 3/4 main parties in small country backing stance of same party in large country, i.e. against independence.

     

    It would be interesting if we had an example like that and found:

     

    - Analyses of internet traffic said Yes vote

    - Analyses of social media said Yes vote

    - Canvassing said Yes vote

    - Scenes on the streets suggested Yes vote

    - Official polls said (narrow) No vote but closed at last minute from long term clear No lead.

    - High non-response rates in official polls, particularly from the 'native' (in this case Scottish born / natIDing) population

     

    Which is what we have right now.

     

    Note both Survation and ICM apparently used call centres south of the border which may have had an influence.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Another interesting little nugget from the last Panelbase.

     

    Regardless of the outcome, do you think that deciding Scotland's future in a democratic referendum is something that the people of Scotland can be proud of?
     
    69% Yes
    15% No
     
    The 15% was comprised essentially entirely of No voters
     
    This will be the 17% 'British first' in natID I'd suspect.
     
    Scottish people proud of the referendum, British people not basically.
     
    So I think we can put any talk of 'terribly divisive' to bed. Just 15% not proud and they'd say that anyway as they never wanted it.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

     

    If we wanted a global example to work with, we'd need:
     
    - A small country ruled by a larger one.
    - Small country threatening to go independent
    - Large country heavily in control of media in the small country
    - Almost no media outlets pro-independence; all largely against
    - Large country able to put pressure on businesses etc
    - Large country threatening small country
    - 3/4 main parties in small country backing stance of same party in large country, i.e. against independence.
     
    It would be interesting if we had an example like that and found:
     
    - Analyses of internet traffic says said vote
    - Analyses of social media says said vote
    - Canvassing said Yes vote
    - Scenes on the streets suggested Yes vote
    - Official polls said (narrow) No vote but closed at last minute from long term clear No lead.
    - High non-response rates in official polls, particularly from the 'native' (in this case Scottish born / natIDing) population
     
    Which is what we have right now.
     
    Note both Survation and ICM apparently used call centres south of the border which may have had an influence.

     

    I think the internet has helped dilute some of the MSM especially in younger people, however in the key stronghold of No in that over 65s less so. Interesting to see your comments re Survation and ICM. I would say that would negate the results if the majority of interviewers did not have a Scottish accent, whilst it might be easier for No's and English born No's to tell the truth it would put a bias on Yes supporters. The increase in DK's especially in the ICM poll may well then be Scots not wishing to give an answer to an English accented speaker, more likely the split would be in favour of Yes.

     

    In this type of vote with a possible "judgement factor" its imperative pollsters reduce every variable possible.

     

    It's akin to getting only male interviewers polling women on sensitive issues, you wouldn't do that there and so the same IMO applies here.

     

    Is there anyway to find out what the interviewer situation was SS? ask one of your contacts!

     

    Not to be disparaging to the south but the bias would likely show up strongest with interviewers here, perhaps less so with Geordies and people from the north.

     

    It's really all to do with pressure to answer a certain way, equally has anyone wondered why you often have more call centres in the north, this is because companies researched the accents, northern accents especially Geordies were seen as friendlier and warmer.

     

    Sorry my fellow southerners!

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Looking at the table from the Survation poll earlier, wrt regional VI and comparing with the pics today.

     

    One of them is wrong...

     

    Wonder how many of the ' missing million' who I am confident will not be polled by anyone were out in the crowds today.

     

    post-7292-0-56884100-1410630730_thumb.jppost-7292-0-37546400-1410630731_thumb.jp

     

    These pictures are pretty astonishing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    One tweet - by Patricia McBride. Who is she? Where is this on a slightly more reliable source that someone's twitter account?

     

    Like I say, that one tweet doesn't even say what you say it said.

     

    If this is the level of engagement, argument, and evidence YES supporters use then Scotland's in trouble!

     

    I would say that if he adds a space as a result of my post then it will have added a lot of value.

     

    Or do you disagree that no spaces makes it much harder work to read? Serious question.

    I just basically saying the same thing. Threats from Russia is no different than invasion. Any threat from Russia is an act of war. Look how Russia attack an civilian plane. That is obviously a threat.

     

    Whoever say this, even she from the no side is a lie.

    Edited by pip22
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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    I think the internet has helped dilute some of the MSM especially in younger people, however in the key stronghold of No in that over 65s less so. Interesting to see your comments re Survation and ICM. I would say that would negate the results if the majority of interviewers did not have a Scottish accent, whilst it might be easier for No's and English born No's to tell the truth it would put a bias on Yes supporters. The increase in DK's especially in the ICM poll may well then be Scots not wishing to give an answer to an English accented speaker, more likely the split would be in favour of Yes.

     

    In this type of vote with a possible "judgement factor" its imperative pollsters reduce every variable possible.

     

    It's akin to getting only male interviewers polling women on sensitive issues, you wouldn't do that there and so the same IMO applies here.

     

    Is there anyway to find out what the interviewer situation was SS? ask one of your contacts!

    I think it's just a very hard situation to judge accurately. 

    YES need to hope that the majority of those DKs are YES. 

    Why did i lie to that nice old man today? because i didn't want confrontation/confidence.

    Why did i stand up so strongly for my friend the previous day with the YES campaigner? because we'd spend several hours in a pub. Confidence

     

    I was talking to a few friends a couple weeks ago who were all no bar one. Out of the five of them, instead of 4/1 NO/YES, they said if someone asks them 3 said they'd say DK, one said depends what side they're on and one said they'd say NO. so 4/1 becomes 1/ and 4 DK.

     

    No wonder it's a difficult situation, and pollsters are getting some inconsistent results... just my two pence worth :)

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Having worked in polling generally you would find a good mix of people, so it should have been possible to use interviewers that would least impact the poll however I would be shocked if a polling organisation didn't think that the interviewers accent could skew the study.

     

    Given the amount of preparation that goes into any poll it would be utterly stupid to overlook what could be a glaring error.

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