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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    It's You Gov

    For the non initiated this is the most bias easterly 12z there is.

    It's not worked out for them..

    Yes at this point is inevitable, hence the posts from Murdoch and subordinate earlier

    The appreciation of the vote now is irrevocable.

    Interesting times..

    I like the analogy haha.

    6z GFS is a bit more biased though?

    Where's Steve Muir when you need him? Hibernation probably...

    Anyway, back in topic

    Would devo max be enough to save the day? MS has been saying this all along. I too thought they'd give devo max when polls tightened but this is very late in the day.

    We'll have to see...

    Are there more polls coming out soon? I thought ICM was tonight but maybe not. Must be some more soon

    Edited by SW Saltire
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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    By that post alone, I can sense that you're in the no camp, correct?

    What gives that impression?

    I'm at a complete loss as to what I'll vote at the start of next week (postal vote) I reckon proper devo max would be enough for me personally but still not enough for Scotland overall.

    If no further significant promises then I'm unsure but I doubt I'm swaying more to no than yes put it that way. My sister had started to have second thoughts about voting yes and I convinced her to just go for it. So I fail to see how my post which you quoted above has implied all of that to you...?

    EDIT: I did say "save the day" so fair enough. Clearly, I'm still in two minds.

    Edited by SW Saltire
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    I like the analogy haha.

    6z GFS is a bit more biased though?

    Where's Steve Muir when you need him? Hibernation probably...

    Anyway, back in topic

    Would devo max be enough to save the day? MS has been saying this all along. I too thought they'd give devo max when polls tightened but this is very late in the day.

    We'll have to see...

    Are there more polls coming out soon? I thought ICM was tonight but maybe not. Must be some more soon

    Although late on a Saturday this aint ont 18z pub run anomaly

     

    One would even say this was expected.

     

    Steve is at 0 m asl as far as I can tell but a fan of Scotland so who knows, I like Steve - his mad snow posts, but a huge caveat is they are  not all seeing, nor is Steve all respected, as much as I am a fan, many others are not, he is too binary.

     

    Hopefully that is saying enough without saying.. well enough..

     

    No are in trouble.

     

    I however have no doubts turning this to words, yes have been severely understated / underestimated.

     

    Devo max - pfft ( Steve 000 asl equivalent ) nope

     

    The rest - well as SW said its game on - it's 18th for real vote but wow a lot is sorted already.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Translated - Yes are winning right now - with no hope of no getting near them.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    Although late on a Saturday this aint ont 18z pub run anomaly

    One would even say this was expected.

    Steve is at 0 m asl as far as I can tell but a fan of Scotland so who knows, I like Steve - his mad snow posts, but a huge caveat is they are not all seeing, nor is Steve all respected, as much as I am a fan, many others are not,

    he is too binary.

    Hopefully that is saying enough without saying.. well enough..

    No are in trouble.

    I however have no doubts turning this to words, yes have been severely understated / underestimated.

    Devo max - pfft ( Steve 000 asl equivalent ) nope

    The rest - well as SW said its game on - it's 18th for real vote but wow a lot is sorted already.

    Ohhhh gossip Lorenzo ;)

    Nah, but he provides evidence for his views and frankly I want to hear about snowmagedon so I don't care. It's all great fun.

    I prefer his views to that of IB... I say no more.

    I've lurked on this forum for almost 4 years now since I can barely read a weather chart if I'm honest...

    The game is pretty much up i'd say. Wait on a couple more posts to be unequivocally sure but then it'd get the bubbly or is it pimms o'clock? Don't tell me it's Bucky :L

    Edited by SW Saltire
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Conversation across the Uk? Not much good to the homeless nor maybe those now slightly more reliant on say food banks etc.

    Sorry, yes let's totally ignore the facts and pretend everything is all ok. All several odd million suffering the cost of living crisis. Yes, even those who are working for a living.

    I support Yes but frankly view all politicians the same that includes those in Holyrood. People need to vote Yes for independence not Yes to get a sudden influx of nice moral politicians because that isn't going to happen.

     

    Call me cynical but I don't buy all this socialist utopia nonsense banded about, it sounds good but Scots will have to pay for it probably in higher taxes. Good on them if they're willing to do that but people are going to be disappointed if they expect too much.

     

    The whole point IMO of this referendum is not getting a great government but being your own nation.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Ohhhh gossip Lorenzo ;)

    Nah, but he provides evidence for his views and frankly I want to hear about snowmagedon so I don't care. It's all great fun.

    I prefer his views to that of IB... I say no more.

    I've lurked on this forum for almost 4 years now since I can barely read a weather chart if I'm honest...

    The game is pretty much up i'd say. Wait on a couple more posts to be unequivocally sure but then it'd get the bubbly or is it pimms o'clock? Don't tell me it's Bucky :L

     No gossip just equating thought with fact

     

    SW - seriously I do not believe for a minute that this vote is dead.

     

    Although I thought as much earlier with Murdoch doing his thing and the inevitable sway, there is an 'unseen majority'

     

    Lets face it - it truly is on a knife edge. 

     

    Granted from my personal perspective I would say this is a done deal but not naive enough to think otherwise.

     

    Momentum is with yes, hugely so I would say, however no enough to force a recollection.

     

    Way I see it unless we get a 70:30 to yes then this debate will continue regardless of result..

     

    The numbers i mention aren't without cause by 18 Sept 70:30 is on the cards..

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Therefore, until someone maybe breaks the 'cynicism' or impression thereof, we are back to square one, correct?

    I understand your point, maybe Scots will break this and by being active after this referendum will not allow Holyrood to do what Westminster has. But theres one thing having that passion for a referendum, another continuing this after that.

     

    Is voter apathy just the preserve of the rUK, hopefully it's not.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    No's on my timeline conceding

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Ohhhh gossip Lorenzo ;)

    Nah, but he provides evidence for his views and frankly I want to hear about snowmagedon so I don't care. It's all great fun.

    I prefer his views to that of IB... I say no more.

    I've lurked on this forum for almost 4 years now since I can barely read a weather chart if I'm honest...

    The game is pretty much up i'd say. Wait on a couple more posts to be unequivocally sure but then it'd get the bubbly or is it pimms o'clock? Don't tell me it's Bucky :L

     

     

    BBBBBUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

    Quite incredible to see YouGov of all polls show a Yes lead for the first time since the referendum campaigns began a couple of years ago. The momentum is very much with Yes as they have led a very well run and coordinated and POSITIVE campaign. Just over a month ago No led by 11 points and for yes to be in the lead right now is stunning but not entirely surprising as Better Together has been a car crash of a campaign and a national embarrassment. I think we can do this now but now is not the time to be complacent and it's important to keep the momentum going and hopefully we'll see a decisive outcome for yes in just under two weeks time. As an English-born Scot I've always been favourable towards independence but certainly in the last month or so my feelings towards independence have been consolidated and enhanced and I emphatically believe that yes is the right way forward for our nation. Certainly the coming period is going to be absolutely fascinating, exciting and

    Historic regardless of the outcome, and if we don't get a yes vote on the 18th, then I think independence would be inevitable in the future through the legacy of this debate and the genie is out of the bottle and something will eventually have to give.

    I see that David Cameron is staying at Balmoral for the weekend and he'll be having breakfast with the Queen in the morning. He'll probably try to talk politics with her majesty but I presume one shall respond with 'eat your cereal Mr Cameron'.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Wrote this on facebook, my daughter liked it so thought I would share

     

    I am a Yes for my children's future I want them to enjoy pure democracy within Scotland for when they put an X on a paper it truly means everything, not just 'something' - an esoteric promise.

     

    We are a proud, brilliant, rich, clever, nation. Create the change - let other's take inspiration again from our thoughts, actions, words and genius X

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Good morning Scotland today you wake up a nation rather than a region.

     

    Hows that sound?

     

    19'09'14

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Wrote this on facebook, my daughter liked it so thought I would share

     

    I am a Yes for my children's future I want them to enjoy pure democracy within Scotland for when they put an X on a paper it truly means everything, not just 'something' - an esoteric promise.

     

    We are a proud, brilliant, rich, clever, nation. Create the change - let other's take inspiration again from our thoughts, actions, words and genius X

     

    Pure democracy? Will the Agora be centred on the memorial to Scott or Burns? :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Note on the panelbase which is surprisingly a little behind the Yougov.

     

    We are missing a lot of polls. We know they were done but not reported.

     

    It is perfectly possible that a previous, unpublished panelbase showed parity or a Yes lead, but MoE has given the appearance of a slip since then. Polls can be equal then 6 points apart yet nothing has changed; simply sampling precision error (not accuracy, but precision).

     

    It wouldn't make sense for Yes to publish the previous one in case that happened and now that it maybe has, would still not make sense. Instead, running with 48% Yes means that number looks solid like the last published one and ties in nicely with Yougov for knife edge stuff with the underdog gaining ground.

     

    As Lorenzo says, this is far from over, but Yes can smile and hope.

     

    Note the Yes surge is evident in an SNP surge in the Scottish subset of UK Yougov Westminster polls which follow a different sampling and weighting methodology. That would add weight to what's being seen in Yougov Scottish polls.

     

    79% Scottish Born (unweighted base) in the Scottish poll; still a little low but much better than e.g. 74% that they were getting in the past. That might be related to movement; our missing Scots answering?

     

    --

     

    Yougov by sex:

     

    Men

    54(+6)Y

    43(-3)N

     

    Women

    42(+5)Y

    47(-3)N

     

    Yes comfortably ahead in all age groups bar over 60s, however showing a shift there too:

     

    36(+7)Y

    59(-4)N

     

    ---

     

    Other stuff from Yougov:

     

    Do you think the Yes Scotland campaign so far has been positive or negative?
    60% Mostly postive
    30% Mostly negative
     
     
    Better Together
    31% Mostly positive
    60% Mostly negative
     
    Pretty decisive in terms of who's churning out the scare stories.
     
    ----
     
    Whether or not you personally agree with it, how well or badly do you think the Yes Scotland campaign have made the positive case for an independent Scotland?
    67% Well
    28% Badly
     
    Better together for part of the UK
    36% Well
    58% Badly
     
     
    EDIT
     
    Not this is all with a big Kellner correction too. His imagined group of 'We love Labour but voted SNP in 2011' has been up-weighted from 5% to 10% of the sample.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Not sure of what to make of the news reported earlier in this thread that the three main UK parties are in urgent discussions to offer more devolution the the Scottish parliament. What does this say to the average Scottish voter?

    Just a thought, one way I suppose, is parliament pushes through urgent and permanent new devolved powers to Scotland (devo-max) before the vote and promises reform to the HOL to an elected second chamber....pure fantasy I know, very big resistance to HOL. This federal agreement would also have to be applied to Wales and NI in the near future too.

     

    I know what I am saying is fantasy and people will still be angered by the arrogance and complacency shown towards them by the UK parties and MSM.

     

    I read an article yesterday or the day before about the fall out for the rUK in the event of a yes vote. People are just waking up to the idea that the rUK would be forced into constitutional reform too, as 90% of the remaining electorate are residing in one of the three remaining countries...Interesting times ahead. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    Imagine that, instead of the proposed two-option referendum on independence there was a three-option referendum, offering people the choice of full Scottish independence, increased devolution to the Scottish Parliament or maintaining the Scottish Parliament's existing powers. How would you then vote?
     
    42(+9) Scottish independence
    36(nc) Increased devolution
    14(-8 ) Maintain existing powers
     
    78% is an all time high for indy+devo more/max
     
    Too late for max though. 7 years too late. You can't say no for 7 years then at the last minute expect to be believed.
     
    Net trust ratings for those who'd supposedly deliver it:
    -43 Miliband
    -50 Cameron
     
    ---
     
    EDIT
     
    Herald reporting what I was saying the other day about BT telling EU nationals they'll be deported if its a yes.

     
    Polish workers 'told by No activists: you would have to leave an indy Scotland'
     
    YES campaigners have demanded an apology from Better Together amid claims that No activists warned Polish and other EU nationals that they would be forced to leave the country if Scotland became independent.

     

     
     
    That really is disgusting. 
     
     
     
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    The main reason why I believe YES are comforatbly ahead is the disparity between gender in all polls.

    54/43 compared to 42/47.

    Maybe Women are more hesitant but I can't see how come September the 18th it will be like that. 52/48 would be nearer the mark if say men were 55/45 ie just a couple % lower for YES.

    Deeming Salmond to be arrogant and being more risk adverse

    Perhaps saying it is over is slightly OTT. However, unless something of a game changer (which could be devo max) comes along then I can't see anything but a YES win... Simple.

    Edit: I see SS's post above. You think devo max is categorically not enough? The poll you highlight shows it would be though?...

    Edited by SW Saltire
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Edit: I see SS's post above. You think devo max is categorically not enough? The poll you highlight shows it would be though?...

     

    The question is whether people would believe something cobbled together at the last minute under duress when that's been refused for years.

     

    I doubt it looking at the ridiculously low levels of trust in those making promises.

     

    Cameron

    23% Trust

    73% Don't trust

     

    Miliband

    23% Trust

    67% Don't trust

     

    Na.

     

    Oh and for the 'popular heavyweight' (© Scottish MSM) Broon

     

    32% Trust

    58% Don't trust

     

    All got negative ratings, but Salmond and Sturgeon only modestly so (unique to 'No friendly' Yougov) - unionists really negative however. 

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    The question is whether people would believe something cobbled together at the last minute under duress when that's been refused for years.

     

    I doubt it looking at the ridiculously low levels of trust in those making promises.

     

    Cameron

    23% Trust

    73% Don't trust

     

    Miliband

    23% Trust

    67% Don't trust

     

    Na.

     

    Oh and for the 'popular

    heavyweight' (© Scottish MSM) Broon

     

    32% Trust

    58% Don't trust

     

    All got negative ratings, but Salmond and Sturgeon only modestly so (unique to 'No friendly' Yougov) - unionists really negative however.

    I see what you are saying. However in a tight race, this could be enough. 55/45 could be where we are at (Lorenzo's prediction that 70:30 is possible seems a little high to me).

    Is devo max enough to claw back 5-10% of those who are leaning YES or just newly YES, quite possibly IMO.

    This is all speculation.

    In an already unique and umpredictable referendum, to throw devo max in would be putting the cat amongst the pigeons. Very hard to call.

    Of course, yes will say it's desperation (and it is) but it will appeal to voters, after all it was wanted 3 years ago.

    If this is being rumoured:

    Firstly - How much substance to these claims?

    Secondly - as you previously surmised from a lack of canvassing etc from better together, they knew this was coming. They perhaps know yes is even a few % ahead.

    All making a very interesting last 11 days

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    I think some may be getting a little carried away. Yes, it's quite a shift for a poll to finally be showing Yes ahead. But it is one poll, it is by the slenderest of leads and the changes are still within the margin of error. Just a couple of weeks before GE2010, YouGov showed a poll that had the Lib Dems winning on 34%, with CON/LAB on 31/26% - which of course was nonsense. This could well serve as a warning call, and may represent "false momentum".

     

    Panelbase (who tend to show favourable Yes figures) have No ahead by 4%, so the YouGov poll looks rather isolated right now. There is a TNS-BMRB poll out on Wednesday, so let's see what that shows.

     

    Don't want to come across as a wet blanket, but it's one poll, and it's not supported by other figures just yet.

     

    Edit: Taking this from Mike Smithson's blog at politicalbetting, here is the difference between the final polling figures and the actual NO lead in the AV referendum, doesn't look great for YouGov, I know it's a totally different question, but it's still interesting viewing:

     

    AV+referendum+final+polls+accuracy.jpg

    Edited by Nick L
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    7 years ago SW.

     

    2007 saw 40% go to indy parties with a majority for indy+devo max/federalism (SNP, Green, Margo, Solidarity, SSP + Libs and also to an extent Labour).

     

    That's when Devo max appeared as the SNP et al. proposed it as a second option on a ballot. Libs could have carried it but refused. 

     

    And we all know what happened next.

     

    Oh, and the rumours are not that the unionist parties are proposing devo max, but saying wee Scots can all sit down together and have a chat about what powers we might want. Maybe develop committees, take minutes etc. Have a cup of tea during breaks.

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/06/scots-radical-new-deal-save-the-union?CMP=twt_gu

     

    The plan, in the event of a no vote, is that people from all parts of Scottish society – rather than just politicians – would be invited to take part in a Scottish conference or convention that would decide on further large-scale transfers of power from London to Holyrood.

     

    Nick - your best comparisons would be:

    1979 Devolution referendum

    1997 Devolution referendum

     

    And to an extent:

     

    2007 Scottish election

    2011 Scottish election

     

    Of course we can't say Yes will win, but historically, when it comes to constitutional referenda in Scotland...

     

    As Martin Boon at ICM said, the 10% who have been flatly refusing to answer iref polls will likely be the deciding group. This group appears to be Scottish born and 'Scottish only / Scottish not British' in natID (the group most pro-indy). They are the wildcard as they (largely) were ahead of 2011. In that case though, they started answering polls in the last few weeks.

     

    EDIT

     

    I'm having a look, but there seems to be evidence in yougov unweighted base that the rising Yes is due to more Yes people responding to the request to be polled as much as a shift in opinion of those who have historically been responding. That would include me incidentally; i.e. now responding.

    Edited by scottish skier
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