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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    What is the situation regarding the church-state relationship assuming a yes vote? Will we see a wholly secular independent Scotland without any state privilege for a particular church or religion?

     

    At the moment the Church of Scotland’s position as a national church, with quasi-established status (although in a weaker form than the Church of England’s) is constitutionally defined by an Act passed in 1921 by the United Kingdom Parliament which would cease to apply after independence.

     

    At the moment, the CoS has no official role in terms of Holyrood, nor has it been proposed by any major party as an official church for an iScotland.

     

    Highly unlikely to happen as people wouldn't vote for that in terms of a constitution; not enough practising either it or any religion. Certainly the SNP wouldn't go for that; it's a rainbow of religions (it is a yellow flag waving liberal party after all).

     

    Traditional church associations with parties were Scottish Unionists / Torys more Church of Scotland, with Catholics favouring the Labour party. Something both political parties used to stir up division / sectarianism with in the past to both gain votes and divide on the issue of Scottish independence (SNP were apparently both 'papists' and 'Orange' at the same time depending on whether you were talking to Tories or Labour, although I suppose this was actually true given they are a 'broad church'). 

     

    The Scottish Secular Society is a firm backer of independence.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    That's quite a rant by Alan Cochrane in the Telegraph! That sort of incrimination against one's own side before polling day is usually the sign of a side that knows the game is up and it's slipped beyond them.

    Edited by skifreak
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    From the Independent, never has a newspaper title seemed so juxtaposed..

     

    This article to me is massively ironic, the inherent complete and utter bias a probable contributor to the position the author details.

     

    Losing Much ??

     

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11078776/Nows-the-time-to-stand-up-and-be-counted.html

     

    And here's a quote from that article, says it all:

     

     

     

    What they need to do is have a good look at themselves in the mirror and ask: “What are you doing to save the Union. To keep Scotland in the UK and, perhaps most of all, to wipe that smug grin off Alex Salmond’s face?â€

     

    What a sad way to look at something so important. This simply serves to back-up what has been said for a while, a lot of the No voters seem to be focussed on their hatred of Alex Salmond.

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Looks like a very active day out on the respective campaign trails.

     

    These caught the eye. The return of Spiting Image !

    post-7292-0-19435000-1410016499_thumb.pn

     

    Healthy Flashmob 

     

    post-7292-0-64489600-1410016486_thumb.jp

    Edited by lorenzo
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Some thoughts on forthcoming (apparently) polls before things become fever pitch.

     

    So, rumours of polls looking 'good' for Yes...but who is the main culprit behind these? Well, No campaign people and journalists so we should be a little careful here.

     

    If the polls looked good for No, then I very much doubt the No campaign would be spreading such rumours, but instead, the historical 'Looking forward to the polls coming out soon' type tweets would abound etc.

     

    Therefore, I'd suggest we might not be looking at anything drastic, but a possible shift further to Yes. Clearly enough to make No nervous, but by bigging up the potential Yes gain and so getting Yes people on social media all excited, they can then play down the results.

     

    If we take 2011, for which there are many polling parallels, at least half the final SNP lead over labour came in the last 2 weeks with 80% of it in the final three; or at least that's what polls saw. Given the sparsity of polls for this much more important event (at the time nobody thought an SNP majority was possible so polling was hardly to the max) over the same period, particularly from different pollsters, it's difficult to make a comparison now. We also, saw, e.g. the most regular pollster Yougov showing Labour eating into the SNP's lead considerably in its last 3 polls, which was the opposite of what happened. We had some quite wild apparent swings back to Labour too when considering the results of two different polls against each other as the media love to incorrectly do.

     

    Fieldwork for any polls being reported overnight for papers tomorrow must have been already complete by late Friday. Given fieldwork normally takes 2-3 days for an online pollster, then they would be just at the t-14 timeframe, possibly a little before.

     

    So, if we get a Yougov like the last one within 1%, then that's great for Yes. If we get a panelbase with Yes a little higher, even parity, then that's great for Yes. Even an apparent little 1% slip in yougov wouldn't necessarily be bad as there is always MoE.

     

    Anything else a bonus for Yes. If you are in a tight race - which at face value it seems we are - then the campaign with momentum should be the more confident one.

     

    Also, I'll be keen to see if there is any signs our '10% of Scottish born / nati-IDing people who are point blank refusing to answer polls' are still doing so or not and whether that is impacting. If they are still doing that and continue to do so, our final result may be quite different from polls. Likely to favour Yes.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Satan himself dropping hints about it..

    post-7292-0-34512400-1410017572_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Satan himself dropping hints about it..

    attachicon.gifYou Gov poll.PNG

     

    Which ties in with what I'm saying.

     

    I wouldn't expect yougov (for the UK Times) to show a lead for Yes, but a little further tightening is possible.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Which ties in with what I'm saying.

     

    I wouldn't expect yougov (for the UK Times) to show a lead for Yes, but a little further tightening is possible.

     

    It's getting more interesting, this from the Managing Editor of the Sun.

    post-7292-0-60211600-1410019634_thumb.pn

     

    BT supporter already unhappy / concerned with potential influence of the Murdoch Empire... Had to chuckle at this considering the media position from MSM across this whole campaign !

    post-7292-0-89670200-1410019687_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Yes North East Fife â€@YesNEF 17m

    @yesfifeyes @ABetterScotland @yesscotland #indyRef Great result coming in from Methil - 1,100 doors knocked - YES 58%, No 27%, DK15%.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Neill â€@Indy_Nelly 2m

    Hearing latest Sun/Times/Yougov poll has Yes 47%, No 46%, DK 7% = Yes 51% No 49% excluding DKs. This is happening... #indyref  

     

    hopefully its true

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Aye, stop it BUS.

     

    I'm trying to finish a report (man what a backlog two weeks on hols can create at a busy time - only now catching up finally).

     

    I'd really be surprised if Yougov had Yes ahead. An bit of a gap closure sure, but ahead?

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    It's Saturday night and I am excited about a You Gov Poll coming out.

     

    WTF is wrong with me !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    It's Saturday night and I am excited about a You Gov Poll coming out.

     

    WTF is wrong with me !!

     

    There's nothing wrong with that at all. Perfectly normal. What are you trying to say?

     

    :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    It's Saturday night and I am excited about a You Gov Poll coming out.

     

    WTF is wrong with me !!

     

    You meant to say, "I'm excited about the football...will take a wee look at the polling later too".

     

    Edit: Why on earth did I think the football was tonight??

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    After seeing the tweets and pictures on @indyref comparing attendances on yes stalls against no stalls and historical meeting attendances from both parties...never understood why yes weren't ahead at the polls.

     

    If our 10% 'flatly refuse to be polled' (according to ICM) people didn't do that, Yes might well be. All we know is that they are Scottish born and apparently also Scottish only in natID; or at least that's the groups that pollster seem to be struggling to get to answer polls.

     

    Also, if a group are flatly refusing for some reason, you might imagine those that are may be being a little economical with the truth. Apparent movements recently might be down to changes in response rates and soft Nos owning up. We've not enough polls nor data to tell.

     

    I hear rumours that we might see an ICM and a panelbase too.

     

    I'm not expecting Yes ahead, but statistical parity would be great two weeks ahead (in terms of fieldwork) and give Yes a boost, particularly if Yougov has come on board.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    I fear I'm not going to get anything like as much work done as I should over the next two weeks! lol!

    Lets just say that I'm just lucky I've not been overly busy for the last couple of months.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    here is how that online poll thing I have been checking is currently

     

    In FK5, 91% of 1791 voters said yes.

    In the broader FK area, 86% said yes.

    Our current UK average is 84% yes (but in Scotland, it's 79%)!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    No 'looking forward to the new polls' tweet from Blair McDougall so far.

     

    A normally reliable indicator of what's coming.

     

    ---

     

    And report complete.  :) 

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Had a look on Political Betting website over the poll rumours, note a couple of mentions that canvas returns from Shetland show over 50% of those canvassed are backing YES.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     

    Way too late for that.

     

    7 years too late.

     

    An offer made in 2007 would have been possibly quite trusted.

     

    An offer made in the aftermath of 2011 less so, but still listened too.

     

    An offer just ~12 days before?

    Edited by scottish skier
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