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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    Who said that?

     

    I'd also suggest you'd find supporters and members of other poticial parties which support indy (Greens, Labour for Indy, SSP, Libs for Indy, solidarity etc) would disagree with you on them taking the SNPs lead.

     

    Margo (RIP) and Jim are classic examples.

     

    Northern rab at least intimated it, but it was more of a general statement on my part.

     

    I'm not saying other political parties follow the SNP lead... I was referring to the grassroots organisations you mentioned.

     

    Other political parties generally do the same thing, of course, but independently.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     The Tories for letting their representation wither on the vine, they had 50% of the Scottish 60 years ago! 

     

    The best the Tories have ever managed in Scotland is 38% just after the initial merger in 1965 with support dropping from then on, notably following the complete end of the Scottish unionists as an independent force in terms of regional organisation by 1977 (London in full control).

     

    You  are thinking of the (Scottish) Unionist Party which was a completely independent Scottish party when it was successful in post-war consensus Scotland. Slightly right of centre wet Tory type. Started merging with the English conservatives 1965 and gone by 1977 as noted.

     

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unionist_Party_(Scotland)

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    What if....

    ...the margin between yes and no is less than 10% say 53% no and 47% yes?

    Will that end the independence debate? I don't think it will, it is not decisive, I can see another referendum in a decade or so time if the SNP are in power despite talk that this is a one off.

    Peculiar things referenda because if it were 53% Yes, that would kill off the debate, the Yes people will say they have got their majority mandate and go ahead with independence but the other way around with 53% No, the Yes will still argue their cause and will want another referendum a few years down the line after they have "educated" the populace.

    ......the margin is just a couple of % points between the two? A huge decision to be made with a bare majority.

    .....the vote is No, should Scottish MPs be still allowed to vote on issues that don't affect them, the West Lothian Question? That has got to be resolved for me, we saw this10 years ago with tuition fees when the government of the day won because their Scottish members voted for it even though it didn't affect their constituents.

    the vote is Yes, surely you can't have a general election in 2015? You would have Scottish MPs who will then disappear in 2016. You have to have another election in 2016.

    Talk about Scotland having a government enforced on them has been offset somewhat by devolution. However, there is a democratic deficit, Scotland and Northern Ireland have their parliaments, Wales their assembly. Where's England's? England hasn't got an assembly nor it's own parliament.

    Labour and Tory have got a lot to answer for allowing this constitutional mess to happen. The Tories for letting their representation wither on the vine, they had 50% of the Scottish 60 years ago! Labour claiming that devolution would lance the independence boil in 1997. It did no such thing, they have taken the Scottish Labour vote for granted.

     

    100% with you on the West Lothian Question (such a placid name for something which should really anger the English/Welsh). Having said that the influence of Scottish MPs on Westminster has been shown to be small over time, however this is really no excuse for something which should have been solved quickly and easily many years ago.

     

    As for Labour and Tory creating the constitutional mess, again, you're spot on. The SNP have simply offered a strong and popular alternative.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     

    I'm not saying other political parties follow the SNP lead... I was referring to the grassroots organisations you mentioned.

     

     

    Grassroots contains voters of all persuasion. 

     

    I imagine e.g. Radical Independence would be rather annoyed at the insinuation they take the SNP lead.

     

    Are English Scots for Yes a SNP-led organisation?

     

    What about Women for Independence - another group of devout Salmond followers?

     

    The swings seen in polls recently have come from Labour voters. Are they taking the SNP lead?

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Any polls out today, as it seems weird that so close to the referendum that polling data is non existent...is this normal?  Surely, the public need to know what the mood of the voters is taking the country. I am genuinely worried about democracy here and no conspiracy theories intended.   

     

    As I understand it the You Gov poll is to be released in the Sunday Times tomorrow, story will break this evening.

     

    Next Survation poll will be released in Daily Record on Thursday 11 September.

     

    Not sure where the mythical panelbase poll has vanished to...!

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    Grassroots contains voters of all persuasion. 

     

    I imagine e.g. Radical Independence would be rather annoyed at the insinuation they take the SNP lead.

     

    Are English Scots for Yes a SNP-led organisation?

     

    What about Women for Independence - another group of devout Salmond followers?

     

    The swings seen in polls recently have come from Labour voters. Are they taking the SNP lead?

     

    I don't deny there are exceptions. As a general rule, however, I think the main ones tend to use SNP arguments.

    What have individual voters got to do with this? I'm talking about how political organisations marshall and present arguments.

    Edited by NickR
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    As I understand it the You Gov poll is to be released in the Sunday Times tomorrow, story will break this evening.

     

    Next Survation poll will be released in Daily Record on Thursday 11 September.

     

    Not sure where the mythical panelbase poll has vanished to...!

     

    I believe there's also to be a TNS poll next week too. Hopefully they haven't got a huge gap between feildwork and reporting this time.

     

    What have individual voters got to do with this? I'm talking about how political organisations marshall and present arguments.

     

    My mistake, I thought you were talking about YesScotland. Apologies.

     

    Individual voters are the ones manning stalls, chapping doors etc for Yes. Some support the SNP, some the Greens, some the SSP, some Solidarity, some Labour, some Conservative, Some liberal... Some are party members, most not in my experience.

     

    Tomorrow, a couple Mrs SS and I are friends with are coming round to ask me about the referendum. She's German, he's Irish and they've been in Scotland for just 1.5 years so not sure about the whole story and what to do. That's how this thing is developing - people talking to each other.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    This article in the Guardian makes mention of the forthcoming polls also suggests more than one poll out on Sunday.

     

    Reading between the lines this indicates a Yes lead.

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/05/britain-scotland-independence

     

    Well written article, some interesting reading around the emotional aspect / reaction from the perspective of the other countries in the Union.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    I don't deny there are exceptions. As a general rule, however, I think the main ones tend to use SNP arguments.

    What have individual voters got to do with this? I'm talking about how political organisations marshall and present arguments.

     

    The grassroots Yes organisations make use of a wide range of information/arguments from a variety of sources. My local Yes group is very non-political, you'd be extremely surprised at how non-political. It's all about Yes and the reasoning behind Yes, there is no SNP control and no cult of Salmond hero worship. A lot of unionists would be surprised to find that most Yes voters don't have posters of Alex and Nic on their walls :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    It is the pro-union campaign aided by the media who have made it 'all about Salmond/the SNP'.

     

    This may well lose them the referendum, particularly when it comes to the Labour vote. The Labour party has not listened to its own voters (indy and devo max people), just attacked the SNP.

     

    It's about Scotland.

     

    Although Yes supporters might have wished it was all about Salmond / Sturgeon as based on trust / satisfaction ratings you'd get a comfortable Yes.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    The grassroots Yes organisations make use of a wide range of information/arguments from a variety of sources. My local Yes group is very non-political, you'd be extremely surprised at how non-political. It's all about Yes and the reasoning behind Yes, there is no SNP control and no cult of Salmond hero worship. A lot of unionists would be surprised to find that most Yes voters don't have posters of Alex and Nic on their walls :)

    No, I wouldn't be surprised at all. And I didn't say there was SN control or a cult of Salmond hero worship.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    I wonder when (in the event of a YES vote) the first poll would be conducted regarding voter intention.

    Will we go through the same, excrutiating saga with Labour voters? Labour predicted to win in an independent Scotland and their voters to be lying...

    I wonder, even with PR, how much vote the minority parties will actually achieve. A member of the SSP was making points about equality, fairness etc but I can't help but feel his faith in an independent Scotland somehow changing it's voting intention and becoming fairly radical is misplaced.

    It would be very interesting anyway but I was just wondering what others on here predict?

    Personally, the SNP will still poll decent numbers (I'm thinking a term or two ahead here ie 2025-2030 time) Labour to also poll a big percentage. A moderate Tory party and other 'right' parties would basically take up the rest... Leaving little space for anything else. The Green Party maybe being the 4th biggest party at say 10%

    Just conjecture of course :)

    EDIT: http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/a-yes-vote-could-be-making-of-the-right-wing-in-scotland.23240613

    Edited by SW Saltire
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    If there was a small No victory, I would imagine the electorate would push for Devo Max by voting SNP in large numbers at the GE next year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    I wonder when (in the event of a YES vote) the first poll would be conducted regarding voter intention.

    Will we go through the same, excrutiating saga with Labour voters? Labour predicted to win in an independent Scotland and their voters to be lying...

    I wonder, even with PR, how much vote the minority parties will actually achieve. A member of the SSP was making points about equality, fairness etc but I can't help but feel his faith in an independent Scotland somehow changing it's voting intention and becoming fairly radical is misplaced.

    It would be very interesting anyway but I was just wondering what others on here predict?

    Personally, the SNP will still poll decent numbers (I'm thinking a term or two ahead here ie 2025-2030 time) Labour to also poll a big percentage. A moderate Tory party and other 'right' parties would basically take up the rest... Leaving little space for anything else. The Green Party maybe being the 4th biggest party at say 10%

    Just conjecture of course :)

     

    All depends how the first and second periods of governance go. If the economy suffers and if half the promises of the SNP fail to materialise, just as in every other country, Scotland would IMO turn to a different party. There is nothing etched in stone here and the idea that Scotland will always vote in socialist governments is unrealistic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     the idea that Scotland will always vote in socialist governments is unrealistic.

     

    I really hope that's the case being a economically centrist social democrat.

     

    If the parliament was veering to either extreme in terms of left and right I'd vote in a way to counter that. For me a good right/left balance is the best option.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

    Since, the 'right' got 27.7% in 2011 (I think) then that is almost enough with help from any centre parties to block 'left' policies.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    What if....

    ...the margin between yes and no is less than 10% say 53% no and 47% yes?

    Will that end the independence debate? I don't think it will, it is not decisive, I can see another referendum in a decade or so time if the SNP are in power despite talk that this is a one off.

    Peculiar things referenda because if it were 53% Yes, that would kill off the debate, the Yes people will say they have got their majority mandate and go ahead with independence but the other way around with 53% No, the Yes will still argue their cause and will want another referendum a few years down the line after they have "educated" the populace.

     

    A narrow No and another referendum is perfectly possible; depends on the appetite of the electorate for it.

     

    A narrow Yes and a referendum (in an independent Scotland) on re-joining the union is possible too; parties would just need to put than in manifestos. Although you'd imagine voters in the rUK would need to be consulted on Scotland re-joining through a referendum too.

     

    I say narrow when in fact margins do not preclude either option, just narrow would make both more likely.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    From the Independent, never has a newspaper title seemed so juxtaposed..

     

    This article to me is massively ironic, the inherent complete and utter bias a probable contributor to the position the author details.

     

    Losing Much ??

     

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11078776/Nows-the-time-to-stand-up-and-be-counted.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    From the Independent, never has a newspaper title seemed so juxtaposed..

     

    This article to me is massively ironic, the inherent complete and utter bias a probable contributor to the position the author details.

     

    Losing Much ??

     

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11078776/Nows-the-time-to-stand-up-and-be-counted.html

     

    Telegraph you mean.

     

    I'm wary of jumping the gun on any 'Yes lead' polls, but Cochers does seem to be very worried.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Thanks for correction, don't know how I managed to get them confused..

     

    Along with the cavalry of Labour MPs arriving. We are promised the following from UKIP

     

     

    post-7292-0-88815800-1409996496_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Thanks for correction, don't know how I managed to get them confused..

     

    Along with the cavalry of Labour MPs arriving. We are promised the following from UKIP

     

    Ahh, oor wee skipper. Check oot this rant:

     

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/05/scotland-ukip-alex-salmond_n_5770734.html?1409915478

     

    I'm slightly puzzled, as it's him that said Scotland didn't need immigration and should breed instead if it needs more people.

     

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/ukip-mep-wants-less-immigration-and-more-breeding-1-3423128

     

    Yet the biggest immigrant group to Scotland are people from England.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Clever wee vid that's going around.

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbW_AT64m8E

     

    'No cereal was eaten during the making of this film'  :D 

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    SS, very clever video.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    What is the situation regarding the church-state relationship assuming a yes vote? Will we see a wholly secular independent Scotland without any state privilege for a particular church or religion?

     

    At the moment the Church of Scotland’s position as a national church, with quasi-established status (although in a weaker form than the Church of England’s) is constitutionally defined by an Act passed in 1921 by the United Kingdom Parliament which would cease to apply after independence.

    Edited by knocker
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